2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

[Wax]

Is there going to have to be a separate cope thread again for BRICSniggers where they can pretend like they're winning another war?

 

[not william stenchever]

Is there going to have to be a separate cope thread again for BRICSniggers where they can pretend like they're winning another war?

The way it's currently looking there won't be enough time to make it necessary.

 

[Mound Dweller]

Is there going to have to be a separate cope thread again for BRICSniggers where they can pretend like they're winning another war?

Nah gotta stay optimistic, it would be real fucking nice if we could set aside the blocisperg affiliations and just enjoy a comfy event with info from all corners digested over without descending into partisan gay shit.
I fucking h8 the ziggers so god damn much but to be fair it's no wonder they get so salty when reality itself dunks on them constantly.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

Brother, I just see sand niggers fighting in a sandpit.

I doubt they'll go after Isreal so soon after. They kinda have to establish order in their own country first, assuming they win. Not pissing off the JOOS with F-15 Strike Eagles will help accomplish this task. You can fuck goats and still put this together

Also siding with Israel means you get weapons, mossad aid, and use aid (by way of mossad). If you side against Israel, the golan grows, your leaders die in a massive airstrike and no one but blue haired lefties cry for your death. Oh remember, the third option....we do nothing where nothing changes. But I think they will move towards Israel as it's the largest, most productive state which borders Israel and doesn't hate them.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Probably is a strong word here because they'd have to be completely retarded to do so. They are currently sweeping it up in a way that benefits Israel and can probably call in some favors for having done so. If they succeed at conquering all of Syria then they will also need to consolidate their gains, and the multiple groups will have to either come to an accord or start fighting amongst themselves. There's always the outside possibility that they're so retarded as to go after Israel immediately but I doubt it.

The Israelis are also helping the rebels by shutting down any effort by Hezbollah to reinforce Syria. But this is just to speed the collapse of Assad, who made himself a lynch pin of Irans "Shia crescent" that allows Tehran to make its revolutionary goals of war on Israel a reality beyond simple rhetoric. There is honestly a narrow window for Syria and Israel to normalize relations here, but I doubt its going to be filled because at the end of the day Arabs will be Arabs and willingly accepting the loss of the Golan is not something that they will do, which will be a precondition of any normalization between Israel and Syria.

Cold peace will be the name of the game. But it will be one that serves all sides until it doesn't. Assads mistake was making himself a vehicle for allowing the October 7 attacks happen, and Hezbollah to rain fire and death across northern Israel. The Joos have run the math, and have concluded that Al Qaeda taking control of Syria results in fewer Shekels lost to Assad remaining in power.

I say this half jokingly though. This was hardly a "jewish plot". This has been the consequences of Iran and Russia picking fights they could not win, with Assad relying totally on feckless allies. But its the Middle East baby, and as a middle eastern country Israel will take advantage of a situation that presents itself.

 

[Gog & Magog]

they want Syria to become a smoking crater

There are apartments, neighborhoods, offices, mosques, factories, and even government buildings strewn across Syria still lying in ruins despite having been within firm government control for years—until last week. The regime itself has failed to rebuild or even clean up the mess. People have been waiting for years for their lives to return to normal. A normalcy which never returned for most. If Assad had focused on nationwide reconstruction then perhaps none of this would be happening right now.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Also siding with Israel means you get weapons, mossad aid, and use aid (by way of mossad). If you side against Israel, the golan grows, your leaders die in a massive airstrike and no one but blue haired lefties cry for your death. Oh remember, the third option....we do nothing where nothing changes. But I think they will move towards Israel as it's the largest, most productive state which borders Israel and doesn't hate them.

It will depend really how stable the resulting government is in the event of a victory tbh. Which may be difficult considering how many tiny factions are caught up in this mess. It could just dissolve into another civil war again tbh once Assad gets the noose and nobody has a reason to stick together anymore. We'll see

 

[mindlessobserver]

It will depend really how stable the resulting government is in the event of a victory tbh. Which may be difficult considering how many tiny factions are caught up in this mess. It could just dissolve into another civil war again tbh once Assad gets the noose and nobody has a reason to stick together anymore. We'll see

Al-Jolani say's all the right things to CNN. Assuming he will make nice to Israel is fantasy at this point. The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy definitely applies in this situation.

The Middle East laughs in the face of Utilitarianism. At the end of the day everyone involved in its conflicts would rather die then work together.

 

[whatever I feel like]

It will depend really how stable the resulting government is in the event of a victory tbh. Which may be difficult considering how many tiny factions are caught up in this mess. It could just dissolve into another civil war again tbh once Assad gets the noose and nobody has a reason to stick together anymore. We'll see

They could hang that long neck of his and he'd just hit the ground and stand back up.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Al-Jolani say's all the right things to CNN. Assuming he will make nice to Israel is fantasy at this point. The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy definitely applies in this situation.

The Middle East laughs in the face of Utilitarianism. At the end of the day everyone involved in its conflicts would rather die then work together.

They are goat herders at the end of the day. I don't expect much long term thinking beyond "kill assad". The JOOS still killed one of their goats 2000 years ago, and they CANT forget that slight.

 

[Rekieta’s Broken Penis]

Was it ever this bad for Assad before? Livemap looks pretty grim for him.

 

[Maori Kiwifruit Growers]

It will depend really how stable the resulting government is in the event of a victory tbh. Which may be difficult considering how many tiny factions are caught up in this mess. It could just dissolve into another civil war again tbh once Assad gets the noose and nobody has a reason to stick together anymore. We'll see

So Syria will just turn into Somolia 2.0?

There really is something to say when Israel was the only one actually to make it work. They won their war and then after a slight issue unifying (Altalena Affair), everyone cooled their jets and the different groups all joined the IDF and became political parties. I fear the Arabs don't have the cool head that Menachem Begin had. They're egos won't allow for it.

​

 

[WelperHelper99]

So Syria will just turn into Somolia 2.0?

Yeah pretty much lol, unless they are extremely lucky.

There really is something to say when Israel was the only one actually to make it work. They won their war and then after a slight issue unifying (Altalena Affair), everyone cooled their jets and the different groups all joined the IDF and became political parties. I fear the Arabs don't have the cool head that Menachem Begin had. They're egos won't allow for it.

I mean it helps the general population of Isreal has a IQ above room temperature and generally doesn't marry their cousins. The middle east in general is basically Alabama, but brown, and without any of the southern charm. So clinically retarded

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

The enemy of my enemy is still my enemy definitely applies in this situation.

The enemy of my enemy may not be my friend, but he's better than the friend of my enemy. Having an anti-Iran neighbor that dislikes Jews is better than having a pro-Iran neighbor that dislikes Jews, from a geopolitical standpoint. Hell, the Sunnis may actually hate the Shiites more than they do Jews, especially after everything that has been done to Syria's Sunnis by the Assad regime with Iran and Hezbollah's backing. At the very least, the "rebels" impede Iranian support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is a good thing for Israeli stability.

Will al-Julani view the Israel situation pragmatically if he gets into power? Who knows. But he's probably better than Assad, so no doubt the Israelis are going to look at the situation optimistically.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Was it ever this bad for Assad before? Livemap looks pretty grim for him.

It was like this back in 2015 and this was about the worst for him before this.

Considering the east is basically just a desert, and he still had control of Hama, you could make the argument right now is the worst it has ever been for him, and that's without getting into how the present SAA is just a paper army and a Russian intervention isn't going to happen like it did 9 years ago.

 

[Chuckwagon]

It will depend really how stable the resulting government is in the event of a victory tbh. Which may be difficult considering how many tiny factions are caught up in this mess. It could just dissolve into another civil war again tbh once Assad gets the noose and nobody has a reason to stick together anymore. We'll see

Rebel fragmentation is much less of a problem now than it was before ~2020. One of the reasons HTS has made so much headway so quickly is that as part of their establishing rule in Idlib, they've pretty much totally consolidated the non-ISIS Islamists and in general rebel groups in the north of their country under their control. Al-Jolani has buckbroken everyone near him from bandits playing at being soldiers like Jamal Maarouf's SRF to actually moderate & competent Western-backed factions like Harakat Hazzm (RIP my niggas, some of the nicest rebel dudes in Syria) to fellow 'moderate' headchoppers like Ahrar al-Sham or Nour al-Din Zenki Movement (the guys who infamously beheaded a kid on camera and got Trump to axe Timber Sycamore) to fellow Al-Qaeda who couldn't pretend to not be savages for two seconds (Hurras al-Din) to literally ISIS. When most rebels got kicked out to Idlib via green bus convoys, he took the opportunity to force them all to bow to him or die in his corner of the country, and that's how HTS has come to lead the main rebel coalition with an iron fist. Wikipedo does a decent job of summarizing how Al-Jolani has made almost every other rebel faction in northern Syria bend the knee or put them in the grave.

As for the non-HTS rebels, they're also pretty consolidated compared to the chaos of the early war years. Either they're all bunched up under Turkey's umbrella and can't do shit without Sultan Erdogan's beneficent hand puppeteering them (SNA), they're Kurds with American backing and thus ethnically distinct from the rest (SDF), they're literally 500 strong and wouldn't exist without American backing (the 'Revolutionary Commando Army' on the SE border) or they're all that's left of the original Free Syrian Army/actual moderate rebels and bunched up like 10 years ago (Southern Front, reports of their demise in 2018 have just been shown to be greatly exaggerated). Some of them do have mutually exclusive objectives, ex. Kurds want an autonomous zone in the northeast and the SNA exists primarily to kill Kurds for the Sultan at this point, but my point is that instead of literally dozens of tiny factions constantly feuding with each other like in 2013, we're down to basically 4-ish large rebel groupings now. If shit goes further sideways and Syria descends into a civil war 2.0 right after this one, we can expect a much faster & less fractious conflict than Libya.

I don't think any one of the others could beat a victorious HTS head-on, but other than the American backed dudes in the desert they can all make Al-Jolani's life difficult if he doesn't give them a seat at his table. It's in his interest to do so and avoid going full retard, something which he has shown some ability to do evidenced by his surprisingly non-durkadurka treatment of the Christians & Ismaili Shiites he's encountered so far. It is similarly in his interest to not immediately try to attack Israel and given how he's gotten this far already by not being a retard, we can reasonably guess that he won't do that; the Southern Front who are closest to Israel have also scrupulously avoided causing trouble for them or Jordan this whole time and won't support any move that could get them Hezbollah'd so soon after they came back from the dead to cave in Assad's southern flank & achieve their biggest battlefield successes in 10 years.

I don't like saying anything nice about AQ emirs but there's no denying that Al-Jolani has been one crafty bastard who's played his cards well (even when holding a losing hand, ex. in 2018-20), that it would be foolish to underestimate him or expect him to make the same mistakes as the other jihadis (almost all of whom are now either dead, some by his hand, or reduced to his thralls), and that he seems to have come from behind to outplay Assad in this maybe-final round of hostilities. If he doesn't get bombed by Russia or whoever in the next month he'll probably actually come out on top of this clusterfuck, and if he gets that far there is a non-zero chance that he won't totally fuck up handling the aftermath of the war.

(As someone who is neither a Syrian nor a Mohammedan I don't have any stake in any of this, I've just found this conflict interesting as fuck to watch between 2012 to 2017-ish. Same timeframe that I was also hooked to the Libyan civil war & the first round of the Russo-Ukrainian war, neither of which I especially have a stake in either. I can't say I've ever been a big fan of anybody involved but I will consneed that I have a soft spot for the relative non-assholes like the aforementioned Harakat Hazzm or the less brutal SAA generals, and I think it blows when they get destroyed by bigger assholes around them as HH was by Jabhat al-Nusra, which was what HTS used to be called back then.)

Anyway, background infodump over, on to some news: longtime pro-rebel accounts have been saying that the final assault on Homs is now underway and that HTS is committing its elite units to spearhead this attack, but also that Hezbollah is sending remnants of its own elite Redwan Force to assist the SAA. No footage/photos right now and HTS at least has learned to practice opsec after many years, we'll probably have a better idea of who's winning in the morning.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Al-Jolani has buckbroken everyone near him from bandits playing at being soldiers like Jamal Maarouf's SRF to actually moderate & competent Western-backed factions like Harakat Hazzm (RIP my niggas, some of the nicest rebel dudes in Syria) to fellow 'moderate' headchoppers like Ahrar al-Sham or Nour al-Din Zenki Movement (the guys who infamously beheaded a kid on camera and got Trump to axe Timber Sycamore) to fellow Al-Qaeda who couldn't pretend to not be savages for two seconds (Hurras al-Din) to literally ISIS.

I honestly think its bigger then that. Al-Jolani has unified the rebel factions over the years by purging them of the Durka Durkas. He did this despite going to Iraq to fight for Al Qaeda against the Americans during the Second Gulf War. He consolidated power and opposed ISIS even as their rampage across the levant brought ruin to the people. In fact, he broke with them at the same time as they charged into the Mosul museum and destroyed the history of the Levantine people.

And since then, Jolani was put in a pocket, beset on all sides by great powers. The Americans put a 10 million dollar bounty on his head, the Russians bombed him like he was a Ukrainian city 3 kilometers from liberated Donbass territory. Yet despite this he persevered. He built up his army, he brought stability to the people under his rule and insisted on the need to build rather then destroy. He was subjected to the Tribulation of Heaven. And Heaven has rendered its verdict. Syria bows before the King who holds the Mandate of Heaven. Tremble before his majesty.

 

[Bloodthirsty Nosenigger]

Yet despite this he persevered. He built up his army, he brought stability to the people under his rule and insisted on the need to build rather then destroy. He was subjected to the Tribulation of Heaven. And Heaven has rendered its verdict. Syria bows before the King who holds the Mandate of Heaven. Tremble before his majesty.

Jesus, you're worse than our resident shekelsniffers here....just fly to Idlib already if you so desperately want to suck him off.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I want to know where the sweet sweet copium about Elite Tiger Forces and Paratroopers breaking through the lines and culdrooning the rebel offensive went?

Come on guys, I wanna hear some shit about how Bashar is gonna ride into battle on the T-14s and oust the CIA-Mossad-MIT-SBU transgender nazi jihadis from Greater Aryan Syria!

 

[mindlessobserver]

Jesus, you're worse than our resident shekelsniffers here....just fly to Idlib already if you so desperately want to suck him off.

I have, explained myself at great length. I have no desire to suck anyone off. I am just here to witness the turning of history.