US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[GunCar Gary]

If we can’t use polls, what can we use.

astrology, the final frontier

 

[Bucephalus]

I genuinely think people are sleeping on the odds of New Hampshire flipping red.

Hear me out.

Spoiler: sperging

First, you're probably going to see similar metrics to the 2016 election than 2020, because there's no COVID this year.
So in the 2016 presidential election, the results went like this:

• [D] Hillary Clinton: 348,526 (47.62%)
• [R] Donald Trump: 345,790 (47.25%)
• [L] Gary Johnson: 30,694 (4.13%)
• [G] Jill Stein: 6,465 (0.87%)
• [D] Bernie Sanders (write-in): 4,493 (0.60%)
• irrelevant meme votes: 4,865 (0.65%)

You will notice that this is really, really fucking close. Like, "within four-tenths of a percentage point" close.

Trump only lost New Hampshire by 2,736 votes, and Hillary only won it because of Gary Johnson and a few irrelevant meme candidates acting as spoilers (1,064 votes for a Never Trump Independent candidate, 677 for Reform's, and ~2,913 write-in votes split between a few Republicans that had either dropped out by that point or weren't even running).

So how does the field look this year?

No small third-parties: No third-parties aside from the Libertarians and Greens have ballot access in New Hampshire. Reform and Independent had it in 2016, but they do not in 2024. RFK Jr. is backing Trump, and has withdrawn his name from the ballot.​

No Republican protest votes: Trump has united the GOP behind him, and his primary challengers have faded out of public consciousness this year. You will not see shit like John Kasich somehow managing to squirrel away 1,365 write-in votes. Anyone who does not like Trump will either begrudgingly vote for him, stay at home, or insert their White Boys for Harris tampons and bring Joy™ to the polls.​

Libertarians are losing ground in New Hampshire: They only got 13,236 votes in 2020, and this year, they nominated a literal faggot who is openly gay, pro-kiddie drag shows, pro-child sex change, and pro-men in women's sports, at a time when absolutely fucking none of that is in vogue with the right. Remember that for Trump to flip NH red in 2016, he only would've needed to siphon 2,736 votes back from Johnson.​

I think there's just enough instability with the Democratic camp and the usual spoilers that Trump might be able to curbstomp them both and flip New Hampshire red.

Am I cooking, chat?

 

[Not A Bunny]

This joke is kind of a litmus test. If your president can't handle insult humor, maybe they can't handle things like leaders of hostile nations wanting to rip the throats out of any American they can get their hands on.

Maybe I'm just tired of the idea that our president has any responsibility to be sensitive. Or shouldn't swear. Or whatever behavior fits their putrid purity tests. If war it shall be, may my president dish out what our enemies would do to us first.

 

[Flaming Dumpster]

Just put me into a coma for 8 days and let it be over with. God I hope BossmanJack gets out of jail tomorrow.

 

[LurkTrawl]

But the polls were right for 2020 and 2022.

I think you need a M.A.I.D. pal.

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

But the polls were right for 2020 and 2022. Why wouldn't they be right this time?

Polls aren't binary. If they historically give a 6 point Dem lean and the Dem only wins by one point or loses even, that's a 5 to 7 point margin of error. That's terrible. And it's always in the same direction.

 

[George Lucas]

He just took the lead in the national popular vote and a poll just came out showing him ahead in NH, as well as several more showing him ahead in swing states. I'm really not sure where you're getting this.

Link to the polls? I always use RCP because they aggregate pollsters that have a decent track record. There have been a lot of shit polls this year (Bloomberg) but that just means the results will be better for Trump than RCP average as usual:

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

The models and betting markets are going off of state polls and those are a lot less frequent then the national polls. The Trump wave we see that pushed the betting markets to 60/40 could already be out of date. The Rasmussen poll should be a big alarm to everyone in this thread.

I’m far more hesitant to declare a Trump victory than many in this thread (because I remember the 2020 thread very well), but national polling is not super relevant. Dems can be 4% higher in the national vote and still lose because of the electoral college. If Kamala leads Trump by 1% ultimately, that’s a terrible sign because the entire percentage point would consist of excess California and NY Dem voters.

 

[Too Many Catgirls]

Physically joining America to Russia would be such an epic troll. Start with building a bridge between the Russian and American Diomede Islands. The 2 largest White-majority countries fully allied. There's all kinds of potential!

Indeed. And it is an enriching project for the mind.

 

[Hey Johnny Bravo]

All I know is George Lucas is one of my favorite shitposters in this thread. He puts effort into it and doesn't just post complete nonsense. Even I fall for it.

 

[LurkTrawl]

If I am interpreting this correctly, a national poll is nearly meaningless when electoral votes are the goal. Trump could be -2 or -3 in this poll and still take the election on electoral votes just like 2016.

The problem with polling is you'd need significantly more than mere hundreds to test the temperature accurately of a populace now. Before the modern situation in which people's info isn't completely curated by centralized media, there's really no fucking guarantee of homogeneity in culture in any region that's outside of places you don't need polling for anyway.

Polls worked in a time where your neighbor didn't typically have wildly different political opinions than you because you had to regularly interact and actually engage with your locals aka communities actually fucking existed. They rely on a cultural landscape that hasn't existed for nearly longer than this website has been around.

 

[tehpope]

Give me all of the rainbows BUT

I hope people don't fall for this shit. Bezos doesn't give a fuck about conservative or right-wing voices. Him and his shekel-collecting friends know which way the wind is blowing; the fad of woke and lefty faggotry is ending, the time of conservative values and staunch nationalism is beginning.
They want in on the ground floor and I hope they're locked in the fucking basement.

Bezos only cares about his bottom line. And getting those sweet government contracts for Blue Origin.

 

[HandsomeDan]

Im not getting all hysterical over the comedian thing last night, in actuality most people dont even know it happened and the news stories coming out about it read like the same stories we see daily from the media so most (even TDS people) may not even notice it to be a new event. This is not the 2004 election or even the 2016 election, we dont have to tip toe around feelings anymore especially when its the feelings of mentally disturbed people.

I feel like we may have crossed the threshold that many now realize the bar is so low for what will get you labeled a racist or bigot there is no need to even worry about it anymore.

We have never seen (at least not in my lifetime) "republican" candidates speak directly and clearly about Christ, do unscripted conversations on broadcasts with millions of listeners, where they speak like a real likeable and cool human beings, dont worship the military and for the first time ever seem to win at the popular culture game. All of this is unprecedented.

In a fair an level world next Tuesday would be defeat for the democrats of biblical proportions...the problem is this is not a fair and level world. If the steal is to happen it will commence no matter if there was a mildly amusing/offensive comedian speaking last night. This is not a doompill this is just stating the fact of the matter. We will see what happens.

God stepped in back in July, something according to Scripture he really may not be keen on doing when it comes to earthly kings and man's political related troubles, but I tend to think the July intervention was not just a one time thing. May the true candidate of peace prevail.

 

[BigGuyOS 6 : Jovial Janny]

I don’t want to bring the energy down here fellas, but I think we should be deeply suspicious of these projections.

Why would polymarket be near 70:30 when all Harris needs to win is basically PA which is polling at <1%? If I was a betting man I’d have a considerable sum on Harris. Those odds are insane.

Also, a number of swing states that currently show a narrow edge for Trump have senate races with Democrat candidates in the lead.

View attachment 6571035

View attachment 6571036View attachment 6571037

Even in “deep red” Texas, the senate race is within margin of error. Ohio is considered solid red territory for Trump yet the democratic incumbent is leading by 2pts.

Am I really supposed to believe a statistically significant number of Trump voters enter the booth and vote for a democratic senator? That doesn’t make any sense.

I fear swing states will actually go for Harris. This is even before any election fuckery in Philadelphia.

I'd buy it. Those rust belt states of PA, MI, WI, and OH have high rates of legacy union Democrat voters, Senators, and Representatives. They're going to vote for people who convince them they're "pro-worker" candidates, which could lead to ticket splitting.

 

[Back me up!]

Vance just pulled out The "This is what they are fighting for" meme while shitposting against a Dem state senator. Win or loose the next wave of Republicans are not going back to just taking it.

 

[General Disarray]

if you were a major American politician at a huge rally, what would be your walk-on music?

Marty Friedman, Thunder March from his album "Dragon's Kiss." After I won the election ofc.

 

[Liquid Merlon]

I’ll just leave this here.

 

[George Lucas]

Rasmussen also has a margin of error. They are not wildly inaccurate though. Keep in mind a few things, this is a 48 for Harris and 47 for Trump. With 2 saying they will vote third party and 3 undecided. That three undecided is expected to break for Trump pretty significantly.

So it is within the margin of error -and- more nuanced.

Thank you for actually providing some insight into this poll instead of just going to the tired ‘muh rallies, muh fake polls, muh enthusiasm, muh silent majority’ non-arguments.

This type of point goes a long way to alleviate my fears.

Do you think the early vote turnout we are seeing reflects mail-in votes as well or are they uncorrelated?

 

[Train Operator]

can the election get here already so you faggots can stop your bipolar fucking doom posting every time a new poll is released? trump could be up 10 points in every state in the union and you people would find a way to declare it's over for trump.

 

[Red Saltire]

Vance just pulled out The "This is what they are fighting for" meme while shitposting against a Dem state senator. Win or loose the next wave of Republicans are not going back to just taking it.

View attachment 6571104

Vance has really risen to the occasion imo