Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Least Concern]

God I hate her so much. I mean don't get me wrong, I hate pretty much all of our politicians, but I find MTG excruciatingly annoying in particular.

I used to like her because like Trump, she pissed all the worst people off so much. But I feel like what her and some others have shown themselves to lack that Trump himself had is a sense of realpolitik to go along with the bluster, and that's frustrating.

The new Perun video is interesting. It outlines the dire straits the "peace dividend" put on the American weapons manufacturing capability, but on the whole it has an optimistic tone about what can be done to help resolve it, including the steps that are being done so far. I'm not totally confident the right changes can be made before it's too late for this conflict, but at least I have a little faith that we'll be a bit more prepared for the next one, God forbid.

 

[Ghostse]

What's the optimal solution to this conflict in your view? Ukraine cedes the territories in the east Russia claimed or what? Genuine question because I feel like that's the most likely outcome

Optimal: Russia goes back to 1992 borders, takes all the soviet hold over Russophones from Donbas (and Estonia/Latvia/Moldova/Lithuania/Georgia for good measure) so everyone gets what they want. Russia also withdraws from Ossetia and Moldova and generally stops wasting time and resources trying to bring back the Russian/Soviet empires, instead focusing on improving things for its citizens and stop being a kleptocracy.
Also keeps/strengthens their anti-fag/anti-tranny laws.

Realistic Optimal: The Donbros become a Special Autonomous Region, Crimea is leased to Russia for 99 years or some gay shit like that, Repartations to Ukraine classed as "Aid" or someshit.

Realistic Pessimistic Outcome: The Donbros being in some sort of weird fucking limbo state so Russia can restart the conflict later, the peace and new borders are had at the cost of Crimea.

Considering there's been at least three attacks on US embassies Iran has been involved with (the first one in Iran itself, the 1983 Beirut suicide bombing, and the one in Iraq Soleimani oversaw that lead to him transcending this earthly plane) I give approximately zero fucks about what Mossad makes happen inside theirs. Its not like this is the first group of people the Israelis have assassinated on Iranian soil either when you think about all the dead nuclear scientists, including the one who was ganked in a motorcycle drive by

Now I'm not saying you're wrong, but I guess what I've learned from GWOT is that while its cathartic to give the animals a taste of their own medicine, its a bit like pissing your pants in the snow as it usually just shows that you are no better than the animals. Attacks on invalid targets should be met with overwhelming response on valid targets (but no politician has the stomach for that).
Solomeni getting Salami'd being the exemplar.


Or i guess tl;dr Its Mossad, they could have gotten the fucks when they left.

 

[Vince McMahon]

realistic: russia at some point decides to freeze the conflict, front lines become the new de facto international border

Which means the war will happen again in 10 years, give or take, except Russians might actually take the lessons of 2022 into consideration. Though with Russians you can't really tell.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Footage of Russian Ural Zvezda-V trucks with counter-FPV screens used in assaults on Robotyne.

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Russian motorbike assault:

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They are relatively quiet and fast, good review.

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Various destroyed T-62:



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original video

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Russian golf cart uses some kind of APS to destroy an FPV drone. The poster speculates it was a mine.

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A desk in honour of an SMO fighter who stabbed a woman to death appeared in a school near Belgorod

Spoiler: tl note

"The Hero's desk is a pupil's desk with information about an honoured person, a hero, who is directly related to the school and has entered the history of the Fatherland and/or is a hero of our time, his photo, biography, heroic path.
A QR code for mobile devices is also placed at the desk, having scanned which a pupil will get to the official portal, where the information about the hero is presented.
The right to sit at such a desk is given to pupils who have successes in studies and take an active part in the life of the school."

Spoiler: Text

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[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Russian motorbike assault:
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They are relatively quiet and fast, good review.

Just like my heckin' Warhammer figureinos!:

As a kid, I always wondered why 40K-style assault bikes (as opposed to bikes used for pure logistics or special ops) weren't used in warfare, then I realized real warfare ought to rip apart bikes assaulting entrenched enemy positions. Turns out my childhood optimism was more correct than my present cynicism.
Another video of the bikers' tactics explained (with subtitles):

 

[teriyakiburns]

Another video of the bikers' tactics explained (with subtitles):

Fucking motorcycle cavalry charges. How long before they get those creepy quadrupedal robots out as mounts?

 

[Jewthulhu]

Which means the war will happen again in 10 years, give or take, except Russians might actually take the lessons of 2022 into consideration. Though with Russians you can't really tell.

It'll be curious if/how Russian doctrine will change. Russian doctrine has always made up for a relative lack in quality with pure quantity. This was a big deal during the Cold War, when you had "bean counters" paranoid about Soviet numbers while others were saying that NATO equipment and training easily outmatched Soviet equipment and training. If Ukraine is anything to go by, this is still the case. Russia's throwing mass numbers of disposable conscripts and equipment at the problem, while still only making small gains on a smaller country starved for equipment.

The thing is they're chewing through their surplus equipment, they're afraid of mass mobilization (because it will be really fucking unpopular), and going up against all of NATO is a completely different task than Ukraine. And they're not well able to switch to a more western doctrine of quality over quantity, as all their next-gen programs are being more or less shelved due to expense. I agree that Russia still dreams of "taking back" the Baltics etc., and are a real risk of starting a conflict with NATO post-Ukraine, but unless the people up top are seriously buying into their own propaganda, they have to know it won't go well.

 

[Vince McMahon]

I agree that Russia still dreams of "taking back" the Baltics etc., and are a real risk of starting a conflict with NATO post-Ukraine, but unless the people up top are seriously buying into their own propaganda, they have to know it won't go well.

The Ukrainian War was also supposed to be a stupid endeavour yet Monke went ahead and pressed on. There has been two years of stoking bitter people's blood appetites and 20 years of assuring them that they dindu nuffin they be good boys and shiet. They're going to try again whether they fail or win, because of the same thing as the Germans: they lost the first time, they got really poor and they found a convenient scapegoat for their troubles.

 

[Snekposter]

Or i guess tl;dr Its Mossad, they could have gotten the fucks when they left.

Counterargument: Its not about validity. Its about sending a message. Keep in mind that the Ayatollahs in charge of Iran don't exactly abide by Western norms. Even the Russians are better behaved towards their foes than the sandniggers are. Remember: you're dealing with people who see nothing wrong with using mass-murdering terrorist proxies who also hide their ammo dumps under schools and hospitals. The IRGC are some of the few people on the planet that make the CIA look less bad.

What's the optimal solution to this conflict in your view? Ukraine cedes the territories in the east Russia claimed or what? Genuine question because I feel like that's the most likely outcome

Russia gets Crimea, hands the Donbass back to Ukraine, and pays them off in some manner for the war and to ensure a steady supply of water for Crimea, as well as a series of purely voluntary (and I mean it) population transfers. Seems to me to be the least likely for further casus belli by either side since it somewhat alleviates matters and takes away an excuse from Putin. Can't go to war to protect the Russian speakers in the Donbass if they all moved to Russia, after all. It also paves the way for Ukraine to enter NATO given the lack of territorial issues, but I'd hold that in abeyance until a later time to give Putin time to either cool off or die of chronic alcoholism.

Ideally Putin fucks off behind the pre-2014 borders, but the chances of that happening are... slim.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Ideally Putin fucks off behind the pre-2014 borders, but the chances of that happening are... slim.

Barring some kind of incredible collapse on par with the USSR I'd say so too. Until and unless that happens Russia will waste as much money, lives and equipment as necessary to at least get some strip of devastated, useless wasteland out of this.

 

[Ghostse]

Various destroyed T-62:

Wait that's impossible. People Vatniggers with cat and beetlejuice avatars swore up and down the T-62 pictures were NAFO cope and they totally weren't going to be used on the front lines except as VEIDs to own the hohols.

Just like my heckin' Warhammer figureinos!:
View attachment 5909059
As a kid, I always wondered why 40K-style assault bikes (as opposed to bikes used for pure logistics or special ops) weren't used in warfare, then I realized real warfare ought to rip apart bikes assaulting entrenched enemy positions. Turns out my childhood optimism was more correct than my present cynicism.
Another video of the bikers' tactics explained (with subtitles):
View attachment 5909070

tl;dr: This won't last, its only marginally effective now because of the WWI levels of moonscaping.

Their accuracy on the move will be abysmal, and they are relying on pure speed for protection. This only will sort of work now because any significant obstacles will have been flattened by shelling, and the area they are fighting in now has lots of elevation changes that allow riders to move without getting mowed down.

 

[mindlessobserver]

While I don't want to think or say this as It saddens me for Ukraine I think there's going to have to be a point of realisation and perspective. The west has completely failed Ukraine and more and more it's becoming apparant that there's only going to be enough support to hold on for a tiny bit longer, this summer advancement (if Russians do it) is going to be the ultimate test for Ukraines survival.

Macron has made noises if it looks like Russia is going to have significant breakthrough that the French may intervene on their own initiative like its 1853 all over again. But it remains to be seen if that is more then noise.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

Use of motorcycles and bicycles strictly for mobility of getting from one point to another is a sound and proven solution. Something even AFU's special forces does with electric bicycles. However if some Russian commanding asshat decides to do a Russian knockoff of 1982 Megaforce, that will be a terribly bad idea. Although less inflammably gay without the spandex.

 

[mindlessobserver]

But combat Motorcycles are so fucking cool

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Russel Bentley, Texan ex-convict, pro-Russian fighter & propaganda shill, found beheaded:
Archive

Texan Russell Bentley was found decapitated in Petrovskiy district of Donetsk (temporary occupied territory of Ukraine) at 10 AM, 14 April 2024.
Beside his beheaded corpse were found Bentley’s passport with registration in Donetsk, Makarov pistol, credit cards and his wallet.
He used to fight for the pro-Russian militia battalion “Vostok”.
Russell Bentley went missing on 8 April 2024.
Russell Bentley, 63, who is married to a Russian woman and has a passport from his adopted country, disappeared after an attack by Defense Force of Ukraine, according to reports. He was last seen in Donetsk on 8 April before moving in an ‘unknown direction’, and his current location is unknown.
Bentley has posted that he was ‘heading west with the “Liberators of Ukraine”. We may stop in Kiev, we may stop on the English Channel. We may liberate the USA.’
In 1999 he escaped from a minimum security US facility where he was being held for drug trafficking. I didn’t have to dig a tunnel or take anybody hostage. But I did escape from prison’, Bentley said. He was later captured and put in a high s ecurity facility to finish his sentence.
He became a fighter for pro-Putin forces in 2014 after breaking up with his yoga-instructor girlfriend, though he spoke almost no Russian.
He called himself the information warrior and had worked for a media outlet affiliated with Sputnik, a Russian state media outlet.

I was wondering what happened to that cringy fuck-knuckle, and I'm honestly surprised he lasted this long.

For the uninitiated:

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

It's all so tiresome...
House Speaker Mike Johnson is taking complicated approach to passing aid for Ukraine and Israel

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[-Jack-]

Macron has made noises if it looks like Russia is going to have significant breakthrough that the French may intervene on their own initiative like its 1853 all over again. But it remains to be seen if that is more then noise.

That’s a lot of noise. Thats all countries do. Look at whats foing on with Israel and Iran. Its tom and jerry style. Im sorry but Russia will get its way because of money. Thats the sad reality. This isnt a total war game, its real life and a retarded chess puzzle game of geo-politics where money and influence have the most power.

 

[TJT]

Drone cages on vehicles are innovating very rapidly. Interesting seeing these kind of developments happen in real time.

 

[World in Scarlet]

There's been a new article on the peace negotiations in early 2022. It's pretty informative.
It details that, contrary to statements made by various participants, the discussions were at an extremely early stage and no issue was even close to being resolved. There was not even any discussion whatsoever about borders.
It gives a number of reasons for why the talks failed:
- large Russian defeats on the battlefield and the prospect of western support altering the negotiation position in favor of Ukraine
- discovery of atrocities committed by Russian troops in liberated territories
- categorical refusal of Western governments to commit to any security guarantees for Ukraine, meaning there was no reason to believe Russians wouldn't just re-invade in a few years
- fundamental disagreements about the nature of post-war Ukraine (Russian demands were demilitarization and control of various aspects of Ukrainian domestic politics from Moscow)
The conclusion of the article is bizarre though. After detailing the crimes, betrayals and dishonesties of Putin, and the fact that there was no agreement on anything really, it states that "Putin and Zelensky were willing to consider extraordinary compromises to end the war". Except they clearly weren't? Ukrainians came to the table with requests for ceasefire and humanitarian corridors, the Russians with demands for a complete surrender of Ukrainian sovereignty. The topics that were drafted back and forth were pointless minutiae, according to their own article.

Spoiler: text

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[Pocket Dragoon]

The face of exhaustion & having no fucks left to give, along with the knowledge that it's not going to end anytime soon:

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Russian commander/officer urinates on soldier who refuses to fight:

That's the least of his troubles; being pissed on is probably just the prelude to more degenerate, violent persuading.

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Edit: this is cool; an NLAW being extracted from it's damaged tube, to be recycled into an FPV warhead.