US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[Get the rope Macaulay!]

So why do so many women have such high body counts? How?

quick reminder that Ramona Flowers only had 7 exes and that was considered an absurdly high amount for a 23 year old woman in the 2000s. Although to be more honest the bitch in 4 weddings and a funeral in 93 said she fucked 32 guys, which is still a lot and was probably more of a joke about americans considering one of those sexual partners was a cousin.

I do know one chick who said she had a body count of over 600, but she was also a victim of CSA, and identifies as non-binary and is 40 and has been a hardcore drug addict since high school. I assume the average body count for trans people has to be 1000. I remember her telling me of an orgy she had with 8 other trans and NB "people"

As for True and Honest women i'd assume its more of a culture thing, as well as age. especially if you're a younger millennial and didn't get brainwashed with the aids crisis and other stuff. If you notice the red pill and MGTOW stuff doesn't really gain popularity until the 2010s. Plenty of dudes were able to get laid even while being lolcows in the 2000s.

You'd be amazed (in awe & disgust) how many body's a woman get in middle/high school because pressure from other women for social climbing/bfs who overselling the relationship or the aftermath of CSA.

demographic issues help too, a white girl in a majority minority school will act as sexual as the ghetto chicks do, whereas you'll have somewhat of a similar effect if its a token minority in an all white school. You also have the same thing happen when girls get to college, plenty that go from kissless virgins to double digits in the first week of college just from the freedom of the dorms.

 

[Fapcop]

Voted today. In and out in less than 20 minutes. It's amusing how smoothly poorer red states run elections compared to blue dominated areas. Didn't vote down-ballot Republican, but I couldn't bring myself to vote Dem for any position, even unopposed.

Anytime some shitlib tries to explain how it’s SOOPER complicated to run an election, remind the fucker that India, with over a billion people, somehow manages to pull of elections without any of this nonsense. And with voter ID.

I think Trump's "overperformance" will be much more muted this time. The whole reason the "shy Trump/GOP voter" effect exist is because the overwhelming political discourse in both 2020 and 2022 were overwhelmingly negative to expressing any sort of even mildly positive view of Trump.

This year however, it has become much more acceptable to state such, and along with how the unlikeable Cuntmala was and how badly the Israel Question has split the normally unified Left. So I suspect what we see here would be very close to how the election will turn out.

Depends. For some it’s acceptable. But I still think there are many shy Trump voters out there, in particular with women.

There are a lot “tide is changing” posts and I don’t totally disagree, but we’re still at a point where plenty of people need to hold their tongue at work or at social events.

 

[Kulee Baba]

Lichtman has been a full-blown terminal case of TDS since 2017. I think he's so incensed he can't bring himself to admit Trump has the advantage this year, IIRC even that other faggot Nate Silver called him out for misapplying his own criteria to predict a Kamala victory.
Oh and he also was vehemently against Biden dropping out, only to then come out and say that Harris akschually has this in the bag. If that's not a desperate flip-flop to salvage morale, I don't know what is.

It annoys me to no end that he's treated like a Nostradamus. His great achievement is predicting the Presidential Elections since Reagan correctly with the caveat of being wrong in 2000. And only the 2000 and 2016 Races were races were legit hard to predict who was going to be President. You really want me to be impressed that he could determine Bush would win in 2004 or that Obama would win his elections?

And finally any dummy who did Poly Sci 101 in college could "turn the Lichtman keys" for themselves and come out with their own conclusion. I disagree with Lichtman analysis I don't think Biden's administration has had a Major Policy Change (Key 7) I think most Americans see the Biden years as being a more inept version of the status quo. I think it's a scandal (Key 9) that the government and media tried to hide that Biden is clearly mentally unfit to be President which led to Biden dropping out. Finally I don't think we've had Major foreign or military success (Key 11) just because NATO has banded together to support Ukraine. I cannot understand how anyone thinks that's a success when Russia holds a major portion of Ukraine under its control. So to me there's "7 False Keys" not 4 so Trump should be the predicted winner following Lichtman's guide. Does that mean anything, no not really the 13 Keys is just made to think more underlying logic in a chaotic political system. I bet a good sports gambler could develop a "Keys to the Superbowl/World Series" and present themselves as a guru who could see into the future.

 

[Gehenna]

And finally any dummy who did Poly Sci 101 in college could "turn the Lichtman keys" for themselves and come out with their own conclusion. I disagree with Lichtman analysis I don't think Biden's administration has had a Major Policy Change (Key 7) I think most Americans see the Biden years as being a more inept version of the status quo. I think it's a scandal (Key 9) that the government and media tried to hide that Biden is clearly mentally unfit to be President which led to Biden dropping out. Finally I don't think we've had Major foreign or military success (Key 11) just because NATO has banded together to support Ukraine. I cannot understand how anyone thinks that's a success when Russia holds a major portion of Ukraine under its control. So to me there's "7 False Keys" not 4 so Trump should be the predicted winner following Lichtman's guide. Does that mean anything, no not really the 13 Keys is just made to think more underlying logic in a chaotic political system. I bet a good sports gambler could develop a "Keys to the Superbowl/World Series" and present themselves as a guru who could see into the future.

A little bit of political sperging, the problem with the Keys as a fundamental construct is their creator. He refuses to add to them or modify them based on new info. It is clear that there are other historical factors at play that could be added in but the man refuses to budge and believes his creation is perfect as is.

 

[Dr J]

I think Trump's "overperformance" will be much more muted this time. The whole reason the "shy Trump/GOP voter" effect exist is because the overwhelming political discourse in both 2020 and 2022 were overwhelmingly negative to expressing any sort of even mildly positive view of Trump.

This year however, it has become much more acceptable to state such, and along with how the unlikeable Cuntmala was and how badly the Israel Question has split the normally unified Left. So I suspect what we see here would be very close to how the election will turn out.

That's not factoring in a lot of the low propensity or first time voters who the polling is more likely to miss.

Like the Amish, for example. There are something like 80,000 eligible Amish people in Pennsylvania, more than enough to give Trump the state if they all turned up. They don't use technology, no phones, no internet. How in God's name do you poll people like that?

Also, shy Trump voter is still in effect. They're still jailing people for January 6th, and if you live in a predominantly shitlib area, it's still not a popular or socially accepted view to love or even agree with Donald Trump.

 

[Fapcop]

Bonus humiliation points - meaning all us conservatards have to kill ourselves - if you can prove that the extreme anal practices of faggots do not actually gradually destroy the sphincter muscles and result in an extremely high rate of incontinence among gay men in their 40s.

Heh, let me FACTCHECK you Chud!

Let’s see what THE AUTHORITIES and trusted EXPERTS say!

Oh…



Oh dear!

A little bit of political sperging, the problem with the Keys as a fundamental construct is their creator. He refuses to add to them or modify them based on new info. It is clear that there are other historical factors at play that could be added in but the man refuses to budge and believes his creation is perfect as is.

It’s particularly dumb because many of them aren’t black and white and Lichtman tries to game them by saying: “The US isn’t at war”

Oh really?

Spoiler

View attachment 6586367
View attachment 6586368

Is it a declared war? No, but it sure ain’t peace either.

Lichtman claims that you need six of the thirteen keys to win against the incumbent, and he claims that Kamala only has four keys against her.

He gets there by not counting Social unrest, war, and the short term and long term economic outcome.

Which is just laughable.

TLDR: Lichtmans “keys” are just common sense and he needs to massage them to make Kamala predicted as the winner.

 

[AN/ALR56]

Heh, let me FACTCHECK you Chud!

Let’s see what THE AUTHORITIES and trusted EXPERTS say!

Oh…

View attachment 6586346

Oh dear!


It’s particularly dumb because many of them aren’t black and white and Lichtman tries to game them by saying: “The US isn’t at war”

Oh really?

Spoiler

View attachment 6586367
View attachment 6586368

Is it a declared war? No, but it sure ain’t peace either.

Lichtman claims that you need six of the thirteen keys to win against the incumbent, and he claims that Kamala only has four keys against her.

He gets there by not counting Social unrest, war, and the short term and long term economic outcome.

Which is just laughable.

TLDR: Lichtmans “keys” are just common sense and he needs to massage them to make Kamala predicted as the winner.

Look up how taking it in the ass makes you have myocarditis and then heart attack if you really wanna be disgusted.

 

[Crex Crex]

A little bit of political sperging, the problem with the Keys as a fundamental construct is their creator. He refuses to add to them or modify them based on new info. It is clear that there are other historical factors at play that could be added in but the man refuses to budge and believes his creation is perfect as is.

The last-moment replacement of a candidate should factor in his model and it still doesn't.

IMO the biggest hint of him possibly fucking up this year's prediction is still him claiming until the last moment that Biden was the only hope for dem victory, only to give Kamala the same odds as if none of that mattered.

 

[Kankichi Ryotsu]

I actually watched the video in which this guy explained how he came to the conclusion that Kamala would win.

He doesn't claim to be a data collector or pollster, but he claims to be a historian. And his reasoning behind this prediction is that "elections are determined by the efficiency of the governing that is currently happening, so Kamala is going to win."

He used very fancy words to say, "I am a leftist globohomo, therefore I like this current administration, so I think they're going to win."

Dude sounded like he was full of total nonsense to me, but he's apparently the "expert" here.

He's the famous guru that always predicted the elections accurately. Except for that time Bush won. Oh, and also that time Trump won because his model was supposed to predict the popular vote. Oh and ALSO that time he said Biden was pretty much guaranteed to beat Trump this year.

 

[draggs]

He's the famous guru that always predicted the elections accurately. Except for that time Bush won. Oh, and also that time Trump won because his model was supposed to predict the popular vote. Oh and ALSO that time he said Biden was pretty much guaranteed to beat Trump this year.

It's not so much that his "keys" are bullshit as he retroactively said he didn't mean the popular vote after 2016 when before that he had always said it meant the popular vote, and this year he is saying several "keys" apply to Kumala that simply do not, just because Orange Man Bad

 

[Kiwi Love Thread]

Updated Election Predictions

 

[Dammit Mandrake!]

Trump is going to win it easily.

 

[Sithis]

I'm not racist, but I can count on the fingers of one hand the times I've seen a good looking, well spoken, based black lady.
This episode of the Piers Morgan show has one of those! I was shocked! I've never seen this lady before. Sage Steele is her name. I like her.
Feel free to ignore the rest of the show, it's mostly garbage. But this lady is interesting. She comes on after the Crowder segment. Worth to check her out.
She BTFO that faggot male feminist. It was beautiful.

Not going to archive this.

She just be making the rounds, she was on Gutfeld last night as well. I also tend to like Harris Faulkner, she isn't so much Le Based but she is highly intelligent and articulate and does a good job of analyzing a lot of the weird shit the left does.

 

[Puff]

Probably a dumb question, but why couldn't the Republicans enter an alliance with the We the People party? That way, all RFK Jr votes would go to the Trump ticket as well.

In the US you vote for a candidate, not a party.

 

[WhiskeyJack]

Eh, the Keys model is way overly complicated to begin with. 90% of elections are instantly predictable purely on the basis of name recognition and incumbency status, and just looking at polling trends you could've predicted every election for the last 50 years save for 2000 and 2016. And neither were that hard to predict if you thought about them logically.

The only reason 2000 was a close race electorally was because of a freak snow storm in New Mexico and Pat Buchanan pulling conservative votes from Iowa (and arguably even Oregon was potentially on the table that year, it was within 0.5%), and possibly depressed Republican votes from Florida getting called so early.

Florida was only close because 5 major media networks called Florida for Gore at around 7:30PM, well before the panhandle had finished voting, depressing the Republican vote. Without that, Bush would've been up several thousand votes, and the state wouldn't have been contested. Obvious media interference like that is not really predictable by a model, let alone these Keys. It's a Black Swan event, essentially.

Spoiler: The rest of this is long and rambles on, I'm too tired to self-edit

Jeb won the governorship just two years earlier by more than 10% and reelection two years later by 13%, and Clinton/Gore were very unpopular with Cubans after the Elian Gonzalez debacle. So without prior knowledge of the medias' interference, anyone would've guessed Bush would win Florida and thus the Presidency. Lieberman would've been a better fit for the top of the ticket, he'd have done better in Florida than Gore should have.

2016 was the only other hard race to guess if you went by state polling, and even then it was pretty obvious that Trump was uniquely popular while Hillary was horribly unpopular with her own party. She'd lost to an upstart 8 years earlier and was in bad health, and was never well liked to begin with. She had no charisma and she barely campaigned, and had no real primary.

Whereas Trump had jumped ahead of Jeb and a dozen+ other challengers with ease. Much like Obama (and even Bush jr. really), Trump beat the next-in-line nominee candidate the party leadership had selected years earlier, and people who can do that have to be very popular with their party base, have significant crossover support from indies, and naturally have higher levels of enthusiasm.

I called 2016 for Trump the moment he knocked Jeb out of the race before Super Tuesday, purely on the basis of my theory that anyone capable of knocking out a frontrunner is by default an extremely strong candidate.

Really only 2020 was hard to determine from my own reasoning and experience, though just going by polling you'd have easily picked Biden by default. But Biden was very weak, didn't run a campaign, and Trump was still popular and had actually kept us out of wars and until Covid the economy was the strongest in my adult lifetime: and indeed, Trump gained more votes than any incumbent in history despite Covid and Fauci's constant haranguing. That alone is enough to make the election results suspicious, even before seeing the late night vote dumps that go in Biden's favor by nearly 100%, yet don't seem to effect downticket races (Republicans only lost one or two minor downticket races in Wisconsin, for example).

2024 is the first election since 2004 that the Republican candidate is steadily ahead in the polls for most battleground states, and the first in my memory where the Republican candidate was ahead in the polls nationally for most of the race even a year out. Going only by the polls, you'd have to naturally conclude Trump would win this one. Going by the Keys, if figured honestly, Kamala is painfully weak and Trump should have the advantage. But the model is being contorted to ignore the weaknesses of Kamala and Biden before her, due to an obvious bias.

Obviously fraud is still a major concern, and makes it impossible to be truly certain of anything. But by my own reasoning and experience of watching politics play out, I will not be surprised if Trump ends up at 312EVs.

 

[Shazam]

Nope. A lot of the Republican early vote has been from low-propensity and first-time voters. These are also the kinds of people polling are likely to miss.

A lot of Amish and Mennonite are apparently voting for Trump. Well, how in the hell do you poll them?

I actually live pretty close to Lancaster. I see Amish people all the time. It's pretty amusing watching someone dressed like it's the 1800s use a self-checkout in a modern grocery store. They're based af actually. Even the women.

 

[Your Girlfriend's Dad]

I just had a 12 hour overnight shift on an ambulance on fucking Halloween and got a complete no-hitter. Not a singular fucking call to 911.

This is clearly a powerful portent that the malicious forces of clown world are receding. I believe this to be a strong mystical sign for Trump.

I need to confer with @Larry David's Opera Cape to see if his bird mysticism confers.

 

[Onepumpplumpchump]

I feel like the stars are aligning for a complete and utterly meltdown on Tuesday/Wednesday go out and vote do your part and be ready to clip and screenshot.

 

[Get the rope Macaulay!]

I bet a good sports gambler could develop a "Keys to the Superbowl/World Series" and present themselves as a guru who could see into the future.

i doubt it, people are more willing to call out "experts" when its something they're passionate about and we have about a million "spartacus" level autists in the US for any given sport. literally we have an entire industry built around sports talk and forums because of how proudly autistic people are about 32nd guessing the experts. There was a semi-famous blog post about it back in the 2000s about how if people were as invested in politics as they were in sports we wouldn't be where we are right now because they'd be forcing representatives to resign at the first major fuck up. every primary would be harder to win than an election in a toss up because of the expectations and demands people have of players and especially coaches vs our actual representatives. every year 10% of NFL coaches are fired, meanwhile there's like a 0.1% chance of not winning re-election by the time you hit congress.

The second someone tires that "keys" bullshit he'd be flooded with critics like post-arrest Rekeita.

and if you live in a predominantly shitlib area, it's still not a popular or socially accepted view to love or even agree with Donald Trump

One of the podcasts Trump was on got a venue they were holding a huge 10k person event for completely shut down and this was with less than 2 months before it was supposed to happen. If even people in a red state are facing repercussions for doing an episode with trump what hope do normies have?

Look up how taking it in the ass makes you have myocarditis and then heart attack if you really wanna be disgusted.

how come we never hear of any pornstars dying from anal related diseases

. I also tend to like Harris Faulkner,

I like her too, but only because of Red Eye, there was a 2012 episode where she changed out of her "newswoman" clothes and just did the episode in a white t-shirt, but i guess she didn't realize how the lighting was so you could see through her shirt and especially see her brown nipples. This being red eye, they naturally joked about it, i think the first story was even about a porn star and Greg even said "thank you for dressing for the story" to her because it was HBO tier see through.

This also being Red Eye no one really cared much because they didn't get in trouble. I think the year before they did an episode entirely in a strip club, one of the people on Fox & Friends joined them for that one, but i think it might have just been a spur of the moment thing, like he was just a patron and went "yeah that's why i'm here" and got roped into it.

I just had a 12 hour overnight shift on an ambulance on fucking Halloween and got a complete no-hitter. Not a singular fucking call to 911.

This is clearly a powerful portent that the malicious forces of clown world are receding. I believe this to be a strong mystical sign for Trump.

I need to confer with @Larry David's Opera Cape to see if his bird mysticism confers.

You sure your radio just wasn't broken?

 

[draggs]

I also tend to like Harris Faulkner, she isn't so much Le Based but she is highly intelligent and articulate and does a good job of analyzing a lot of the weird shit the left does.

I can't stand Harris Faulkner

Her voice is extremely annoying

Never heard her saying anything that isn't the most basic bitch take expressed in the most dumbed down way possible