US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[whoishomermynameis]

I’ll just leave this here.

 

[Soycast Guy]

This trailer is even worse with the phonk music:

I don't even play fortnite but that map looks like a roblox one from 2008
Fortnite is owned by Epic Games which in part is owned by Tencent. Interesting.
The fact they have the funds to create a map and pay epic games and a bunch of "game trailer" youtube channels shows you how they have so much fucking money to burn.

I was reading the comments under this trailer and it looks extremely botted. Next to no negativity while the comments on the IGN trailer are all shitting on her.

 

[Clotso Coof]

She should’ve been a skin in concord

Did you see the black women in that game? Kamala would have looked like a 10/10 bikini model compared to them.

 

[StarkRavingMad]

View attachment 6571218

I just fail to see how these are good optics.

We're a week away from Election Day, and the man running for Vice President of the United States is sitting on his ass playing video games.

It's ... Not a good look. He just looks lazy AF ... And it doesn't make kids think he's cool either. Most kids don't want their parents or grandparents involved in their hobbies like this. Parents and grandparents getting involved with Facebook is what killed the platform, for example. Millennials and boomers (a.k.a. the literal worst living generations of people) are the only ones who still give a shit about Facebook. lol.

 

[Kari Kamiya]

If you weren’t already calling us that, you didn’t know us. Nimbyism is a religion.

Even the democrats in NH have given up attempting to institute a state income tax. Some lady tried to open a diaper spa for adbl freaks and got crushed by the zoning board, so now she does diaper joi vids or some shit, and we passed a state law banning trannies from women’s sports.

As a state, we have the third lowest crime in the country, only behind like Wyoming and some other empty western shit. But also every election year, you see this shit of people trying to live in rv’s and getting chased out from block to block.

I’m sure we’re getting fucked. Harris signs are practically non existent, we don’t go for overt faggotry, we were one of the first places to drop any pretense of vaccine mandates or mask requirements, etc etc etc

It's so odd, like NH can be red in a lot of areas especially in your state laws, and in early voting, it's pretty red, but y'all haven't been red in a presidential election since 2000. Like what's up with that?

 

[SpergioLeonne]

It's so odd, like NH can be red in a lot of areas especially in your state laws, and in early voting, it's pretty red, but y'all haven't been red in a presidential election since 2000. Like what's up with that?

Like I said above, out of state college kids claim residency while living in dorms or whatever, and there are RV people.

Our biggest city, Manchester, even has a Republican mayor.

 

[PyrrhicRustle]

NH is fucked because we allow college kids to vote, like just being here attending Dartmouth or UNH is enough residency.

So there’s this weird shit where the state legislature is red, Sununu outperformed Trump by 30 points.. we just always end up sending blue senators and voting that way in presidential elections.

If you lived here, you’d think we were Texas

I also see a few lawns with the full Republican ticket for the state positions in yard signs, but none for Trump or either House candidate and have been wondering if they contribute to the issue.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

https://katu.com/news/local/vancouver-ballot-box-seen-smoking-same-morning-as-portland-ballot-box-arson

https://archive.is/wip/Ca7NG

Ballots set on fire at two box drop-off sites in Vancouver, WA

It's a suburb where people move to get away from leftists in Portland.

 

[The Ugly One]

Puerto Rico isn’t a country.

Oh, I'm sorry, shithole US territory. The legal definition of that garbage pile in the sea totally changes everything.

 

[Kari Kamiya]

Like I said above, out of state college kids claim residency while living in dorms or whatever, and there are RV people.

Our biggest city, Manchester, even has a Republican mayor.

So essentially you'll have to get everyone to vote to even dominate the college kids because there's no way half of the voting block is taken up by them. Think it's similar there in Rhode Island, as well? I've noticed it can be red in the early stages.

I dunno, NH is just an oddball state, I guess.

 

[pwnest injun]

https://katu.com/news/local/vancouver-ballot-box-seen-smoking-same-morning-as-portland-ballot-box-arson

https://archive.is/wip/Ca7NG

Ballots set on fire at two box drop-off sites in Vancouver, WA

It's a suburb where people move to get away from leftists in Portland.

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Yeah. Based on the locations they chose, it seems likely a leftist is trying to burn ballots from conservative districts. That's the state of their morale. They think they're going to lose in Oregon and Washington.

 

[EverybodyWalktheDinosaur]

This might be an unpopular opinion here but Tony Hinchcliffe's comedy set at the MSG rally was an optics nightmare and probably shouldn't have happened. It also really wasn't the place for comedy.

Seething has been funny though

Washed up hasbeens are VERY upset.
Link / Archive

 

[WhiskeyJack]

But the polls were right for 2020

Pollsters got a lot of egg on their face after fucking up Brexit and the 2016 election, and they got it all fixed by 2020.

I assume you're trolling, but whatever. It's handy to actually delve into this stuff to remind myself.

So, the RCP aggregate in 2016 had Hillary getting 1.2% more than the actual result. In 2020, the aggregate gave Biden 2.7% more than the actual result. The pollsters were actually worse in 2020 (nationally) than in 2016.

National pollsters are almost universally biased in favor of Democrats, with an average error of around 3%. This is typically extreme end of Margin of Error, so they're clearly actively trying to be just wrong enough to mislead, but close enough they can claim "within MOE". A good rule of thumb then, for most polls, is to add the MOE to the Republican candidate, and that's probably close to the final result. You'll note also that the few pollsters biased towards the Republican are also typically more accurate with less error on the final result. That also suggests the other pollsters are intentionally suppressing the Republican average, and it's not just random error.

Spoiler: National Polls

A similar pattern shows up with state polls (these scorecards are for Governor, POTUS, and Senate, not House races). They are almost universally biased in favor of Democrats, typically by 3% or more, with the few biased in favor of Republicans generally being more accurate overall.

Spoiler: State Polls

The only real exception to this rule was the 2022 Mid-terms, where a majority of pollsters had a bias in favor of Republicans. This is likely because they were unsure how to weight things in a post-Trump election. However, the overall error of all polls was much lower than the previous elections, so the bias didn't push the Republicans much higher in polling than the final result turned out, not as much as the bias for Democrats usually helps them anyway.

Spoiler: 2022 Midterms

The end result of all this is that, if you are going to trust polls at all, it's generally safe to error in favor of the Republican candidate as that is typically the more accurate result come election day. And right now, Trump is slightly ahead in the aggregate polling.

Figuring out state polls is a bit harder, but again, typically the Republican POTUS candidate does better than the polls claim.

If we look at Emerson, they have Trump up by 1% in Pennsylvania as of right now, and they underestimated him in 2020 by 2.8% and 5.2% in 2016. Going by that, it'd be safe to say he's probably about 3 or 4% ahead in PA right now. Trafalgar was pretty much dead on for PA in both 2020 and 2016, the most accurate pollster for that state overall, and they have Trump at... 3%. So that's probably a fair assessment.

Pennsylvania seems likely to be the keystone for this election, and would likely be enough to push Trump to 270. If he gets PA, however, he's likely getting either MI and WI, or both.

 

[Fellen]

Trump should probably spend the last week campaigning in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania than anywhere else. He seems to have Georgia and Arizona and might have North Carolina and Nevada too. But the first three are the big ones, especially Pennsylvania. Maybe he should do a speech in front of Independence Hall. Read the Declaration of Independence and then a speech of bringing the country back. It would be better than the speech Biden did there a couple years ago with the hellish-red background, the two marines, and pumping his fist in anger.

He's in Georgia today, then PA, NC, WI, NV, WI again, and then VA. That takes him up to November 2nd. I'd say it's a balanced schedule. He's already been to MI recently, but I'd expect one last trip there along with PA.

 

[Lian Xing]

Pennsylvania seems likely to be the keystone

I see what you did there.

 

[Hey Johnny Bravo]

I talked to my 33 native-american two-spirit friends and they said they're writing in Jeb! because yellow is their favorite color

I feel like a fool for never buying one of his gauca bowles.

 

[Meat Target]

Yeah. Based on the locations they chose, it seems likely a leftist is trying to burn ballots from conservative districts. That's the state of their morale. They think they're going to lose in Oregon and Washington.

Alas, the headlines will soon call it "MAGA violence".

 

[John Badman]

https://katu.com/news/local/vancouver-ballot-box-seen-smoking-same-morning-as-portland-ballot-box-arson

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/1vgoI

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Why would MAGA cultists do this?

 

[DrearyDoomguy]

The only real exception to this rule was the 2022 Mid-terms, where a majority of pollsters had a bias in favor of Republicans. This is likely because they were unsure how to weight things in a post-Trump election. However, the overall error of all polls was much lower than the previous elections, so the bias didn't push the Republicans much higher in polling than the final result turned out, not as much as the bias for Democrats usually helps them anyway.

A large part of the '22 underperformance was a lack of enthusiasm on the GOP side coupled with McConnell severely mishandling the distribution of campaign funds. There is no lack of enthusiasm in the Trump '24 camp.

 

[mlanguishi]

The videos of that box fire are clearly from last night or before and are just now coming out?

I think there's going to be a backlash against the backlash this time. We've seen it with SBI and Mercante, at least somewhat. I don't think this is a good move for them to try and pull now.

ETA that 'black guy destroying ballots' thing in PA was also a dud and probably false flag. I say this as someone who usually doesn't agree with false flag logic.