2023 Israel-Palestine Armed Conflict

Residents of a Christian town near Sidon set up roadblocks to prevent Hezbollah from entering:

EyeGuy said:
Hezbollah's Al Mayadeen reports that Esmail Qaani will receive a medal from the Supreme Leader on Monday. Will he no-show again?
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Monday has passed and still no sign of Qaani.
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What's with all the x-ray photos of completely intact bullets embedded in people's heads? I'm no Paul Harrell. but are we meant to believe that a supersonic projectile would lose enough energy to remain in the center of somebody's skull with zero exit wound and no visible catastrophic soft-tissue injuries? It's led to some good memes though...

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porkypork99 said:
I think us putting thaad and troops on the ground is more of sending a msg to iran that if you strike back on israel after israel attack, we might or might not consider that a direct attack against us troops(wink wink).

if you attack israel,you now attack the us too since we have troops there so we might or might not nuke you in return.

really doubt the thaad adds much of anything other than that.
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Biden just said (well told Austin to tell Iran in the official manner) that Iran tries to (or succeeds in) assassinating Trump the USA will see that as an official act of war (against the USA).
 
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The moment Israel blows up Iran's nuclear/oil facilities, Iran have said that they're going to blow up the oil facilities of every single other nation in the Middle East, and they have the ability to do so. This would fuck the global economy and the US over so incredibly hard that there's no way the US wanted to see things head in that direction - it'd instantly mean the loss of the election and a total discrediting of government policy as gas prices rose to a level that made the majority of the US population economically unviable.
 
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Lengthy Sex Derail said:
The moment Israel blows up Iran's nuclear/oil facilities, Iran have said that they're going to blow up the oil facilities of every single other nation in the Middle East, and they have the ability to do so. This would fuck the global economy and the US over so incredibly hard that there's no way the US wanted to see things head in that direction - it'd instantly mean the loss of the election and a total discrediting of government policy as gas prices rose to a level that made the majority of the US population economically unviable.
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Would be funny though since it'd mean them making an enemy of every other country in the region. Wonder what it would do to the nature of the various militias or whatever they've supported in the Middle East.
 
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EyeGuy said:
The IDF took their first Hezbollah prisoner:
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Three more:
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*The IDF forces arrested three terrorists from the 'Radwan Force' of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in southern Lebanon*

During the activity of the 13th Battalion forces in the Golani Brigade in South Lebanon, an underground shaft was located inside a building used by the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
The forces surrounded the building, where three terrorists of the Radwan Force were entrenched, who were found alongside many weapons and equipment for a long stay.

After the terrorists surrendered, they were captured, arrested and interrogated by Unit 504 field investigators and then brought to a correctional facility for further investigation in the country.

The forces of Golani's brigade combat team continue their activities in the area, locating weapons and destroying infrastructure of the terrorist organization Hezbollah.
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The IDF released footage from the interrogation of the Hezbollah terrorist captured earlier this week. In it, he says that all of his commanders fled because they were afraid of the IDF:

*Documentation from the interrogation of a Hezbollah terrorist who was arrested in southern Lebanon: "They all ran away. After the assassination of Nasrallah, they did not see any of them"*

During the activity of the IDF forces in the southern Lebanon area at the end of last week, an underground shaft was located in a building leading to the area where terrorists were operating with an exit shaft nearby.

The forces surrounded the building, investigated the tunnel shaft and located an area where the arrested terrorist, Vadah Kamal Younes, was entrenched.

After the terrorist surrendered and was arrested, he was interrogated in the field and then brought in for further investigation by Unit 504 investigators in a prison facility in Israel.

In his investigation, he said: "They all ran away, all four (the regional commander and his deputy), from the beginning they already ran away", in relation to the Radwan Force he said: "They are of little faith, people without religion, they went in to get money and that's it, they ran away because they were afraid of the IDF. .. They planned to respond to the attack, to advance to the Galilee, but after the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, they didn't see any of them."
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Harambe said:
The US has influence over how many Israelis die in the conflict, and what kinds of weapons are used in the conflict, and how quickly Israel will escalate to an actual genocidal war to resolve their problem. There is no government that could plausibly be formed in Israel that would not be fighting this war right now full tilt. If BDS hits Israel in a big way and the US halts arm shipments and breaks its own obligations while pissing off untold numbers of wealthy, intelligent, and previously fairly patriotic jews, the Israelis will be stuck wth only extraordinary violence as a deterrent rather than their missile defenses. Israel would rather become North Korea before they become South Africa. Their founding historical-myth is them fighting and winning wars with cobbled together equipment and a desperate will to survive against the bloodthirsty savages.

The US can only influence Israel up to a point, and using this leverage would make the war more savage, more risky, and harder to shape an outcome with. Iran won't listen to the US at all, and the Israelis are not going to settle for being surrounded by a bunch of telegenic murderous fucking savages. There is no leverage the US has that could really keep Israel from fighting this war, their political and military classes both see this as a necessary and provoked war of survival.
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Completely agree, problem is the people who want to influence Israel and will help cost Harris the election are perfectly happy to turn this war into a bloody violent savagery if Israel refuses to become Palestine (South Africa middle east edition). The point I'm making is the US government and current admin does have influence over Israel, but refuses to do so. It'll cost them the election, and will fundamental reshape the democrats approach to how they treat Israel in the future.

SBG said:
Would be funny though since it'd mean them making an enemy of every other country in the region. Wonder what it would do to the nature of the various militias or whatever they've supported in the Middle East.
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Iran is already an enemy of or has a hostile relationship with nearly every other power in the region.
  • Iraq has historically been the enemy of Iran (the 1980-88 war springs to mind) and the current is US aligned government
  • Kuwait has historically been the enemy of Iran by aiding Iraq during the previously mentioned war, and is a current ally of the US
  • Yemen is in the middle of a civil war that is being prolonged via Iran and their support of the Houthis
  • Saudi Arabia is actively engaged in the war in Yemen against the Houthis (ally of Iran)
  • Jordon has wanted no part in anti-Israel wars
  • Egypt is in the same boat as Jordon
  • Lebanon of course is held hostage by Hezbollah and can't wait for Israel to stamp them out of existence
  • Syria is the only remaining hostile nation to Israel that shares a border with Israel, and the only ally Iran has near Israel
  • Turkey is US allied even if they aren't hostile to Iran, but shares a common interest with Iran (stamping out the Kurds)
  • UAE is the only nation without a border with Israel to sign a peace treaty with Israel (the other two being Jordon and Egypt)
  • Oman, Qatar, Bahrain, I have no clue.
Iran is either not liked or the nations it would strike have little reason to turn on Israel and face the wrath of the US.
 
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