US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[quaawaa]

At the local level, I've been seeing a sort of oldschool Christianity revival, led by Gen Xers.

A lot less fire and brimstone, a lot more Jesus was way cool. SImple moral lessons. It's been kind of cool to see.

I'm not sure that's a good thing. A lot of religious people can't tell you the first thing about the Bible except that Jesus loves people. Are they really Christians if they've thrown away 99% of the religion?

 

[Catboy Ranch]

…because people are largely fine with moral crusading if it’s their side doing it? And now that exact same moral crusading is turning today’s young people against them? Nobody likes being told what they can and can’t do, but everyone loves controlling what other people should be able to do. Being hypocritical and inconsistent is literally basic human nature, dunno why you’re expecting people to be rational and internally consistent with their beliefs.

some people don't believe moral crusading is hardly ever worth the energy (libertarian school). I think it's only useful to do that when it intersects with more fundamental things like liberties. To do it for some social theories courts disaster. We did this once.

The Progressive Movement (no, not this current one... the one from the Christian Women's Temperance Union), went on a teetotaler campaign spanning 60 years, only for it to wreck American social life in many places, create a nationwide air of lawlessness about the place and certainly sewed the seeds of ungodliness everywhere; for what social ills it was purported to solve.

 

[The Last Stand]

Left-wing media? Talking shit about a Republican? Oh that's a real stunner.

Hint: they mainly went after safe targets like that or went after unsafe targets with kid gloves for a reason.

When did that episode come out? 1992. What was happening around that time? Bill Clinton's victory because of H.W. Bush's tax policy amidst an approaching recession AFTER another Middle Eastern conflict. Yet, Bush found time to take cheap shots at a cartoon because he wanted to push family values while sending Americans to war.

My point is, when things get rough, people turn to entertainment for escapism. The Simpsons managed to be tonally repulsive against the ideal American family by indirectly humoring its audience through reflection and social commentary. Oh, and that episode I mentioned wasn't political, it was a gag against Bush himself. No political knowledge required to get a laugh.

 

[Gar For Archer]

Depends on your perspective. If Dorsey and them hadn't banned him and showed the world they've gone full tyrant, Elon might not have bought it

I doubt Trump getting banned had any significant impact in Elon’s decision to buy Twitter, which by all accounts appears to be an impulse buy that he regretted immediately afterwards but was already legally committed to without any way to back out.

 

[quaawaa]

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[Rimanah]

Why would they suspend one now?

Because we can’t allow orange Hitler to get the nuclear codes of course. He’s too much of a threat to democracy, so we must suspend democracy. Haven’t you even read Karl popper bro?

The supposed moral crusaders you were ranting about back then didn't have any power. The closest anyone came to having it is when it was Democrats such as Joe Lieberman, Tipper Gore, and Hillary Clinton doing it, yet the right-wing Christians are the ones who apparently got blamed.

It does speak volumes that republicans and Christians get blamed for the satanic panic. The PRMC hearing was done at Dems like Tipper Gore’s behest, and the musicians standing against it were Dee Snider, a Christian, Frank Zappa, a conservative atheist, and John Denver, a liberal hippie. Democrats sought censorship, and people of all stripes, including Christians and Conservatives, stood against it.
Compare that to someone like Scalia and the flag burning case. Man was about as Conservative and Christian as they come, yet was anti-censorship.

I have to give the liberal media props for accomplishing that wide-scale brainwashing. It disgusts me, but it is impressive.

 

[The Last Stand]

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If I had a choice between a woman like Michelle and a guy, give me the guy anytime of the day.

 

[KSachiko77]

I'm going for 365 Days+ of NoFap, NoPorn, No Lusting for ANY women (in public, on TV shows and Movies) and also No Wet Dreams via regular lucid dreaming, sleeping in certain poses, not eating spicy food too close to bedtime. Full on physical and mental chastity for spiritual gains.

I have ignored requests from girls I know to meet up. I have deliberately looked away when I stumble upon an attractive woman on any screen anywhere.

You do realize your dick will stop working if you go too long right?

 

[Gehenna]

What do you guys think about Allan Lichtman? I'm sure many of you already know of him, but out of the last 10 presidential elections he correctly "predicted" 9 of them, using his methodology called "13 Keys to the White House'. Basically if the current sitting White House party has 6 or more of his "keys" against them, they will lose the election to the opposing party. He has supposedly applied this methodology to elections before those previous 10, and it still held true.

I have been watching him on YouTube recently. He seems to have the complete polar opposite take of the media at the moment. He thinks the Democrats best chance at winning is for Biden to stay in the race, because that would automatically award them 2 of his keys. At the moment he seems to believe the Democrats are the favorite via his keys system. He has even said the 2024 election may end up being similar to the 1948 election. But he won't make his final prediction until August after the DNC.

He is definitely a Democrat himself, it's apparent by his videos and how much he wants Biden to win. He even called Biden's recent "big boy" NATO speech great. His comments on his recent streams and videos are full of Democrats and Biden voters, thanking him for his reassurance on the situation. With all that said, he still admits that there could be something outside the keys, so catastrophic by itself, that the keys wouldn't matter, and the sitting party would still lose the election regardless. He just says that this has never happened so far in American history, using his models.

So, let's actually look at what Lichtman predicted.

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Now, this is his latest prediction. In order for Biden to lose he has to get less than 8 blue marks. Here is the important part, the methodology is solid but -his interpretation- is laughably biased at this point.

First off, Key 3: "Incumbent seeking reelection" should be undecided as his methodology cannot factor in whether Trump does or does not have incumbent advantage as well. The man is first and foremost a historian and the Keys to the Whitehouse are based entirely on historical precedents. Calling Key 3 anything but undecided is honestly shameful since he has no historical precedent to weigh.

Key 4: "No Third Party" should be flipped to Leans Red. Specifically, once you hit near 10% this becomes a decisive factor and to claim it as anything but is again... biased.

Key 5: "Strong Short-Term Economy" & Key 6: "Strong Long-Term Economy" should just be outright red. -Maybe- Leans Blue with long-term. Lichtman is basing this -entirely- off of Wall Street and is utterly ignoring inflation as an issue.

Key 8: "No Social Unrest" is actually correct! Specifically, it is meant to be -sustained- unrest, consistent protests and action not a general feeling of unease. Trump's assassination attempt does nudge the needle but still, going off the methodology, does not quite hit it. This one is more or less a "Well-defined, but not intuitive".

Key 9: "No Scandal".... honestly, this one is your utter proof the man is letting ideology blind him. The Mar-A-Lago raid, SS failure, Hunter Biden's existence, New Palestine, and on and on. There are so many to choose from.
And finally: Key 13: "Uncharismatic Challenger". Really? Reeeeeally? Even most of Trump's serious detractors admit he's a good showman.

So we end up with: T: 3 | F: 9 | U: 1

 

[The Last Stand]

They’ve got nobody but themselves to blame for the rise of Reddit atheism, which was a direct backlash against overbearing Christian moral policing.

What Reddit fails to understand is that atheism is a religion as well. It's surface level designed around pseudo-intellectual fallacies to anger the other side for self importance. At worst, it's a condemnation of faith itself using God as a mockery towards one's values founded through religion.

 

[Local Farmer]

sleeping in certain poses, not eating spicy food too close to bedtime.

Is this schizophrenia or is there literature on this?

 

[The Last Stand]

I have to give the liberal media props for accomplishing that wide-scale brainwashing. It disgusts me, but it is impressive.

Liberal media does not need nuance anymore. It's infinitely easier to boast red herrings through soapboxing using social justice as a quail against their opposition.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

@Jet Fuel Johnny seems to be hinting at some sort of inside baseball knowledge for the rapid and hard intervention. I'm curious as to what it is. I understand it's probably military scuttlebutt rather than actual classified info, but I'd still like to know.

His theory will be as good as mine.

The only thing I've read in memoirs from Reagan's first term that's definitive is that Grenada changed the Reagan White House. Afterwards, DOD intelligence took a bigger competing role in the president's ear, through the JCS. No more CIA trying to drive the bus all by themselves—with their ability to hide behind the blame game after disasters truly checked.

Since HW Bush was a CIA man through and through, I'm presuming whatever organization-drama in the office that may have occurred after Grenada wound down, he lost.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

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Have you looked at Obama's daughters. They look EXACTLY like him.

It looks like he did the deed with Michael.

 

[Jaimas]

You're confusing political affliction with moral grandstanding. Generally speaking, Democrats from twenty, thirty years ago are different from how Democrats conduct themselves NOW. Take Matt Groening from The Simpsons as an example. The social dynamic THEN allowed liberalism to be "rebellious" in nature through entertainment and social perception. I can't say for certain WHEN/HOW that Overton Window stretched thin on either direction, but it's argued that 2012-2016 caused that dichotomy to be redefined.

It started in 2010. Using online pressure and being very loud, groups of shitheads online learned they could apply pressure to companies over "sensitive" content and get them to capitulate. The second it happened more than a few times, it became their go-to "thing." One can blame Tumblr, but it was merely a new version of an old shithead behavior (The AFA's goons did this with old TV shows, to the point where they accounted for 99% of FTC complaints).

 

[The Last Stand]

It started in 2010. Using online pressure and being very loud, groups of shitheads online learned they could apply pressure to companies over "sensitive" content and get them to capitulate.

Slightly disagree, political correctness started earlier than that with Looney Tunes shorts being in syndicated television from the 60s.

I believe Family Guy was one of those shows that suffered from FCC interference from conservative activist groups. It helps that Seth MacFarlene leaned left to have SOME immunity to create "safe edgy" humor that plagued adult animation.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

Depends on your perspective. If Dorsey and them hadn't banned him and showed the world they've gone full tyrant, Elon might not have bought it

It amazes me that the pajeet caretaker Dorsey hired to run Twitter while he went to go nap in Fiji banned the Babylon Bee for a very mild tranny joke, and this one joke set off a whole anti-woke revolution that is still going on.

 

[Forest Portal Triumph 747]

@Gehenna

>Key 8: "No Social Unrest" is actually correct! Specifically, it is meant to be -sustained- unrest, consistent protests and action not a general feeling of unease. Trump's assassination attempt does nudge the needle but still, going off the methodology, does not quite hit it. This one is more or less a "Well-defined, but not intuitive".

Conservatives don't chimp out, but they and many who aren't on the left certainly rather unrestful. On top of that, the rising crime rates and rising illegal immigration makes me argue that this key actually counts against chomo joe

 

[The Last Stand]

It started in 2010. Using online pressure and being very loud, groups of shitheads online learned they could apply pressure to companies over "sensitive" content and get them to capitulate.

Aren't those the same people that mandated advisory warnings onto Gone with the Wind on HBO Max because of depictions of slavery?

 

[⠠⠠⠅⠑⠋⠋⠁⠇⠎ ⠠⠠⠊⠎ ⠠⠠⠁ ⠠⠠⠋⠁⠛]

Okay, so people are dancing around it, and I have to ask: what *was* the reason the US had to go in as hard and as fast as possible without informing the UK ahead of time?

Around that time, I know much of the political establishment of the USSR was muddled and paranoid as geriatric premiers kept dying as soon as they were installed.

Did Maurice Bishop and the NDM have an agreement to secretly base nukes in Grenada or were they going to serve as an advance base for other insurrections in the Caribbean and Latin America? What could tiny Grenada do that Cuba couldn't do ten times better for the Soviets in the Western Hemisphere?

it was a free country and the JewSA didn't want even one more of those to exist