- Joined
- Dec 4, 2013
Buckle up, buckaroos. The Treasury yield curve is de-inverting. This has been a 100% accurate predictor of recessions.
Stock Market, Business, and Investing General - News, Tips, etc
- Thread starter Feline Darkmage
- Start date
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
It might. Ubishit is stupid enough too pull an embracer. Remember Embracer went under and is restructuring because the leader got the gypped squeenix (Who got out of it because it was burning money like woke retards), and then got Sauds to fund it, and when the Sauds went "The fuck are you spending my money on?" this was Embracer's response.
Rootless Cosmopolitan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2024
We are obviously in a recession now. I don’t know how bad it’s going to get, but I really think this is it. Yield curve de-inverting, banks finally (!!) writing off bad CRE debt, Fed cutting rates to bail them out, increased market volatility, SAHM rule triggered. All the signs are here.
- Joined
- Jan 14, 2023
We are fucked. Let's get our asses raped.
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2019
I'll put this here.
Reason.
When the feds begin to reduce the Prime Rate.... The Market manipulators in the Housing market are going to Raise the prices of Houses. Because I am already seeing this in may parts of the US. Up to 25% sudden increase.
I'm also calling BULLSHIT on people saying that the housing market prices are in a big Decline.
Not quite true. Yes there are prices decling but not in the manner where it should be and not in areas that it could have been.
The market has been over heated for years and people have the idea that their house is worth 10 to 25% than what they purchased 3 or so years ago.
I'm getting very close of placing an example of the fucking greed of people just because of situation posted above.
It does not really matter on the mortgage rate. What matters more is the selling price in question.
Next. Do you really think that the decrease of the Prime Rate is going to help the middle class? I'm betting Inflation to increase because of it.
Because the Feds did not correct what the real inflation has erroded the average buying power of people in the US.
Gas is up.
Utilities are up... A lot.
Auto Insurance is UP
Housing insurance is UP.
Rent is UP.
Food is REALLY UP. 200 to 400% since 2019. As shown many times on here and on Tik Tok (Costco, Walmart are examples of the deception of cost increases).
Yea...
It's going to get interesting soon.
Reason.
When the feds begin to reduce the Prime Rate.... The Market manipulators in the Housing market are going to Raise the prices of Houses. Because I am already seeing this in may parts of the US. Up to 25% sudden increase.
I'm also calling BULLSHIT on people saying that the housing market prices are in a big Decline.
Not quite true. Yes there are prices decling but not in the manner where it should be and not in areas that it could have been.
The market has been over heated for years and people have the idea that their house is worth 10 to 25% than what they purchased 3 or so years ago.
I'm getting very close of placing an example of the fucking greed of people just because of situation posted above.
It does not really matter on the mortgage rate. What matters more is the selling price in question.
Next. Do you really think that the decrease of the Prime Rate is going to help the middle class? I'm betting Inflation to increase because of it.
Because the Feds did not correct what the real inflation has erroded the average buying power of people in the US.
Gas is up.
Utilities are up... A lot.
Auto Insurance is UP
Housing insurance is UP.
Rent is UP.
Food is REALLY UP. 200 to 400% since 2019. As shown many times on here and on Tik Tok (Costco, Walmart are examples of the deception of cost increases).
Yea...
It's going to get interesting soon.
DSP's Tax Lawyer
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2021
Just wait for the price of housing after these California laws go into effect that pay 125k for houses for illegals. Housing prices will go up at least 125k at that point
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2019
More or less agree. What I think will happen is that they will put in some sort of easement on your property tax instead. That way they can rob you year after year after year.
DSP's Tax Lawyer
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 1, 2021
If I was a seller and this thing passed, I am jacking my house price up at least 150k. You think you are going to use my tax payer dollars to buy my house from me? Get fucked
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2019
Agreed if it happens. But I think Newsom knows the dangers of making this pass.
Also I expect a few lawsuits will happen due to using tax payers money to not only help a foriegn entity ( illegials are considered a foriegn entites) but Racial Discrimation aganst poor Whites, Asians, etc that are nationalized citizens.
This is already happening in education and in businesses.
Do you think people are really going to let this sly?
There's money to be made in legal fee's and worse yet Newsom will get another loss looking like a fool nationally.
Why you think Black Reparations have not crossed his table yet it has been passed by the assembly? Because they know they will get sued and Newsom will look bad.
Remember that Sociopath is looking to be the next president. And if not? Why not the next California Senator?
It does run in the Family.
OR if Harris Wins, Expect Newsom to be part of that committee running the Government.
If that happens then expect reparations and money for illegals to pass
OR with a stroke of a pen Make all illegals, ... legal.
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
Why more people didn't buy SPY calls on Friday right before close is beyond me. Made a nice 60% return
Maybe. Maybe not. These "!00% accurate" predictors of recessions are not 100% accurate by any means or they're accurate if you allow the timeframe for it to happen to be very long
Junkers 87
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 7, 2024
Two years ago, word was being passed around in financial circles that the opposite; an inversion of the 2 & 10-year yield was the recession signal to look out for. I've seen economists write articles, insisting that this rule has a perfect track record. Fast forward to today and now the narrative has flipped.
Also, the left side of the chart marking the late 70's/early 80's shows the yield curve reverting, then inverting, all the while a recession was happening, not before. The reversion failed to predict anything in that regard.
With all that said, I'm not disregarding this chart entirely. The past is used to forecast the future and there are many examples of history rhyming. However, that same information can also be used to prevent exogenous events, rather than repeat them.
Correct. While we shouldn't ignore these signals, the fact is recessions are hard to predict. Retards and bullshit artists like Burry and Kiyosaki have destroyed their credibility by insisting for years that the next big one was coming, any day now. Economies and markets are so multi-faceted that we're able to come up with theories, despite being entirely man-made.
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
Economists have predicted 30 out of the last 3 recessions
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2019
Every time my dad shits his pants there is a blizzard. He shit his pants today, so get the snow shovels out.
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2019
It looks like my previous post was correct. Newsom Vetoed the Illegial Immigrant housing bill.
It was complete political suscide, regardless of his comments on his reasons why.
It was complete political suscide, regardless of his comments on his reasons why.
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
"The beatings will continue until your outlook looks better" - Federal Reserve
Personally I no longer trust any numbers put out by most goverment agencies aside from how much the average person is spending and how many motorists are insured (since you need insurance to have registration, so de facto mandatory since most Americans drive to work).
This doesn't account for the oh, you know like bajillion illegals right now (the real number is 25-30% I bet).
I like how Jensen's comment on AI not being just a chip single highhandedly drove up AI stocks despite it having zero statistical relevance to the SC industry. What a world we live in.
I found this article of news to be interesting (archive):
Berkshire’s Jain Sells $139 Million in Company Stock
Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Ajit Jain sold $139 million of Berkshire stock on Monday, reducing his ownership in the company by more than 50%, a sale that could be viewed negatively by investors.
This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.
- Joined
- Aug 4, 2021
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
There can be a lot of reasons for an insider to sell shares. They have to declare their sales way ahead of time (to prevent insider trading). I wouldn't look too much into it.
I bought $DJT puts right after it was unhalted. I made a few hundred from it and cashed out already. I probably should've held...
- Joined
- May 5, 2022
Fair enough, I just found it intrestering.
Other news:
China just raised the retirement age. Men from 60->63. White collar women 55->58, blue collar women 50->55.
Pension requirement went from 15 years to 20.
New youth unemployment numbers out as well ~18% excluding students who graduated ( a whole fuck ton). Double the number appropriately.
Rootless Cosmopolitan
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2024
There does have to be a recession at some point, though. I really don’t think it’s a bad thing:
1. Clears out zombie companies
2. Allows people, especially younger people, to purchase assets at lower prices
3. Periods of unemployment are usually short lived and serve to shift workers from unproductive to productive sectors of the economy
Suppressing recessions is a bit like suppressing wildfires. I don’t believe it’s actually a desirable goal long term. In fact, more frequent (and shorter) recessions are probably what is most desirable and we have been fucking ourselves by not letting it happen.
- Joined
- Feb 3, 2013
I 100% agree.
It's just funny how often they predict recessions and it doesn't happen, then they just go to the next prediction