Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[‘84 Fuckerbird Trans Man]

It's too early for the lakhta faggots to relax - if the Soviets say something, the opposite is usually true.

It worked with everything Putin has said about the war - Russia will not invade Ukraine (it invaded Ukraine), Russia will not annex any land or force itself onto anyone (it did annex land and it did force its rule and retarded schizofascism), there will be no call-up of reservists (it started in September 2022), operation is proceeding per scheduled plans (it does not), there are only ~5,000 KIAs among the Russian army (there are at least 50,000 verified irrecoverable personnel losses, and allegedly over 500,000 in total so far), etc etc.

KGB agents and their subordinates always lie, it's what they know and can.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Forcing Ukraine to negotiate salami slicing its territory away to Russia isn't flying with Ukrainians, England, France and Eastern Europeans as they know Russia is a bad faith actor.

It shouldn't fly with Americans either, because it seems that being across Bering Strait oceans away from Russia insulates us from their "just use military force to steal land and kill/rape/steal anyone who doesn't like it" antics.
That and "oh if you invade your neighbor, we'll just sit back and shit our pants" isn't exactly a great message to send to China; but yet here we are...

 

[Useful_Mistake]

While I certainly think it is an important conversation to have, you all have to resolve amongst yourselves if that is something you want to have. To that end; anyone who wants to have that conversation rate this post with a "agree", if you don't "disagree." I'll check in in 24 hours and abide by the thread's decision. As a preliminary matter, I have restored the deleted comments.

Very well. Considering the response, I will not delete similar comments in the feature. @Francis York Morgan , assign reports from this thread to me, please, when you encounter any

 

[mindlessobserver]

All Russian officials are on the take. I think at this point Putin requires all his flunkies to take bribes. That way when he wants to get rid of them he has a ready made and provably true reason to do so.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Belbek airfield, Crimea got ATACMSed last night:

Fighterbomber is crestfallen...:

*I will post images of the destroyed S-400 battery, but thumbnails aren't working atm, so they will come later.

 

[mindlessobserver]

S400 destroyed by the missile it's supposed to be able to shoot down. How embarrassing.

 

[‘84 Fuckerbird Trans Man]

All Russian officials are on the take. I think at this point Putin requires all his flunkies to take bribes. That way when he wants to get rid of them he has a ready made and provably true reason to do so.

In 2016, they arrested some puny police colonel for extorting a 1.4 billion ruble bribe, name's Dmitry Zakharchenko. At that time, this was the equivalent of over 23 million US dollars.

In the interview, he openly said he's been buying real estate and cars for himself, his family and friends like mad. He had whole apartments serve as cash safes. He eventually ran out of ideas what to spend the dirty money on, and he couldn't get out either, because partaking in corruption is a requirement to get anywhere in Putin's ministries, on all levels, from beat cop to top checkist.

This serves two purposes - to generate revenue for the higher ups, all the way to Putin himself (that Gelendzhik complex Rotenberg said was totally not Putin's palace, but a luxury hotel he promised would open in 2023, won't build itself!), and to keep everyone on the Presidential Administration's leash to ensure loyalty and to have a way of easily getting rid of someone, if deemed necessary.

FSB investigation "found" (more like, looked up in the kompromat folder they had) 27 units of real estate (13 apartments, 14 parking garage spots) in elite Moscow closed communities in his and his family's property, four luxury cars, gold irons, cash totalling 8.5 billion rubles (over 141 million USD), all sorts of expensive junk!

And that's just some bumfuck, what-the-fuck-is-his name COLONEL OF THE POLICE, not even a General, and only what the FSB disclosed to the public (who knows what kind of "evidence" slipped past registration and ended up in someone's pockets)! This should give you some idea how bloated Russia's top officials' wallets and accounts are!

This year, that whooping record of a 1.4 billion bribe was broken by an officer of a classified MVD division (Special Technical Measures Berau) who took a 5 billion ruble bribe (over 55 million USD) and fled to the UAE, name's Georgiy Satyukov, rank unknown.

Putin's government is totally and utterly corrupt, corruption is the whole reason people join United Russia, MVD, MFA, FSB and countless more bodies and ministries. When State Duma "senators" possess real estate they'd need to work for 200 years to buy legally with their (already bloated) legal wages, it's not a bug, it's a feature!

But go on, MAGAtards, Putin verstehers, commies, nazis, and all the other useful fucking idiots, tell me how corrupt Ukraine is and how they totally should surrender and be at mercy of Russian mafia that sits in the Kremlin!

 

[DumbDude43]

This serves two purposes - to generate revenue for the higher ups, all the way to Putin himself (that Gelendzhik complex Rotenberg said was totally not Putin's palace, but a luxury hotel he promised would open in 2023, won't build itself!)

the second purpose is probably control
fsb keeps track of all this corruption, so they are basically sitting on a big pile of evidence, always available to use as leverage against pretty much anybody of importance, so they can make people do their bidding very fast, very quietly, and with virtually no risk of blowback.
like, if you send chekists to beat up everybody who doesn't do what you want, that's a bad look.
but if you threaten to prosecute him for corruption instead, corruption that he knows is real because he has benefited greatly from it, then he has no leg to stand on, no moral high ground, and because you have receipts to prove his corruption nobody will listen to his complaints about political pressure.

 

[East_Clintwood]

S400 destroyed by the missile it's supposed to be able to shoot down. How embarrassing.

Clearly it had just run out of ammo from shooting down so much Ukrainian stuff:

Russian air defense forces shot down a Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter jet and 40 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the past day, the ministry reported.


"Air defense capabilities shot down a Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 plane, 40 unmanned aerial vehicles, four US-made HARM anti-radar missiles, 12 US-manufactured ATACMS tactical missiles and Tochka-U missiles and 45 US-made HIMARS rockets along with Uragan and Olkha rockets," the ministry said.

https://tass.com/politics/1788459

Goddamn I love TASS sometimes.

 

[T O X I C S L U D G E]

Clearly it had just run out of ammo from shooting down so much Ukrainian stuff:

https://tass.com/politics/1788459

Goddamn I love TASS sometimes.

TASS is better satire than The Onion

 

[mindlessobserver]

Didn't see anyone post this, so posting it now. It's from May 2, but fairly relevant given recent developments.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/2/frances-macron-doesnt-rule-out-troops-for-ukraine#:~:text=French%20President%20Emmanuel%20Macron%20said,Kyiv%20made%20such%20a%20request.

Key takeaways, Emmanuel Macron when pressed if he would deploy the French Army to Ukraine refused to say no, and further added that if Russia achieved a breakthrough and Ukraine asked for direct assistance, France would have to address the issue. Still lots of weasel wiggle room for him, buts its way more strident then anyone else. And unlike the rest of Europe, France actually could jump fairly quickly to arrest a potential collapse of the Ukrainian lines.

It all paints a pretty strident picture that this summer is going to be a decisive moment in the war, especially with Russia apparently finally throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine. Third years tend to be really fun in Great Power wars. During World War 1, the Third Year was when Germany started unrestricted submarine warfare on US shipping and sent the Zimmerman Telegram, leading to the US Intervention. Also, the third year of World War 2 saw the start of Operation Barbarossa, Pearl Harbor and Germany again attacking US Shipping unrestricted.

By year 3 of Great Power conflicts, the belligerent parties start losing restraint and escalation ladders that were studiously not climbed up to the third year start getting climbed rapidly. I expect the Ukrainian response will be more attacks on Russian Territory. If things get even more tense, its not outside the realm of possibility for the Ukrainians to invade Russia North of Kiev to open up a new front in the Bryansk direction in order to force Putin to draw troops away from Kharkiv.

Part of the reason Blinken was in Kiev this was to tell them they are free to attack Russia proper with everything they've been given.

https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-up-to-ukraine-if-it-decides-to-use-us-weapons-to-strike-inside-russia/

In other news, the political deadlock on mass mobilization in Ukraine broke in the Rada. The legislature passed a law requiring all men of military age to register for mobilization, and lays the ground work to draft 500,000 new soldiers.

 

[WhiteNight]

Part of the reason Blinken was in Kiev this was to tell them they are free to attack Russia proper with everything they've been given.

https://kyivindependent.com/blinken...es-to-use-us-weapons-to-strike-inside-russia/

This headline really looks misleading compared to the body of the article. It seems to conflate Blinken saying it's up to Ukraine whether to strike inside Russia ("We've not enabled or encouraged strikes outside of Ukraine, but ultimately, Ukraine has to make decisions for itself about how it's going to conduct this war."), with using American or other western weapons to strike Russia. The first part pertains to, for example, the oil refinery strikes, which American officials have repeatedly said they do not encourage or endorse (but they haven't said they oppose either). But that is with Ukrainian drones, not American weapons. Hence the statement that they're not "enabling" them.

Ukraine is still in a frustrating situation where cluster bombs and other western lethal aid cannot be used against troops massing right over the border in Russia.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukraine is still in a frustrating situation where cluster bombs and other western lethal aid cannot be used against troops massing right over the border in Russia.

I think the current Kharkiv campaign is going to change this calculation. For good or ill. The simple truth is that in 2022 Kharkiv Counter Offensive there was nothing standing in the way of the Ukrainian Army and Belgorod but an absolutely shattered Russian column in complete route with no fuel and ammunition. That and an arbitrary international border with the implicit threat of nukes, world war 3, and all that jazz. Without all the Great Power Machinations, this current fight would be less about Russia trying to slice off more of Ukraine, and more about them trying to retake Russian Territory they lost.

The restraint shown in 2022 was based solely on the assumption that Russia could still be brought to terms. Now it seems that Putin cannot negotiate in any way that is not him being the total victor of the conflict. Which means the Russian Border can longer be limitation on Ukrainian military interaction with the Russian Army. They are clearly using it as some impervious shield to prepare further invasions into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine must be permitted to carry the war into Russia itself as consequence.

 

[Sargon's wife's son]

I think the current Kharkiv campaign is going to change this calculation. For good or ill. The simple truth is that in 2022 Kharkiv Counter Offensive there was nothing standing in the way of the Ukrainian Army and Belgorod but an absolutely shattered Russian column in complete route with no fuel and ammunition. That and an arbitrary international border with the implicit threat of nukes, world war 3, and all that jazz. Without all the Great Power Machinations, this current fight would be less about Russia trying to slice off more of Ukraine, and more about them trying to retake Russian Territory they lost.

The restraint shown in 2022 was based solely on the assumption that Russia could still be brought to terms. Now it seems that Putin cannot negotiate in any way that is not him being the total victor of the conflict. Which means the Russian Border can longer be limitation on Ukrainian military interaction with the Russian Army. They are clearly using it as some impervious shield to prepare further invasions into Ukrainian territory. Ukraine must be permitted to carry the war into Russia itself as consequence.

In order to do that they'd have to be not being pushed back on absolutely all fronts I'm sorry the winning guys just like the Russians are totally winning when they lost one of the battle cruisers which is your replaceable what's with middle easterners an eastern Europeans lying about winning and losing wars it's just an inability to be honest

 

[mindlessobserver]

In order to do that they'd have to be not being pushed back on absolutely all fronts I'm sorry the winning guys just like the Russians are totally winning when they lost one of the battle cruisers which is your replaceable what's with middle easterners an eastern Europeans lying about winning and losing wars it's just an inability to be honest

Could you please reframe this reply into a coherent sentence?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Could you please reframe this reply into a coherent sentence?

I will give it a shot (also mindless, please stop this random capitalization; eg, Border, Territory, Counter Offensive are not capitalized in English). Also keep in mind I am not making this statement, @Sargon's wife's son is, I do not necessarily agree with it.

In order to attack within Russia the Ukraine would have to be able to repel attacks along the front line by the RuAF. I am sorry the AFU are (not) the winning army. Just as Russians are totally losing when they lost one of their battle cruisers (which is replaceable).​

​

What's with Middle Easterners and Eastern Europeans lying about winning while losing wars. It's just an inability to be honest.​

Now I would like to point out the Kharkov defense lines are collapsing, their soldiers are surrendering and most of it is due to the Kharkov defensive fortifications funds having been embezzled; thus, very few fortifications actually exist. Ukrainians AFU soldiers are saying this, POWs as well as those still fighting. How much this has affected the AFU elsewhere remains to be seen.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Now I would like to point out the Kharkov defense lines are collapsing, their soldiers are surrendering and most of it is due to the Kharkov defensive fortifications funds having been embezzled; thus, very few fortifications actually exist

There is a counterpoint to this. Russian artillery within Belgorod Oblast targeted any heavy machinery being brought foreword to fortify the border. Which jives with the last year of what could be charitably called artillery duels along the Kharkiv-Belgorod front.

As for a complete collapse of the Front, that does remain to be seen since this wasn't a front until 3 days ago. There was after all that unwritten rule that Russia itself is not a theater of war and that the conflict will focus solely on Ukraine and it's occupied territory.

The fun thing about unwritten rules is that they can be broken at any moment. And make no mistake Russia initiating another invasion of Ukraine from the Belgorod direction is a major escalation. Pretty much the largest escalation left Russia can resort too short of using WMDs. Russian territory is now part of the war formally going foreword.

If I was a Vatnik within 30 kilometers of Ukraine I would start packing bags. The US secretary of state just told zelensky it's fire at will with all the 155mm and ATACMs being delivered.

More importasty, the US and Europe are growing tired of entertaining Putins revanchism. Two years of nuclear blackmail is wearing thin and minds are starting to focus on what happens next if Putin is allowed to get what he wants this time. Better to body the Russian bear now while it's wounded, rather then wait for it to recover and come back stronger and enriched from its victories.

Tick tock...tick......tock........tick

Time has run out for Russia. They had three months to score a fait accompli or 2 years to come to terms.

Both time lines are now closed. now either Ukraine wins victory in this coming year and holds the line, or Russia goes to war with Europe.

It's pretty much a binary solution set to how this war will end at this point because Russia winning outright is no longer in the cards. Either Ukraine wins on its own, or Russia fights the west and may God help us all.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

snip

I was fixing Sargon's post and referred to the Kharkov Oblast situation as perhaps his reason for posting it, nothing more. Back to the regular scheduled programming.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

In 2016, they arrested some puny police colonel for extorting a 1.4 billion ruble bribe, name's Dmitry Zakharchenko. At that time, this was the equivalent of over 23 million US dollars.

In the interview, he openly said he's been buying real estate and cars for himself, his family and friends like mad. He had whole apartments serve as cash safes. He eventually ran out of ideas what to spend the dirty money on, and he couldn't get out either, because partaking in corruption is a requirement to get anywhere in Putin's ministries, on all levels, from beat cop to top checkist.

This serves two purposes - to generate revenue for the higher ups, all the way to Putin himself (that Gelendzhik complex Rotenberg said was totally not Putin's palace, but a luxury hotel he promised would open in 2023, won't build itself!), and to keep everyone on the Presidential Administration's leash to ensure loyalty and to have a way of easily getting rid of someone, if deemed necessary.

FSB investigation "found" (more like, looked up in the kompromat folder they had) 27 units of real estate (13 apartments, 14 parking garage spots) in elite Moscow closed communities in his and his family's property, four luxury cars, gold irons, cash totalling 8.5 billion rubles (over 141 million USD), all sorts of expensive junk!

And that's just some bumfuck, what-the-fuck-is-his name COLONEL OF THE POLICE, not even a General, and only what the FSB disclosed to the public (who knows what kind of "evidence" slipped past registration and ended up in someone's pockets)! This should give you some idea how bloated Russia's top officials' wallets and accounts are!

This year, that whooping record of a 1.4 billion bribe was broken by an officer of a classified MVD division (Special Technical Measures Berau) who took a 5 billion ruble bribe (over 55 million USD) and fled to the UAE, name's Georgiy Satyukov, rank unknown.

Putin's government is totally and utterly corrupt, corruption is the whole reason people join United Russia, MVD, MFA, FSB and countless more bodies and ministries. When State Duma "senators" possess real estate they'd need to work for 200 years to buy legally with their (already bloated) legal wages, it's not a bug, it's a feature!

But go on, MAGAtards, Putin verstehers, commies, nazis, and all the other useful fucking idiots, tell me how corrupt Ukraine is and how they totally should surrender and be at mercy of Russian mafia that sits in the Kremlin!

Worth mentioning, corruption isn't just bribes. Taxpayer money finds its ways in the pockets of various government officials and their friends through government contracts and other manipulations in the amounts that would make your hair stand.

In other news, the political deadlock on mass mobilization in Ukraine broke in the Rada. The legislature passed a law requiring all men of military age to register for mobilization, and lays the ground work to draft 500,000 new soldiers.

I feel bad for Ukrainian men who just wants to sit this one out, despite understanding that their government is entirely justified in doing this (historically speaking, being invaded like this usually had the entire nation mobilize in order to fight back, but these are supposedly gentler times).
It's one of the most horrible things that could happen to a person, your agency being taken away, your life essentially becoming a commodity for someone else to utilize. However noble the cause might be, we only have one life, and it's too high a price to demand of someone.

None of this would be happening if not for Putin. So many people were put in this position because of the war he started, absolute fucking travesty. There's no words to describe disdain I feel toward Putin and everyone who enabled him to do this.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I couldn't find if this was posted already, but here's a decent video on the evolution of the turtle tanks.

Featuring something I hadn't seen yet, a completely coped-out MT-LB: