US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

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Rassie is forecasting that Trump ends up losing Virgina but only by a small margin.

It seems a lot of VA Dems have been voting early and Rassie doesn't think there are enough GoP voters left in the state to overcome that advantage.

Still not the worst news, VA always was a long shot for Trump and Rassie says there is still a small chance but the Trump voters would have to turn out in a massive way to flip the state.

The Senate election is pretty much over, the Dem candidate will easily carry the race by double digits. Really who the fuck nominates a dude name Hung Cao for the GoP Senate slot? No wonder people ain't interested in voting for him with a name like that, really rings in as a true American you can trust and totes not a Chink plant. Note I'm not saying the dude is a Chink spy, he's probably a pretty decent fellow if Trump supports him but come on now, at least Americanize your name if your running for the Senate dude.

this was great. I know very little about the craft of polling, so it was interesting hear him talk about his methods and thoughts on other polls. also I liked that he called all the pro-Harris polls pure cope.
 
To celebrate the garbage saga, id laugh my ass off if someone AI'd this with Trump and Biden.

 
Election and law enforcement officials brace for Nov. 5 as early voter L.A. turnout is slow so far
Los Angeles Times (archive.ph)
By Rachel Uranga
2024-10-29 21:04:27GMT
la01.jpg
Ballots are received, sorted and verified in 2022 at an L.A. County processing facility in City of Industry. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times)

Fewer Los Angeles County voters are turning in early ballots compared to the last presidential race, but officials said Tuesday that given the heated national election they are stepping up security measures to prevent voter tampering or intimidation.

There have been “no credible threats here in Los Angeles County to polling locations or polling workers” said Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna.

Law enforcement is monitoring the elections process, he said, and has been in communications with federal officials.

Ballot boxes were burned in Portland, Ore., and Vancouver, Wash., on Monday. And in other parts of the country, law enforcement is staging near polling stations and officials are installing panic buttons, among other measures to protect poll workers and ballots.

“There’s a narrative around the country about the security of the elections process, and we want to be sure that voters have the confidence that we have a process that’s going to protect both them, our staff and also their ballots in this process,” said Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk Dean Logan.

There are 427 ballot boxes where residents can return mail-in ballots.

“The boxes we use here in L.A. County are designed to suppress fire,” Logan said. The ballots are nearly airtight and testing by fire officials “showed that anything flammable should extinguish very quickly,” he said. “Really, the bigger concern on our end would be the damage to ballots in responding to an incident,” such as water damage.

Sheriff’s officials have been regularly meeting with local, state and federal agencies and briefing the registrar on local and national developments. Local police agencies have been training in case of civil disturbances and the sheriff is planning to make specialized units ready during the elections.

“I want people to feel secure that they can go to any voting location and not be intimidated or fearful that anything may happen,” Luna said. “If there’s something there, call us immediately. We’re going to have extra people out there, and we will respond.”

There are no plans, at this time, to place officers at polls.

More than 3 million votes are expected to be cast in Los Angeles County, then verified and counted at a sprawling ballot processing center in City of Industry at the site of a former Fry’s Electronic store. Election officials gave media a tour of the facility on Tuesday, emphasizing the protocols and urging those who can to vote early.

“If you’re able to and you’re ready to cast your vote, we really encourage voters to vote early,” Logan said. Under state law, the final count cannot be certified until Dec. 3, but he said that most “definitive results” should be available two weeks after the final vote.

The tally will begin on election day in a glass-encased room when polls close. But preparations are already underway. There are about 800 workers at the center, who have been logging mail-in ballots and verifying signatures in anticipation of the big day. Rows of workers inspect the envelopes for any damage or oddities before they wind their way through a multi-step process that includes a ballot count, a signature check and removing the ballot from the envelope. The paper mail-in ballots then go through a tally machine that scans them. The votes are not counted until 8 p.m. on Nov. 5.

“Once that ballot is in the registrar’s hands of our election staff, it’s transparent,” said Mimi Kennedy, who sat on the advisory committee of Voting Solutions for All People, a group developed by the Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk in 2009 to make the transition to new machines. She said that she is confident in the county’s ability to get the election right.

There will be about 9,000 people working at polls in the community on Nov. 5. Sheriff’s officials will haul in ballot boxes from the polls via helicopter and patrol cars to a heavily surveilled warehouse-like processing center, with K-9 units sniffing for explosives or other threats.

“Our parking lot actually becomes a helipad, and it’s quite a scene here on election night,” Logan said.

As of Tuesday, about 900,000 ballots had been cast. Assistant Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk Monica Flores estimates the rate is about 30 to 40 percent of that in the previous presidential election when the pandemic brought record numbers of voters out early.

“It could be low turnout in general. It could be that more people will be voting in person, and or it could be that folks are just waiting to vote later on in the election period, waiting to vote on election day,” she said.

There are 122 early-voting center locations that have been opened since Saturday. And as of Monday night, 47,000 residents had voted in person.

On Saturday, an additional 526 locations will be open, for a total of 644 vote centers open countywide through the end of the election period. Any voter in L.A. county can go to any one of those locations.
Extremists inspired by conspiracy theories pose major threat to 2024 elections, U.S. intelligence warns
NBC News (archive.ph)
By Brandy Zadrozny
2024-10-28 13:00:41GMT
U.S. intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists with grievances rooted in election-related conspiracy theories, including beliefs in widespread voter fraud and animosity toward perceived political opponents, as the most likely threat of violence in the coming election.

In a Joint Intelligence Bulletin that was not distributed publicly but was reviewed by NBC News, agents from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security warn state and local law enforcement agencies that domestic violent extremists seeking to terrorize and disrupt the vote are a threat to the election and throughout Inauguration Day.

The report identified the potential targets as candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election cases. The potential threats include physical attacks and violence at polling places, ballot drop boxes, voter registration locations and rallies and campaign events.

The October internal report was among several intelligence documents obtained through public records requests by Property of the People, a nonprofit group focused on government transparency. Federal agents regularly provide that type of threat assessment to state and local law enforcement agencies through formal bulletins. Before Jan. 6, 2021, they were more reluctant to distribute them because of concern that investigations of Americans might appear to violate free speech protections.

“The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners about the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 election,” DHS spokesperson Mayra Rodriguez said in a statement. “Violence has no place in our politics, and DHS continues to work with our partners to evaluate and mitigate emerging threats that may arise from domestic or foreign actors.”

Still, the reports “are not typical election threat intelligence,” said Ryan Shapiro, executive director of Property of the People. “The documents are unmistakably a product of a radically heightened threat environment.”

Former President Donald Trump has claimed elections have been rigged against him since 2016, when he won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. In 2020, he and his allies ramped up false claims of cheating — lies the courts quickly struck down — but the claims became fuel for a violent attack at the Capitol, which aimed to overturn the election.

Perceptions of election fraud are a “prominent narrative” for extremists who have targeted government and election officials, with at least three domestic extremist attacks and two disrupted plots being linked to such false claims since Jan. 6., according to the report. Intelligence agents also listed immigration, LGBTQ issues, abortion and the failed assassination attempts against Trump as motivations for recent calls for violence from extremists.

Threats to election workers — including letters containing white powder, online harassment and threats and swatting, in which fake calls to emergency services trigger potentially dangerous law enforcement responses to people’s homes — have recently increased, according to the FBI. Such threats tend to originate from areas where election results have been contested, according to the report.

Election officials have responded to the warnings by ramping up security measures. In Maricopa County, Arizona, an epicenter of election conspiracy theories and challenges in 2020, officials are reportedly implementing heightened security measures for Election Day, including metal detectors, armed guards, drones and police snipers.

The reports follow others released in recent weeks that warn of an increase in online chatter about an impending civil war, as well as several incidents of violence or thwarted attacks before the election. Agents wrote that some extremists were “reacting to the 2024 election season and prominent policy issues by engaging in illegal preparatory or violent activity that they link to the narrative of an impending civil war.”

A separate October bulletin from Colorado’s state threat assessment center highlighted threats posed by people who dispute the legitimacy of the 2020 election results. The report underscored the problem of “insider threats,” in which people with authorized access to the election process might attempt to derail it. It also noted a “continued dialogue amongst individuals on extremist discussion groups and forums that the results of the 2020 elections were inaccurate.”

The report noted recent incidents of targeted violence, including increased activity from white nationalists and Proud Boy organizing against Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. It also noted disturbing calls for violence on anonymous online message boards targeting election workers and undocumented immigrants as part of “election steal defense prep.”
 
IIRC 10 PM EST, so 90 minutes from now.
*sigh* :heart-empty:
I've been meaning to listen to more of Trump's podcast appearances in particular the recent one with Joe Rogan, is it worth a listen?
I’ve only listened to the first hour but it’s entertaining. He goes off on a lot of tangents, but he tells a good story and I actually found myself a little annoyed when Joe would interrupt to ask a question. I think Trump’s at his best in casual settings like this.
 
In U.S. swing states, officials brace for conspiracy theories and violence
Reuters (archive.ph)
By Nathan Layne, Joseph Tanfani, and Ned Parker
2024-10-31 02:15:05GMT
DETROIT, Oct 30 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election just days away, officials in the most competitive battleground states are bracing for misinformation, conspiracy theories, threats and possible violence.

In Philadelphia, Detroit and Atlanta, three of former President Donald Trump’s favorite targets for false claims of voter fraud, officials have fortified their operations against a repeat of the chaos of 2020. Philadelphia’s ballot-counting warehouse is now surrounded by fencing topped with barbed wire. In Detroit and Atlanta, some election offices are protected by bullet-proof glass.

In Wisconsin, election workers have been trained on de-escalation techniques and polling stations rearranged so workers have escape routes if they are menaced by protestors.

In Arizona, an epicenter in 2020 for false claims by Republicans about rigged voting, the secretary of state is working with local officials on how to respond to misinformation, including deep-fake images of purported fraud.

As opinion polls show Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris neck and neck heading into Tuesday’s vote, officials say there’s one thing they can’t predict or control: What Trump and his allies might say on election night as the votes are still being counted.

“If it's razor thin, then they're going to throw everything they got, right?” said Philadelphia City Commissioner Lisa Deeley, a Democrat, in an interview. “There’s nothing we can do to stop the former president from continuing his campaign of misinformation and disinformation. But what we can do is continue to push back on that with facts.”

Deeley and 30 other election officials from both parties told Reuters they are preparing for a replay of 2020, when Trump and his lawyers pushed false charges about late-night ballot dumps and rigged machines in an effort to overturn his loss. In the wake of those claims, clerks around the country have been subjected to threats and harassment from Trump supporters convinced the election was stolen.

The Trump campaign did not respond directly to questions about plans to challenge the results. In a statement, Danielle Alvarez, a senior advisor for the campaign and the Republican National Committee, said the party had recruited 230,000 poll watchers, poll workers and legal experts to “bring transparency and accountability” to the election.

"While Democrats will stop at nothing to weaken our elections, we are fighting for a fair and secure process where every legal vote is counted properly," she said.

Throughout his campaign, Trump has repeated the falsehood that he won in 2020 while signaling he would contest a possible loss to Harris.

On Friday, in a post on Trump’s Truth Social platform, he wrote that there was "rampant Cheating and Skulduggery" in 2020 and threatened election officials and others “involved in unscrupulous behavior” this cycle with prosecution.

Election officials say one of their biggest fears is a razor-close result where the outcome will hinge on court fights over small numbers of disputed ballots. The Republican National Committee has targeted election officials with dozens of lawsuits challenging various aspects of the voting process, a move seen by Democrats as a prelude to contesting a potential loss. Republican poll watchers, who monitor the casting and counting of ballots, have been trained to be aggressive in scrutinizing the process, and their ranks are filled with activists who still deny the 2020 results, according to training calls reviewed by Reuters.

URBAN BATTLEGROUNDS
The tensions are especially acute in Philadelphia, Atlanta and Detroit, major Democratic vote centers in crucial swing states. Trump accused them of allowing electoral fraud in 2020 and has done so again since the start of this campaign.

At an Iowa rally in December , he urged followers to go to the three cities and "guard the vote," a phrase that alarmed Democrats who warned it could prompt his supporters to intimidate voters or disrupt the counting.

Daniel Baxter, Detroit's chief operating officer for absentee voting and special projects, said the city is preparing for potential unrest in planning with local police and federal officials. Its election headquarters has been strengthened with armed guards and bullet-proof glass. The counting of mail-in ballots has been moved to a more secure location in the convention hall downtown. In 2020, Trump supporters sought to disrupt the process by pounding on windows and yelling "stop the count."

"We plan for a riot," Baxter said in an interview. “We just want to make sure that we have planned for the worst as we hope for the best.” He said he is unaffiliated with any party.

In a virtual meeting for prospective poll workers, an official with the Republican National Committee warned the volunteers that Detroit was not to be trusted. "Because that city, if I could get away with ... you know, burning it to the ground, I would try," said Morgan Ray, the RNC's director of election integrity for Michigan, according to a previously unreported recording of the Sept. 10 meeting obtained by Reuters. Ray and the RNC didn’t respond to requests for comment on her remarks.

Trump also singled out Detroit, America’s largest Black-majority city, saying on Oct. 10 that the rest of the country would become “like Detroit” if Harris wins. Detroit City Clerk Janice Winfrey, a Democrat, said she believes racism was at the root of Trump’s attacks on cities like hers. "He's the type of person that thinks that he can easily intimidate Detroiters because we're a predominantly Black city,” she said in an interview. “But we're not intimidated by him at all."

The Trump campaign did not respond to a question about Winfrey’s remarks.

Philadelphia has overhauled vote-counting since delays in 2020 created an opening for Trump and his allies to spread conspiracy theories and for his supporters to target election officials with threats. In 2020, election clerks in Philadelphia and elsewhere struggled with an avalanche of mail-in ballots, thanks to more liberal vote-by-mail rules adopted by many states in response to the pandemic.

On election night in 2020, Trump declared himself the winner after early returns showed him in the lead, even though thousands of ballots remained to be processed in Philadelphia. With the election in the balance, it took the city five days to count enough ballots to make clear that Biden had indeed won Pennsylvania, clinching his bid for the White House.

Since then, the city has moved its election operations to a warehouse, secured by fencing topped with barbed wire, 15 miles from the downtown convention center where ballots were counted four years ago as protesters gathered outside. In Pennsylvania, unlike other states, state law bars election officials from beginning work on the mail ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day.

Michigan, by contrast, in 2022 passed a law allowing for pre-processing of mail-in ballots. Election workers in Detroit now have eight days to verify and tabulate absentee ballots prior to Election Day. City clerk Winfrey said she hopes to report results in time for the 11 p.m. TV news on Nov. 5.

Philadelphia officials say they also expect to deliver numbers much more quickly this year, with nearly all ballots counted by Wednesday or Thursday. The city expects to receive more than 225,000 mail ballots, far fewer than the 375,000 that flooded in four years ago. The city has purchased new, faster machines to slice open envelopes and scan ballots, along with new technology that officials say speeds up the process of checking mail ballots.

Philadelphia’s commissioners said they hope announcing the results faster will tamp down the spread of disinformation in the time between the polls closing and news organizations declaring a winner.

“That is the window that allows for the greatest misinformation and disinformation to spread and for harassment and threats to come to election workers,” said Seth Bluestein, a Republican on the city’s three-person election commission. “So that's why it's so important for us to shrink that window and count the ballots as quickly as possible.”

In Atlanta’s majority-Black Fulton County, Georgia’s most populous area, officials are preparing for pro-Trump misinformation. In 2020, Trump attorney Rudolph Giuliani falsely accused two Georgia election workers of counting illegal votes, triggering death threats against them and fueling Trump’s false claim that he won the state. The Georgia state election board, now dominated by three pro-Trump Republicans, has called for new investigations of Fulton County.

Opinion polls in the state show Harris and Trump roughly even. On Election Night, if Harris appears to be winning the state, Georgia State Election Board Member Sara Tindall Ghazal, a Democrat, said she expects “to see disinformation” about election machines being hacked and tampering with the vote.

Fulton’s election board chair, Sherri Allen, a registered Democrat serving on the non-partisan body, said the county has taken steps to reassure skeptics. It opened last year a new vote-counting operation in a massive suburban warehouse, 21 miles from downtown Atlanta. The vote count will be televised on giant screens, promoting transparency. “You can see it on the screen as it’s happening,” Allen said. “We didn’t have that before.”

DIFFERENT WORLD NOW
Beyond these urban battlegrounds, election officials in Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina are making preparations.

In North Carolina, some county election offices have installed panic buttons, bulletproof glass, security cameras and heavier doors, said State Board of Elections spokesperson Patrick Gannon. Election officials have been trained to defuse tensions with angry activists, he said. Police have been given pocket guides on election law in anticipation of increased challenges.

Nevada, where the 2020 election was not called until four days after the last ballots were cast, has changed laws and procedures to speed up counting and bolster confidence in the results. For the first time, mail-in ballots are being counted starting two weeks before Election Day. A new centralized statewide voter registration database allows citizens to track their ballots and make sure they accurately reflect their choices, which officials hope will quash concerns about mass fraud.

In Arizona, the secretary of state’s office said it has trained election officials to respond to AI-generated misinformation about the election, including deep-fake video and images.

And in Wisconsin, the state legislature passed an election protection bill this year that created a new crime of battery of an election official. Some municipalities pushed through ordinances aimed at people who might try to disrupt voting. Madison, for instance, now has an ordinance providing for $1,000 fines for people found threatening or otherwise hampering the work of poll workers.

Some changes are as subtle as moving chairs to bolster the safety of poll workers.

In the small northern Wisconsin town of Caswell, clerk Tamaney “Sam” Augustin has shifted poll workers across the room, so they faced, rather than sat next to, the door — with two exits directly behind them.

“We’ve never had anything happen,” she said, “but we live in a different world now.”

(This story has been refiled to fix transposed words in paragraph 1)

Joseph Tanfani reported from Philadelphia and Ned Parker reported from Atlanta. Additional reporting by Tim Aeppel, Brad Brooks, Peter Eisler, Helen Coster and Aram Roston. Editing by Jason Szep
 
Extremists inspired by conspiracy theories pose major threat to 2024 elections, U.S. intelligence warns
NBC News (archive.ph)
By Brandy Zadrozny
2024-10-28 13:00:41GMT
In U.S. swing states, officials brace for conspiracy theories and violence
Reuters (archive.ph)
By Nathan Layne, Joseph Tanfani, and Ned Parker
2024-10-31 02:15:05GMT
Sure is funny how much effort is being spent on making sure you believe the election is fair and legitimate, rather than making sure the election is fair and legitimate.
 
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