US US Politics General - Discussion of President Biden and other politicians

 

[Bloodthirsty Nosenigger]

If PA is called early, though, it's almost certain Trump wins.

Most of the swing states polls are within the margin of error, but Trump has a good chance to win most of them.
If he wins any one out of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, it's likely going to be enough.

 

[HOMO FOR LIFE RETURNS]

I wonder what their internals look like, I honestly can't believe for a second that PA is a close race.

This is a R+2 national environment. That's fucking not even close. Anyone telling anything this is a close election and / or Harris is doing great is lying to you. Full stop.

 

[Bucephalus]

No tips on taxes is huge in Clark County. DO you know how much money people in the casinos comes from tips?

Kamala's also saying she wants no taxes on tips now. I know she's piggybacking off of Trump's proposal, but that might stifle some of the momentum he got from that.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

For any folks that were alive when Reagan won in 1980 and 1984.

What was it like in the leadup to both landslides?

I was very little for 1984 but I remember it.

It was a very intense fever of patriotism (not manufactured by politicians, but coming out of Hollywood). That summer had the Olympics in LA and Reagan was talking both sides out his mouth about checking the Soviets but also calling for world peace.

There was nothing likeable about Dukakis and he came across as a used car salesman in a seersucker suit.

Very similar in presentation to Kamala right now, with the fakery. If the election were in 1985 during the Iran Contra hearings paired with a Texas Democrat like Ann Richards, he would have lost.

 

[Burnt Effigy]

I haven't seen this one but I think this is valuable info, and tells a lot about what's going on in the Harris campaign.

The only reason why she would cancel on Michigan to go on SNL (of all things) is because their internal polls most likely indicate Michigan is not worth touching, my best guess would be the RCP No-Toss-Ups map is closest to what they have.

The only reason why she would focus her last 3 rallies on Pennsylvania is if their internal polls indicate PA is a close enough swing state, which is key enough to win the election.

With such desperation, the only way she wins is by edging out the electoral vote.

My best guess is, they're going for this, the RCP NTU map with Pennsylvania flipped (Highlighted in dark blue here)
View attachment 6594678

https://xcancel.com/JackPosobiec/status/1853051319843512384 / https://archive.is/bBJQB

View attachment 6594685

Thought I'd go back to this and look at Trump's strategy:


We have 3 rallies in North Carolina, 3 in Pennsylvania, and then one each in Virginia, Georgia, and Michigan.

What does RCP tell us?


Trump's strategy seems to be to capture NC and PA, and throw a bone to MI, VA and GA to hopefully get a last minute sway.
Even if he loses MI, VA, and GA, he's still at 271 EVs. He's clearly in a much better position than Kamala, even if he loses a few of the toss-up states.

For reference, this is the current state of RCP NTU

Pennsylvania	North Carolina	Virginia	Georgia	Michigan	EVs
​	​	​	​	​	287​

Here's a bunch of tables of all the important combinations from his last rallies, assuming RCP NTU is correct otherwise.

Pennsylvania	North Carolina	Virginia	Georgia	Michigan	EVs
​	​	​	​	​	255​
​	​	​	​	​	271​
					268​
​	​	​	​	​	271​
​	​	​	​	​	270​

Any win in Pennsylvania with any other state, except for Virginia, is a win.

Pennsylvania	North Carolina	Virginia	Georgia	Michigan	EVs
​	​	​	​	​	280​
​	​	​	​	​	283​
​	​	​	​	​	280​
​	​	​	​	​	281​

Without Pennsylvania, any combination of three states makes him win.

 

[Escaped Abortion]

I'm curious... is there any way we could determine what percentage of this thread has early voted? These early vote numbers are insane, but almost none of the the right-wing people I know personally have early voted. Something really isn't adding up, at least from what I've seen. Is it possible that the reduced democrat turnout and the increased republican turnout is actually... the same exact people who would normally be breaking left, breaking right? Could the right-wing early voters actually be mostly independents and previously left leaners registering as republicans and early voting as usual? If that were the case it'd be a total blowout come election day.

I mean, we could use a third party polling site, but only editing the top post with a new poll if that's even possible would be prominent enough to make it meaningful. That would have to be its own thread, which again, wouldn't have the same traction.

For your curiosity, I vote day of myself. I like to feel I made my decision after fully hearing out the arguments on both sides. I don't expect an upset this late in the game. I live in a liberal area, so I have never experienced early poll closings, or any kind of wait really to vote. Voting early would be way more of an inconvenience, too.

I did vote absentee once because I had a vacation scheduled for election day one year, but that was the only time. My friends are pressuring me to vote early, but that's only because they think I'm blue no matter who and the threats of knifing me for expressing political thoughts they don't like, such as "I fully support free speech and am put off by how dems have trampled it to suppress challenges to their power," have made me fall back in line. It has not.

 

[Red Saltire]

Most of the swing states polls are within the margin of error, but Trump has a good chance to win most of them.
If he wins any one out of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, it's likely going to be enough.

I’m probably wrong but if Trump wins I think it would be more likely that Harris sweeps the rust belt but Trump flips a state like NH or VA. Also I know the IA poll is an outlier but I believe such a thing could be possible. I have very little faith in polling at all. It seems like it’s just a very elaborate superstition. Oh you’re telling me you called voters on the phone and asked them who they were going to vote for? Great.

 

[Catboy Ranch]

Without Pennsylvania, any combination

This post needs to be the highlighted post tbh. Probably a Community Happenings 2.

 

[Nuns with guns]

Who advised Trump to have his Lancaster rally on Sunday? Obviously this won’t kill his campaign, but he’s missing on that Amish support.

 

[Puff]

This is a R+2 national environment. That's fucking not even close. Anyone telling anything this is a close election and / or Harris is doing great is lying to you. Full stop.

No, it's razor thin close and we need every vote, even if you're in a safe red or blue state.

 

[Jade Philosophies]

Latino birth rates have been dropping quite a bit, especially per generation, though that's also partly because they're the group that views themselves as the most 'white' and marry whites at astounding rates. Which, to be fair, latinos are pretty fucking white on average, or even occasionally actually goddamn german. It's necessary to realize that the census data being used to determine whiteness in these studies is retarded, especially when it comes to latinos that are more white than most of Europe. Their issues aren't ethnicity related, but instead are due to globohomo, cartels, and the CIA bullying them into submission.

The biggest issue for demographics isn't latinos, but moreso retarded africans, incestuous muzzies, and slimey indians. If those gain any significant foothold on American politics, then we're doubly fucked.

You have a point. Not only are there latinos that are literally just White but many have a lot of White genes, It would probably only take a couple of generations to breed the non-White out of those people's descendants. Look at all the people with indian (feather) ancestry but are for all intents and purposes White. There are various celebrities like Elvis, Burt Reynolds, Chuck Norris, Tommy Lee Jones, Heather Locklear and Johnny Depp.

 

[King Metalia]

Who advised Trump to have his Lancaster rally on Sunday? Obviously this won’t kill his campaign, but he’s missing on that Amish support.

Are the Amish known for voting in high numbers?

Most of the swing states polls are within the margin of error, but Trump has a good chance to win most of them.
If he wins any one out of Pennsylvania, Michigan or Wisconsin, it's likely going to be enough.

I'm personally hoping Trump manages to flip a usually blue state because it would be funny.

 

[Sailor Kim Jong Moon]

I'm curious... is there any way we could determine what percentage of this thread has early voted? These early vote numbers are insane, but almost none of the the right-wing people I know personally have early voted. Something really isn't adding up, at least from what I've seen. Is it possible that the reduced democrat turnout and the increased republican turnout is actually... the same exact people who would normally be breaking left, breaking right? Could the right-wing early voters actually be mostly independents and previously left leaners registering as republicans and early voting as usual? If that were the case it'd be a total blowout come election day.

I am a white woman in a swing state and I early voted.

I carpooled with my good friend who voted Harris. I wasn’t going to vote but figured I would just to undermine them.

If anyone asks, I tell them I voted Jill Stein because I have climate anxiety. I didn’t affiliate with either R or D when asked.

 

[Pure Snort]

Anybody not voting because they believe Trump has such a great lead is missing the point. The point is imagine a world where Trump wins the popular vote, nothing in our lives will compare to a lefty reaction to that, if this opportunity is missed I'll be left wondering my entire life of what could have been.

 

[COME ON OUT YOU RAPIST]

Anybody not voting because they believe Trump has such a great lead

People keep saying this but I've never seen anyone actually say "I won't bother voting since Trump is leading."

 

[Haloperidol]

Grateful I only got aborted for 12hrs He’s just mad I only have eyes for one chubby-faced blue-eyed shitposter please don’t ban me again I’m having fun.

I also got this in the mail yesterday, yeah it's public record and probably pretty standard but the shaming tactic is a bit annoying to me.

 

[Mark Goldbridge]

USA is a constitutional republic, not a democracy. If it was a democracy, there could be laws that override the constitution.

 

[Pampered Degenerate]

Anybody not voting because they believe Trump has such a great lead is missing the point. The point is imagine a world where Trump wins the popular vote, nothing in our lives will compare to a lefty reaction to that, if this opportunity is missed I'll be left wondering my entire life of what could have been.

People need to remember that the goal is not just to win, but to win, then keep winning, until you win so much that you get tired of winning, and then maybe win some more just to really rub it into the niggerfaggots' faces.

 

[Puff]

Grateful I only got aborted for 12hrs He’s just mad I only have eyes for one chubby-faced blue-eyed shitposter please don’t ban me again I’m having fun.

I also got this in the mail yesterday, yeah it's public record and probably pretty standard but the shaming tactic is a bit annoying to me.
View attachment 6594973

Shaming isn't the right word. It's vaguely threatening if you ask me.

 

[George Lucas]

I'm honestly gonna say it, the top or middle scenarios are the most likely

That doesn’t make sense at all. The model predicts equal probability for the three scenarios, and the model was made when recent polls were more favorable to Harris. The last set of polls show a return back to Trump favorability with the exception of the moony Iowa poll.

You really ought to take some time to do some basic critical thinking before making flippant remarks like that.