With respect to Israel specifically, I really don't see HTS making nice with the Jews, even though it could be incredibly beneficial for the stability of their rule. If they were to recognize the Israeli annexation of the Golan and move to establish normal diplomatic and trade ties the Israelis would recognize their government immediately, which would probably cause the rest of the world to follow along as well. Normal ties with Israel would also help reverse the economic collapse of the country and possibly give them a similar water deal the Jordanians enjoy. Which would be Yuge.
Sadly as many have pointed out they are Muslim fundamentalists at core, and they would rather suffer with dignity.
Should note that Al-Jolani's name refers to, well, the Golan Heights. His parents were from there and fled after the Israelis took it over during the Six-Day War. With such a family history and the fact that he's still an Islamist it is very, very unlikely that he would consider making peace with Israel ever, even if he is intelligent enough to not immediately chimp out at them should he actually conquer Damascus & topple Assad; probably the best Israel can reasonably expect out of him is a chilly peace on the northern front for as long as he lives.
Bruh if rebels advance like a SU-25 Frogfoot bait but joking and laughing, you know you lost. Where is Assad Artillery to pound that fat soft target blob with GLONASS support?
Did SAA shit itself? What the FUCK happened?
All the competent people died a long time ago or went to Ukraine to die there. Leaving nothing but drug dealers behind.
Assad spent the last 5 years of relative peace doing nothing while everyone else was quietly preparing.
I know, Captagon and Meth from Syria is cheap like candy in seedier districts in Istanbul.
That's what I've heard too, that Assad got way too complacent after the last round of major battles died down in 2020 and decided to turn his government into a full-time drug cartel instead of actually rebuilding the recaptured territories & keeping the SAA ready for the next round, the result being that his forces progressively hollowed out entirely. Apparently a lot of troops from back then got demobilized too, and couldn't be re-mobilized in time (or simply would not report for duty when called up again) when the HTS pain train got going. For example, in Deir ez-Zor (held firmly by SAA since 2017, hasn't been under serious threat for many years)
after the SDF waltzed in just now, they found that many damaged/destroyed buildings were just never rebuilt in all the time since ISIS had been kicked out of there.
Meanwhile HTS & company have obviously leveled up significantly in the interim. Al-Jolani apparently put a serious effort into trying to purge the most insane durka-durkas in his ranks, create lasting civil governmental institutions & facilitate rebuilding (creating police, sanitation services, an electrical grid, etc.) as much as he could while stuck in Idlib, giving him some credibility re: the idea of raising up a functioning gov't and economy as he goes around elsewhere.
Apparently the Christian leaders of Mhardeh (west of Hama, including a rather uncomfortable-looking but unhurt priest) handed that town via negotiation rather than fight to the death as they surely would have against 2014 al-Nusra - I would guess a combination of HTS' PR campaign, the collapse of SAA formations and also the realization that Assad's continued rule wasn't actually improving anything (at best just keeping the town stagnant in the same conditions as before) persuaded them to take their chances with al-Jolani.
All in all, at the rate they're falling apart I think we can say the SAA is worse than the ANA. The Taliban needed to fight for three months before they started capturing provincial capitals and finally Kabul, meanwhile Aleppo fell after one day and Hama after like five, Homs is looking like it won't last the weekend, Daraa is in serious trouble and the east is already being split up between SDF/American-backed FSA/ISIS. (Does it not feel strange that this offensive is literally just a little over a week old to anybody?) There were no notable Christian, Druze, etc. communities in Afghanistan but if they were, imagine how (even more) staggeringly incompetent the gov't would have had to be that they'd end up being cool with bowing to the Taliban in the end instead of continuing to fight for said gov't (if only for survival's sake)...
In other news, the Druze rebels in Suwayda have been
gathering up SAA defectors, springing prisoners, trashing the local Ba'ath Party office and
capturing tanks. That may be pretty much it for that corner of southern Syria.
