Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

And when price was so high and for how long?
It peaked at 336€/MWh on Aug 22, 20 times the original baseline price
It was a whole year of prices above 100€/MWh, straining everyone. Electricity in germoney is already priciest in europe.

And which company independent from EuroChem have stopped production?
French and US multinationals Michelin and Goodyear are closing four factories in Germany, citing high energy prices and intense competition from abroad.

The EU imports most of its gas from completely different directions than Russia, and has been increasing imports from outside Russia for years (since last year - over 90% of imports come from directions other than Russia).
Everything can be done, but at what cost.
It's not like pumping from Germany or Poland to the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Hungary would be an emergency. It would be a predicted situation for which the infrastructure is ready.
No it's really not. Compressor stations can't be reversed like that unless specifically built for it. Most of the gas network is made to flow one way supply-demand. Only EU interconnector pipes can reverse flows.

Do you know what the biggest problem was in practice? With Russian hard coal. And you'll never guess who imported it the most and was almost addicted to it. It was... Poland! Theoretically, a large coal producer, the problem is that Polish hard coal is low-efficiency, and there is no point in burning it without mixing it with high-calorie coal. Small thermal power plants are small, often old and quite simple installations that need coal with some specific calorific value.
I wasn't aware of the issue. However I am aware of issues of low grade brown coal. Furnaces are made with specific kWh/kg figure, less than that and it doesn't burn well or at all and higher than that it burns itself up. Importing anything is usually a big hurdle, given you have to create a new transport stream, Poland however sits on coal, most of it was ex. germany's territory anyway which was carved up. Polish plants feed german grids while germans pretend they have clean power. It's all green make believe and overall, stupid and fragile.

no one in the EU froze in 2022, did not freeze in 2023, will not freeze in 2024 or 2025.
That's not true at all. https://www.euronews.com/2024/01/19/uk-records-4950-excess-winter-deaths-amid-cost-of-living-crisis

And people just became poor overall. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/docum...P-EN.pdf/4a39f5fb-4f44-3b5d-2693-ff5bfd40ff03

Paying 700€/MWh is no joke.

The missing fact is that the economic success of europe relied on cheap energy. Without it it's game over.

Reminder, that's with this event as well: https://www.madeinbritain.org/news/europes-largest-steel-plant-has-been-destroyed

The resulting fallout will be the same as US steelworks closing and being replaced by greater chinesium. Once you close it, you won't reopen it ever again.
Even with the basic requirements to make iron in blast furnaces which are immensly energy intensive.

There are other issues too: https://packagingeurope.com/news/th...n-aluminiums-production-decline/11443.article

Why share production elsewhere for stuff you can make home ? While exports will decline, so will standard of life in europe.
 

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This is bullshit lvl over 9000 - all cases/nearly all cases are homeless bums.

However I am aware of issues of low grade brown coal.
You mean lignite? This is not an industrial scale problem. Brown coal is usually mined to be burned in a nearby power plant, built especially for a given deposit. Which has parameters adjusted to the quality of a given deposit.

More about polish coal import: https://energy.instrat.pl/en/import-analysis-20240104/ and don't look at proportion of local hard coal/imported because of mixing process needed to use local hard coal.

But... this is about saving rate. Saving rate increases when gross disposable income grows at a higher rate than final consumption expenditure.

And this go up from 12% (Q12018) to 14% (Q4 2023). It has peak in COVID era, but because COVID.

Polish plants feed german grids while germans pretend they have clean power. It's all green make believe and overall, stupid and fragile.
Poland usually imports electricity.

The energy sector in Germany does not even pretend to be clean - in 2023, RWE destroyed the town of Lützerath and a wind farm to mine lignite. Type 'Lützerath RWE' into Google and you will see a worse circus than what is happening in Africa with what they did.
 
Homeless bums are still people
People who don't pay for their heating aren't really affected by the price of heating, no?


French and US multinationals Michelin and Goodyear are closing four factories in Germany, citing high energy prices and intense competition from abroad.
The discourse about the economic situation in Germany is pretty dominated by Russian talking points, even the on its face factual one.
Specifically it at best looks at the outcomes, but blanks out the causes for problem and the alternatives that were at offer at the time.

Generally, a government is trying to diversify sources of energy (and other essential resources), so it is not reliant on a single supplier for a critical amount of anything.
In Germany, reliance on exclusively gas was pushed for a variety of reasons, but one cannot ignore that a number of high ranking politicians, including a chancellor, which is the most powerful political office in Germany, who put substantial effort into expanding this trade, ended up on the payroll of the Russian government (still is to this day).
Germany was warned for years that the heavy reliance on cheap Russian gas would make Germany extremely susceptible to political blackmail by the Russian government, but those concerns were dismissed out of hand, because of the then contemporary European foreign politics vs Russia (and every level of the German government and intelligence apparatus being filled with Russian agents). Namely, that increasing trade and economic cooperation would lead to Russia becoming a normal country and EU-Russia relations would one day be as peaceful and boring as German-French relations. This was of course completely wrong and based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the functioning of and incentive structures in the Russian political and economic system.
During that time period, European countries built military production lines for all kinds of Russian weapon systems, since Russia has virtually no domestic machine building industry capable of producing anything remotely sophisticated. Those lines are now being used to produce the weapons Russian government officials and Russian government media use to threaten European countries with violence every other day, so that too turned out exactly as "butthurt belt" analysts predicted it would.
In 2021, when the US was warning the world that the Russians planned to invade Ukraine, the German chancellor was informed that the Russians delivered significantly less gas than normal. Storages were at historical low points. These reports were suppressed and nothing was done. These politicians are the very same people the vatniggers know claim are rabid russophobes who always did everything in their power to destroy and betray Russia, by the way.
Then after the invasion, Russians kept implying there would be problems with the gas, some technical shit, some sanctions got in the way, yada, yada, all nonsense, and eventually they just unilaterally ceased deliveries altogether without substantial reason (was recently determined in an arbitration court case).
Nord_Stream_gas_flows.webp.png
As you can see, the pipeline explosion (red x) happened AFTER gas deliveries had already stopped. There's a whole rabbit hole about why a second pipeline was built. To this day, nobody knows who blew it up. Half a dozen factions have an interest and the ability, and there is no evidence proving it was any of them. That of course doesn't stop vatniggers from being 500000% sure it was the US. Who needs evidence? The same way they know for a fact that Ukraine blew up that dam, even though in that case only Russia had the opportunity and only Russia had a motive to do it.

This suddenly loss of gas supply forced the Germans to conduct a crash program to radically revamp their energy supply within an extremely short time period, which causes higher prises and economic disturbances. The after-shocks are still felt to this day.

So, what would have been the alternatives to what actually happened?
1) Don't have traitors and Russian agents in the government and don't become this dependent on an obviously hostile foreign power to begin with. (Dream)
2) React in 2021 when it became known that the Russians would use the gas for economic blackmail, significantly buffering off the shock and making the transition less painful.
3) Continue importing gas for the low price of surrendering German sovereignty in foreign politics to Kremlin control.

"Neutral observers who just want peace with our Russian friends" have a strange obsession with option 3 and never ever complain about all the traitors and paid agents of a hostile foreign power that is actively blackmailing them and which got them into this situation. Pretty suspicious.

It's one of these topics where vatniks are living in a completely different reality that has zero connection to any facts:
I recently saw one claim that virtuous Russia never used economic weapons against the west and that is why everyone trusts them. I know I read that the Indian government put out a statement that they will not become reliant on Russian hydrocarbons, no matter how steep the discount, because they have this example to learn from. I feel like I read something similar coming from China. Still, why let reality get in the way of comfortable make-belief?


Others notable delusions are :
- "Maidan CIA coup" (completely made up)
- "Ukrainian Civil War"(was not a civil war at all)
- "Minsk agreements were broken by Ukraine only and were a scam by the West anyway" (were actually broken instantly by the Russians who negotiated in bad faith and openly lied about their involvement in the conflict to begin with)
- "Donbas Genocide" (completely made up, zero evidence for it existing in any way shape or form).

It's notable that whenever vatnigger shills talk about these events, they focus on extreme minutia on the Ukrainian side, while completely ignoring massive, obvious interventions from the Russia side, so they create doubt and confusion, because who knows whether the sniper on the watermelon knoll used an American or Russian rifle, and an overall view that all these events were probably aggressive actions against Russians or Russia in some non-descript way with the motivation of "they're just somehow inherently evil and hate us for no reason".
This tactic is effective, because people who don't know about the topic will read a consistent appearing account of events that they cannot question because they have no background knowledge, and they will never ever ever hear anything from the shills that would cast into doubt their narratives.

If you confront shills or their cultists with even the most well established facts, their response isn't to engage in reasoned argument, it is to yell insults, copy paste talking points, and just fuck off and repeat their claims elsewhere. This shows their inherent mental dysfunction and dishonesty. There is no interest, no learning, not even actual understanding. Just paper-thin memorized nonsense that immediately folds under questioning.

When you read their thread, it's evident that they by now live in a completely made up parallel reality in which Russia is a peaceful country that is continuously betrayed and victimized by Western countries for absolutely no rational reason, simply because the West is just filled with Nazis and Satanists, which endlessly escalate conflict without regard for anyone's safety and commit war crimes on a horrendous scale, while Russia fights with both hands tied behind her back, because she is so virtuous and would never do anything questionable, and anyway this is an easy war that Russia could win any time is just dragging it on because it's actually super good for the Russian economy and Russia is getting stronger the longer it lasts while NATO is basically out of everything and will fight WW III with sticks and stones, and all the Ukrainians will eventually be exterminated for satanism and nazism, and Russians will settle their lands and everything will be a grand trad paradise.

I even saw the opinion that Ukraine invading Russian soil is bad for Ukraine, because it annihilates the propaganda lie that this conflict is defensive in nature ("it was a pre-emptive attack by Russia because Ukraine was about to invade" is one the retarded theories popular among vatniggers).
Absolutely delulu.
 
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People who don't pay for their heating aren't really affected by the price of heating, no?
Job loss due to high energy price and closing of oppenings. Resulting home loss due to job loss will result in same effect.

Basically energy poverty. https://www.cleanenergywire.org/new...ngly-affecting-germanys-middle-class-analysis
Homeless people don't appear from thin air and the middle class is getting squished.
 
Homeless people don't appear from thin air
In welfare states, homeless people are usually non-citizens or those too mentally retarded or mentally ill to navigate the system. People who have it somewhat together generally don't end up on the street just because they lose their job.
Rising prices suck for these people, but the coppers aren't pulling truckloads of corpses out of cold homes.
 
That of course doesn't stop vatniggers from being 500000% sure it was the US.
I apologize for post spam. Didn't read all of it at once and I can't post proper quotes in edits.
Biden related video about ending nordstream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVbEoZXhCrM
Supplies dwindled, that is absolutely true - a pressue on germoney politicians increased.
While NS2 was build for germany's needs, it couldn't have been possible without russian ops in europe.
It was mentioned US would blow NS to end germany's mellow response about russia. Either way, EU imported a lot of US LNG afterwards.
So, what would have been the alternatives to what actually happened?
1) Don't have traitors and Russian agents in the government and don't become this dependent on an obviously hostile foreign power to begin with. (Dream)
2) React in 2021 when it became known that the Russians would use the gas for economic blackmail, significantly buffering off the shock and making the transition less painful.
3) Continue importing gas for the low price of surrendering German sovereignty in foreign politics to Kremlin control.
1. It was known about RU influence on german energy economy and as you've said it, everyone was warned ahead of time and got ridiculed. Sadly, germany is without backbone and occupied by either us or ru influences.
2. It's not the first time russians used their gas to put on some leverage. That this was not considered in their abilities and creating energy dependance is just blatantly retarded alltogether. They used this leverage on UKR and HU before, and that's in recent years. They aren't allies as much as they present themselves to be and want to take over all of europe. The invasion plans are still very much alive in the minds of the generals. That being said, OPEC cartel should be broken down. America also wiped out libiya's and africa's idea about leaving the USD exchange for oil and also keeping embargos on a lot of ME states. I don't think there's anyone innocent in this big game.
3. Gas imports aren't the issue as much as bribed politicians are. I am all for cheap gas, but there's no point in being cheap if people pay with lives or well ... it's not cheap anymore. Euroticians managed once more to turn germoney into an underdog of the world.

In welfare states, homeless people are usually non-citizens or those too mentally retarded or mentally ill to navigate the system. People who have it somewhat together generally don't end up on the street just because they lose their job.
Rising prices suck for these people, but the coppers aren't pulling truckloads of corpses out of cold homes.
That requires that the welfare state is sane.
 
Maybe. Overall it shows another failure for Russia. Casual observer of both threads and the war in general.

Winning Kyiv was a big success. However this ongoing struggle in the 'Oblast' or whatever it is called might be a good tell for what is to come.

Any news on the internal politics of the Russian government and its people in regards to the conscripts? From my understanding some soldiers were killed and they were not supposed to be seeing combat. I don't understand why these particular soldiers are held to such high regard.
Mandatory service in Russia is treated differently because it's, well... mandatory. It's more ritualistic than anything else, generally speaking you can't avoid it, so the fact that you're there doesn't necessarily mean that you're all in for the military life. You're expected to get out after your term, then go back to studying and become part of the workforce.
After Afghanistan and Chechnya general sentiment toward service wasn't great to begin with, especially with the state of Russian army. There's always a good chance your kid will be returned broken by abuse, if he'll return at all. In peace time.

Russia is technically not at war, a lot of the population actually believes the "SMO" bullshit. In their minds, it's perfectly fine when someone signs a contract and goes out there to kill people on their behalf, the whole thing is supposedly being handled by the professional army, which is not what their conscript kids are.

Government is trying to sell their invasion of Ukraine as not-war, using doublespeak and torrent of blatant propaganda to fool people. There's a reason people were sent to prison for refusing the term "SMO" and calling it what it is - war.
Conscripts can only be used in the state of an all out war. Which is something Russians paradoxically do not want, it's unpopular. It sounds crazy, I know, but they're out of their minds: wanting to relieve the glory days of USSR that defeated Hitler and show the world how superior they are, and avoid getting massacred the way they did there.
In my lifetime it went from "An unjust peace is better than a just war" to whatever the fuck this is.

Edit: Rather, they don't want a war they can't overwhelmingly win, which they lack capabilities for against a peer (and even near-peer, as we've learned over the past couple years) opponent. Which would see their sons sent to the slaughter.
 
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Rather, they don't want a war they can't overwhelmingly win, which they lack capabilities for against a peer (and even near-peer, as we've learned over the past couple years) opponent. Which would see their sons sent to the slaughter.
To be fair, this is what everybody sane wants. Most people in the US are okay with stomping some muzzies to keep the peace or even get some oil but would never want to fight China. Because war sucks.
Russia's problem is that their retarded foreign policy, lack of a functioning politicial system, and posturing has given them exactly what they didn't want, a long real war, not just a BTFO and/or occupation.

But it's ok because western edgelord LARPers will tell you it's all to Russian benefit and it's all according to plan, daddy putin will roll over kiiiiiiiiv whenever he chooses to.
 
To be fair, this is what everybody sane wants. Most people in the US are okay with stomping some muzzies to keep the peace or even get some oil but would never want to fight China. Because war sucks.
Russia's problem is that their retarded foreign policy, lack of a functioning politicial system, and posturing has given them exactly what they didn't want, a long real war, not just a BTFO and/or occupation.

But it's ok because western edgelord LARPers will tell you it's all to Russian benefit and it's all according to plan, daddy putin will roll over kiiiiiiiiv whenever he chooses to.
Maybe, but Putin doesn't have his 9/11 like he did with the Second Chechen War (apartment building explosions that no actual Chechen militant took responsibility for, with Putin's glowies getting caught in the act). With Ukraine it's all pure fiction.
Nor is it random muslims halfway across the world like it was for US and Iraq. It's our neighbors, often relatives.

But I get what you mean. All in all, don't start a fight you can't resolutely win. Which I always thought was the aim, but Putin was too high on his own propaganda to see the reality. I'm absolutely convinced he would've gotten away with it if he did it quickly as initially planned, before international community had time to react, like it was with Crimea. Basically "What's done is done, it's too bothersome for us, all we can do is a slap on the wrist".
Ultimately, the corrupt system Putin built to maintain power and enrich himself ended up biting him in the ass, it's like karmic retribution. I'm sure there's more to come.
 
Yes, I agree. Sure it was partially fueled by cucks in the west letting Putin get away with things. But ultimately, not having a functioning system of accountable leadership is the problem.

That includes the media (no matter how shitty our 'free press' can be), political opposition, and people able to tell the boss "but Sir, this is retarded" without flying out a window. Putin even avoids all hits to his pride because his underlings take the fall, let alone any more serious consequences.
 
Biden related video about ending nordstream
A senile old man who can barely form a coherent sentence flubbed a statement. That has no value to me. The US and half a dozen European governments have been arguing against NS for years, since long before the start of the war. You can probably find other quotes that are "sus" in retrospect if you bothered to grind through all the noise.

It was mentioned US would blow NS to end germany's mellow response about russia. Either way, EU imported a lot of US LNG afterwards.
The issue is that elements of the German government benefitted. Ukraine benefitted. Poland benefitted. The Baltics benefitted. Russia benefitted. That's what I mean with "There is no obvious culprit".

The Biden admin have been hardcore appeaseniks since the start, they repeatedly interceded to save Russian military assets and high ranking officers, they veto'd NATO air defenses shooting down Russian missiles and drones over Ukrainian territory near NATO borders in response to Russians giving zero shits and repeatedly violating NATO airspace with their attacks on Ukraine, and regularly having weapons explode inside Romania. Even now, they STILL have not lifted their ban on using ATACMS on Russia air fields in the border regions. They even veto the use of EU made cruise missiles there.
And people want to claim these bitchmade ultrafaggots had the gall to blow up a major European infrastructure project, an act that has the potential to destroy NATO from within if anyone ever gets their hands on evidence they did it?
I would need rock-solid evidence for that.
Something I can see to be the case, is that they have evidence of who did it, but cover it up to avoid escalation.
This doesn't just refer to Ukrainian culprits. If it came out that Russians did it, Europeans would piss and shit, possibly even invoke Article 5, which would be extremely dangerous escalation, and Russia must never lose decisively, because that's bad for international stability according to the blind worms in Washington.

Something most people apparently don't know is that there was a lot of political back and forth about certifying NS 2, which was basically ready to boot up, only paperwork needed to be signed.
And then the explosion happened.
And it turns out that out of 4 pipelines, 1 was left undamaged. One of the NS 2 ones that Russia had spent months trying their hardest to push into service. Another coincidence.


The Russian Foreign Ministry once again called on international organizations to condemn Kyiv’s terrorist attacks on regions of the Russian Federation.​

Earlier, the Russian diplomatic department had already demanded that the international community resolutely condemn the criminal actions of the Kiev regime at the very beginning of the invasion of the Kursk region.

To which the international community responded with full approval of the offensive operation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Russian region.
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Meet the new term in Putin's newspeak - "voluntary evacuation".​

Russians are not fleeing, they are evacuating voluntarily.
They voluntarily abandoned their homes and property, voluntarily grabbed their children in the middle of the night and voluntarily evacuated.
And they decided so themselves.
They listened to the victories of the Russian army, watched Apti Alaudinov's TikToks - and voluntarily evacuated.
Something like mass entertainment, a new type of active tourism.
Why say "almost 100 thousand Russians have become refugees". It's unpleasant.
If you say this on TV, people might decide that not everything is going according to plan.
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Combat formation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kursk Region​

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POWniks.​


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>day 900 of Operation Iraqi Freedom
>500,000 American soldiers are dead or crippled
>it has been years since the US air force was able to operate in Iraqi air space, the US has spent that time using long range cruise missiles to systematically destroy Iraqi hospitals and the power infrastructure, as they lack the ability to identify command posts, ammunition dumps, barracks, or even factories
>after losing a carrier strike group to Iraqi missiles and suicide drones, the US Navy was forced to abandon the Persian Gulf
>Turkish OSINT accounts examining satellite images found that half of the US strategic stockpile of military equipment is gone, and much of what is left are cannibalized or broken hulls
>CNN proudly shows transport ships being loaded with re-activated M48 Pattons, which have become one of the workhorses of the US army
>patriots triumphantly post videos of US Marines conducting trench assaults on motorbikes and electric scooters, as Bradleys are an endangered species and everything else are death traps in the frontline environment
>after the rout of the armored spearheads outside of Baghdad and Falluja two years ago, US troops have slowly started to creep beyond the Amara-Nasiriya line again
>suddenly Iraqis invade US occupied Kuwait, penetrating the thin screen of border guards and occupying the countryside
>the US army is caught completely by surprise
>US columns sent as reinforcements are ambushed and destroyed
>the US launches long range missiles at an Iraqi supermarket and post office in retribution
>it takes the US army 5 days to bring up troops to contest this incursion, now Kuwaiti villages are reduced to rubble by US air force bombing and artillery fire
>the US Foreign Ministry calls on the international community to condemn the heinous Iraqi war crime of attacking peaceful US soldiers
 
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If you confront shills or their cultists with even the most well established facts, their response isn't to engage in reasoned argument, it is to yell insults, copy paste talking points, and just fuck off and repeat their claims elsewhere.
You forgot their favorite: Posting unrelated videos of battlegore showing dead UKA soldiers instead of actual arguments. Or if forbidden from posting gore, posting videos (usually poorly sourced) of talks about unrelated US operations, and in general ignoring Russia & Chinese meddling because its only bad when the US does it.

I apologize for post spam. Didn't read all of it at once and I can't post proper quotes in edits.
You can quote a post, copy the text from the new post box, and post it into your edit.

>day 900 of Operation Iraqi Freedom
You forgot:
>Twitterati who have been condemning the UK's bombing of IRA weapon caches stored in schools and hospitals, and otherwise calling for the downfall of imperialism and colonialism, continue to be silent about the US adventures in Iraq.

Apologies to the IRA who for all the shit they got up to, wouldn't actually stalk through homes executing children. I'd apologize to the bongs for making them the jews, but Rothschilds so that part is apt
 
>500,000 American soldiers are dead or crippled
The population of Russia is approximately 125 million (according to them 150), the population of the US is over 300 million (according to some sources over 330).

To maintain proportion, it would have to be over a million dead and wounded on the side of the US.
If Ukraine is near-peer, what the fuck would that make Poland?

If Poland were in Ukraine's place in February 2022, it would be screwed. If you're asking about today, with today's positions and forces, Russia should be screwed, but Poland has an equally long history of stupid military decisions (1939: 'tanks will come this way, let's put an infantry battalion without AT equipment in this exposed sunflower field').

Most likely, if Poland, with NATO's support, attacked the Kaliningrad Oblast and bombed Belarus, we would see a shitshow on the Polish-Belarusian border with mutual murder of people (they don't like each other very much) and the occupation of Kaliningrad after a few months.
Most people in the US are okay with stomping some muzzies to keep the peace or even get some oil but would never want to fight China.
But what would the Sino-American war be about?

About Taiwan? Which one does China need as a "rebellious province", not as another Xinjang?

About international trade, where China must have access to the American market and the US must have access to Chinese production?

The delirium about a Sino-American or Sino-European war (yes, Russian propaganda also fantasized about it) is full blown Hitler in 1944 (who also believed that the USSR and the USA would start fighting each other at any moment).
 
But what would the Sino-American war be about?

About Taiwan? Which one does China need as a "rebellious province", not as another Xinjang?

About international trade, where China must have access to the American market and the US must have access to Chinese production?

The delirium about a Sino-American or Sino-European war (yes, Russian propaganda also fantasized about it) is full blown Hitler in 1944 (who also believed that the USSR and the USA would start fighting each other at any moment).
I just used China as the extreme example, not because it is in any way likely for there to be a war. The point was that being stuck in any long term war with someone close to a peer is something noone wants. I'd imagine even the biggest hawks would rather have one blowing up of sandpeople operation after the other in stead.

It's not like I could use Russia as an example of a US military peer (conventionally), given recent events.
 
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