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US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians
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- Apr 21, 2021
He can certainly win Pennsylvania and lose Wisconsin and Nevada. I currently have him winning Nevada, though.
Wisconsin, imo, is just as unwinnable as Michigan is this year. I could be wrong. The margins are very narrow in both, but I have a gut feeling Trump picks up Pennsylvania and loses Wisconsin and Michigan. If he loses Pennsylvania, the election is over. If Trump takes Pennsylvania, his odds of taking Michigan and Wisconsin are higher.
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- Joined
- Jun 14, 2024
Christ this fed is still alive? And still giving the most retarded takes imaginable? I’m surprised.
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- Nov 22, 2021
Dr J
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 13, 2020
He has paths without Pennsylvania, and there's no way he wins PA but loses WI and MI
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- Dec 4, 2013
Allan Lichtman, the "Keys" guy, has released his final prediction. It's so over for Drumpf.
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- Jul 14, 2024
The video fucking sucks. You can't read shit. I hope whoever is responsible for it hits their pinky toe really hard on furniture.
edit: ninja'd
Dr J
kiwifarms.net
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- Nov 13, 2020
You know they probably have compromat on him, right? Look at what happened to Kevin Spacey. Was a darling of Hollywood and the English stage, got exposed and is now fighting bankruptcy
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2023
I double checked my math and the difference for those states were only 0.2-2.8%, with more than one being under 1%
I'm confident we will see at least a 3% swing in all states towards Trump, as I don't believe even the most biased of analysts can deny that sentiment bump without dropping into pure fiction that public sentiment is unchanged from 2020. I believe we may see a 10-15% swing in a few states.
- Joined
- Jan 25, 2022
My point exactly. Any semblance of a RDJ that was not a whore for the machine is long dead and buried. He has his money but he choses to stay loyal for more.
Archive that shit nigga.
- Joined
- Jun 14, 2024
This is insane even by the heightened standards that apply to him. Georgia and North Carolina flipping? But not Nevada?
GoGoNoJo
kiwifarms.net
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- Dec 16, 2019
If he wins NC and GA (like in 0713's map) and PA, then it won't matter. Those 3 states by themselves bump him up to 270.
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2022
Kamala Harris struggles to secure men's support in labor unions
Reuters (archive.ph)
By Jarrett Renshaw and Nandita Bose
2024-10-31 17:24:22GMT
Reuters (archive.ph)
By Jarrett Renshaw and Nandita Bose
2024-10-31 17:24:22GMT
WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - With the U.S. election days away, Vice President Kamala Harris is struggling to secure the support of male volunteers in some labor unions whose phone calls and house visits are needed to get Democratic supporters out to vote, senior labor officials said.
Most unions have long supported Democratic candidates, and both Harris and President Joe Biden have backed unions in contract negotiations and championed workers' rights.
But Republican candidate Donald Trump, who was president from 2017-2021, has made inroads with union workers in recent years and any drop in support for Harris could be a decisive factor in the neck-and-neck race.
If elected, Harris would make U.S. history as the first female and second Black president, and sexism and racism have been seen as a hurdle to her winning.
Liz Shuler, president of the 12.5 million-member AFL-CIO, said enthusiasm for Harris is strong overall but sexism is likely undermining support for her in some unions.
"Let's be honest, there are people who look at a female candidate and at face value dismiss her because, you know, she's perceived as not being presidential," she said. "No one questions Donald Trump in that way."
Finding these men at home can be a challenge and the AFL-CIO is addressing the problem instead by visiting men at their job sites, where chances of a conversation to address their concerns are much higher, she said.
The problem is especially acute within the building trades unions like electricians and pipefitters, whose members are predominantly male and white.
Larger service unions, where membership is more diverse, have witnessed a growing gender gap, where a drop in male support has been offset by a surge in support from women, labor officials say.
It's part of a phenomenon playing out across the country that could be a pivotal factor in the election, Reuters polling shows - Harris is gaining with women, especially white women, while Trump is polling better with men than he was in 2020.
James Maravelias, head of the Delaware AFL-CIO, said Harris' support among male members has been weaker in part because of her liberal track record on social issues and in part because of male chauvinism.
"I am afraid some won't come out at all," Maravelias said about potential impact on Election Day.
In interviews, AFL-CIO door knockers said some households view Harris and Democrats as strong defenders of union rights while others have lost faith in the Democratic Party and see more common ground with Trump.
“The men are the toughest doors,” said one of six door knockers interviewed. “They want to argue and there’s no agreement on the facts.”
An AFL-CIO-led door-knocking effort in the Philadelphia area was forced to narrow its focus to known Harris supporters after an expected wave of volunteers failed to materialize, according to a local organizer.
Most major unions have endorsed Harris, including the United Auto Workers union, but it is a mixed picture at the rank-and-file level across industries and different parts of the country.
POLL FAVORS HARRIS, BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO HELP HER WIN?
Support for Harris remains strong in Racine, Wisconsin, said Richard Glowacki, chairman of the UAW Local 180, which represents workers at a CNH Industrial's sprawling tractor factory on the outskirts of that faded blue-collar city.
He called demand for Harris' and other Democrats' yard signs "unreal" and said retirees are actively getting out the vote.
But the 1.3 million-member International Brotherhood of Teamsters, representing workers ranging from airline pilots to zookeepers, decided not to endorse a candidate in this election after a poll of members found Trump led Harris by 59.6% to 34%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump 47%-36% among Americans who were union members or had a family member in a union. The survey of 655 union household respondents was held Oct 16-21 and had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.
In the 2020 election, Biden had a 16-point advantage over Trump - 56% to 40% - in an Edison Research poll of people who lived in households with a union member.
Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, said steep losses in support among non-college educated males could be made up by gains from non-college educated women. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
UNION VOTES MATTER
Union workers make up one-fifth of the voters in battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, says the AFL-CIO, the largest federation of unions in the country that counts several building trades unions among its members.
The three states, known as the "Blue Wall" for their importance to Democrats, are among the seven battlegrounds that will decide Tuesday's presidential election.
Unions are also key to Democrats' "Get out the vote" efforts in these states, and their members traditionally knock on thousands of doors ahead of elections to rally voters.
Harris, who is also of South Asian origins, has dismissed concerns that sexism could hurt her chances of winning the White House, saying the country is "absolutely" ready to elect a female president.
Jimmy Williams, president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT), which has over 140,000 members, said a drop in support from men is being more than offset by women within his union.
"I have spoken to women members in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio and I can tell you, not one woman member that I have spoken to, has been somebody who has been supportive of Donald Trump, not one," he said.
Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and Nandita Bose; Editing by Heather Timmons and Howard Goller
Most unions have long supported Democratic candidates, and both Harris and President Joe Biden have backed unions in contract negotiations and championed workers' rights.
But Republican candidate Donald Trump, who was president from 2017-2021, has made inroads with union workers in recent years and any drop in support for Harris could be a decisive factor in the neck-and-neck race.
If elected, Harris would make U.S. history as the first female and second Black president, and sexism and racism have been seen as a hurdle to her winning.
Liz Shuler, president of the 12.5 million-member AFL-CIO, said enthusiasm for Harris is strong overall but sexism is likely undermining support for her in some unions.
"Let's be honest, there are people who look at a female candidate and at face value dismiss her because, you know, she's perceived as not being presidential," she said. "No one questions Donald Trump in that way."
Finding these men at home can be a challenge and the AFL-CIO is addressing the problem instead by visiting men at their job sites, where chances of a conversation to address their concerns are much higher, she said.
The problem is especially acute within the building trades unions like electricians and pipefitters, whose members are predominantly male and white.
Larger service unions, where membership is more diverse, have witnessed a growing gender gap, where a drop in male support has been offset by a surge in support from women, labor officials say.
It's part of a phenomenon playing out across the country that could be a pivotal factor in the election, Reuters polling shows - Harris is gaining with women, especially white women, while Trump is polling better with men than he was in 2020.
James Maravelias, head of the Delaware AFL-CIO, said Harris' support among male members has been weaker in part because of her liberal track record on social issues and in part because of male chauvinism.
"I am afraid some won't come out at all," Maravelias said about potential impact on Election Day.
In interviews, AFL-CIO door knockers said some households view Harris and Democrats as strong defenders of union rights while others have lost faith in the Democratic Party and see more common ground with Trump.
“The men are the toughest doors,” said one of six door knockers interviewed. “They want to argue and there’s no agreement on the facts.”
An AFL-CIO-led door-knocking effort in the Philadelphia area was forced to narrow its focus to known Harris supporters after an expected wave of volunteers failed to materialize, according to a local organizer.
Most major unions have endorsed Harris, including the United Auto Workers union, but it is a mixed picture at the rank-and-file level across industries and different parts of the country.
POLL FAVORS HARRIS, BUT WILL IT BE ENOUGH TO HELP HER WIN?
Support for Harris remains strong in Racine, Wisconsin, said Richard Glowacki, chairman of the UAW Local 180, which represents workers at a CNH Industrial's sprawling tractor factory on the outskirts of that faded blue-collar city.
He called demand for Harris' and other Democrats' yard signs "unreal" and said retirees are actively getting out the vote.
But the 1.3 million-member International Brotherhood of Teamsters, representing workers ranging from airline pilots to zookeepers, decided not to endorse a candidate in this election after a poll of members found Trump led Harris by 59.6% to 34%.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll showed Harris leading Trump 47%-36% among Americans who were union members or had a family member in a union. The survey of 655 union household respondents was held Oct 16-21 and had a margin of error of about 4 percentage points.
In the 2020 election, Biden had a 16-point advantage over Trump - 56% to 40% - in an Edison Research poll of people who lived in households with a union member.
Lauren Hitt, a spokeswoman for the Harris campaign, said steep losses in support among non-college educated males could be made up by gains from non-college educated women. The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
UNION VOTES MATTER
Union workers make up one-fifth of the voters in battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, says the AFL-CIO, the largest federation of unions in the country that counts several building trades unions among its members.
The three states, known as the "Blue Wall" for their importance to Democrats, are among the seven battlegrounds that will decide Tuesday's presidential election.
Unions are also key to Democrats' "Get out the vote" efforts in these states, and their members traditionally knock on thousands of doors ahead of elections to rally voters.
Harris, who is also of South Asian origins, has dismissed concerns that sexism could hurt her chances of winning the White House, saying the country is "absolutely" ready to elect a female president.
Jimmy Williams, president of the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades (IUPAT), which has over 140,000 members, said a drop in support from men is being more than offset by women within his union.
"I have spoken to women members in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio and I can tell you, not one woman member that I have spoken to, has been somebody who has been supportive of Donald Trump, not one," he said.
Reporting by Jarrett Renshaw and Nandita Bose; Editing by Heather Timmons and Howard Goller
- Joined
- Sep 3, 2023
It really fucked up the whole mystique of celebrities. At most you'd hear select words of them and interviews were curated to present them in the best light. Now that they're on display with no censor, they're exposing that they're nothing special and in fact most of them are incredibly retarded. The whole "Imagine" bullshit during the lockdowns really made a lot of people tired of celebrities and their dumbass opinions.
The cheating has been happening for decades. JFK cheated and a journalist found out about it (I believe it involved dozens, if not hundreds, of votes coming from single family homes). When the journalist brought the story to Nixon, he told them to bury it because he was more concerned that the chaos it would cause to America amidst the Cold War and how the Soviets would take advantage of it.
- Joined
- May 25, 2018
I actually watched the video in which this guy explained how he came to the conclusion that Kamala would win.
He doesn't claim to be a data collector or pollster, but he claims to be a historian. And his reasoning behind this prediction is that "elections are determined by the efficiency of the governing that is currently happening, so Kamala is going to win."
He used very fancy words to say, "I am a leftist globohomo, therefore I like this current administration, so I think they're going to win."
Dude sounded like he was full of total nonsense to me, but he's apparently the "expert" here.
Dr J
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Nov 13, 2020
It's not just that he chooses to stay loyal for more. Hollywood media machine built him and Hollywood media machine can destroy him, as they often do to people who cross them.
Baris has mocked Lichtman and his highly subjective model many many times
- Joined
- Nov 22, 2021
People used to wonder what did celebrities think about all the time. If recent events are anything to by, it turns out they don't think that much at all actually.
- Joined
- Mar 24, 2019
Completely correct, but how does this apply to celebrities and leftists, neither of which are people?
Romulus augustulus
kiwifarms.net
- Joined
- Apr 6, 2023
he is a fag. claims to have never been wrong despite getting it wrong in 2000 and i think 2004. He routinely twists his "keys" whatever way to give him the result the news stations that pay him appear on their programs want.
- Joined
- Mar 30, 2023
meanwhile my methodology can be summarised as "General public sentiment has swung away from Democrats and towards Republicans to the point that we should expect at least a 3% bump in each state towards Trump, compared to 2020"
No fancy wording, no special tables and charts, just looking at the 2020 results and comparing public mood from 2020 to 2024.
My rationale is irrefutable.
- Joined
- Sep 26, 2024
Knowing Rufo's background - I'm not surprised.
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