US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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Mark Goldbridge said:
Why is he tanking in the past few hours?

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Just to point out something that I don't see anyone on Twitter or anywhere really observing about Polymarket and prediction markets: the name "prediction market" makes it sound like its stated goal is to generate odds on some specific outcome that somewhat align with reality and in a sense this is somewhat correct.

But it assumes that the people using it are actually attempting to predict and not to bet (gamble). So people will be placing both highly rational as well as irrational bets either because of their own deeply held personal beliefs or based upon what part of the news cycle they see in their small window that they read the news/internet... or they think they are smart and are outplaying the market or they are just betting for shits and giggles.

Over enough time and with enough volume it is possible that they would somewhat represent reality, however this is the first US presidential election in which they have existed at this kind of scale and the results aren't going to make sense.

If anything, given the amount of money at stake ($2.7bn USD) I expect 2nd order consequences to be excited and exacerbated by whatever the actual election outcome is (which means the election outcome itself may not be the real story, but what follows may be). Because whichever way it swings, people now have a heavy financial incentive to not only spam the internet with accusations of fraud but also potentially interfere in other ways. On top of this, the actual election outcome is likely to be seeded in controversy and the "actual" outcome is probably going to be very muddy.

There are already some previous examples of elections on Polymarket that have taken place in which the results were mired in controversy and the outcome was not clear and there are mechanisms at play that can "dictate" what the result is.

People looking at this chart and trying to use it as any sort of real indicator (barring some actual really significant piece of news) should really have a clear understanding of how Polymarket and these other prediction markets work before they look at these charts as gospel or look at little dips in % and also factor in how clearly contentious this particular election outcome is going to be.

TLDR: The market for "Presidential Election Winner 2024" is probably not going to go very smoothly and the actual outcome/result may take weeks for an actual decision to be made, and it may not be what people expect (especially given how much money is at play here). Once you add in the inevitable retarded lawsuits and accusations from both sides about voter fraud it will take a significant amount of time to settle. So if you're actually using this chart as any form of evidence of what the outcome will be, you have to assume it will actually be accepted (which I predict it won't be, at least not in a timely fashion).
 
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Gehenna said:
Eh, Poso is almost a stereotype of everything wrong with poles. Though I think it has less to do with being Polish and more to do with being as ingratiated with the swamp as the very people he tries to deride.
Alternatively: you could claim the Jew part overrides the Polish part for work ethic.
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It could be worse. You could both be (God forgive me for spelling this word out) British.
 
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Cemetery Support said:
Even people here have doubts and jitters. A Trump presidency still isn't a 100% confirmed thing, no matter how much we might hope and pray. My guess is that people are betting on Harris in case she does win so that they win big.
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the gap in the betting will go back down to 50/50 around election night, and may flip back and forth a bunch - this is only my hunch because I’m expecting an absolute nail biter. That happened in 2020 as well. The markets got so wacky I remember well after it was evident Biden was running away with it, he was still a dog in the betting.
 
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Gondolindrim said:
Man you know a nation is in a healthy state when it's election season and everyone is convinced that the other party winning will mean the end of America. 2020 and 2024 has been nothing but genuine fear for the future. This isn't me being a centrist either, it's just another sign that this shit really is coming to a head. I don't think a lot of people believe there will be a 2028 election.
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Those people need to get offline for awhile.
 
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Burnt Effigy said:
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At this point, I'm half convinced EVERYONE hates Kamala.

Bush fucks it up, Obama clearly doesn't have the enthusiasm, Biden just doesn't give a fuck anymore, there's even rumors of Shapiro being the one that fast-forwarded the approval of extending the early vote.

Her campaign is a disaster, she has no media presence, no talking points, her scriptwriters CLEARLY fuck it up all the time (because if they were competent, they'd spice up her speeches, not keep the shitty "middle class family" bullshit).
The only way this campaign could be worse is if she was genuinely, pro-actively evil.

I can understand people voting against Trump, I have zero idea why anyone would want to vote for Kamala, though.
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I'm almost completely convinced Kamala is hated by all, or at least everyone with a functional brain. As for her campaign I'd agree its definitely got a shot at dethroning Hillary Clinton's 2016 campaign as the Dems worst attempt to win the white house.
 
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Too Many Catgirls said:
You've totally failed. You were still a faggot the entire time, despite the good instructions.
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Just because I suck cocks doesn't mean anyone else in the thread has to.

Fatpacks said:
It has never been more over. Trump isn't winning PA. I told you all this would happen.
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Are you one of my employees?

Alter Ego said:
Went back to remind myself of what exactly Hillary said. This was from September 9th, 2016, so two months before the election.
She was much more explicit and descriptive compared to Biden whose remark was much more brief and at least with a smidge of plausible deniability in only meaning specific Trump supporters such as Kill Tony.
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It really highlights the difference between Hillary and Kamala.

Hillary is Reptiloid, not a human. She considers regular humans to be beneath her, fit only for her to subjugate and rule. But while she might be evil, she's not completely stupid. She knows there's a lot more humans than her, and that her ascendancy to power depends on being able to at least pretend to care about them. She further understood that people were supporting Trump because he was promising a better future.

"But that other basket of people are people who feel the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody cares about their lives and their futures, and they're just desperate for change. It doesn't even really matter where it comes from. They don't buy everything he says, but he seems to hold out some hope that their lives will be different, that they won't wake up and see their job disappear, lose their kid to heroin, feel like they're in a dead end. Those are people we have to understand and empathize with as well."

Kamala can't even manage that. Just the same meaningless phrases over and over again, "I was raised in a middle class family," and so on, like some kind of robot.
 
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Red Saltire said:
I’m still astonished at the betting markets considering how close all the polling is and the razor thin margins in all the early voting.

Not only is this winnable for Harris, but it will be well within stealable. What do these markets see that I don’t see? Polling is never a great indicator in margins this thin so what is driving the prices here?
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Pretty sure the betting markets are largely controlled by a few pro-Trump people and are not at all indicative of who is likely to win. All the action that was taken against the steal this year were too little, too late.
 
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Burnt Effigy said:
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At this point, I'm half convinced EVERYONE hates Kamala.

Bush fucks it up, Obama clearly doesn't have the enthusiasm, Biden just doesn't give a fuck anymore, there's even rumors of Shapiro being the one that fast-forwarded the approval of extending the early vote.

Her campaign is a disaster, she has no media presence, no talking points, her scriptwriters CLEARLY fuck it up all the time (because if they were competent, they'd spice up her speeches, not keep the shitty "middle class family" bullshit).
The only way this campaign could be worse is if she was genuinely, pro-actively evil.

I can understand people voting against Trump, I have zero idea why anyone would want to vote for Kamala, though.
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That doesn't seem like what he said at all.
 
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