Hurricane Helene / Invest 97L

[#FF0000]

Are people evacuating in time?

A state of emergency was declared around 3 days ago, and I assume evacuation orders were put in place around that time, so I hope so. Never underestimate the defiance of a Florida man, though.

The automated Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) is showing ridiculously fast intensification with Helene.
For context, the ADT is an automated method using satellite data to estimate windspeeds, pressure and more in tropical cyclones. It's pretty damn good.
It operates from a scale of 1 to 8 (technically it goes past 8, but that's only ever happened once), and there's a limit on how fast the scale goes up, at about 0.5 per hour maximum.
From my understanding, the raw number for Helene is somehow going up faster than 0.5 per hour at the moment, going from 5.0 to 6.3 in a short period of time, and the final number, which has the 0.5 per hour cap, is "only" at 5.7.

This is going to catch a lot of people off guard unfortunately.

 

[#FF0000]

The whole Florida peninsula is under tropical storm force winds.
Winds are now 125 mph, and the NHC says that a Category 4 at landfall is likely.

 

[BIG BILL HELL'S]

National Hurricane Center (official government forecast site)

Just as an FYI I've always found their "Forecast Discussions" to be the most interesting and most informative in the longer term. It's also where they occasionally crack jokes!

Something else to monitor is the Hurricane Watch Net- amateur radio operators try to get reports out of the affected area and read the latest NOAA/NHC bulletins. It's usually pretty dry and kind of boring, but occasionally they'll get pretty intense weather reports from inside the storm. There's a link to live audio streams on their webzone.

 

[#FF0000]

NOAA Mission #17 is now in Hurricane Helene. This will likely be the last reconnaissance flight into Helene before landfall.
Link

Live update from the NHC starting now.
Link

 

[Jump]

If you want to listen to something in the background

WFLA out of Tampa: https://wflanews.iheart.com/

The big ham SARNET linked repeater network: https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/feed/35392

Statewide stream list: https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/stid/12

 

[#FF0000]

The eye has fully cleared out now. Automated ADT estimates now put Helene comfortably at Category 4. We'll see if the recon flight confirms that.

 

[#FF0000]

What the fuck...

 

[glass_houses]

What the fuck...

Yeah, your emergency services are anticipating mass body recovery operations, as opposed to search and rescue of live victims. Here's hoping that the lessons of Katrina have been learned.

Please take care of yourself and yours, kiwis in the path of this monster. You can buy another car; you can build another house; if something costs your life or the lives of your loved ones, the price is far too high.

 

[PotatoSalad4711]

View attachment 6458824
What the fuck...

Yeah that’s something I remember them doing for Katrina, people were writing their names and SSN on their arms. They’re basically saying you’re not going to be rescued in the middle of this storm, so good luck and all.

(Slightly ninja’d)

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

What the fuck...

Translates to "We'll come find your dumbass when we feel like it."

 

[Daddy's Little Kitten]

Shit is serious. Get the fuck out if you live near the water, or don't think your house will withstand the hurricane.

If it gets to Cat 4, good fucking luck. That's enough to uproot massive trees and damage weak cement.

 

[Anonitolia]

If it gets to Cat 4

I have bad news

 

[Smyrna]

No 'if' required.

684
WTNT64 KNHC 262218
TCUAT4
Hurricane Helene Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
620 PM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024

...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently investigating Helene
recently found that the maximum sustained winds have increased to
130 mph (215 km/h). The minimum central pressure has also decreased
to 947 mb (27.96 inches) based on dropsonde data.

 

[BIG BILL HELL'S]

They’re basically saying you’re not going to be rescued in the middle of this storm, so good luck and all.

...I don't recall saying "Good luck".

 

[Aib Ld]

My mom couldn't evacuate since lack of money but theres thankfully a public storm shelter nearby. There's a lot of people so I hope she will be okay. I'm worried if the trees fall on it, possible flooding in the shelter, and that she updated on me that there's a woman who brought two dogs that are not on a leash.

I'm not too well-versed on public storm shelters so I'm confused if they can handle debris and prevent flooding.

 

[#FF0000]

Considering how ballistic Helene is, and how there's still a few hours until landfall, I see a Cat 5 landfall as very possible unfortunately.
Kiwis, please stay safe. This is your very last chance to evacuate. If you can't, find shelter. You cannot survive storm surge of 20ft, and it doesn't even need to be that high.

Edit: Yeah, Cat 5 is likely. Automated ADT is showing extreme intensification still ongoing.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Her Eye is open! Not good right before land fall

 

[Smyrna]

Unless she falls off like Idalia did, Perry is fucked with a capital fucked.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Hurricane Hunter reporting 948 MB, wind speed to 145. Cat 4 confirmed

 

[BelUwUga]

My mom couldn't evacuate since lack of money but theres thankfully a public storm shelter nearby. There's a lot of people so I hope she will be okay. I'm worried if the trees fall on it, possible flooding in the shelter, and that she updated on me that there's a woman who brought two dogs that are not on a leash.

I'm not too well-versed on public storm shelters so I'm confused if they can handle debris and prevent flooding.

Shelters generally are designated to be somewhere on relatively high elevation/outside of flooding-prone areas. Unless it's a city on the coast the maximum risk would be things getting a bit wet at worst. You'll usually see block construction that is more likely to break a tree's fall than be crushed by it. Again there might be flooding in the sense that things could get wet from a leaky roof but minimal risk to life and limb.

The good news is the pragmatism of emergency services. They won't be helping individuals in their homes because it's a 1:1 ratio of people helped vs. helpers required. Shelters are near the top of the priority list behind things like hospitals. Hope she stays safe.