2016 US Presidential Election Thread 2 - Always Darkest before Don

first thread devolved into shitposting, here's a new one

 

[Null]

Listen to this grown man cry.

 

[Null]

Sanders attempting to distance himself from Hillary's hateful anti-American rhetoric.

 

[Randall Fragg]

DEMOCRACY IS NON-NEGOTIABLE

Please tell me that's from an actual Shrillary ad.

 

[Grog]

tfw you will never ride on a Guntrump and destroy illegal immigrant camps

 

[The Great Goatse]

Early voting update!

Nevada:
This will be my last NV update, because this state is done. Stick a fork in it. There's no suspense left.
Clark County had, I believe, its biggest day to date of EV yesterday, with 59k votes cast. Dems won the day by 12k(!) and that puts their lead there at 73k(!!). As a reminder, Obama had a 71k vote lead in Clark County going into election day on 2012 and won the state by nearly 7 percent. Nevada's not even going to be close. This is big news for more than just Clinton: numbers like this mean that both houses of the state legislature, the Senate seat, and probably NV-3 and NV-4, currently held by Republicans, are going blue. That's two House seat pickups for Democrats, two closer to Speaker Pelosi. That probably won't happen this cycle, but maybe...
Also, Dems won Washoe yesterday, stemming the bleeding and maintaining a 1000 vote lead there. Given that they trailed by 300 going into election day 2012 and, as I said, won the state by 7 points, Nevada is so far beyond done it's not worth discussing further.

Colorado:
Nothing new to report. Dems still have a small lead but since they tend to win huge here on election day, a Republican needs a big EV lead to take the state and that just isn't happening.

North Carolina:
Dems finally cleared their 2012 total, by less than half a percent. Republicans meanwhile are up 12%. Neither of those numbers matter, however, because NPAs are up 45%(!!!!!) from 2012, and the election entirely depends on how they break. Notably, the share of the EV electorate that are extremely irregular voters has steadily risen. On 10/20, the first day of EV, 78% of ballots were cast by steady voters, voters with a predicted 90+% chance of voting. On 11/3, the last day for which I have this data, it was 56%. Voters who were "missing" in 2012 (registered but didn't vote) back Clinton by 42-33, and voters registered since 2012 go for her by 47-31, both according to Siena (which is a reasonably pollster). This is some tea-leaf reading here, but I think the GOP is in trouble. The gender gap remains high at 55-45, which needs to close for Trump to have a shot.

Ohio:
Dem stronghold Franklin County is set to surpass its 2012 total, making up for a general weakness in Dem EV here. That said, in the rest of the state, Democratic turnout is lagging significantly behind where it needs to be to compete. Clinton is winning the early vote but possibly/probably not by enough to offset Trump's election day advantage. I still think the state is learning Trump but the Clinton campaign has put a MASSIVE amount of resources in here in the past week, and Trump's not visiting it at all before election day, so clearly their internals are telling them different things. Overall I'd predict a Trump victory, but not by as much as I would have earlier this week.

Arizona:
Republicans are up more than 100k in the state. I never really thought this one was in play, though I saw some Dems did. It isn't. It's too old and white this cycle. As those people die off it likely will become more purple but barring a hard Unaffiliated break for Clinton and a big election day dropoff for Trump it's not happening.

Florida:
Another really big day yesterday. The electorate keeps getting browner and browner. Dems took the lead for the day which means they now have the EV lead overall. As you may recall, the electorate was 70% white when EV started. It's on track to hit 65% for election day. Black turnout is strong, and they're overperforming their registration share... but they're still making up a small piece of the overall electorate because the Hispanic vote has been so enormous. That means that they're taking a big bite out of the white share. Turnout has slowed in Republican counties, which is a sign that they may be cannibalizing their election day voters; the majority of low propensity voters turned out so far have been in heavily Democratic areas, which means those areas still have tons of reliable voters left, while the reliable voters in Republican areas are pretty much dried up.

At this point I'd say Florida is pretty well in hand for Clinton, barring a big election day black swan.

New Hampshire:
Nope, wait and see on election day. This one really could go to Trump.

Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota:
There aren't swing states. Don't kid yourself. Trump is gonna lose all five of these bigly.

Right now, my listing of swing states, from most favorable to Clinton to most favorable to Trump:

Nevada
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
--------
Ohio
Arizona

Everything above the breakpoint is blue. Everything below is red.

Other notes:
-Cucked Paul Ryan advertised a joint event he was doing with Trump. Then Trump cancelled on him. Snort.
-Chris Christie has been taken off the campaign trail, rolled in flour and then paddled hard with a wooden spoon while he blubbers and flails around. Well, only the first part of that is true, the rest is conjecture. His career is toast and his best ending at this point is staying out of prison.
-According to Marc Caputo of Politico the Trump campaign has ceased entirely to poll. They're just looking at other people's polls. This is actually not as dumb an idea as it appears since, as I mentioned, polling is absolutely worthless trash at this stage of the race.

If you still can early vote, this is your last day to do so. Go do it! That'll leave more time to put on your Guy Fawkes mask and skirmish with BLM thugs at the polling places on election day.

 

[Pikimon]

Early voting update!

Nevada:
This will be my last NV update, because this state is done. Stick a fork in it. There's no suspense left.
Clark County had, I believe, its biggest day to date of EV yesterday, with 59k votes cast. Dems won the day by 12k(!) and that puts their lead there at 73k(!!). As a reminder, Obama had a 71k vote lead in Clark County going into election day on 2012 and won the state by nearly 7 percent. Nevada's not even going to be close. This is big news for more than just Clinton: numbers like this mean that both houses of the state legislature, the Senate seat, and probably NV-3 and NV-4, currently held by Republicans, are going blue. That's two House seat pickups for Democrats, two closer to Speaker Pelosi. That probably won't happen this cycle, but maybe...
Also, Dems won Washoe yesterday, stemming the bleeding and maintaining a 1000 vote lead there. Given that they trailed by 300 going into election day 2012 and, as I said, won the state by 7 points, Nevada is so far beyond done it's not worth discussing further.

Colorado:
Nothing new to report. Dems still have a small lead but since they tend to win huge here on election day, a Republican needs a big EV lead to take the state and that just isn't happening.

North Carolina:
Dems finally cleared their 2012 total, by less than half a percent. Republicans meanwhile are up 12%. Neither of those numbers matter, however, because NPAs are up 45%(!!!!!) from 2012, and the election entirely depends on how they break. Notably, the share of the EV electorate that are extremely irregular voters has steadily risen. On 10/20, the first day of EV, 78% of ballots were cast by steady voters, voters with a predicted 90+% chance of voting. On 11/3, the last day for which I have this data, it was 56%. Voters who were "missing" in 2012 (registered but didn't vote) back Clinton by 42-33, and voters registered since 2012 go for her by 47-31, both according to Siena (which is a reasonably pollster). This is some tea-leaf reading here, but I think the GOP is in trouble. The gender gap remains high at 55-45, which needs to close for Trump to have a shot.

Ohio:
Dem stronghold Franklin County is set to surpass its 2012 total, making up for a general weakness in Dem EV here. That said, in the rest of the state, Democratic turnout is lagging significantly behind where it needs to be to compete. Clinton is winning the early vote but possibly/probably not by enough to offset Trump's election day advantage. I still think the state is learning Trump but the Clinton campaign has put a MASSIVE amount of resources in here in the past week, and Trump's not visiting it at all before election day, so clearly their internals are telling them different things. Overall I'd predict a Trump victory, but not by as much as I would have earlier this week.

Arizona:
Republicans are up more than 100k in the state. I never really thought this one was in play, though I saw some Dems did. It isn't. It's too old and white this cycle. As those people die off it likely will become more purple but barring a hard Unaffiliated break for Clinton and a big election day dropoff for Trump it's not happening.

Florida:
Another really big day yesterday. The electorate keeps getting browner and browner. Dems took the lead for the day which means they now have the EV lead overall. As you may recall, the electorate was 70% white when EV started. It's on track to hit 65% for election day. Black turnout is strong, and they're overperforming their registration share... but they're still making up a small piece of the overall electorate because the Hispanic vote has been so enormous. That means that they're taking a big bite out of the white share. Turnout has slowed in Republican counties, which is a sign that they may be cannibalizing their election day voters; the majority of low propensity voters turned out so far have been in heavily Democratic areas, which means those areas still have tons of reliable voters left, while the reliable voters in Republican areas are pretty much dried up.

At this point I'd say Florida is pretty well in hand for Clinton, barring a big election day black swan.

New Hampshire:
Nope, wait and see on election day. This one really could go to Trump.

Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota:
There aren't swing states. Don't kid yourself. Trump is gonna lose all five of these bigly.

Right now, my listing of swing states, from most favorable to Clinton to most favorable to Trump:

Nevada
Colorado
Florida
North Carolina
--------
Ohio
Arizona

Everything above the breakpoint is blue. Everything below is red.

Other notes:
-Cucked Paul Ryan advertised a joint event he was doing with Trump. Then Trump cancelled on him. Snort.
-Chris Christie has been taken off the campaign trail, rolled in flour and then paddled hard with a wooden spoon while he blubbers and flails around. Well, only the first part of that is true, the rest is conjecture. His career is toast and his best ending at this point is staying out of prison.
-According to Marc Caputo of Politico the Trump campaign has ceased entirely to poll. They're just looking at other people's polls. This is actually not as dumb an idea as it appears since, as I mentioned, polling is absolutely worthless trash at this stage of the race.

If you still can early vote, this is your last day to do so. Go do it! That'll leave more time to put on your Guy Fawkes mask and skirmish with BLM thugs at the polling places on election day.

Could you link us to where you're getting your data? I'm not disputing it I'm just curious where its coming from.

 

[The Lawgiver]

Please tell me that's from an actual Shrillary ad.

Even better, it's from an anti-Trump propaganda film based off of the batshit claim that Trump is going to deport Legal Latino citizens of the US.
It's simultaneously amusing but also insanely depressing when you realize it wasn't making fun of the claims but rather agreeing with them blindly and pumping a shit ton of money and effort into making this thing.

Speaking of youtube there's currently a massive "STOP TRUMP" Clinton video ad plastered on the upper banner of the homepage. It autoplays this sympathy-baiting fear mongering shit every time you open the front page without some form of an adblocker on.

Google is totally unbiased you guys.

 

[Randall Fragg]

Even better, it's from an anti-Trump propaganda film based off of the batshit claim that Trump is going to deport Legal Latino citizens of the US.
It's simultaneously amusing but also insanely depressing when you realize it wasn't making fun of the claims but rather agreeing with them blindly and pumping a shit ton of money and effort into making this thing.

Speaking of youtube there's currently a massive "STOP TRUMP" Clinton video ad plastered on the upper banner of the homepage. It autoplays this sympathy-baiting fear mongering shit every time you open the front page without some form of an adblocker on.
View attachment 150082
Google is totally unbiased you guys.

Holy shit, now I want a giant Trump-bot that shoots missiles from its crotch. That's fucking awesome.

 

[The Great Goatse]

Could you link us to where you're getting your data? I'm not disputing it I'm just curious where its coming from.

Sure. It comes from a bunch of places. John Ralston is my main source for NV data, but Nevada itself publishes all of its early voter numbers. http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/EV_TurnoutData.aspx

Michael McDonald at Elections Project is another great source:
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/
He covers lots of states.

Steve Schale is a great source for Florida information. He's on the ground there (he just tweeted that he put 3k miles on his car in the past 15 days, which I believe). http://steveschale.com/ is his website, and his twitter has good info too.

Nate Cohn of the Upshot has good info, largely for NC. The NYT runs a great tracker that's especially good for that state.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Garrett Archer is a good source for AZ voter info:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer

There are plenty of other sources I go to to get specific facts, but the above people publish multiple times a day.

Remember: a statement of fact that one candidate is doing better than the other is not partisan. You can't make Hillary win in Ohio or Trump win in Nevada by simply insisting that it's happening over and over again. Wishing don't make it so. These people could all be wrong, but the only result of that is that they'll look really stupid in election day. Dean Chambers proved in 2012 that when you try to go against the data, you get run over. Go vote, vote for your candidate of choice, even if it's not my candidate of choice, but don't ignore the data because it doesn't say what you want it to.

By the time polls close in Nevada, the race will be over, because FL and NC will be called. However, it is worth staying up to see how Nevada turns out, because it's a big tell about EV vs. polls. Polls have the state a dead heat. EV has Clinton up by a lot. If Trump wins the state, or if it's a nailbiter, then in the future overreliance on EV numbers will be a mistake. If Clinton blows him out of the water it'll be a vindication of the EV model and a blow against pure poll aggregators like Nate Silver.

 

[Pimp C]

Listen to this grown man cry.

President for Life Trump is a small price to pay to hear lib Jews like Maher cry "anudah Shoah!" this last week.

 

[Null]

I am pretty sure TGG is being paid to post here.

Friendly reminder that your data represents parties and not votes. I am a Democrat voting for Trump. Your numbers consider me a vote for Clinton.

Edit: Lol. He's from a state literally more liberal than California. This dude would eat Clinton's maggoty cunt.

Edit 2: For kicks I went to RCP's No Tossups map.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

It was way down so I went to the create your own map. Just by making Florida red (which it sure as fuck is), Trump clinched 270. All he needs is this state with this prediction model and I have seen not a single Clinton sticker up and down the state.

Edit 3: I went to Clinton's rally schedule to see if she was even bothering to try and take Florida and she sure as hell is. Her campaign has SIX stops here in the next two days.

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

1 by Clinton, 2 by Kaine, 1 by Obama, and then ONE BY FUCKING CHER AND ANOTHER BON JOVI.

This is how desperate she is. Rolling out fucking Cher and Bon Jovi to get some people to remember she exists.

 

[Rou]

I don't think Google is obligated to be unbiased though. If anything, I wish they were more transparent with their biases.

 

[RP 520]

Sure. It comes from a bunch of places. John Ralston is my main source for NV data, but Nevada itself publishes all of its early voter numbers. http://www.clarkcountynv.gov/election/Pages/EV_TurnoutData.aspx

Michael McDonald at Elections Project is another great source:
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/
He covers lots of states.

Steve Schale is a great source for Florida information. He's on the ground there (he just tweeted that he put 3k miles on his car in the past 15 days, which I believe). http://steveschale.com/ is his website, and his twitter has good info too.

Nate Cohn of the Upshot has good info, largely for NC. The NYT runs a great tracker that's especially good for that state.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

Garrett Archer is a good source for AZ voter info:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer

There are plenty of other sources I go to to get specific facts, but the above people publish multiple times a day.

Remember: a statement of fact that one candidate is doing better than the other is not partisan. You can't make Hillary win in Ohio or Trump win in Nevada by simply insisting that it's happening over and over again. Wishing don't make it so. These people could all be wrong, but the only result of that is that they'll look really stupid in election day. Dean Chambers proved in 2012 that when you try to go against the data, you get run over. Go vote, vote for your candidate of choice, even if it's not my candidate of choice, but don't ignore the data because it doesn't say what you want it to.

By the time polls close in Nevada, the race will be over, because FL and NC will be called. However, it is worth staying up to see how Nevada turns out, because it's a big tell about EV vs. polls. Polls have the state a dead heat. EV has Clinton up by a lot. If Trump wins the state, or if it's a nailbiter, then in the future overreliance on EV numbers will be a mistake. If Clinton blows him out of the water it'll be a vindication of the EV model and a blow against pure poll aggregators like Nate Silver.

First link: Is a legit source. I give you credit there.

Second link: Is some professor who leans pro-Hillary.

Third link: The guy is in the tank for the democrats and Hillary and his about page reads almost like a lolcow.

Forth link: lol NYTimes.

Fifth link: Is also a legit source, since he's the assistant director of elections in that state.

2/5, please insert coin and try again.

 

[The Great Goatse]

First link: Is a legit source. I give you credit there.

Second link: Is some professor who leans pro-Hillary.

Third link: The guy is in the tank for the democrats and Hillary and his about page reads almost like a lolcow.

Forth link: lol NYTimes.

Fifth link: Is also a legit source, since he's the assistant director of elections in that state.

2/5, please insert coin and try again.

Tell you what. Let's see if the numbers are accurate come election day. If they're not, you have free reign to call me a $oro$ $hill who's deliberately posting disinformation on the Kiwi Farms as part of Abuela's 420-step plan to turn America into a Satanic communist hellscape. If they are, then maybe you admit that sometimes people you personally don't like are capable of being correct about things like objective, measurable facts.

EDIT: by the way, this is why Trump is losing. His campaign is allergic to any kind of facts or data and just goes by "mah feelz" instead of trying to actually figure out how to get their supporters to the polls. You can feel free to ignore reality that comes to you via sources other than Breitbart, but that reality goes on being true even when your fingers are in your ears.

 

[Rou]

I am pretty sure TGG is being paid to post here.

Friendly reminder that your data represents parties and not votes. I am a Democrat voting for Trump. Your numbers consider me a vote for Clinton.

Edit: Lol. He's from a state literally more liberal than California. This dude would eat Clinton's maggoty cunt.

Edit 2: For kicks I went to RCP's No Tossups map.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ctions_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

It was way down so I went to the create your own map. Just by making Florida red (which it sure as fuck is), Trump clinched 270. All he needs is this state with this prediction model and I have seen not a single Clinton sticker up and down the state.

Edit 3: I went to Clinton's rally schedule to see if she was even bothering to try and take Florida and she sure as hell is. Her campaign has SIX stops here in the next two days.

https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

1 by Clinton, 2 by Kaine, 1 by Obama, and then ONE BY FUCKING CHER AND ANOTHER BON JOVI.

This is how desperate she is. Rolling out fucking Cher and Bon Jovi to get some people to remember she exists.

To be quite frank, you're most likely the exception, not the rule.

 

[Lurker]

I posed this question in chat, but fuck it, I'll ask here as well.

For those of you voting for Trump, what are your opinions regarding his six bankruptcies?

The reason I'm asking is because, well, honestly, no one ever seems to talk about it or acknowledge it, and I think that it's kind of an important thing to discuss.

 

[JU 199]

1 by Obama

The president of the united states isn't small potatoes. I mean Hillary isn't great but the prez vouching for you can make a big difference, especially when his approval numbers are good (and they are right now)

 

[The Great Goatse]

To be quite frank, you're most likely the exception, not the rule.

No, Null has a good point there. For a long time there were a lot of registered Democrats in the South who never bothered changing their registration but hadn't voted for a Democrat since Carter or before. Florida is no exception.
The issue is that Florida has closed primaries and this year a lot of deeply red counties had MASSIVE drops in D registration and spikes in R registration. A lot of those people switched over. Clearly, not all of them did, but to a certain degree that's "baked in" to the model.

Regardless, it doesn't matter much. Democrats and Republicans are basically tied and are going to go into election day basically tied. What matters is how NPAs break.

 

[Ruin]

I posed this question in chat, but fuck it, I'll ask here as well.

For those of you voting for Trump, what are your opinions regarding his six bankruptcies?

The reason I'm asking is because, well, honestly, no one ever seems to talk about it or acknowledge it, and I think that it's kind of an important thing to discuss.

The success rate for staring a business in the United States is about 35%. Six businesses going under out of the dozens of successful ventures he's had is neither surprising nor noteworthy.

The only people who are going to be swayed by this are wannabe college commies who have never held a real job or taken an economics course.

 

[Null]

Tell you what. Let's see if the numbers are accurate come election day. If they're not, you have free reign to call me a $oro$ $hill who's deliberately posting disinformation on the Kiwi Farms as part of Abuela's 420-step plan to turn America into a Satanic communist hellscape. If they are, then maybe you admit that sometimes people you personally don't like are capable of being correct about things like objective, measurable facts.

Your numbers are not objective. You're taking arbitrary statistics and twisting them to mean whatever you want them to. Combine this with the allegations of voter fraud already appearing.

Trump has 15%~25% of the Black vote, 40%~50% of the Latino vote (yes, really). She is not taking this state.