Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[No. 7 cat]

Bulwark article on 1000 days of Ukraine's war / original link

This is quite a fair summary from people who are possibly not massive fans of one Donald John Trump (they avoid anything on that score). They suggest a weaker ardor amongst younger people, but that Ukraine is holding its own despite a series of small Russian gains in the East.

Extract:

Unfortunately, Ukraine arrived at the 1,000-day mark after months of setbacks. Its situation is probably not as dire as its detractors claim. It is, for instance, slowly clawing back some lost ground near the city of Toretsk and inflicting a lot of damage on Russian troops. Russia’s attempts so far to drive the Ukrainians from Kursk, the Russian region that Ukraine has partially controlled since a daring August incursion, have failed. Nonetheless, Russia’s gains in Eastern Ukraine—while slow, relatively small, and extremely expensive in lives and equipment—are creating a new narrative of nearly inevitable Russian victory.
That narrative ignores serious troubles on Russia’s horizon, from the precarious state of the war-squeezed economy to the manpower shortages—in conjunction with Putin’s evident fears that large-scale mobilization will drive discontent. Strong, confident, modern militaries don’t turn to North Korea for help.
But Ukraine has its own morale problems, and the shifting fortunes of war are affecting Ukrainian opinion. While support for peace negotiations remains a minority view, the share of Ukrainians who agree that “under no circumstances should Ukraine give up any of its territories” even if it means that the war will last longer has dropped considerably in the last two years—from 87 percent in September 2022 to 58 percent this past October. And these numbers may underrate support for concessions. Ukrainians don’t have to fear reprisals for bucking the party line—but, as the staunchly patriotic Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov pointed out in a recent interview, some respondents may be embarrassed to tell a pollster that they would give away land for peace.

Their close of 'will it make a difference? The next two months will tell. For now, Ukraine is still standing and fighting' seems suited to the situation.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

This might have something to do with it:
View attachment 6665749

"Deviation from the target: 150m"
One-Hundred and Fifty Meters.
Thats just under 500ft for my fellow 'Muricans.
And that's the fucking CEP.


Now for delivering a DC/Paris/London-levelling weapon, 150m is peanuts when delivering a 6km+ radius nuclear blast.
But for a conventional payload? Its utility is extremely limited, especially given Russia would basically be paying for an ICBM-tier delivery & launch platform for a tactical conventional weapon.

 

[purpleflurp]

"Deviation from the target: 150m"
One-Hundred and Fifty Meters.
Thats just under 500ft for my fellow 'Muricans.
And that's the fucking CEP.


Now for delivering a DC/Paris/London-levelling weapon, 150m is peanuts when delivering a 6km+ radius nuclear blast.
But for a conventional payload? Its utility is extremely limited, especially given Russia would basically be paying for an ICBM-tier delivery & launch platform for a tactical conventional weapon.

So the gist is "It's really impressive if you don't know anything about long-range missile tech"

 

[Snekposter]

That's just cruel and inhumane. What's point of playing CoD if you can't call people faggot on voice?

Considering Acti-Blizz has gone out of their way to moderate voice these days he couldn't do that even if he was legally allowed. I'm pretty sure trying to teabag someone in a modern Halo game is off-limits, too.

"Deviation from the target: 150m"
One-Hundred and Fifty Meters.
Thats just under 500ft for my fellow 'Muricans.
And that's the fucking CEP.


Now for delivering a DC/Paris/London-levelling weapon, 150m is peanuts when delivering a 6km+ radius nuclear blast.
But for a conventional payload? Its utility is extremely limited, especially given Russia would basically be paying for an ICBM-tier delivery & launch platform for a tactical conventional weapon.

Meanwhile in the 1950's the USA got the Honest John, a completely unguided rocket that was pointed at the enemy and then launched off a rail at them down to 250 yards (228m) CEP.

Only stabilization is its own spin, no gyroscope, no guidance, no maneuvering, 228m CEP. Granted it wasn't fired at a target 6,000km away, but given how accurate Russian claims about CEP have actually been when demonstrated (like you know, Kalibr) I'd say 228m for that thing they're boasting about is just a little optimistic.

Anyways, since shit's slowed down in the field due to it being that time of the year...

https://archive.ph/A18pa

Russia economy crumbling with food prices skyrocketing as Putin's problems mount​

Yeah, its the Express, but even so, its not like there's room for them to lie.

As for nuclear threats:


Sadly the meme magic right now is as dead and faded as Putin's hopes of conquering Kiev outright.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Putins nuclear threats are completely flat at this point. Nobody believes them, and more importantly everyone believes that if Putin does use nukes it will be an exchange Russia would not survive.

He's rattled the nuclear Sabre one too many times. It's at the point that even a demonstration use of a nuclear weapon on Ukraine could bring NATO down on him like a sack of bricks. And he knows it. China has also said all but publicly if Russia uses nukes they are on their own.

It's important to note that at no point in history has a US President rattled the nuclear Sabre. The threat of American nukes has always been an implied force of nature. Never a matter of formal policy or negotiations. France, China and the UK have been the same way. Putin is the only clown that dances around about how he's totally going to nuke the world this time.

He's done it for 20 years and the threat is no longer landing.

 

[Ghostse]

He's rattled the nuclear Sabre one too many times. It's at the point that even a demonstration use of a nuclear weapon on Ukraine could bring NATO down on him like a sack of bricks. And he knows it. China has also said all but publicly if Russia uses nukes they are on their own.

China saying they are "on their own" is a bit of an understatement.

To tl;dr the CCP isn't very popular in China, but the population largely puts up with their rule because 'the trains run on time'. Ok they don't actually run on time and often at all, and when they do there are often hilarious accidents from naked graft and incompetence. What I mean is that China is at peace - there is no war on Chinese soil. As long as you don't say anything bad about the Party, you can live your bugman ditch-shitting life without fear of mongols burning your home and not letting you watch while they rape your wife. So you shrug and accept not being able to call Xi a small, crooked dicked Winnie the Pooh cosplayer as the price of getting to live a quiet life. (this is part of a wider cultural philosophy I'll not get into)

Now, Russia starts lobbing nuclear weapons, and suddenly that peaceful life is at threat - real or imagined. A bunch of niggers killing each other in Africa isn't an issue, but missiles start flying and now the Celestrial Empire is threated; potentially underlock down and undersiege. Now you have your locust population wondering "Why do we put up with the CCP's bullshit when they can't even keep us at peace?"

So I think that if China had good reason to believe Russia would actually launch a nuke, American use of sacred Chinese airspace is probably on the table to stop it. If Putin presses the button, once Russia has blown most of its load on Europe, there is no reason China wouldn't show Russia what a real meatwave looks like and take Siberia.

So the gist is "It's really impressive if you don't know anything about long-range missile tech"

"Russia's X system has impressive stats if you don't know anything about X. And if you forget that lies, copes, an assumes conditions not possible in the real world let alone the battlefield when they put out their fact sheets" is pretty much a universal statement.

Considering Acti-Blizz has gone out of their way to moderate voice these days he couldn't do that even if he was legally allowed. I'm pretty sure trying to teabag someone in a modern Halo game is off-limits, too.

My character identifies as a woman preventing her from teabagging with her ladyscrote is a hate crime.

 

[Least Concern]

So I think that if China had good reason to believe Russia would actually launch a nuke, American use of sacred Chinese airspace is probably on the table to stop it. If Putin presses the button, once Russia has blown most of its load on Europe, there is no reason China wouldn't show Russia what a real meatwave looks like and take Siberia.

There is no way the CCP would let the imperialist dogs use their airbases even temporarily. It would make them look weak, both in the sense of the Americans "invading" and "occupying" their bases, as well as admitting that there was a problem with a neighbor that mandate-of-heaven-holding CCP couldn't solve themselves so they had to let the war-mongering Americans bring their machines of death onto Chinese soil (6000-year civilization by the way).

Not that it would be necessary anyway in the extremely hypothetical case the US needs to start actually bombing Russia themselves. The populated parts in the east could be hit from Europe and the west from Japan and South Korea. Should there be something in the vast empty middle which needs to be hit and is too far away from either, maybe Canada would let us use two igloos and a cleared patch of ice in the islands of the Northern Territories or something.

 

[Ghostse]

There is no way the CCP would let the imperialist dogs use their airbases even temporarily. It would make them look weak, both in the sense of the Americans "invading" and "occupying" their bases, as well as admitting that there was a problem with a neighbor that mandate-of-heaven-holding CCP couldn't solve themselves so they had to let the war-mongering Americans bring their machines of death onto Chinese soil (6000-year civilization by the way).

Not that it would be necessary anyway in the extremely hypothetical case the US needs to start actually bombing Russia themselves. The populated parts in the east could be hit from Europe and the west from Japan and South Korea. Should there be something in the vast empty middle which needs to be hit and is too far away from either, maybe Canada would let us use two igloos and a cleared patch of ice in the islands of the Northern Territories or something.

Not using their airbases, but for example allowing B-2chan to transit their airspace, and possibly allowing american military craft to land in case of emergency.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

A lot of these pointless discussions are the fruit of people fundamentally misunderstanding the situation. They eat up the bullshit that Russia had any legitimate security concerns regarding full scale invasion by foreign powers, no one had interest in that after USSR fell apart - it was time of reconciliation and cooperation, and pretty much all former adversaries of Russia were looking forward to a period of peace that hopefully wouldn't end.
We're finding ourselves here because Putin chose to revive old fears and wield them to fulfill his personal ambitions. It's all a goddamn farce that's on the verge of becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy due to his refusal to see reason.

 

[Vince McMahon]

Supposedly, Dnipro was struck with an ICBM today. Seems to be aligning with what was posted a few pages ago and it was launched from that area. Apparently, that area is also being droned right now.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

Supposedly, Dnipro was struck with an ICBM today. Seems to be aligning with what was posted a few pages ago and it was launched from that area. Apparently, that area is also being droned right now.

any source? EDIT: damn yeah they did

Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says​

 

[Product Placement]

If Russia wants to start using intercontinental ballistic missiles, then Ukraine should be given and be allowed to use them as well to strike deeper into Russia. Russia keeps escalating the war, and EU and American reaction to it is always half-assed and slow. If Russia didn't want retaliation, then they should be doing shit like that, bringing North Koreans in, or hell they shouldn't have started this ego war in the first place.

 

[-Jack-]

If Russia wants to start using intercontinental ballistic missiles, then Ukraine should be given and be allowed to use them as well to strike deeper into Russia. Russia keeps escalating the war, and EU and American reaction to it is always half-assed and slow. If Russia didn't want retaliation, then they should be doing shit like that, bringing North Koreans in, or hell they shouldn't have started this ego war in the first place.

The west won’t do shit, they should of let Ukraine do whatever the fuck it wants, poking the bear? The west should he skinning the bear and using it as a fucking rug.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Supposedly, Dnipro was struck with an ICBM today.

Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says

Footage:

Edit: unblurred version.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

Some argue it couldn't be an ICBM but rather, a smaller (possibly Korean) ballistic missile.

I also heard the rumours that today it was just a test and real deal is aimed at Kiev. At least Ukrainian side believed so.

THAAD when?

 

[purpleflurp]

The west won’t do shit, they should of let Ukraine do whatever the fuck it wants, poking the bear? The west should he skinning the bear and using it as a fucking rug.

I remember a story my older coworker told me from when he was living in the soviet union.

One year, they had a bear that would wander through their village at night and rummage through trash, but since it wasn't doing anything too major they just said fuck it and left it be. Problem is, since the bear was so comfortable around the village it eventually started going after livestock and pets, and that pissed off everybody. So a couple of the men in the village set some traps, caught the thing, shot it in the head, and used its corpse to teach their sons the proper way to skin an animal. And while they got rid of the problem, killing that bear didn't bring back anything it hunted down. They dealt with the problems as they happened, when they could have prevented them from happening in the first place.

When it comes to this whole war, the west has only been responding to Russia's aggression reactively, when the EU and US should have been proactively working to stop Russian advances.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Footage:

Whatever it was, it had a lot of independent warheads. The claim is that they launched it at a "strategic" industrial area, but I wouldn't be surprised if the next step is dropping a couple of them on purely civilian areas. They have form already. Whenever Ukraine has made them look like fools, blown up an ammo dump, or taken out command staff, they bomb civilians. Sometimes even their own.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

The ICMB in question happens to be RS-26 Rubezh which is around 150kt - 300kt. In comparison. The Hiroshima bomb is 15kt.

 

[Pedophobe]

The ICMB in question happens to be RS-26 Rubezh which is around 150kt - 300kt. In comparison. The Hiroshima bomb is 15kt.

That clearly wasn't a nuke though. If it was that missile they put some kind of goofy non-nuclear warhead/RVs on it.

 

[Alex Hogendorp]

That clearly wasn't a nuke though. If it was that missile they put some kind of goofy non-nuclear warhead/RVs on it.

Yeah. I figured so. I didn't see the mushroom cloud honestly. I am kind of a retard when it comes to nukes. It was just around 7 Davy Crocket's or something.