Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Former President Trump on Friday signaled an openness to Republicans approving additional aid for Ukraine in its war against Russia if it came in the form of a loan.

“We’re looking at it right now, and they’re talking about it, and we’re thinking about making it in the form of a loan instead of just a gift,” Trump said during an appearance alongside Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago estate.

“We keep handing out gifts of billions and billions of dollars, and we’ll take a look at it,” Trump continued. “But much more importantly to me is the fact that Europe has to step up, and they have to give money. They have to equalize. If they don’t equalize I’m very upset about it, because they’re affected much more than we are.”

Trump has for months expressed skepticism about providing U.S. assistance to Ukraine in its war against Russia, arguing support for Ukraine is not a vital American interest and that Europe should be providing the bulk of the assistance. His views have been deeply influential among his allies in Congress, making passage of Ukraine aid in the GOP-controlled House difficult.

The former president’s stance has created a political minefield for Johnson as he looks to help Kyiv’s beleaguered forces. The U.S. has provided billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine in the form of military and humanitarian assistance, but it ran out of congressionally approved funds late last year.

The Biden White House has for months pleaded with lawmakers to pass more aid for Ukraine as its forces struggle to fend off Russian attacks. President Biden and others have repeatedly argued that supporting Ukraine is in the interest of the United States, because if Russia defeats Ukraine it could invade a NATO ally that would draw American forces into a wider conflict.

The Senate last month passed a $95 billion national security funding package, which included $60 billion in aid for Ukraine. But Johnson has refused to put the bill on the floor as Trump allies in the House have dug in against providing more aid to Kyiv.

Johnson for months has said the House would consider foreign aid in due time, pushing back the timeline for other must-pass matters, like government funding. But the Speaker narrowed in on a schedule last weekend, announcing that the House would consider Ukraine aid “right after” the two-week Easter recess.

Democrats in both chambers have suggested they’re willing to support Ukraine aid in the form of a loan if it can break the impasse, even if it’s not their first choice.
Trump supports Johnson and may accept UA aid as loan - Hill

Perhaps even Trump tires of political midgets forgetting he's the GOP decision-maker on UA and FISA. It's as clear as muck but unfortunately fully relevant until Euro leaders fully back their rhetoric and promises.

E-Vatniks are trying to claim it's a Taurus missile instead:
I think I'm not pushing beyond the evidence in suggest Scholz remains in cowardly lion mode and those aren't Taurus missiles. Germany does send aid, but not what's really needed.
 
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While I don't want to think or say this as It saddens me for Ukraine I think there's going to have to be a point of realisation and perspective. The west has completely failed Ukraine and more and more it's becoming apparant that there's only going to be enough support to hold on for a tiny bit longer, this summer advancement (if Russians do it) is going to be the ultimate test for Ukraines survival.

Maybe I'm being cynical, pessimistic but it's hard not to be when you look at global politics and it's retarded as fuck chess game they are all playing with proxies, tit for tat war threats. Give me as many autist reacts you want but it would be more helpful for someone who is more knowledge, educated on this war/politics to quote/tell me- but I think that Ukraine will join NATO, it will possibly join Europe. But it will be only the Kyiv region left. Russia doesn't want a large Ukraine, a powerful Ukraine to join NATO/European union, not right on their doorstep. However, I believe that Ukraine will become merely a one regional province/or the western regions of Ukraine and become merely just a buffer zone for NATO/EU and Russia.

This map is ridiculous, but the more this war goes on the more I believe this is what they want and will get or a different variation.
 

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Germany to send Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine
Germany agreed to send a Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Saturday
The move by Germany came after a telephone call between Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Saturday
Zelenskyy . . . thanked Scholz for "the decision to deliver an additional Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine, as well as air-defense missiles for existing systems.”
 
For those too smart to be bothered to keep up with the latest mid-east slap fights:

tl;dr, 7 Iranian military officers got murked in the Iranian embassy in Syria. These (or atleast one of them) were very likely Iranian liaisons with Hamas. No one is saying it was Mossad but come the fuck on, everyone knows.
personal note: On one hand, fuck Iran. On the other hand, in the literal fucking embassy. This is why Hitler was right
Iran in response sent a flight of drones at Israel.

So question for everyone keeping up on the topic and not guzzling Putin's slav cum:
When Iran gets curbed back to the times of the Prophet (pbuh), how do you think that will that affect Russia's ability to procure arms?
 
Obama foreign policy was shit.
My boy Mitt was right.
I remember the Dems excoriating him for his "Cold War era foreign policy".
I mean on one hand they are M60A3s.
On the other hand they'd be going up against T-62s and T-72s. T-62/72 Manned by Slavs, mind you. How much tank do you really need?
The Marine M60A3's did a solid job in Desert Storm, and its not like Russian armor tech, doctrine, or training has progressed all that much since then. They can fire current-gen 105mm rounds including darts, so just stick a CITV on there and some 2nd gen thermals for the gunner and driver, and maybe some ARAT in case of HEAT and you're solid.
I don't know. I'm afraid that comes off a bit copey. How do we know it was a scrapyard? Is it normal to organize equipment in scrapyards in tidy rows and columns? In this sort of everything-we've-got conflict, would any form of artillery more modern than bamboo tubes really be worthless?
The D-20 dates back to WW2, is about as accurate as you'd expect, these have been rusting outdoors for years, and most importantly for an artillery piece they use 152mm ammo that Ukraine ran out of in the first few weeks and no longer has in inventory or a reliable source of replacement for.
Perhaps even Trump tires of political midgets forgetting he's the GOP decision-maker on UA and FISA. It's as clear as muck but unfortunately fully relevant until Euro leaders fully back their rhetoric and promises.
That is something that I feel gets overlooked here. For the first time in what has to be close to 30 years the Republicans in office are being held accountable, by Trump on one end and a populist base in revolt on the other. They don't know how to act when their balls are in a vise because its all been for show until now. So Trump has to remind them just who exactly is in charge every now and then by tightening the screws up a little.
When Iran gets curbed back to the times of the Prophet (pbuh), how do you think that will that affect Russia's ability to procure arms?
It will fucking suck. There's that Shaheed factory in Russia but I'm pretty sure its dependent on a combination of Iranian origin parts and Rotax engines stolen out of Western hangars.
personal note: On one hand, fuck Iran. On the other hand, in the literal fucking embassy. This is why Hitler was right
Considering there's been at least three attacks on US embassies Iran has been involved with (the first one in Iran itself, the 1983 Beirut suicide bombing, and the one in Iraq Soleimani oversaw that lead to him transcending this earthly plane) I give approximately zero fucks about what Mossad makes happen inside theirs. Its not like this is the first group of people the Israelis have assassinated on Iranian soil either when you think about all the dead nuclear scientists, including the one who was ganked in a motorcycle drive by.
 
The USMC M60A3's already had 2nd gen thermals for the gunner and tank commander during Desert Storm. By now wouldn't it be at least 4th or 5th generation thermals available
Na, I think we're still just on 3rd gen, and besides, these are Spanish models that probably aren't upgraded to the same standards as US ones were, and yes, I am saying that Desert Storm tech is good enough for what Ukraine is facing.
 
William Spaniel on the slowness of the Russian advance, say 0.02% in Feb, 0.01% in March. Sees an upside to the very limited advancement during the Summer Offensive has it has meant Ukraine has far greater reserves of forces. 30,000 casualties and 400 tanks and IFVs were lost by the invader in taking Avdiivka, yet NATOs Supreme Commander says Russia's Army is 15% larger than before the invasion, but WS wonders if that force is at a comparable level to the force they started in Feb '22. Sees very little territory changing hands so far with 10.75% taken in Feb '22, 7.88% the next month, with Ukraine retrieving 5.54% in April. After that the lines barely change. Ukraine seems to be doing a good job of holding and exacting casualties.
Something to keep in mind is disruptions in Russia's supply chain affected even little things like ball bearings, which resulted in Russia having to go back to older designs of poorer quality tanks to produce. So equipment they're using is generally poorer than what they started out with.

On the other hand, the US mostly has to be worried about whether those that produce those minor parts like fasteners, nuts and bolts or whatever can produce more to help meet the demand of the weapons people like Lockheed that are wanting to produce more themselves. It's hard for them to ramp up production unless they get long term contracts that help fund it, which has been getting held up for assorted reasons.
 
Something to keep in mind is disruptions in Russia's supply chain affected even little things like ball bearings, which resulted in Russia having to go back to older designs of poorer quality tanks to produce. So equipment they're using is generally poorer than what they started out with.

On the other hand, the US mostly has to be worried about whether those that produce those minor parts like fasteners, nuts and bolts or whatever can produce more to help meet the demand of the weapons people like Lockheed that are wanting to produce more themselves. It's hard for them to ramp up production unless they get long term contracts that help fund it, which has been getting held up for assorted reasons.
Indeed, Europeans, in particular, and American makers have to reactivate whole supply chains that have largrly withered. Fasteners, washers, nuts, bolts, rivets need to be made in at least the region, not Red China. Worker skills also have withered so some time will be needed to reach the product levels through training and deployment for ongoing things like massed artillery.

European leaders are finding that they cannot rely solely on Uncle Sam for the small stuff, the consummables, while selling selling over priced aircraft and vehicles to pet dictators or civilianized firearms to Americans. US leaders can no longer coast along. Iran, Russia and Red China have put great thought into harming the US by attacking its allies and corrupting its politics.

Na, I think we're still just on 3rd gen, and besides, these are Spanish models that probably aren't upgraded to the same standards as US ones were, and yes, I am saying that Desert Storm tech is good enough for what Ukraine is facing.

Indeed, barring some tech vanguards like drones (and even UA has found old Soviet stuff of use against pathetic Russian air defence) Gulf War I stuff in regular support is all that's needed. Existing ideas like smaller quantities of newer Korean or French systems for assessment and prototyping helps too.
 
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What's the optimal solution to this conflict in your view? Ukraine cedes the territories in the east Russia claimed or what? Genuine question because I feel like that's the most likely outcome
extremely wishful daydreaming: russia retreats to pre 2014 borders
wishful daydreaming: russia retreats to pre 2022 borders, crimea and DPR/LPR are de facto russian territory
realistic: russia at some point decides to freeze the conflict, front lines become the new de facto international border
disaster: russia successfully takes the whole territory of the four oblasts it formally claims (luhansk, donetsk, zaporizhia, kherson)
complete catastrophe: russia takes all territory east of the dnipro
 
extremely wishful daydreaming: russia retreats to pre 2014 borders
wishful daydreaming: russia retreats to pre 2022 borders, crimea and DPR/LPR are de facto russian territory
realistic: russia at some point decides to freeze the conflict, front lines become the new de facto international border
disaster: russia successfully takes the whole territory of the four oblasts it formally claims (luhansk, donetsk, zaporizhia, kherson)
complete catastrophe: russia takes all territory east of the dnipro
Two seems likeliest, and possibly what his advisors urge, like Patrushev, but Putin seems to have gone into full believing his bullshit mode. I see this war going on for good while. Later on a trajectory towards a medium term outcome like pause will become clear. The pace of Russian advance is on a geological time scale, so I don't see anything radical for now.


Anyhow, hiven the deliberate and primary targeting of civilians, it should be clear that Putin is a dime store Stalin who wishes to obliterate the Ukrainian identity. Given the extraordinary nature of a partly European nuke armed country (albeit with most of Europe's Moslems) invading another sovereign European state, predictions themselves are wishful thinking.

Squeaker Johnson is a silly man or cynically just doesn't give a shit. Iran the sponsor of HAMAS is a close ally of Putin. The form of swarm attack almost mimics what happens now in Ukraine.

Ryan McBeth on the basics of supporting UA as he tells it to Newsmax. WW3 is already here. The choice is to make it harder by not backing Ukraine.

 
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And as Johnson on Sunday readied to advance the aid, Greene said on X that it was “antisemitic to make Israeli aid contingent” on aid for Ukraine.
God I hate her so much. I mean don't get me wrong, I hate pretty much all of our politicians, but I find MTG excruciatingly annoying in particular.
 
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