Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[BradeRunna]

I don't get it. These guys shot down a fucking spy plane back in Cold War. WHAT MADE THEM TURN INTO NIGGERS?

What magic powers died?

Communism corruption brain drain vodka.

 

[Shovelbird]

Seems like Russia will be keeping their bases, I reckon Turkey made sure they'd be fine.
View attachment 6730600

paid in Natural Gas, I bet.

 

[The best and greatest]

Seems like Russia will be keeping their bases, I reckon Turkey made sure they'd be fine.
View attachment 6730600

Makes sense to me. I thought it would be too early to say for sure those bases would be closing and that there would probably be some kind of deal worked out with the new regime to keep them there at least for a little while.

If I had to guess the new syrian government will want some kind of recompense for those bases and see them as bargaining chips they can use to extort favors from the Russians

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

The Nork gooners were funny-we can make jokes about them choking the chicken to porn all day. Syria falling is scary, especially for the Russian side. It's a true sign that their empire is falling apart. We're going to look back on this the same way historians looked at Rome getting sacked in 410 AD; the beginning of the end for an empire that once held sway over a large part of the world.

It's already mostly fallen apart. The loss of the Warsaw Pact and the UkrSSR and the Baltic SSRs, crippled Russia's technological base as most of the highly advanced industries and specialists were located in those parts of the country. It also cut off Kaliningrad from Russia proper and dissolved its sphere of influence in Europe other than a few inconsequential assets like Belarus.

If there's any parallel to Rome this was Russia's 410 AD moment, very few people in 1985 expected in five years the Soviet experiment would be over. The level of domestic catastrophe that followed is one of the worst in history outside of a major war or plague.

That's like, what if America lost Japan or South Korea to CCP-sympathetic forces. That would rock the political landscape for years.

Syria was valuable but not to the degree of a Japan or South Korea to the US. Losing its influence in Iran or the Central Asian countries that were part of the Soviet Union/Russian Empire would be more like Japan or SK.

 

[Ghostse]

Legitimate question, that covers NATO Lake the Baltic Sea and Turkey's Tollbridge the Black Sea, but Russia and Iran share maritime borders over the Caspian Sea. Do they not have much shipping established in the Caspian?

I know the top third of the Caspian is relatively shallow (and thus unfavorable for shipping) and there's a big mountain range separating Tehran from it, but I always assumed that the Caspian was the highway for Iranian drones to enter Russian hands.

They do a fair bit of this for things they don't mind being on the books, but you need to rethink this in terms of gay "I'm not touching you" fuck fuck geopolitics games. IF they do an exchange directly on their own territories, or in international waters, there is a no hope of deniability (and chance of someone doing something about it). If you involve a 3rd party you can say "Oh geez wow I have no idea how those export-banned items got into the cargo that went to Iran! Obviously this was to go to our troops in Africa but I guess those incompetent syrians made a oopsie and loaded the wrong cargo on the wrong plane!"

It's vatnigger cope because there are stories that Ukraine special forces are screwing around in Syria. I don't know if it's true or not. But I do find it odd that a country that is supposedly being defeated badly and running out of men for the war are sending their most elite special forces soldiers off to another country to get involved in something that doesn't impact the war in their homeland in a huge way.

tl;dr: I'm not sure about Syria, but in Africa they are likley there at the request of France. So take one of your special forces platoons out of the game temporarily, get a bunch of ammo and CESAERs.
edit: actually thinking on it, it might be a quid-pro-quo with Turkey. Expect the Russian import situation to get even more spicy.

Seems like Russia will be keeping their bases, I reckon Turkey made sure they'd be fine.
View attachment 6730600

It will be curious to see if they keep them after; what this means right now is that the Rebels are stating they have no plans to enter Russia state territory therefore Russia has no legitimate casus belli to hit any Rebel forces. This would still leave the door open to expelling them later; I'm really not sure how butthurt the current powers are about Russian support for Assad.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Seems like Russia will be keeping their bases, I reckon Turkey made sure they'd be fine.

All they said so far is that they're not going to attack them.
Remember the context: The rebels have de facto been at war with Russia for a long time and killed Russian soldiers during their offensive.

 

[The Morning Visitor]

They do a fair bit of this for things they don't mind being on the books, but you need to rethink this in terms of gay "I'm not touching you" fuck fuck geopolitics games. IF they do an exchange directly on their own territories, or in international waters, there is a no hope of deniability (and chance of someone doing something about it). If you involve a 3rd party you can say "Oh geez wow I have no idea how those export-banned items got into the cargo that went to Iran! Obviously this was to go to our troops in Africa but I guess those incompetent syrians made a oopsie and loaded the wrong cargo on the wrong plane!"

Who exactly monitors the Caspian? The two biggest powers touching it are Russia and Iran, Kazakhstan a distant third due to their size and false notoriety from Borat. Azerbaijan is opposed to Armenia (which is backed by Russia) but they're a developing country, along with Turkmenistan. I'd call them third world but I know Turkmenistan was part of the USSR and I think Azerbaijan was as well.

There's no way either Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan could police the shipments in the Caspian between a nuclear power and a middle power that's 80% of the way to nuclear (really, the heir of the Persian Empire). If we're expected to trust Five Eyes satellite imaging, there's multiple ways to conceal the contents of a cargo ship between two consenting parties.

 

[World in Scarlet]

There's no way either Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan could police the shipments in the Caspian between a nuclear power and a middle power that's 80% of the way to nuclear

This is regulated in the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea. If I understand that correctly, the centre of the sea is a free zone where everyone can ship unmolested, so no party can prohibit any other party form access to anyone (lawfully anyway).

 

[Ghostse]

Who exactly monitors the Caspian? The two biggest powers touching it are Russia and Iran, Kazakhstan a distant third due to their size and false notoriety from Borat. Azerbaijan is opposed to Armenia (which is backed by Russia) but they're a developing country, along with Turkmenistan. I'd call them third world but I know Turkmenistan was part of the USSR and I think Azerbaijan was as well.

There's no way either Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan could police the shipments in the Caspian between a nuclear power and a middle power that's 80% of the way to nuclear (really, the heir of the Persian Empire). If we're expected to trust Five Eyes satellite imaging, there's multiple ways to conceal the contents of a cargo ship between two consenting parties.

All you need is one retarded sailor to get approached by the CIA and now you have manifests, times, dates, photos, etc. And now the entire world has an excuse to fuck with your shipping because it was your ship, carrying your cargo, with your crew, leaving your port.

Even if you have "multipolar" simps, they are likely to use it as an excuse to raise tolls/tariffs/fees on Russian shipping because "Oh man you see the international insurance adjusters are totally losing their shit and so we need you pay us 12% more because we're just passing on the costs bro"

 

[The Morning Visitor]

And now the entire world has an excuse to fuck with your shipping because it was your ship, carrying your cargo, with your crew, leaving your port.

We're relying on one drunken malcontent? One nation out of five ratting out the entire nations of Russia and Iran doing clandestine arms deals?

"multipolar" simps, they are likely to use it as an excuse to raise tolls/tariffs/fees on Russian shipping because "Oh man you see the international insurance adjusters are totally losing their shit and so we need you pay us 12% more because we're just passing on the costs bro"

It does not matter if the signatory nations are less powerful than Russia. I am willing to trust the word of a nation that can deal equal or greater damage back when push-comes-to-shove.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

@Ghostse Africa is of much financial importance to everyone involved as there's gold in them thar hills in addition to other precious metals, and rare earth minerals. Fucking with Putin's African piggy bank is more than plenty of reason for Ukraine to send some of their special forces over there.

 

[Ghostse]

We're relying on one drunken malcontent? One nation out of five ratting out the entire nations of Russia and Iran doing clandestine arms deals?

It does not matter if the signatory nations are less powerful than Russia. I am willing to trust the word of a nation that can deal equal or greater damage back when push-comes-to-shove.

Again, you have deals done in Syria you get to play "I'm not touching you" games; "syria, your honor! They are a the naughty no-good-niks who did this! We will begin immediate investigations into how they could have corrupted and hoodwinked our honest Russian businessmen through the confusing paperwork of international trade!"

edit: Also using third parties allows you do things like
"Well I was just hired to move these sealed boxed from this port to this port. I had no idea what the crates labeled 'explosives: Artillery shells' contained inside."

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

@Ghostse Africa is of much financial importance to everyone involved as there's gold in them thar hills in addition to other precious metals, and rare earth minerals. Fucking with Putin's African piggy bank is more than plenty of reason for Ukraine to send some of their special forces over there.

Nigeria's going to become interesting in the near future. People forget they've got a larger population than Brazil.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Syria falling is indeed a sign that Russia's resources are being stretched to the limit.

I think this would be a great time to topple the Venezuela regime for the same reason. The strings to Russia's puppets have been severed.

Plantain Bus Driver would just start guzzling DC's cock.
Maduro is truly the Dark Side Phil of international geopol.

View attachment 6728016
I am legitimately unsure what to make of something this delusional. Weird attempt at cope by claiming what's going on in Syria is Ukraine's doing, I suppose.

Ziggers: "Russia is winning! Ukraine is gonna fall ANY DAY NOW!!!"
Also Ziggers: "Ukraine just toppled Assad and now they are going to topple Iran before going nuclear!!!"

Syria falling was largely Russias fault any way, considering they colluded with the Turks to cuck Assad into giving up on trying to take Idlib, which in turn turned the region into a big bleeding wound that slowly drained the regime of life.

It seems like literally anyone who allies with Russia inevitably gets cucked to death by them.

The problem with this is that the Assad regime didn't have it in them to take Idlib.
Look up the Battle of Kabani (NOT Kobani) for more detail and a funny little preview to Vuhledar.

Most of the offensive potential was carried by Russia and Hezbollah, and Russia making a deal with Turkey was basically Russia saying that they wouldn't take the city for the SAA.

 

[msd]

I contribute nothing else today besides a meme

 

[ShittlerNiggler]

I contribute nothing else today besides a meme
View attachment 6732536

only one of them fought against an enemy that actually shot back

 

[Ghostse]

To head off Eurofag Malding, and to give folks a quick class in information literacy I present you the article with an intentionally poor headline:

"Trump calls for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and says a US withdrawal from NATO is possible"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/trump-calls-for-immediate-ceasefire-in-ukraine-after-meeting-zelenskyy-in-paris/ar-AA1vtEXB?ocid=TobArticle

This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.

Now this is the AP, not the most frothing of the TDS-infested MSM sources. but just from the headline
"OMG, Trump wants a cease fire in Ukraine (which Russia will ignore) and is willing to withdraw from NATO to get it if Putin makes it a condition!"

If you read the article, there two separate stories rammed into one:
First is a targeted retelling of part of an interview with Trump. The the other is about Trump making a post on TrumpTwitter calling on Putin to make a ceasefire happen.

The TrumpTwitter tweet has all the usual political non-statement necessaries
- Trump has made usual platitudes about stop killing each other.
- He is prompting Russia, not Ukraine, to declare a ceasefire. That putting the impetuous on Putin to start negotiations and give concessions. I think this is a mistake, the last thing that should be done is a ceasefire when Russia is bleeding this bad. But not a unreasonable position for a politician to take
- Adds in some praise of Putin to add some carrot.
- name drops China to point to Chinese half-hearted attempts to resolve the conflict to say "Well if you don't want to talk with the US, then go through China. You have no fucking excuse for this death and destruction to keep happening."
- Kremlin responded with "lol Ukraine can just surrender sovereignty at anytime, western pigdog"

So that is Trump "calling for an immediate ceasefire"


For the "withdraw from NATO", In an interview completley unrelated to said TrumpTweet the following exchange occurred

Asked whether he would consider the possibility of pulling out of NATO, Trump indicated that was an open question.

“If they’re paying their bills, and if I think they’re treating us fairly, the answer is absolutely I’d stay with NATO,” he said.

But if not, he was asked if he would consider pulling the U.S. out of the alliance. Trump responded, “Absolutely. Yeah, absolutely.”

So let me reitterate: Trump sees no need to leave NATO if the Eurofags pretend to pull their weight with a paltry 2% of GDP going to at least an attempt at national defense instead of monthly cash payments to niggers & violent dunecoons or PR pushes for Troons & fags. And if they don't, he would "consider" withdrawing - because if there aren't any consequences a threat isn't a threat.

So the headline "Trump calls for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and says a US withdrawal from NATO is possible" would be more accurately put as "Trump calls on Russia to negotiate ceasefire with Ukraine in TrumpTwitter post. In a wholly unrelated interview, Trump would consider the possibility of leaving NATO if Eurofags continue to refuse to actually fund their own defense"

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

All they said so far is that they're not going to attack them.
Remember the context: The rebels have de facto been at war with Russia for a long time and killed Russian soldiers during their offensive.

Come on, they have the perfect opportunity to do the funny

 

[-Jack-]

I think it's also important to take whatever Trump says he will do with a grain of salt. He may say he will do x, y, z tomorrow, but then next week will do a, b, c, instead (most of the time), though that was from his first term, he might be different for his last term, or maybe not.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Seems like Russia will be keeping their bases, I reckon Turkey made sure they'd be fine.
View attachment 6730600

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/12/9/7488332/

This suggests talks are in progress and any talks are at a tentative stage and Turkiye's help had been obtained to try extricate stranded Russian forces. Erdogan is likely trying to up his play both sides game. He has only strong influence is over the SNA whose job is to bash the Kurds (which they do fairly well having taking territory and a city from them). Qatar is the foreign patron of note for the HTS led alliance. Erdogan doesn't control HTS.