i appreciate the skepticism since so many people really are letting their confirmation bias and groupthink run wild here, but i nevertheless disagree with your pessimism.
Is this case dependent on April, the drunk streams, and the powdered donut nose?
We can only hope that April provided reliable information before she was arrested. It's strange, yet perhaps a good sign, that she was released so quickly. Anyway, Nick will claim that the drugs belonged to April and Kayla. Kayla is so delusional she might even be manipulated into supporting that claim. She's likely suicidal atp. I hope April was smart enough to have video or audio evidence of Nick's direct involvement.
no. the case is not dependent on that. only the search warrant was
partially dependent on that, and as has been repeated many times at this point, the evidentiary bar for a search warrant is probably the lowest among all others in the legal process. the case is largely dependent on the evidence they found in the house when it was searched, and none of that looks good.
Does AnnaTSWG have any information on Aaron dealing drugs, particularly MDMA, at the comedy club?
Aaron is known to like MDMA. If true, this complicates everything. He has many enemies from his radio show and possibly within the comedy community. Regardless, his behavior since the arrests has been comically horrifying. Most people here don't believe half of what he's said, and this is a community that wants to believe him. Imagine what a judge or jury would think.
i really don't think it matters what anyone says about aaron about drugs he may or may not have done or bought months ago. there's no case to be had there. unless they get a warrant to search his house and find ounces of drugs and guns, i see no feasible way that aaron could be
criminally implicated in any of this. he's still a deeply flawed cuck and loser, but the type of case nick is dealing with is a different universe from anything that could be said against aaron from a legal perspective.
Can the child neglect charges stick?
It's doubtful. Despite everything, the kids were involved in debate, soccer, church activities, dance, and theater. Nick mentioned that the eldest had been awarded National Merit Scholar. Despite his issues, Nick managed to get them where they needed to go. CPS will monitor them, but the criminal charges probably won't hold.
well, one assumption i'm comfortable making is that the members of the community who came forward to report the neglect probably have a better sense of those kids' wellbeing than we do. just because we don't know the full picture doesn't mean there's nothing there. for all we know the kids' situation could be
worse than we're thinking.
if i were to pour some cold water on it though, to me, the biggest source of skepticism for the neglect charges is the timeframe. if the coke bender and downward spiral really only began some 6 months ago, then you could make a case that this is a recent development spurred by poor decision-making that is generally out of character compared with their previous child-rearing practices, which were generally good. at least that's one somewhat promising line a defense could take.
Finally, will he get any prison time?
We know that's unlikely. Will the baggies amount to less than 25 grams? Possibly. As others have noted, first-time offenders rarely get any time in Minnesota. If it's less than 25 grams, it'll likely result in a slap on the wrist.
i doubt he'll see prison. i'm 50-50 on whether the amount at the end of the day will be 25 grams or more, and i don't think it matters very much except on paper. either way, as a nonviolent first time offender, i think he'll get some sort of probation arrangement.
If any charges are to stick, we are left hoping that April has real evidence and that the former nanny will speak out. I pray that Detective Pomplun has more information than we do.
Any ideas on what that information could be?
i don't agree. april will have a minor role if any. what matters is the fact that they found ~25g of coke in the master bedroom where nick admitted both he and his wife sleep in. if april comes in and says, "yup. i did the drugs, which he bought, with him, and i was with him when he bought that batch" then of course that's great for the prosecution, but it's just one brick among many, many others, the biggest brick being the brick of cocaine found in the squalid filthy crack den
