US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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TheSockiestSock said:
My friend in Christ, Trump isn’t riding up in his 64 to a McDs drive thru and looking at prices for a Big Mac, some idiot intern is doing it for him. And he isn’t perusing the receipt looking at how much it was either.
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I guarantee you he gets reports on the prices, if for no other reason than to have talking points.
 
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StarkRavingMad said:
It's also good optics for him to do things like this because of his personable demeanor to the "regular folks." Like I said in another post, compare these clips of Trump from yesterday to Kamala going into a Sheetz to buy a bag of Doritos a month ago. The place practically had to be cleared for her first, she needed someone to find the bag FOR her, and she didn't really interact with anyone. It was awkward as hell.

Trump didn't just give that mother $100 to help pay for her groceries, either ... He actually asked her questions about her family and complimented her children. He was friendly.

You see clips like the ones from yesterday, and the first thing that comes to mind is this: "This is the guy that the media tells me is Hitler incarnate? Really?"
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Worst thing she did was having a kid act out on "OMG FEMALE PRESIDENT" I was completely disgusted.
 
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Some one ran the numbers and it is actually possible for Trump to flip VA but it requires heavy red areas to run up the score as much as possible.

How many additional votes would Trump need to produce in rural Virginia to carry the state? Here’s the math.​

If rural Republican counties voted at the same level at Goochland and Powhatan counties, two Republican counties just outside Richmond, it’s possible.

Early voting is now underway in Virginia. See who’s on your ballot and where the candidates stand in our Voter Guide.

When Gov. Glenn Youngkin campaigned through the 5th Congressional District earlier this month on behalf of the Republican ticket, he urged Republicans to “blow it out in red counties,” the equivalent of a coach telling his team to run up the score.

In this case, the Republican goal is a pretty standard one: to run up that electoral score in rural areas to try to offset the Democrats, who are running up the score in the opposite direction in Northern Virginia and other metro areas.

In Bedford County, where Youngkin spoke at a rally, he had a specific goal: “We must win Bedford with 80% of the vote.”


The crowd cheered. I got out my calculator.

How realistic is that figure?

It’s possible — there are rural counties in Virginia that vote 80% or more Republican. In the 2020 presidential race, there were ten such localities, all in Southwest Virginia: Bland, Buchanan, Carroll, Craig, Grayson, Lee, Russell, Scott, Tazewell and Wise counties, with Lee heading the pack at 84.1%. This level of polarization is a very recent phenomenon. As late as 2012, there were no localities in Virginia that voted 80% or more Republican — and only one (Petersburg) that voted Democratic at that level.

Like those counties, Bedford has become more Republican, but at a much more gradual rate. Here’s how the Republican vote share in Bedford has changed from 2000 to 2020:

2000: 65.9%
2004: 69.8%
2008: 68.2%
2012: 71.3%
2016: 72.1%
2020: 73.1%

Looking at those trends, a jump to 80% seems unrealistic. However, let’s not lose sight of Youngkin’s main point: Any Republican victory in Virginia these days depends on a big turnout in ruby-red rural areas. A goal of an 80% Republican vote in Bedford (or any other rural county) is really shorthand for a more politically significant figure: The vote margin that county delivers. This is the political equivalent of that military saying about how amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics. In this case, amateurs talk percentages, professionals talk margins.

So let’s talk margins.

I’ve written in previous columns that while rural Virginia votes heavily Republican, it doesn’t vote at the same rate that many Democratic metros do. In those columns, I’ve made the case that Republicans should embrace early voting if they want to boost turnout in those rural areas. What I haven’t done is delve into the numbers. How high would rural turnout have to be for Donald Trump to carry Virginia?

Warning: Math ahead!

We have to start somewhere, so here’s where I will start: The 2020 results in Virginia. Let’s assume that Kamala Harris gets all the Joe Biden voters and every Trump voter then sticks with him now. We know that’s not exactly so — each side may gain or lose some voters and Virginia’s population has grown since then but, like I said, we have to start somewhere.

In 2020, Biden defeated Trump in Virginia by 451,138 votes.

Even if nobody switched sides, where can Trump go to find that many additional voters in Virginia (plus one more)?

Bedford County may be a tough place to look. Virginia’s statewide turnout four years ago was 75.08%. Bedford County exceeded the state average by a little — Bedford’s turnout was 79.7%. However, there were some places higher. Goochland County posted a turnout of 84.3%; Powhatan County 84.7%. They are also solidly Republican counties.

For the sake of argument, let’s round that up to 85% and set that as a goal. What if Republicans could get 85% of Bedford’s voters to go to the polls — and what if those additional voters voted the same way all the other voters did? That’s a potentially debatable “if.” However, as we’ve seen, Republicans have done well at producing lots of “new” Republican voters in rural Virginia, so it’s entirely possible that any new Bedford voters would vote even more Republican than the current ones. From 2008 to 2020, the Democratic vote in Bedford has declined by just -0.4% (just 49 votes) while the Republican vote has grown by 37.36% (an additional 9,683 votes). Some of that is due to population growth; Bedford (with Lynchburg on one side, the Roanoke metro on the other side and Smith Mountain Lake on a third side) is one of the fastest-growing localities in a low-growth part of the state. Still, what we’ve seen is that, on a net basis, all those additional voters have been Republican. In this thought experiment, let’s assume that Democrats have mined Bedford for every vote they can get, while every Republican can still find more by increasing the turnout.



The most recent State Board of Elections report shows Bedford has 64,380 registered voters, up from 61,031 four years ago. An 85% turnout would give Bedford 54,723 voters. If the Republican vote share in Bedford stayed the same as four years ago, that would be 39,948 votes, up from the 35,600 Trump got there last time — so a gain of 4,348 votes. If Republicans could amp that up to 80% of the vote, then they're talking 43,778 votes — a gain of 8,178 over four years ago.

The good news for Republicans: If they can boost turnout in Bedford, there may well be 8,178 additional votes to be found in Bedford.

The bad news for Republicans: That doesn't make much of a dent in that statewide margin, and Bedford is a large locality as rural counties go.

Let's keep going, though.

Most of Bedford County is now in the 9th Congressional District, Virginia's most Republican district. This is also a district that has the lowest turnout among Republican districts. Lee County, the most pro-Trump county in the state, only managed to turn out 64.2% of its voters four years ago. Buchanan County wasn't much better at 64.9%. These are small counties, population-wise, but there are still uncast Republican votes there. What if every county and city in the 9th District could manage the same level of turnout as Goochland and Powhatan, maybe a smidge more, and hit 85%? That would mean approximately 551,599 votes in the 9th District (I'm approximating because Bedford County and Roanoke County are both split between two congressional districts). Four years ago, Trump took about 72% of the vote in the 9th District — a total of 276,312 votes. If he took 72% in a district with higher turnout, in this case our mythical 85%, that means he'd poll 397,151 votes. That's 120,839 more votes than last time. At that point, he's reduced his statewide deficit by a little more than a quarter.

Cutting it from 451,138 to 329,299 doesn't bring him victory in Virginia, but it does bring him closer — and leaves 10 other congressional districts to make up the rest of that deficit through higher Republican turnout.



Here's how much the Republican vote has changed in each locality from 2008 to 2020.



Here's how much the Democratic vote has changed in each locality from 2008 to 2020.

Here's how much the Republican vote has changed on a percentage basis in each locality from 2008 to 2020.


Here's how much the Democratic vote has changed on a percentage basis in each locality from 2008 to 2020.

If the 9th District voted at the same level as Goochland and Powhatan, and could produce an 80% Republican share district-wide, then that's 441,279 Trump votes in the 9th District, an addition of 164,967 votes — and enough to cut his statewide deficit to 286,171 with 10 other congressional districts still left.


It's possible, of course, that Republicans could do all that and still not make up the deficits they'll have in Northern Virginia in a presidential year. However, higher rural turnout — much higher rural turnout in some places — could help the party elect a governor next year because four years ago we saw presidential-year Democratic voters sit out the governor's race at a much higher rate than presidential-year Republican voters. That's how Youngkin won the governor's race last time, and it's how a different Republican could win next year.

If you're like me, your eyes are glazed over by numbers right now. (Yes, even mine are.) The point, though, is that, yes, Republicans could produce even more votes out of rural Virginia. That would go against a lot of history — rural areas have typically voted at lower rates than more metropolitan ones. It might also require Republicans to embrace early voting in a more enthusiastic way than they have before. It might even require a paradigm shift that makes them act more like Democrats by pushing to register everyone they legally can — and then working to make voting easier and more accessible. Some of the Democratic innovations that Republicans hate most — such as ballot drop boxes or election-day registration — might help Republicans pick up more votes from casual voters in rural areas.


We live in a time when some of our politics seem topsy-turvy. This is one example. Youngkin may or may not be right in his policies — that's a matter of political taste — but he's right with his math. Republicans could produce more votes out of rural Virginia if they embraced some Democratic tactics.
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Archive: https://archive.is/vRFqu

I do think this is doable and it does seem the VA GOP is aware they might have a shot if they really get people out any way they can. A early win in VA would just deflate Harris the rest of election night and probably throw off any 3am mail drops.
 
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StarkRavingMad said:
It's also good optics for him to do things like this because of his personable demeanor to the "regular folks." Like I said in another post, compare these clips of Trump from yesterday to Kamala going into a Sheetz to buy a bag of Doritos a month ago. The place practically had to be cleared for her first, she needed someone to find the bag FOR her, and she didn't really interact with anyone. It was awkward as hell.

Trump didn't just give that mother $100 to help pay for her groceries, either ... He actually asked her questions about her family and complimented her children. He was friendly.

You see clips like the ones from yesterday, and the first thing that comes to mind is this: "This is the guy that the media tells me is Hitler incarnate? Really?"
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You know there’s tons of footage of Hitler interacting and being friendly with children, supporters, and animals right? He even had doggos!

Its like you guys know propaganda exists, but when it comes to Trump nothing is propaganda and it is obviously just wholesome because he is just such a nice guy dudes!
 
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TheSockiestSock said:
You know there’s tons of footage of Hitler interacting and being friendly with children, supporters, and animals right? He even had doggos!
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So like legitimate question, where are you going with any of this? I was willing to extend an olive branch when you took the time to explain your views, but all of your posts in this thread since then have been garden variety reddit-grade clapbacks that everyone’s just tired of at this point.

If you’re here to stir the pot, at least be funny or creative about it.
 
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TheSockiestSock said:
You know there’s tons of footage of Hitler interacting and being friendly with children, supporters, and animals right? He even had doggos!

It’s like you guys know propaganda exists, but when it comes to Trump nothing is propaganda and it is obviously just wholesome because he is just such a nice guy dudes!
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You know who else drank water?
 
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Dimension Sniper said:
So like legitimate question, where are you going with any of this? I was willing to extend an olive branch when you took the time to explain your views, but all of your posts in this thread since then have been garden variety reddit-grade clapbacks that everyone’s just tired of at this point.

If you’re here to stir the pot, at least be funny or creative about it.
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Their name literally says it's a sock account. it's probably some nobody putting on a personality but lacking the ability to,
 
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m1ddl3m4rch said:
I wonder what the unelected members of his administration will have to say to the world through their figurehead.
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"...they are finally cutting my strings and letting me rest..."
"...I'm very tired..."
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I almost want to feel sad, born as a puppet, died as a puppet but then he does or says something abhorrent and all my sympathy is thrown out the window.
 
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@Back me up!

I also believe that Virginia is winnable for Trump; been saying it since Youngkin officially de-fortified the VA elections a few months back. I really hope that the Virginia GOP doesn't sleep on this and that they recruit lots of volunteers to get people to vote.

Might make a big difference in VA to just tell Republican voters that there's a solid chance for Trump to win the state. Far too many voters like to stay home when they think their candidate doesn't have a chance and they think it's a waste of time to vote.

Even if Trump loses VA by a narrow margin, it still has the potential to spell trouble for Kamala in states like PA, NC, and GA because it shows that the electorate is trending red. If he closes the gap in VA, then I think he will comfortably win the Southern swing states at the very least.

Of all the states for Trump to cause an unexpected upset in, I think that Virginia is the most possible.
 
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