Hurricane Milton

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My family in Florida aren‘t evacuating. Dad is near Naples and said he just helped put on shutters for his neighbors (they’re all elderly). He proceeded to go on a rant about government weather control and that climate change is engineered by the government so we surrender to trans humanism and digital ID. 🤔. How screwed are the areas south of Tampa?
How close is he to the coast? Naples is projected to get 6 feet right now. I would bump that up to 8 feet for the clown world "Fuck You" though. And this assumes Milton doesn't do a shuck and jive further south of Tampa.

 
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Milton is undergoing its first Eyewall Replacement Cycle. Since it's so small, it should be done by the morning, but it will weaken in the meantime. After it's done, it'll be a larger storm and will be more resilient to wind shear.
 
My family in Florida aren‘t evacuating. Dad is near Naples and said he just helped put on shutters for his neighbors (they’re all elderly). He proceeded to go on a rant about government weather control and that climate change is engineered by the government so we surrender to trans humanism and digital ID. 🤔. How screwed are the areas south of Tampa?
Same with family that rode it out for Helene. Insisted that this time wasn't different despite the fact that THEY'RE AT THE EYE OF AN EVEN WORSE STORM. Fucking idiots, we've spent the entire day trying to convince them and they are insistent that it's just my poor mother being a nag again. Despite the evacuation orders. Despite the 10-15 feet of water predicted to hit them. Despite everything.
 
Same with family that rode it out for Helene. Insisted that this time was different despite the fact that THEY'RE AT THE EYE OF AN EVEN WORSE STORM.
Same with some elderly people I know in Tampa Bay area. They've got generators and their house isn't in a flood zone (believe it or not), so they think they'll be fine.

But there's so much debris from the last hurricane everywhere, there will be previously chopped down tree trunks blowing through the air when Milton hits. There's wrecked house parts, fence parts and every other piece of dangerous garbage you can imagine. It will all be smashing into houses and cars soon.
 
Same with some elderly people I know in Tampa Bay area. They've got generators and their house isn't in a flood zone (believe it or not), so they think they'll be fine.

But there's so much debris from the last hurricane everywhere, there will be previously chopped down tree trunks blowing through the air when Milton hits. There's wrecked house parts, fence parts and every other piece of dangerous garbage you can imagine. It will all be smashing into houses and cars soon.
Helene was also a glancing blow. She kissed Tampa, but she didn't go all the way. Milton is coming in raw dog. We will know how bad it will be tomorrow morning after he finishes the current eyewall replacement. But the amount of moisture and the convective force at the top levels of the storm is not optimistic. Even if he weakens at approach, it will simply be a distinction with no difference. He's coming and he's bringing the entire Gulf of Mexico with him. Anyone in a mandatory evacuation zone has to leave now.
 
Same with family that rode it out for Helene. Insisted that this time wasn't different despite the fact that THEY'RE AT THE EYE OF AN EVEN WORSE STORM. Fucking idiots, we've spent the entire day trying to convince them and they are insistent that it's just my poor mother being a nag again. Despite the evacuation orders. Despite the 10-15 feet of water predicted to hit them. Despite everything.
You have to live there for a while to really get the mentality of the Florida man, and this especially applies to the old ones - they have simply done this shit too many times to have a healthy response to when "the big one" actually hits.

My first hurricane season down there I thought "well shit this is gonna be like tornado season x5" and bought plywood and fresh water by the gallon. My neighbors bought liquor at Albertsons and chuckled at me. When you go through this as a cycle every year a lot of long time Floridians get numb to it because they've seen so many come by and do their thing or avoid the area entirely. The problem is there's always that legend of "the big one" that hit so many years ago, virtually every big beach town in Florida has some local story about a huge hurricane that came through at some point and did a fuckton of damage and is legendary in the area - I don't think a lot of them recognize that it's -their turn- to get hit by the once-a-century storm. It's been a century since Tampa was hit by anything like this and that last one disappeared some islands and made new ones, I dread seeing what this beast will do even as a cat 4.
 
You have to live there for a while to really get the mentality of the Florida man, and this especially applies to the old ones - they have simply done this shit too many times to have a healthy response to when "the big one" actually hits.
That is the thing though. There hasn't been a big one for Tampa and Fort Meyers. Sure, they get Hurricanes all the time. But not direct hits, and certainly not direct hits from something on the top 5 of all time list. But that is a difference without a distinction. Milton is in the running for beating out Wilma right now for the #2 slot..

The last time a major Cat 4 and above Hurricane went right up Tampa Bay was the 1921 Storm. After that, we had Hurricane Donna in 1960, which was just a Category 4 that made landfall as a 3.

And that is it basically unless we want to go back to the 19th century.
 
How close is he to the coast? Naples is projected to get 6 feet right now. I would bump that up to 8 feet for the clown world "Fuck You" though. And this assumes Milton doesn't do a shuck and jive further south of Tampa.

10-15 minutes from the coast. He said “we don’t get storm surge here”.

@Sithis just did a great rundown of the “elderly Florida man” mentality. They are numb to panic when it comes to hurricanes at this point.
 
The last time a major Cat 4 and above Hurricane went right up Tampa Bay was the 1921 Storm
That's the "legendary, once in a century storm" I was referencing.

Pretty much everyone in the area knew that story. It was told to tourists as they went to Caladesi. Some local restaurants would even feature newspaper clippings from the storm's fallout or other bits of memorabilia. It has been an event of local fascination for a long time with many of them seemingly not thinking that it could happen again, or maybe the thought is that the reason the old storm did so much damage was weaker infrastructure. Charlie looked like it was gonna hit Tampa head on but veered off.

This storm is going to change the landscape figuratively and literally for Pinellas and Hillsborough counties.
 
10-15 minutes from the coast. He said “we don’t get storm surge here”.

@Sithis just did a great rundown of the “elderly Florida man” mentality. They are numb to panic when it comes to hurricanes at this point.
Welp, here is a handy dandy explainer.


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Basically everyone in Red and Orange= GTFO. Yellow and Green= Please Get out but if you love misery I guess you can stay.

If they are in Zones A, B and C, they are at extreme risk of death. D, E and F they should be "okay" So long as Milton moves to the north. If however Milton comes ashore at Fort Meyers and Naples instead of Tampa, well...
 
My family in Florida aren‘t evacuating. Dad is near Naples and said he just helped put on shutters for his neighbors (they’re all elderly). He proceeded to go on a rant about government weather control and that climate change is engineered by the government so we surrender to trans humanism and digital ID. 🤔. How screwed are the areas south of Tampa?
He is correct thoughbeit...
 
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