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I'll share a trading setup with you guys. I like to use 20EMA + 65EMA on my charts, specifically on the 15 min, 1 hour, or 4 hour time frames. If the 20EMA on the timeframe of your choosing crosses above the 65EMA, that's an entry point to go long on shares or calls. The inverse is the 20EMA going below the 65EMA, in which case you'd exit if you're long, or use it as an entry to go short or buy puts.

I'll use this SQ chart in think or swim as an example.

sq4hrchart.jpg

In this chart, the 20EMA is a green, squiggly line, while the 65EMA is the red one. Towards the upper left side, the 20EMA went below the 65EMA, which marks our bearish signal. Hypothetically, if you were to go short or buy puts at soon as the crossover happens, then exit once the 20EMA crosses above the 65, then the breadth of your short would be something between $67.57 and $61.48.

Of course you don't have to wait for the inverse of whatever signal you used to enter, in order to exit. There are three other exit points here. These are marked on the bottom of the chart, and are based on RSI. Oscillating indicators such as RSI must cool down at some point, and the longer you hold while overbought or oversold, the more risk you're accumulating. Another way of deciding when to exit could be when the price retests either the 20 or 65EMA.

When it comes to picking a time frame, the signals on the 4 hour chart will occur much later than it would on say, the 15 minute chart, but they will be more consistent. The 15 minute chart will give you quicker entries and exits, but you will also be subject to false signals as well so it's less consistent.

Also, while I do my trading on Robinhood, my charting is done on think or swim. This is because Robinhood doesn't offer a 4 hour chart. If you want to try this system but are on Robinhood, you may need to test it on a shorter time frame like the 1 hour chart. You could also try using something like Trading View, I think.

I just hit it big off a gamble with Nvidia calls, but it wrecked my brain gluing myself to the screen (and hoping for a consistent market, which was a miracle for this week) so I might look into day trading options instead
Good job on your gamble.

One of the most important things you can do is to find a time frame and trading style that suits you, specifically. I know people who swing trade, who absolutely cannot deal with the intraday movements that come with day trading and vice-versa, I know day traders who refuse to hold anything overnight because they don't want to deal with the stress of seeing a winning position turn against them.

"If you are a short-term trader, recognize that selling a stock for a quick profit only to watch it go on to double in price is of no real concern to you. You operate in a particular zone of a stock’s price continuum, and someone else may operate in a totally different area of the curve. The key is to focus on a particular style, which means sacrificing other styles." —Mark Minervini (I have no idea who this guy is but someone shared his quote with me and I think it's true).
 
I just hit it big off a gamble with Nvidia calls, but it wrecked my brain gluing myself to the screen (and hoping for a consistent market, which was a miracle for this week) so I might look into day trading options instead
For your sanity, I hope you don't become the next Bossman.
For the laughter of the farms, I 100% encourage you to become the next Bossman.

Right now everyone I see is saying buying more NVDIA and some are trying to short them. In that case if your rich go buy supermicro SMCI (the motherboard manufacture for those AI chips.
Also of note, AMD should be a "safer" investment (relative to the AI bubble) than Nvidia (To think they were $1.20 at one point). On one hand their AI shit sucks... On the other hand, Intel's x86 division ain't too hot right now and intel can't bribe OEMs again.

TSMC maybe, depends on if Arizona fab can be done and if the PLA go into Taiwan like the US went into Korea.
 
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For your sanity, I hope you don't become the next Bossman.
For the laughter of the farms, I 100% encourage you to become the next Bossman.

Right now everyone I see is saying buying more NVDIA and some are trying to short them. In that case if your rich go buy supermicro SMCI (the motherboard manufacture for those AI chips.
Also of note, AMD should be a "safer" investment (relative to the AI bubble) than Nvidia (To think they were $1.20 at one point). On one hand their AI shit sucks... On the other hand, Intel's x86 division ain't too hot right now and intel can't bribe OEMs again.

TSMC maybe, depends on if Arizona fab can be done and if the PLA go into Taiwan like the US went into Korea.
SMCI seems interesting and I've been eyeing TSM, I also flipped Micron last week so tech is def worth looking at
 
SMCI seems interesting and I've been eyeing TSM, I also flipped Micron last week so tech is def worth looking at
SK Hynix also a good bet , I think there was a striking union at their factory in SK right now so they are severely undervalued (relatively)
ASML also a good bet since they make the UV lithography machines...
This is if the AI/semi bubble don't pop....
 
NVDIA is definitely a huge gamble, but they're probably safer for short-term call options than the other semiconductors just because their earnings are next week and there would probably be a run up leading up to it. I could be wrong, though, and options are always risky so this ain't financial advice.

The individual stock that I have along with my index funds had its first negative day in about 2 weeks today. I wish it'd drop more so I could get cheaper shares with next month's purchase.
 
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What the Hulkster says is true. I'd also like to add that aside from the usual hazards that come from trading earnings such as higher premiums paid plus a sudden loss of said premium via IV crush, the Jackson Hole symposium starts tomorrow and it will likely have some impact on the markets.

This leaves just a 4 day period between tomorrow and NVDA's earnings on the 28th, of which two of those days (not counting weekends, when the symposium ends on the 24th) will be subject to a market moving event. It's additional risk on top of an already risky gamble.
 
Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole are out.
Unfortunately it's Scribid and they can go fuck themselves instead of making me get an account:
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation andl abor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.

Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other, and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period. Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years. As we begin this process later this year, we will be open to criticism and new ideas, while preserving the strengths of our framework.The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humilityand a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges
Send these motherfuckers to the GULAG instead of Jackson Hole next time, they deserve it. Or flyover country like Idalia , Colorado and force them to touch grass. Somehow he thinks inflation will go down to a manageable amount without a recession.

Rate cut soon, but how much and when? My guess post election unless major choking before election night.
 
Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole are out.
Unfortunately it's Scribid and they can go fuck themselves instead of making me get an account:



Send these motherfuckers to the GULAG instead of Jackson Hole next time, they deserve it. Or flyover country like Idalia , Colorado and force them to touch grass. Somehow he thinks inflation will go down to a manageable amount without a recession.

Rate cut soon, but how much and when? My guess post election unless major choking before election night.
The necessity of a rate cut signals that the economy isn't as strong as we have been lied to for the past few years.
 
That was a very dovish speech. From what I gather, the Fed is well-aware that they need to shift weight from their first mandate, price stability, to the second, which is maximizing employment. They are signaling that now is the time to pivot, given the worsening unemployment data.

My thinking here is that we'll see our first rate cut in September. The Federal Reserve is a reactionary, data-dependent body. If unemployment, even with the revised numbers we've gotten in the past week, is still within whatever parameters they've established for themselves, we will get a 0.25bps cut.

We will only get a 0.50bps cut if the data justifies it, which would not be a good thing. It would mean that whatever bad thing that would justify such a move, has indeed come to pass and that there is no avoiding some segment of the economy (and by extension, society), having to eat shit. I highly doubt that the Fed would make such a move pre-emptively, it would not be in-line with their usual handling of policy.
 
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We will only get a 0.50bps cut if the data justifies it, which would not be a good thing. It would mean that whatever bad thing that would justify such a move, has indeed come to pass and that there is no avoiding some segment of the economy (and by extension, society), having to eat shit.
I view the economy in China to be a better predictor of future American economy. If we take out the real estate issue the industrial number absolutely suck right now.
I had expected that for the "decoupling" and moving production to the states (more like Mexico in NAFTA) would create jobs in the USA, but I have yet to find them outside CHIPS or otherwise subsidized jobs.
 
I view the economy in China to be a better predictor of future American economy. If we take out the real estate issue the industrial number absolutely suck right now.
I had expected that for the "decoupling" and moving production to the states (more like Mexico in NAFTA) would create jobs in the USA, but I have yet to find them outside CHIPS or otherwise subsidized jobs.
Care to elaborate on the industrial numbers?
 
Care to elaborate on the industrial numbers?
Forecasts that I am being told by folks in person are not good, expect 30% cuts on average to production numbers and furloghs to not go out of business. Lots of canceled ordered flowing in from Europe (2nd wave, 1st wave when the war kicked off). Some consumer goods are up numbers wise ironically but most expect up to 50% cuts in forecast. Lots of inventory being sold below cost stocked up in China domestically.
No longer giving a shit about enforcing IP like they did in 2015-2020.
There was a "riot" sometime back in Hunan where they fought the armed police apparently and hung banners off bridges written in blood. Another where they burned down a factory elsewhere.
CPC mulling banning showroom style e-commerce with influencers.

Propane canister and oxy tank business is booming though thanks to Hamas. Somehow small lathe tooling is backordered due to COVID (that may change quickly).

Agriculture alive but with malaise per usual (biggest cut is dairy sector). Lots of GDP growth in that area from the government ordering all prime farmland to grow only essential crops (so no coffee or specialty fruits), reversal of policy from 2013.
 
Forecasts that I am being told by folks in person are not good, expect 30% cuts on average to production numbers and furloghs to not go out of business. Lots of canceled ordered flowing in from Europe (2nd wave, 1st wave when the war kicked off). Some consumer goods are up numbers wise ironically but most expect up to 50% cuts in forecast. Lots of inventory being sold below cost stocked up in China domestically.
No longer giving a shit about enforcing IP like they did in 2015-2020.
There was a "riot" sometime back in Hunan where they fought the armed police apparently and hung banners off bridges written in blood. Another where they burned down a factory elsewhere.
CPC mulling banning showroom style e-commerce with influencers.

Propane canister and oxy tank business is booming though thanks to Hamas. Somehow small lathe tooling is backordered due to COVID (that may change quickly).

Agriculture alive but with malaise per usual (biggest cut is dairy sector). Lots of GDP growth in that area from the government ordering all prime farmland to grow only essential crops (so no coffee or specialty fruits), reversal of policy from 2013.
I was hoping for some more offical statistics but I take it.

For a bit I hope China faces the same issue that Japan did with it's lost decade. Would make any environmental goals for more reachable.

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I was hoping for some more offical statistics but I take it.

For a bit I hope China faces the same issue that Japan did with it's lost decade. Would make any environmental goals for more reachable.

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Sorry, nobody wants to be the one that went posting real numbers and win free gulag. China might be in a better position than Japan though since the US has fuckall for manufacturing compared to the 90s, it remains to be seen if any other country can become the workshop of the world (India's Foxconn debacle sure didn't and Africa is still, a shithole). Maybe Brazil or Mexico but one's got favela gangs and the other's got cartels running the show.

I think the first to complete and run their semi-conductor chain out of US/China wins this round. The two countries are too interconnected to go fullblown cold war right now. China requires food/raw materials from the US while the US industrial base is more or less non-existent (Maquiladoras can only do so much).

The CPC is aggressively cutting college admission numbers as they aren't happy about degree inflation. They plant to cut by 50% I think next year and are trying streamline and expand vocationals. Effectiveness of this strat remains to be seen.
 
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Filthy Jew (((Jim Cramer))) is bearish on PM stock because “I never recommend tobacco stocks”. He also says Dell is a buy.

Seeing one of my longs get a shoutout from JC gives me a good chuckle. Some people get gains by following Nancy Pelosi. You can also get gains by doing the opposite of what Cramer says.
 
Anyone following Supermicro's price drop due to insider trading allegations and bad accounting?
I have been. Today it dropped a ton because SMCI said they were pushing back their earnings so they could do some auditing (which is fair). The firm that exposed it also had a short position and other firms are saying they are full of shit since they haven't really produced any evidence of their claims. So I am not sure what to believe. With how much it's dropped now, I wouldn't short it though.

Some idiots were saying NVDIA was doing the same thing because they used shell corporations to get around sanctions. Those people are idiots. Earnings did seem to tank it though
 
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