2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

[Mound Dweller]

For example, in Deir ez-Zor (held firmly by SAA since 2017, hasn't been under serious threat for many years) after the SDF waltzed in just now, they found that many damaged/destroyed buildings were just never rebuilt in all the time since ISIS had been kicked out of there.

If only The Lion of Zor hadn't driven over that landmine none of this could have happened, he was of course Druze and therefore immune to the Ayrab bad-at-war curse.

Real OGs who can hold isolated cities against years long Stalingrad-tier sieges under kino conditions appear to be a thing of the past.

 

[2spoopy4u]

Assad is still winning.

kek
Please don't say it that way or people might think he's a child predator.

 

[Thomas Talus]

Sooner or later, everybody gotta go.

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

Israel will not allow rebels to seize Assad's strategic weapons and may consider assisting Kurds and Druze if they feel threatened, according to a source familiar with the matter. - Kan 11

 

[Shovelbird]

Maybe. But a thing to remember about the Refugee crisis is that while Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans were a plurality. The majority of Rapefugees were not Syrian or Iraq or Afghan. Especially not the ones that tried really hard to get into Europe.

I was mugged by Syrians back in 2014 losing everything and unable to support myself in Germany. They worked together with Moroccans, literal animals in human skin.

 

[Crex Crex]

Rebels from at-Tanf confirmed to have joined the party. They took an area south of Palmyra.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Meanwhile HTS & company have obviously leveled up significantly in the interim. Al-Jolani apparently put a serious effort into trying to purge the most insane durka-durkas in his ranks, create lasting civil governmental institutions & facilitate rebuilding (creating police, sanitation services, an electrical grid, etc.) as much as he could while stuck in Idlib, giving him some credibility re: the idea of raising up a functioning gov't and economy as he goes around elsewhere. Apparently the Christian leaders of Mhardeh (west of Hama, including a rather uncomfortable-looking but unhurt priest) handed that town via negotiation rather than fight to the death as they surely would have against 2014 al-Nusra - I would guess a combination of HTS' PR campaign, the collapse of SAA formations and also the realization that Assad's continued rule wasn't actually improving anything (at best just keeping the town stagnant in the same conditions as before) persuaded them to take their chances with al-Jolani.

Assad fully bought into his own hype, thinking that since Russia bailed them out last time, he didn't have to improve the weaknesses of the SAA, or worse thought the SAA could defend against a rebel offensive on their own even as it became obvious Russia's military was completely tied up in Ukraine for years. Say what you will about the HTS but at least they were capable of improving instead of decaying like the Assad's forces did.

At this point it's looking more and more likely that the best case scenario for Assad would be managing to hold onto the area around Damascus that's cut off from an SAA aligned Latakia and Tartus, not even in 2015 was that the case.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

In other news: Rebels' capture of Aleppo stirs Syrian homecoming hopes in Turkey | Archive
Erdogan, like the rest of Europe, fears any further conflict which could push another wave of refugees into his country. On the other hand, a stabilized Syria is needed for repatriating the millions of Syrians living within Turkey. Seems Erdogan will try arguing for a political solution again between the rebels and Assad.

Muslims persecute Muslims more so than anybody else.

This is definitely true. For example, take our resident Assadist, one Feline Supremacist. She is a single-mother, once divorced, living in a nice neighborhood somewhere in New York City. She's been engaged in an unrequited parasocial relationship with the Russian Federation ever since studying russian back in college. Simply wanting one's favored side to win owing to the usual personal or realpolitik considerations isn't enough for her. She's announced time and again in many ways she takes joy in watching men, whom she's never met, dying knee deep in muddy trenches. Of course, she herself runs no risk of harm regardless whether any foreign country wins or loses some war.

I have no clue why she's still single.

I'd hazard a guess that she's fat and unattractive, hence the "lol no man" situation she's in.

I'm guessing she sees dictators as a surrogate husband or similar

 

[2spoopy4u]

Taking with a big grain of salt obviously, but I did predict yesterday Assad would leave within 48 hours if SAA forces continued showing zero signs they actually want to fight the rebels.

To where though?
I think he might shit bricks if his forces were capitulating this rapidly, but then again - where to? He has no where to run to.

In that case we're heading for another Saddam situation.

 

[Ghostse]

This is where my autism steps in to remind you that you are wrong, and that while the Turks, much like the Arabs, were originally a bunch of violent nomad sandniggers before settling down, the Turks originated in Central Asia (possibly somewhere in the Altai region), and are quite distinct from the Arabs genetically, ethnically, culturally, and linguistically, which is why every single Arab group managed to temporarily put their differences aside (with English help, of course) in the interests of kicking the Ottomans out.
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The Turks proper are marginally less stupid than the others (although Erdogan is rectifying that situation quite handily) due to being partially Westernized, first by influence of the Byzantines lingering after the conquest, and later on following Kemal Ataturk's forcefully imposed reforms complete with adoption of a Latinized alphabet.

Turks and Arabs share a common origin in nomadic herders. Its technically more correct to say Arabs, Turks, and Persians share a common proto-dunecoon ancestor, but I shorten it to call any carpet pilot "Arab" because it really pisses off the Turks and Persians.

Also the Turk-Turks at this point are pretty much just Arabs. Though I'll admit that every now and then those wilely nomad genes reassert themselves and you get an Ataturk. And the Turkic people in Central Asian might as well be Arabs after the mongols carted off anyone educated and killed anyone with a spine... TWICE.

I hate to say this and knowing you'll call me roach, but, first, Turks were the guys that had the w*stoids shitting themselves around Vienna until the Kurwas came like Rohirrim with meth-laden pierogis. Westernmost Turks are a mutt species between Asiatic strain, we are le56% Anatolian, Islamized Greeks, Yörük (basically asian nomad OG Turks from 700's), Kurdish and Armenian mix added as well. You an literally never tell who a Turk is by appearance. Think "Scythians" and "Messagatae" from Roman era, each description varied wildly.

lol roach cope.

Also you forget that the Ottomans only got to the gates of Vienna because they had an alliance with the French and the Italians were otherwise engaged. Additionally, their army was almost entirely non-Ottoman.

 

[Chuckwagon]

If only The Lion of Zor hadn't driven over that landmine none of this could have happened, he was of course Druze and therefore immune to the Ayrab bad-at-war curse.
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Real OGs who can hold isolated cities against years long Stalingrad-tier sieges under kino conditions appear to be a thing of the past.

Look on the bright side, at least it means Zahreddine didn't live long enough to have to witness his hometown (Suwayda) falling into rebel hands.

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HTS has issued an official statement that they've taken the last town on the outskirts of Homs (Al-Mashrafah? It's on the road from Salamiyah and LiveUA's timeline reported that they were attacking it in spite of Russian airstrikes 30 mins ago as of this writing) and the final push to take the city itself is imminent, also making one last call for any SAA troops still inside to yield while they still can. Lots of earlier rebel movements around/into and gov't movements out of the city earlier today were tracked in this article: among other things, Homs' city center was found to be deserted, no sign of SAA presence there whatsoever. By the looks of it, I'd say chances are good that the place falls tonight or tomorrow.

According to journo & longtime rebel cheerleader Charles Lister, 70% of Daraa Governorate has already fallen to the rebels (or in the cases of the 'reconciled' ones, they just never actually left in the first place) with Daraa itself surrounded, the road to Damascus cut and all of the border crossings with Jordan in rebel hands. The southern rebels have newly captured the town of Izra near Daraa for the first time in this war and sprung the prisoners held there.

 

[Chuckwagon]

Double post I know, but the southern rebels just took Daraa. The SAA in the city were given a last chance to leave and took it, you can see them fleeing in vehicles or on foot in that video there; it seems Assad has given up any hope of hanging on to the far southern provinces and is pulling everyone he still has down there back to Damascus. This is genuinely a huge moment equivalent to the fall of Aleppo or Hama (and imminently it seems, Homs) - Daraa was the site of the first protests against Assad all the way back in 2011, before there was even a civil war, and like those other cities it held out through multiple rebel efforts to besiege it over the years.

The rebel Southern Front, thought to have been crippled and destroyed back in 2018, has evidently come roaring back to life and beat returning Homsi exiles like the Farouq Brigades to taking the provincial capital in their part of Syria. They have issued a short & sweet statement on what they've just done: 'Daraa is free.'

 

[IAmNotAlpharius]

Also you forget that the Ottomans only got to the gates of Vienna because they had an alliance with the French and the Italians were otherwise engaged. Additionally, their army was almost entirely non-Ottoman.

I’m amused how the ottomans had the same problems as the Byzantines but worse because of polygamy and harems.

Double post I know, but the southern rebels just took Daraa. The SAA in the city were given a last chance to leave and took it, you can see them fleeing in vehicles or on foot in that video there; it seems Assad has given up any hope of hanging on to the far southern provinces and is pulling everyone he still has down there back to Damascus. This is genuinely a huge moment equivalent to the fall of Aleppo or Hama (and imminently it seems, Homs) - Daraa was the site of the first protests against Assad all the way back in 2011, before there was even a civil war, and like those other cities it held out through multiple rebel efforts to besiege it over the years.

The rebel Southern Front, thought to have been crippled and destroyed back in 2018, has evidently come roaring back to life and beat returning Homsi exiles like the Farouq Brigades to taking the provincial capital in their part of Syria. They have issued a short & sweet statement on what they've just done: 'Daraa is free.'

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At this point if Assad hasn’t left the country, he’s not getting out.

Reading a few pages back that a vast majority of refugees from Syria were fleeing Assad, will we see a large number flee Syria if the current government falls? Perhaps the EU will get more muzzie on muzzie violence between those against and for Assad?

If the EU wasn’t fucked they’d send back all their Syrians now that Assad is done for.

 

[mindlessobserver]

you can see them fleeing in vehicles or on foot in that video there;

Its legitimately over. Damascus is going to be hit in two directions. Assad is going to have to flee soon. Either to Latakia for a last stand, or to a retirement farm in Siberia.

What a stunning turn of events. When this thread was first posted I legitimately thought it was ASSAD attacking, and it was the last stand of the Syrian rebels.

 

[Otis Mallebrok]

The majority of Rapefugees were not Syrian or Iraq or Afghan.

Mega incorrect.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

Israel will not allow rebels to seize Assad's strategic weapons and may consider assisting Kurds and Druze if they feel threatened, according to a source familiar with the matter. - Kan 11

Fuck I thought we were gonna expand our holdings in the Golan and get some more prime ski mountains.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

Turks and Arabs share a common origin in nomadic herders. Its technically more correct to say Arabs, Turks, and Persians share a common proto-dunecoon ancestor,

Wrong - they all were nomadic herders, but where did they dwell is a different story. Arabs are Semites, like ancient Jews, they come from Arabic Peninsula, Sinai and other Middle Eastern shitholes. Later they spread westward to Northern Africa. Persians are Indo European, which means nothing. other than they might be in-between eurocuck and pajeet. At least, they were before getting mixed with Arabs, Turks, whoever the fuck Xiongnu were and poojeets. also something something alexander the great.

T*rks are from Central Asia, some good thousands of kilometers from carpet pilots. Like Hungarians and spurdos, they migrated south west, got mixed with natives as they marched, now they are ultimate mutts. So they don' share common ancestor. One thing unites them - faith in sand god.

Assad is going to have to flee soon.

This is going to be interesting, where should he fuck off? Iran? Russia? What about UAE or Saudi Arabia, do they support him?

 

[555777555]

This is going to be interesting, where should he fuck off? Iran? Russia?

Russia most likely. Iranian regime will not last long.

What about UAE or Saudi Arabia, do they support him?

No.

 

[The best and greatest]

This is going to be interesting, where should he fuck off? Iran? Russia? What about UAE or Saudi Arabia, do they support him?

Realistically Russia, but that requires getting there. but to leave either by boat or plane he would no doubt require permission from someone along the way, potentially several someones, to pass through their territory without being nabbed. Maybe turkey will let him pass into the black sea or neighboring countries through their airspace?

 

[mindlessobserver]

This is going to be interesting, where should he fuck off? Iran? Russia? What about UAE or Saudi Arabia, do they support him?

Iran or Russia most likely. The Arab States absolutely loath him and if he went to the UAE they would probably save everyone the trouble and kill him themselves. As stated earlier, the friends Assad chose to make came attached with enemies, and the Gulf States/Saudi Arabia are no friends of Iran and its flunkies. The Saudi's themselves have been fighting a low level war with the Iranian backed Houthis in Yemen for years now.

I don't think he can even rally support in Latakia. The Allawis and the Christians will probably slit his throat too. He's led them to ruin. The Druze for their part are doing what they always do. Side with whoever wins and continue to herd goats. As it was in the beginning, so shall it be forever.