US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

I didn't say his momentum stalled, he did. I mean that there could be a high turnout of white women in the swing states that could cause them to stay blue, especially since for weeks all they've seen in the media is that Trump is a Nazi and will take away their abortion rights. Don't underestimate how stupid the average voter is. "Vote to get him out of the way for good" resonates well in this election and the last election that Trump lost.

Women turn out is same as it was during 2020 and 2022 election. Large number of women turnout in NC, Georgia and Arizona are republicans anyway.

In rust belt, Trump has huge turnout operation in Pennsylvania.

Puerto Rico shit isn't changing anything.

 

[Nuns with guns]

You guys are all retards for falling for @George Lucas ’s bait and he continues to be an excellent troll.

 

[Gehenna]

I know, but Rasmussen is usually pretty accurate. I don't like it being +1 Harris this close to election day.

Rasmussen also has a margin of error. They are not wildly inaccurate though. Keep in mind a few things, this is a 48 for Harris and 47 for Trump. With 2 saying they will vote third party and 3 undecided. That three undecided is expected to break for Trump pretty significantly.

So it is within the margin of error -and- more nuanced.

 

[Gar For Archer]

We will see on Election day, I do suspect record breaking Democrat turnout on Election day unfortunately after how unhinged the news is

That same unhinged news has failed to drive Dem early voters, and Dems are much more likely to vote early than on Election Day. You’d have to give me at least some kind of explanation for why you think Dems are suddenly going to show up in full force on Election Day when their early voting numbers have been rather tepid.

 

[Lian Xing]

Look at Virginia. If VA gets called quickly on election night, Trump won’t win. If it takes a long time to get called, Trump probably has it.

This is reasonable. It is exactly what we saw with VA in 2016.

 

[Leaf Wage Slave Jr]

You guys are all retards for falling for @George Lucas ’s bait and he continues to be an excellent troll.

At least he puts some effort into it and isn't just screeching into he void like a retard.

I can respect the effort. The fact he's been doing it ITT for this long and people still fall for it amuses me, which is bonus points.

 

[BallsMcLongDong]

Disappointment that JD wasn't a Twin player, but not everyone can be right.
#freetwin#itwouldn'tevenbegoodanymore

 

[mlanguishi]

I don’t want to bring the energy down here fellas, but I think we should be deeply suspicious of these projections.

Why would polymarket be near 70:30 when all Harris needs to win is basically PA which is polling at <1%? If I was a betting man I’d have a considerable sum on Harris. Those odds are insane.

Also, a number of swing states that currently show a narrow edge for Trump have senate races with Democrat candidates in the lead.

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Even in “deep red” Texas, the senate race is within margin of error. Ohio is considered solid red territory for Trump yet the democratic incumbent is leading by 2pts.

Am I really supposed to believe a statistically significant number of Trump voters enter the booth and vote for a democratic senator? That doesn’t make any sense.

I fear swing states will actually go for Harris. This is even before any election fuckery in Philadelphia.

They always keep teasing Cruz will lose. But I doubt it. The real bad one there is Cornyn anyway, one of the lamest RINOs that seems to never get talked about or do anything and never has any issues.

ETA the 'right' situation is for conservatives to be cautiously optimistic. It of course could still go bad.

 

[#FF0000]

In the face of everything else, which is only ramping up support every hour? What a strange turn to doom pill.

It's Monday morning and you're blackpilling.

I'm not blackpilling or anything, just stating my opinion on something. It probably won't affect the election too much, and Trump will still win in the end.

 

[LurkTrawl]

So many scenarios, I think the idea that he is very likely to win are exagerrated.

I think his Rogan appearance put him over the bar. Both him and Rogan did exceedingly well, better than my expectations of either man. I haven't exactly been timid about my opinion that he was very likely to lose, and I still think it could happen but it would certainly not be legitimate, and it'd come at the cost of the majority of Americans losing faith in the electoral process. Hundreds of millions of people. There's also real considerations that the jig may very well be up, and that perhaps it's just not worth fucking cheating again.

It also hit me the other day that at a certain percent of votes counted/voter turnout they'll have to destroy rather than add ballots. Someone go ahead and correct me if I'm wrong since I'm just guessing here but, I cannot possibly imagine that it's as easy to destroy ballots as it is to fake them, and they made it really fucking obvious last time even with all the external factors they could have mustered short of WW3 helping them.

He may lose the election but there is no scenario in which the establishment wins it, at least.

 

[George Lucas]

You trust pollos and journos? You're lost already.

What the hell else are we supposed to go off of? 2020 taught us that enthusiasm doesn’t matter. Trump was pulling the same kind of rallies in 2020 as now compared to his opponent. Now they are bigger, but COVID’s over, so it’s hard to make a direct comparison.

I will say that Kamala seems less appealing then Biden, but that’s subjective.

If we can’t use polls, what can we use. We have no idea what the mail-in ballots are going to look like right now. Correct me if I’m wrong.

The models and betting markets are going off of state polls and those are a lot less frequent then the national polls. The Trump wave we see that pushed the betting markets to 60/40 could already be out of date. The Rasmussen poll should be a big alarm to everyone in this thread.

I am being one hundred percent serious right now. There is nothing to me that indicates Trump is favored to win at this point, other than I think PA is a lock because of Butler, but the weird polling in NC is fucking up what I would consider to be good odds.

 

[mlanguishi]

I am being one hundred percent serious right now. There is nothing to me that indicates Trump is favored to win at this point, other than I think PA is a lock because of Butler, but the weird polling in NC is fucking up what I would consider to be good odds.

That makes no sense. More trolling. Mostly because if he wins PA and AZ which looks VERY likely now he almost certainly wins. That's not 'nothing'.

 

[LurkTrawl]

2020 taught us that enthusiasm doesn’t matter.

2016 taught us before that polls don't matter.

Meaning you ignored the lesson of 2016 to slurp down what was force-fed to people to justify the steal of 2020.

I legit don't care if you think he'll win but please for the love of all that's good stop telling people polls are worth fucking anything. They aren't much better than haruspicy.

 

[ForTheHoard]

I talked to my 31 Puerto Rican friends this morning and they are telling me that they were leaning to Trump but the offensive joke was a bridge too far for them and now they are voting Harris and down ballot Democrat.

Looks like Trump stepped on a rake. I don’t think there’s a way for him to weasel out of this one.

I know a few Puerto Ricans and I don't think any of them would ever vote for a woman.

If you thought Hinchcliffe was too dirty for the Garden, you should have seen Andrew Dice Clay there in the 80s. Trump was probably at those shows.

Hickory dickory dock, Kamalas only here because she sucked Willy Brown's cock. OOHHHH!

 

[Nuns with guns]

I don’t want to bring the energy down here fellas, but I think we should be deeply suspicious of these projections.

Why would polymarket be near 70:30 when all Harris needs to win is basically PA which is polling at <1%? If I was a betting man I’d have a considerable sum on Harris. Those odds are insane.

Also, a number of swing states that currently show a narrow edge for Trump have senate races with Democrat candidates in the lead.

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Even in “deep red” Texas, the senate race is within margin of error. Ohio is considered solid red territory for Trump yet the democratic incumbent is leading by 2pts.

Am I really supposed to believe a statistically significant number of Trump voters enter the booth and vote for a democratic senator? That doesn’t make any sense.

I fear swing states will actually go for Harris. This is even before any election fuckery in Philadelphia.

Plenty of states split the ticket. Latinos in Texas usually do this because they see both parties as evil and this is their way to “keep the rails.” For Texas I’m more worried about county turnover. Cheating or not, people don’t realize how close Texas was to flipping in 2020 and I just hope the Beyonce rally hurt more than it helped.

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

The Tony thing doesn’t matter at all and it’s sad that there are people on this website pearl clutching over it.

Meanwhile Trump’s momentum has stopped and the polls are switching back and you retards give me trash cans for pointing that out.

This might be the most sophisticated bait yet.

"You guys are faggots for dooming and also fuck you Trump's fucked."

Brilliant. It's a fine red wine with notes of human feces and urea.

 

[Lian Xing]

The Rasmussen poll should be a big alarm to everyone in this thread.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Harris and 47% would vote for Trump. Two percent (2%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (emphasis added)

If I am interpreting this correctly, a national poll is nearly meaningless when electoral votes are the goal. Trump could be -2 or -3 in this poll and still take the election on electoral votes just like 2016.

 

[Zbk3VmLfujjzjxBd43tL]

People are giving you trashcans because you've done this baiting troll too many times in a row, all in the same thread. After a while you just run out of fish, no matter how much bait you toss out. These waters done been fished out, best to find a new water hole.

Because you're immunized to logic as you've surrounded yourself in an echo chamber. When it's 24/7 Trump fans and you only have curated "lol libs r dumdums" A&H posts as your news, it's easy to think it's going to be a blowout. Instead people are making the same pie in the sky predictions as 2020, when Trump ran against an even weaker opponent. Like people in this thread said Minnesota would go for Trump because enough urban nigs and spics and whites secretly were sick of the Floyd worship.

We will see on Election day, I do suspect record breaking Democrat turnout on Election day unfortunately after how unhinged the news is

Yep. Just like last year. And don't forget the post-Election Day turnout in swing states! All those 110 year olds voting Democrat the week after the election will swing the election again, just like 2022 and 2020.

2016 taught us before that polls don't matter.

Meaning you ignored the lesson of 2016 to slurp down what was force-fed to people to justify the steal of 2020.

I legit don't care if you think he'll win but please for the love of all that's good stop telling people polls are worth fucking anything. They aren't much better than haruspicy.

But the polls were right for 2020 and 2022. Why wouldn't they be right this time? "Trump didn't get blown out in 2020, therefore polls are wrong" is not the own you think it is. Polls said Dems would win in 2020, they did (officially). Polls said very narrow Republican majority, Democrat Senate in 2022, guess what happened? Pollsters got a lot of egg on their face after fucking up Brexit and the 2016 election, and they got it all fixed by 2020.

 

[Mr. Manchester]

https://nypost.com/2024/10/28/media/washington-post-owner-jeff-bezos-wants-conservative-writers/

https://megalodon.jp/2024-1028-2329-10/https://nypost.com:443/2024/10/28/media/washington-post-owner-jeff-bezos-wants-conservative-writers/

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No amnesty for journoscum.

 

[XYZpdq Jr.]

on the subject of early turnout the wife had asked a good question-
Does anybody have some sort of updating map / chart / stat thingy of early voting turnout by at least party registration? Especially if it can juxtapose against past few elections