Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Maginot said:
They really wanted to be true didn't they. Turns out not having access to McDonalds and Apple did not in fact cause their hearts to turn.
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We still have McDonald’s, just under a different name and now paying taxes to Russia instead, and you can still get Apple just fine. Sanctions, even at the most superficial level, haven’t worked.
 
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Russias response makes sense if the belief that they primarily want to get favorable k/d attrition style warfare and Ukrainians went on the attack where they dont get the benefits of being on defense and can be killed in the open.

Also if the goal was to provoke pulling forces from other fronts that have that goal then them opening up another front where they get to farm k/d for alot cheaper of investment also makes sense.

The alternate theory is they arent able to respond. But unless im missing something they could have pulled forces they normally couldnt use for the smo to push out the invasion and have decided not too.

Putin does care about PR. Just not the west. Im curious what China and the rest of Brics thinks about Kursk.
 
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Anasûrimbor Kellhus said:
they've been saying this since the beginning of the war tbh lmao.
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That sort of bloodthirsty thinking that got me to not side with Ukraine. Sus at first glance and worse, not rooted in reality, which is often the analysis of Ukrainian analysts. Their plan really does seem to be to outfight Russia militarily and not recognize possible ambushes, which is more or less how their big counteroffensives flop so hard. The curse of Boris Johnson strikes whoever believes in him hardest.
 
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Anasûrimbor Kellhus said:
they've been saying this since the beginning of the war tbh lmao.
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Yeah, that was kind of my point though I should made it clearer. We have been getting a steady supply of shovels, running out of ammo, washing machine chips, and the entire Crimean navy destroyed since February 2022. I never thought I'd live to see the day when the Western Journalistic apparatus would morph into Muhammed Saeed all-Sahhaf.
 
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The Foxtrot said:
I'm well aware, I live in a state that's very friendly to open and concealed carry. We don't have issues with fencehoppers trying to LARP at being conquistadors, but I wonder if the fact the Feds are letting it happen at all in "blue" states is a shit test.
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Do you mean sanctuary cities, where they have also embraced the homeless, addicts and deviants.

Susanna said:
We still have McDonald’s, just under a different name and now paying taxes to Russia instead, and you can still get Apple just fine. Sanctions, even at the most superficial level, haven’t worked.
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I remember eating tasty McDonald clone burgers at the end of the Soviet era, on a food cart, a few blocks away from Red Square (they had hand made golden arches on the cart) . There was no cheese, and the sauces were home made (you picked the sauce or russian cabbage salad).
 
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demicolon said:
Okay so it's been almost a month since the Kursk Kerfuffle. Last time I checked, they were battling over Sudha, now they captured Sudha and advancing despite casualties. Not a good look, especially since you can't use the excuse that mines are everywhere for the snails pace of Russian advances. Sad!
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If you're looking for Russian failure then you don't have to look far or long. The entirety of the Ukraine war can be understood as a failure of the Russians to effectively counter the NATO/Washington/EU bid in other ways. The Russian decapitation attack on Kiev ("SMO") floundered because of tactical and operational incompetence (Johnson's meddling notwithstanding). There is the Russian failure to hold on to Kherson and Kharkov region, and the abysmal performance of Russia's Black Sea Fleet. There is lots of Russian failure all around.

What is not a Russian failure is to lure the enemy with Russia's most ample asset, it's endless fields and steppes, into overextending its lines of supply, and grind itself to death. Historically, the invasion of Russian territory has signaled only one thing: the invader is now primed to perish in a cold and forlorn ditch, far away from home.
 
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Maginot said:
They really wanted to be true didn't they. Turns out not having access to McDonalds and Apple did not in fact cause their hearts to turn.
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This is anecdotal evidence of course but based on some of my friends, if Russians’ hearts are turning, they are turning towards China and other countries that welcome them with open arms.
 
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demicolon said:
I know that Battle of Kursk II: Electric Bogaloo is little but a PR move to prop Ukraine Army's morale and show off to the West, but 200k civilian refugees, an inoperational NPP (not notepad++) and snails-pace of the reaction doesn't make Russia look good. Their goal was to humiliate Russia and they achieved that. To me it proves that RA is good at artillery attrition but is very bad in terms of reacting to unexpected events. Not a good look but whatever.
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If Russia came up with some clever way of luring large numbers of defending troops from the Eastern front to something of lower military value, people would praise Russia's cleverness. The fact that Ukraine did it by itself without Russia doing anything to make them, is even better for Russia.

namelesstacotruck said:
Putin does care about PR. Just not the west. Im curious what China and the rest of Brics thinks about Kursk.
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They will assess it in real terms, coldly and pragmatically. The NAFO style propaganda is for regular folks. Xi Jinping's military advisors along with those of other nations, will correctly look at it in terms of actual military advantage which is minimal. Occupying a few parts of Kursk has some political impact perhaps, but near nothing economically or strategically. And any PR losses will be undone when Russia drives Kiev out of Kursk so they will perceive it as a temporary thing, I expect. If anything this simply hardens the attitude of the Russian public further in favour of supporting military action.

What's staggering to me is that Kiev / Z-Man seems to regularly confuse what is propaganda to the public with what is propaganda to political elites. It's an alarming confusion of what level is which as they seem to think the same stunts and reasoning used to the public is what will also win them favour with Western leaders. I suppose as Z-man is an actor that fundamental misconception might make sense. It's a deadly misconception, though.

I'm growing more towards that bizarre idea that Kiev is trying to throw the fight, as it were. Kiev is losing, Z-Man knows it. Continuing in the current direction just leads to more and steady grinding down of Ukranian numbers. Zelensky's goal is the preservation of his faction in power. He can't surrender. He can't win. Falling over and demanding NATO intervene to save him is honestly kind of plausible. But the situation has become Chaotic, in the mathematical sense of the word. Without information we do not have, we can only speculate.

Lemondale said:
Why wont they bomb Ukraine to the stone age (non nuclear)?
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Because, contrary to Western narratives, they do not want to. They would see this as a terrible tragedy and loss of life.

Russia only intervened in the Ukranian civil war after eight years and when Donbas and Luhansnk voted to break away from Kiev. They did a quick and abortive strike at Kiev in an attempt to bring about early negotiations which failed and since then have focused almost exclusively on the break away republics. Only recently some strategic action in the Northern borders. I'm not even convinced that Russia wants to occupy everything East of the Dneiper, for all that this would make a good natural barrier for future peace. Russia doesn't need more land, it doesn't need more natural resources. It doesn't even need an external war to distract from internal problems - which is often a cause of countries invading somewhere. Russia's goal is national security. All along they have kept a clear eye on their actual objective which is to force a neutrality commitment from Kiev and independence for the breakaway regions (which grew to four).

Going full Bomber Harris on Ukranian cities would be abhorred by ordinary Russians. The West seems to have developed an idea of war as being an effort to exterminate another people and anything less being weakness. Which is horrifying. That mindset is alien to a lot of the developed world outside of the USA. And you can add to that the fact that Ukraine is a recent invention. Many of these cities were Russian up until some Soviet administrative redistricting. And are still filled with Russian people. But even if they weren't, Russian people don't want that.
 
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Overly Serious said:
I'm growing more towards that bizarre idea that Kiev is trying to throw the fight, as it were. Kiev is losing, Z-Man knows it. Continuing in the current direction just leads to more and steady grinding down of Ukranian numbers. Zelensky's goal is the preservation of his faction in power. He can't surrender. He can't win. Falling over and demanding NATO intervene to save him is honestly kind of plausible. But the situation has become Chaotic, in the mathematical sense of the word. Without information we do not have, we can only speculate
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Since Russia has pretty much achieved its goals, could it be sticking to a fixed pace? So whenever Ukraine suffers a major personnel loss Russia will ramp down its attack force instead of pressing the advantage? Russia could overwhelm the border at every spot if they chose, but they would rather preserve their forces as much as possible. If Ukraine was to lose 90% of their forces, then Russia won't invade 90% faster but instead task 90% less of their forces into pressing the advantage.
 
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