2024 Syrian opposition offensives - The first Syrian rebel offensive against Government forces since March 2020

[mindlessobserver]

It's looking like Assad is getting his shit pushed in and the people taking him to pound town are at the moment acting immensely better than the rebel groups were in the earlier stages of the civil war. I am going to be cautiously optimistic that they'll continue to not be shitheads but if they turn shitheads in victory than mea culpa for having a false hope.

Al-Jolani's CV is very interesting as I am reading into it. Got his start with the Sunni Insurgency against the American occupation of Iraq. Rises through the ranks, ends up in charge of a significant part of the Syrian faction, sides with ISIS initially, and then ultimately breaks with both ISIS and Al Qaeda.

That I think is the most interesting event. It speaks to a fundamental disagreement over doctrine and possibly even morals. This split also happened years ago, and during a period when it was pretty much guaranteed Assad, Russia and Iran were going to win the civil war. Not exactly the time you would want to break up with allies in a war. But he did it anyway.

This is a man who has had his youthful idealism, religion and conceptual understanding of the world challenged by war. The ultimate crucible. And his conclusion as he states it is that Syria must build institutions and show mercy to the defeated. I will mea culpa too for having false hope, but I got it nonetheless. Lets also not forget that plenty of dreamers have been knifed in the back by radicals.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

What are the odds either the Iraqis or the Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militias cross the border into Syria in mass? They have ample reason to support Assad and prevent the approach of Sunni insurgents.

The Iraqis, virtually zero at this point in any meaningful number. They will probably just push troops to the border to stop ISIS spill-over and/or Kurds getting uppity and redrawing maps again; but its unlikely they go into Syria.

The Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militias *wink wink* *nod nod* reportedly already tried, then got airstriked by "coalition" (who the fuck else uses A-10s?) and lost positions to the SDF.

They could attempt to punch through the Kurds at Dor ez Zier again, but they still have no meaningful guarantee that even if they did manage to push through that they'd make it far enough fast enough and in decent fighting shape through the Mad Max situation of central Syria in time to make a difference in Assad's battle for control in the mid-west of the county.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Hezbollah is in no situation to help either. They tried to rally what they had left and Israel promptly bombed the shit out of them. Its over for Assad. No help is coming unless Russia and Iran commit massive forces to break the blockade. That they don't have. Because they blew their military power in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine.

Assad is going down.

 

[Mound Dweller]

Multiple sultans lamented how absolutely dogshit Arabs and Ottoman-turks were at combat.

Efendi I despise the roach as much as any good Christian boy but credit where credit is due they wouldn't have overrun half the continent if they weren't any good at ghazi ghazi durka jihad. battles of Varna/Nicopolis come to mind, as does the OG Kosovo and original capture of Bursa, these were all well before the multi culti imperium shit started too so you can't stick it down to European fighting spirit either.
They became shit overtime of course but that's unrionically a cultural issue that they overcame in time to kick the gayreeks out of Ionia/the frogs out of Cilicia/the Armenians to nowhere because it never happened. The modern institution suffers from sultan erdomelon's pisslamic inference of course but the core warrior spirit of the Altai is real.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

Ever since the last time Turkey tried to poke Israel with a stick and got absolutely nothing out of it in 2010, Erdogan has assiduously avoided situations where he would get humiliated by the Joos again. He doesn't want his shiny HTS proxy army to get chewed up and spit out by the IOF like it has chewed up and spit out Hamas/PIJ and Hezbollah. Erdo needs HTS to help him deal with the Kurds, not get wasted by relentless Joo bombing campaigns. The Mossad has been helping him build up the groups operating under the HTS umbrella for years, the Joos have all the deets on Jolani and the rest of em. What they don't have is any problem with using those deets to slaughter HTS if necessary

HTS is not a Turkish invention z that's the SNA.

HTS is 80-95% local Syrians.

Its not over until its over. Damascus could hold out for months or fall in ten days depending on what their soldiers are willing to die for and how good they can manage supplies through Lebanon.

..... Supplies form Lebanon? What, worthless currency and Hezzbollah fighters missing hands?

Lebanon is almost as much of a basket case as Syria is.

 

[draggs]

HTS is not a Turkish invention z that's the SNA.

HTS is 80-95% local Syrians.

HTS didn't get their arsenal from a landfill, they got it from Shlomo's Discount Military Hardware Ankara branch

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Live Map is reporting a Syrian "Special Forces" unit surrendered.
Source is something in Arabic or Farsi so I can't verify it but lol if true:

If Assad's alleged special forces are just giving up that easily then the situation is worse than I'd imagined

 

[mindlessobserver]

If Assad's alleged special forces are just giving up that easily then the situation is worse than I'd imagined

defeat is as much a state of mind as it is a reality. An Army that believes its going to lose will flee or surrender. This is a hard to quantify fact in the military "science", but its very much observable in superior forces routing before inferior ones simply because the man on the spot and their officers believe the day is lost.

The SAA is a defeated Army that is not fighting for a cause any of them believe in. It doesn't matter how many tanks and artillery pieces they have if the men wielding them have no faith in what they are fighting for or its victory. When Hom's falls, and that is not a "if" at this point, it will all be over. The SAA will cease to exist.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

defeat is as much a state of mind as it is a reality. An Army that believes its going to lose will flee or surrender. This is a hard to quantify fact in the military "science", but its very much observable in superior forces routing before inferior ones simply because the man on the spot and their officers believe the day is lost.

That's kind of my point.
Sitting at a computer from afar, its easy to fall into the trap of thinking you can understand the pace things are moving on the ground (especially after watching Russia march at a snails pace for the last 2.5 years).
As such I've also been waiting for the inevitable slow down, the part when something changes, the part when the rebels bite off more than they can chew, etc.; thinking along the lines "It's not over until its over" or "well I'll cautiously wait and see".

However, I'd be stupid to think I know more about the winnable/unwinnable situation in Syria more so than Syrian special forces.
IF true (again if) alleged "special forces" are basically saying "shit's hopeless", then maybe shit might indeed be hopeless for the SAA...

 

[mindlessobserver]

This thread started on November 27. I think if the first post was "2 weeks to Damascus" it would have been showered by Lunacy and Dumbs.

Yet that is actually what is unfolding. It speaks to a larger problem. Legitimacy. The Assad dynasty has always had a legitimacy problem, all the way back to the 80's when daddy Hafez slaughtered Hama to preserve his minority coalition rulership over the State. His son fared little better, and had to whore the State out to foreign powers to preserve his rule. This is something I am sure every Syrian was acutely aware of. But was unwilling to do anything about so long as the inevitability of the Regimes power remained inviolate.

It was a house built on a foundation of Sand.

 

[wtfNeedSignUp]

This thread started on November 27. I think if the first post was "2 weeks to Damascus" it would have been showered by Lunacy and Dumbs.

Yet that is actually what is unfolding. It speaks to a larger problem. Legitimacy. The Assad dynasty has always had a legitimacy problem, all the way back to the 80's when daddy Hafez slaughtered Hama to preserve his minority coalition rulership over the State. His son fared little better, and had to whore the State out to foreign powers to preserve his rule. This is something I am sure every Syrian was acutely aware of. But was unwilling to do anything about so long as the inevitability of the Regimes power remained inviolate.

It was a house built on a foundation of Sand.

I'll throw a theory that the initial defeat was so bad, a lot of generals straight up abandoned ship since it's either dying for the rebels or dying by Assad punishing them for their failure. Besides that they probably had preconceptions that Iranian, Russian and Hezballah would be way better than they actually were. The Iranians seem to never arrive, Russia just kills everyone indiscriminately and Hezballah is pretty much a non entity for anything more than garrison duty.

 

[draggs]

The foreign ministers of Syria, Iraq, and Iran will meet tomorrow in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq, to hold an urgent discussion regarding Syria. Joint military intervention incoming.

https://x.com/WarMonitors/status/1865090007238651989

Iraqi government spokesperson: Iraq does not seek military intervention in Syria — Reuters

The reverse Midas touch cannot be stopped

 

[whatever I feel like]

HTS is not a Turkish invention z that's the SNA.

HTS is 80-95% local Syrians.

..... Supplies form Lebanon? What, worthless currency and Hezzbollah fighters missing hands?

Lebanon is almost as much of a basket case as Syria is.

No, food. We're talking seige warfare here.

 

[Azure05]

I don't want to start another slapfight but you people seem to ignore the fact that the ""rebels"" will probably attack Israel after they are done with Assad.

 

[draggs]

I don't want to start another slapfight but you people seem to ignore the fact that the ""rebels"" will probably attack Israel after they are done with Assad.

Why would they want to enjoy their victory over Assad by getting Hezbollah'd by the IOF

 

[All Smiles]

I love everyone in this thread pretending to care about the Syrian people, all that virtue signaling about the "oppressed syrian peoples" will go away when Syria is reduced to Libya 2.0 with open sex slave markets and less than third world conditions. Just be honest you don't care about Syrians you just hate Assad. I also can't wait for everyone cheering on the "moderate rebels" to start crying when there's a rise in extreme jihadism in the region as well as an influx of terrorism and rapefugee incidents in europe when the next migrant waves start as a result of this.

The reality is you just want some material to jerk yourself off to of assad getting assraped by bayonettes like Gaddafi did.

Please don't cry when this:
View attachment 6723400

Is inevitably replaced by something like this when this is all over and stabilized:
View attachment 6723404

Your logic is wasted here.

Thread is full of ziomutts that are completely dishonest about why they want Syria to become a smoking crater, and morons who are either treating this like sportsball, or have fallen for the most laughably lazy propaganda in decades.

Personally don't care about Syria. It's full of sandniggers. That said Assad is a bitch that hasn't has his ticket called for far too long. The bastard gasses his own people. If the people in Syria want to change that, and it seems so, who cares?

#1 golem award

 

[not william stenchever]

I don't want to start another slapfight but you people seem to ignore the fact that the ""rebels"" will probably attack Israel after they are done with Assad.

Probably is a strong word here because they'd have to be completely retarded to do so. They are currently sweeping it up in a way that benefits Israel and can probably call in some favors for having done so. If they succeed at conquering all of Syria then they will also need to consolidate their gains, and the multiple groups will have to either come to an accord or start fighting amongst themselves. There's always the outside possibility that they're so retarded as to go after Israel immediately but I doubt it.

 

[Clyde Cash's Left Teste]

The Taliban claimed they wouldn't do all sorts of things if they retook Afghanistan, like preventing women from doing any education, and then proceeded to do said things shortly after taking over.

Well that's because the Taliban are a bunch of faggots

Druze and Arabs have pretty much taken over Suwayda, freed the mostly political prisoners at the big prison there

By next Friday there is somehow a real chance that Assad will control nothing but a rump state around Damascus and the Tartus-Latakia coastal governates

Amazing how much can happen in a span of a week.

Assad fully bought into his own hype, thinking that since Russia bailed them out last time

There is a moral to this story, if your country needs other countries to defend itself then thats a big problem in long run.

Iranian regime will not last long

I give it year but knowing how everything is going it will be six months.

I don't want to start another slapfight but you people seem to ignore the fact that the ""rebels"" will probably attack Israel after they are done with Assad.

But what else is Israel going to do with their leftover pagers?

 

[Mound Dweller]

There's always the outside possibility that they're so retarded as to go after Israel immediately but I doubt it.

Considering how bibi personally had those Hezbollah border crossings bombed I think it's safe to assume this batch of rebels are kosher approved.
As for the aftermath, my prognostication is it will be spicey, not as spicey Libya though purely because the Syrians have had 10+ years to sort themselves along various factional lines and there's a clean divide between Kurd/SDF federalists and the ""moderate"" islamists instead of the post-Gaddaffi flavoured total thunderdome.
It will be a mess but it could be a clean mess, especially if the current regime keeps going down a brick in a swimming pool.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Your logic is wasted here.

Thread is full of ziomutts that are completely dishonest about why they want Syria to become a smoking crater, and morons who are either treating this like sportsball, or have fallen for the most laughably lazy propaganda in decades.


#1 golem award

Brother, I just see sand niggers fighting in a sandpit.

Probably is a strong word here because they'd have to be completely retarded to do so. They are currently sweeping it up in a way that benefits Israel and can probably call in some favors for having done so. If they succeed at conquering all of Syria then they will also need to consolidate their gains, and the multiple groups will have to either come to an accord or start fighting amongst themselves. There's always the outside possibility that they're so retarded as to go after Israel immediately but I doubt it.

I doubt they'll go after Isreal so soon after. They kinda have to establish order in their own country first, assuming they win. Not pissing off the JOOS with F-15 Strike Eagles will help accomplish this task. You can fuck goats and still put this together