Hurricane Milton

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Smyrna

kiwifarms.net
Joined
Jul 27, 2024
Tampa Bay dodged a bullet with Helene. It might not be so lucky this time.

The National Hurricane Center is about to initiate advisories on Tropical Depression 14. Almost all models (both global and hurricane-specific) strengthen TD14 to TS and then Hurricane Milton.

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Copied + pasted from the Helene OP;

Some relevant links:
Tropical Tidbits (great website for computer models)
National Hurricane Center (official government forecast site)
 
Weird how all these hurricanes are killing white people specifically. I guess that’s just election climate change.
Are you saying that you think that they are controlling the weather and specifically targeting white people with Hurricanes?

What makes you think they are competent enough to not hit New Orleans and cause Katrina 2?
 
White boomers who retired in Sarasota/Bradenton or go there for vacation might be hit by a category 5 and be dead.
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That's all the simulation runs they have? Not good. They need more to get a more continuous distribution, otherwise evacuation recommendations will be wrong.

I mean, looking at the paths already there, I wouldn't bet on a Tampa miss.
 
Most of the models are pretty aggressive with Milton, showing at least a Category 3 around Tampa.
The main wrench in the forecast is possible interactions with dry air - Helene had similar issues early in development.
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One important thing to remember when looking at track: storm surge happens when wind pushes water onshore, not offshore - hurricanes spin counterclockwise, and thus, a northern landfall (eg. around Dunedin) would be worse for Tampa Bay than a landfall south.
 
WTF is wrong with this season. What is with all these Hurricanes blowing in from the West. The Superstitious side of me is saying that all these wild storms in the month of October means the leadership of the nation has angered heaven, and as we approach the night of Samhain when the veil between this world and the fae grows weakest, the wrath of heaven becomes more pronounced.

But that is just silly talk.
 
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