Doesn't matter.
There is no way to determine which dude in a dress is a threat and which isn't. How much money they shell out trying to convince themselves they're a woman doesn't matter. They will never be women and have no place in women's spaces.
And the bottom line is that as long as they're trying to access women's spaces, services, sports, etc.
they are all threats. And there are a few parts to this.
1. The kind of man who decides he can "identify" as a woman is already demonstrating a kind of dehumanizing misogyny that demonstrates a threat to women. These men consider themselves to be the high arbiters of what "woman" means, and they
always consider it to mean debasing, misogynistic stereotypes - for example, a trans-identified male might say, "I'm such a woman because I'm submissive in bed and physically weak," or "I'm a woman because I love makeup and fantasize about being fucked by men," reinforcing misogynistic stereotypes about women that aren't true. Positioning women as an idea that exists in a man's head, rather than as multifaceted human beings whose experiences and lives cannot be appropriated, shows a dangerous lack of consideration for women and women's humanity.
2. The kind of man who decides to access women's spaces, etc., where he knows he does not belong is already demonstrating that he does not respect women or women's boundaries, does not adhere to the social expectations and boundaries of society, and lacks empathy for women / sees himself as inherently more important than women. He is
already demonstrating behaviors that make him a threat to women. These men
know they don't belong in these spaces and that being there causes distress to women. They either don't care or they get off on it. Having these men in women's spaces makes the spaces more dangerous for the women in them - not just because the men may assault them, but also these men open the door for
other men who may assault them, since they are never content until they ensure every "women's" space becomes a unisex space. (This is not to mention the women who are directly harmed by these men even if they are not assaulted, such as rape victims who may be triggered by the hulking hon in the rape crisis center, homeless women who have been ejected from women's homelessness shelters because they objected to the presence of a trans-identified male, abuse victims who stop attending their group therapy because they don't feel comfortable disclosing their abuse to a man, children frightened in bathrooms, and so on.)
3. As I referenced above, opening the door for one of these males means opening the door for
all men. Period. If you allow trans-identified males into a women's space, you are allowing any man who says "oh yeah, I'm totally a woman, sure" in, because you're not allowed to challenge these men based on their presentation - and even if you could, it would be meaningless, because any man can slap on a wig and fishnets. So even if you somehow managed to believe, despite everything I said above, that trans-identified males are primarily virtuous sweet innocents who wouldn't harm a fly and have "feminine souls" or whatever the fuck stupid shit, that doesn't matter because Joe Rapist off the street can now walk into the rape crisis center, declare that he feels like a woman on the inside, and proceed to terrorize the women in the center as much as he wants, because "woman" no longer means anything thanks to these men.
Trans-identified males are a threat and danger to all women. Every single one of them. There is just an unbelievable amount of misogyny needed to decide you know better than women what a woman is and how it feels to be a woman, and no man that misogynistic is safe for women. Period, end of story.