Stock Market, Business, and Investing General - News, Tips, etc

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

I 100% agree.

It's just funny how often they predict recessions and it doesn't happen, then they just go to the next prediction

Well, isn’t a big part of the problem that recessions are being actively suppressed? I agree it’s funny, but I think the democratic system is set up such that recessions are seen as the “fault” of whoever is in charge, rather than just a “shit happens” kind of thing. So there’s a massive incentive to do bailouts, contagion management, lower interest rates, etc to prevent one.

 

[Hollywood Hulk Hogan]

Well, isn’t a big part of the problem that recessions are being actively suppressed? I agree it’s funny, but I think the democratic system is set up such that recessions are seen as the “fault” of whoever is in charge, rather than just a “shit happens” kind of thing. So there’s a massive incentive to do bailouts, contagion management, lower interest rates, etc to prevent one.

It's definitely part of it.

 

[reptile baht spaniard rid]

Suppressing recessions is a bit like suppressing wildfires. I don’t believe it’s actually a desirable goal long term. In fact, more frequent (and shorter) recessions are probably what is most desirable and we have been fucking ourselves by not letting it happen.

Given our current economical system based on stupidity and usury - bankruptcy and recession are necessary to keep everything working somewhat reasonably over decades.

Suppressing them results in insanity and worse situations when it does explode.

It’s tried to do those worse explosions two or three times in the 2000s and hasn’t been allowed to. When it blows, we’re taking Yosemite supercaldera.

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

Given our current economical system based on stupidity and usury - bankruptcy and recession are necessary to keep everything working somewhat reasonably over decades.

Suppressing them results in insanity and worse situations when it does explode.

It’s tried to do those worse explosions two or three times in the 2000s and hasn’t been allowed to. When it blows, we’re taking Yosemite supercaldera.

Not just our current system. We have records of economic recessions (and bailouts!) going back to Ancient Rome:

https://www.citeco.fr/10000-years-history-economics/antiquity-to-middle-ages/financial-crisis-in-rome

I do agree that economic repression makes these recessions longer and more painful. There hasn’t really ever been a “golden era” when we didn’t do these things though, so I don’t have a lot of proof other than just gut feeling.

My gut tells me we should have a mild credit crunch/fall in asset prices (with subsequent foreclosures, bankruptcies, and doubling of the unemployment rate) every 7-10 years, with it lasting 2ish years.

I have absolutely no proof of this tho and I’m just talking out my ass.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Not just our current system. We have records of economic recessions (and bailouts!) going back to Ancient Rome:

The argument against democracy and the republican form of goverment is that the voter eventually realizes he can vote himself more gibs and short-term relief from economic issues at the expense of future generations.
It's "more sudden" in authoritarian governments but the end result is economic collapse causing revolutions.

Suppressing recessions is a bit like suppressing wildfires. I don’t believe it’s actually a desirable goal long term. In fact, more frequent (and shorter) recessions are probably what is most desirable and we have been fucking ourselves by not letting it happen.

You can thank large corps and the banks learning that you can bet against the house and win if you're big enough.

My gut tells me we should have a mild credit crunch/fall in asset prices (with subsequent foreclosures, bankruptcies, and doubling of the unemployment rate) every 7-10 years, with it lasting 2ish years.

I was going to argue every 8 years but Covid/Trump threw that rule out the window. We're looking suspiciously similar to the panic of 1837 except by commercial real estate instead of cotton imho.

 

[Sweeter and Savoury]

omg I should have bought more shorts

Look at Ubisoft crashing right before our very eyes. I would never thought it would drop so fast, I thought it be six months or more but damn it's at 11 bucks right now.

WTB time machine plz.

 

[Junkers 87]

Took a small gamble yesterday on SPY based on using $VOLD as a way to interpret sentiment. Got lucky and sold at what happened to be near the top today.



Lots of chop yesterday when I bought in, but sometimes (emphasis on sometimes), looking at $VOLD as a way to interpret volume can also help to paint a picture of direction. In yesterday's case, the buying pressure outpaced the selling, as seen on the left chart, where a lot of the noise gets smoothed out to paint a clearer picture of the overall trend.

 

[Rootless Cosmopolitan]

The Fed just cut by .5, meaning they must think something is wrong. Inflation is still not at 2%.

Yeesh.

 

[TheRedChair]

The Fed just cut by .5, meaning they must think something is wrong. Inflation is still not at 2%.

Yeesh.

IMHO this will do the following:

1. Inflation will go up... faster than having no decrease or a .25% decrease.
2. Housing prices WILL go up. This I've already have seen in my region because of RETARDS pushing the rate increase.
3. PEOPLE will lose money on their MM and CD rates faster now because banks will lower their interest faster now.
4. THERE WILL BE NO JOB INCREASES IN THE JOB FORCE. REASON. CORPORATIONS ARE ALREADY CUTTING THEIR WORK FORCE. I think things WILL get worse.
5. GOLD+ metals will continue their rise in value.
6. FEDS will ONCE AGAIN PRINT MONEY.

Reasons?: THE ELECTION. People are sheeple these days. They do not do the research. Their research is Tik Tok.

WINNERS are going to be those who have money to invest and change portfolio.
LOSERS are going to be the rest of us.

People do not have money now. I'm seeing this more and more as people are not buying things as well as shopping less in certain stores.

Even in WalleyWorld. people are shopping only what they need.

 

[Stoneheart]

Reasons?: THE ELECTION. People are sheeple these days. They do not do the research. Their research is Tik Tok.

The Feds cant be that retarded... a big rate cut looks horrible for Kamala and house prices will not go down.

My guess is that the economy is waaay worse than everybody thinks and the fed just had to do it to keep alot of big companies from going belly up under all their debt.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

The Fed just cut by .5, meaning they must think something is wrong. Inflation is still not at 2%.

Yeesh.

Finally, I can make this joke:

Reasons?: THE ELECTION. People are sheeple these days. They do not do the research. Their research is Tik Tok.

Alas, the American voter has found he can vote himself money forever... Until a currency crisis sets in...

 

[Osama Bin Laden]

The Fed just cut by .5, meaning they must think something is wrong. Inflation is still not at 2%.

Yeesh.

can somebody explain this in fortnite terms?

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

can somebody explain this in fortnite terms?

Fed lowers magic number (ostensibly because too many idiots jumping out the battle bus can't make it to the ring) that determines how much extra you pay to jewish bankers, إِنْ شَاءَ ٱللَّٰهُ
All your weapons in game cost more for doing less.

WINNERS are going to be those who have money to invest and change portfolio.

Personally, I feel this is a not so gentle "nudge" to force people into the stock market for the big one. There's not much else to pivot to, maybe gold or silver? Or land, but most people can't afford that!
(Ammo might be a good investment...)

 

[tehpope]

Basically, they cut rates to encourage people to spend money to prop up the economy. So that Kamala wins.
This is magical thinking and won't fix shit. probably make shit worse.

 

[McWeaeselton]

can somebody explain this in fortnite terms?

Jerome is flossing on inflation like he just won the Victory Royale but the game isn't over yet. He's trying to show his bae Kamala he's got rizz so she'll duo queue with him for the next match. As a result were all about to get gyatted into the skibidi toilet frfr ong no cap.

 

[Osama Bin Laden]

Jerome is flossing on inflation like he just won the Victory Royale but the game isn't over yet. He's trying to show his bae Kamala he's got rizz so she'll duo queue with him for the next match. As a result were all about to get gyatted into the skibidi toilet frfr ong no cap.

i hate that i understood that better than the community happenings post

 

[TheRedChair]

Fed lowers magic number (ostensibly because too many idiots jumping out the battle bus can't make it to the ring) that determines how much extra you pay to jewish bankers, إِنْ شَاءَ ٱللَّٰهُ
All your weapons in game cost more for doing less.

Personally, I feel this is a not so gentle "nudge" to force people into the stock market for the big one. There's not much else to pivot to, maybe gold or silver? Or land, but most people can't afford that!
(Ammo might be a good investment...)

Ammo is always a good investment. Metals might be a good one as well.

I think in my case I'm going to buy another chest freeze and stock up on more food in bulk as feelings of 2021 and its effects by printing money will be felt one again.

 

[HarveyMCR]

The Fed just cut by .5, meaning they must think something is wrong. Inflation is still not at 2%.

All the analysts I follow predicted a 50bp cut at the highest. This isn't super surprising since you are right that the 12-month inflation rate is over >2%


However, if you look at the past 4-months though you'd see that inflation averaged 1.5% which is below the Feds target.


The majority of the indicators the Fed tracks have steadily decreased over the past 7-months. The indicators which have not gone down are either famously susceptible to substitution, which CPI intentionally overestimates (Dining-out, Transportation), or inelastic goods which rates have little impact on (Medical Care, Shelter)

The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.2 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter index increased 5.2 percent over the last year, accounting for over 70 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.

The increase in housing costs is well known at this point. The Feds keeping rates high is going to cause consumer to sit on existing properties instead of selling them (decreasing supply in the housing market) and disincentivize firms from building new housing units. This would only serve to send prices higher. The only way to alleviate the housing crisis is to build more units and get more properties on the market.

A 50 basis-point cut is reasonable. Hopefully, inflation continues to stay down, and they can further cut rates at a faster pace.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

 

[Kong Strong]

Pulled all of my money out of the s&p and loaded up on t-bills while the rates were still high, feeling pretty good about that rn. I can't see this not heading towards disaster.

 

[Niggergante]

All your weapons in game cost more for doing less.

But how does this relate to not being 2% inflation rate?