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Experts are warning of a looming increase in grocery prices as agricultural soil becomes increasingly unproductive.
In a concerning trend that could impact households across the globe, the combination of overfarming, climate change and insufficient sustainable practices has left vast swaths of farmland degraded and unproductive, threatening food supply chains and driving up costs.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 33 percent of the Earth's soils are already degraded and more than 90 percent could become degraded by 2050.
"Soil erosion rates are much higher than soil formation rates," the FAO said. "Soil is a finite resource, meaning its loss and degradation is not recoverable within a human lifespan."
A map previously published by Newsweek predicts that 95 percent of America's soil will be degraded in less than 30 years. Only a 5 percent area is marked not degraded.
A large area of soil erosion caused by water runoff over the years on June 16, 2021, near Buellton, California. Experts predict soil erosion and degradation will increase grocery prices in the U.S. George Rose/Getty Images
Experts point to several key drivers behind declining soil productivity. Overfarming strips the soil of essential nutrients and leads to erosion.
Additionally, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather events exacerbate soil erosion and salinization.
Another factor is deforestation. Clearing land for agriculture reduces organic matter in the soil and destroys ecosystems that support fertility.
Staple grocery items such as bread, fresh vegetables and meat could see significant price hikes going forward. Produce and grains are directly impacted by soil fertility, while the rising cost of feed grains for livestock drives up meat prices.
"While food prices rise, the topsoil in the U.S. is declining. These two things are intrinsically connected. The U.S. loses billions of metric tons of topsoil annually—impacting food systems and costing the nation $67 billion each year.
"These depleted soils lead to reduced crop yields, forcing farmers to rely on costly fertilizers and irrigation, which drive up food production costs and, ultimately, consumer prices.
"Healthy soil is the foundation of our food security, yet it is increasingly vulnerable to erosion, nutrient loss and climate change. When soil becomes unproductive, it not only threatens our food supply but also farmer's livelihoods.
"By taking immediate action to restore and protect our soils—through practices like regenerative agriculture, integrating trees, crops and animals—we can help future-proof food prices, and enhance the resilience of farms and farmers to climate and market risks.
"Protecting our soil isn't just an environmental priority; it's an economic and social imperative."
In an emailed statement to Newsweek on Monday, a representative for the FAO said: "FAO does track with the FAO Food Price Index the price at point of export of major commodities. That, however, accounts for a passingly small share of the American household retail price so we don't like to correlate.
"Soil damage is a major risk. FAO assessments suggest the 2022 food price jump was a post-COVID one. [It] may have had to do with repairing global supply chains and relatively loose monetary policy in the USA and elsewhere.
"That said, the view on fertilizers is widely shared with FAO. In fact, members have asked FAO to add a FAO Fertilizer Price Index to the Food index above, and shortly we will do that. Again, on a global level.
"I am not sure there is evidence of depleted crop yields in the USA yet due to soil. There are lurking issues due to excess fertilizers and one day also depleted aquifers. Not just in the USA.
"The US State Department is very eagerly promoting FAO's work on "soil maps" in hunger-impacted countries [Central America, Ethiopia, others] so both parties agree this is hyper-important."
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), planting cover crops provides multiple benefits, including controlling erosion.
These types of methods help restore soil health, improve carbon sequestration and reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers. Carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to reduce greenhouse gas levels and mitigate climate change
According to Farm Together, practices such as reduced tillage, crop rotation and no-till farming can enhance soil health, lower costs and support long-term farm value.
Additionally, innovations like regenerative agriculture and soil-monitoring technologies could offer hope for reversing the damage, along with subsidies for farmers adopting greener methods.
Experts are warning of a looming increase in grocery prices as agricultural soil becomes increasingly unproductive.
In a concerning trend that could impact households across the globe, the combination of overfarming, climate change and insufficient sustainable practices has left vast swaths of farmland degraded and unproductive, threatening food supply chains and driving up costs.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that 33 percent of the Earth's soils are already degraded and more than 90 percent could become degraded by 2050.
Why It Matters
According to the FAO, soil erosion "occurs naturally under all climatic conditions and on all continents, but it is significantly increased and accelerated by unsustainable human activities (up to 1,000 times) through intensive agriculture, deforestation, overgrazing and improper land use changes."Soil erosion rates are much higher than soil formation rates," the FAO said. "Soil is a finite resource, meaning its loss and degradation is not recoverable within a human lifespan."
A map previously published by Newsweek predicts that 95 percent of America's soil will be degraded in less than 30 years. Only a 5 percent area is marked not degraded.
A large area of soil erosion caused by water runoff over the years on June 16, 2021, near Buellton, California. Experts predict soil erosion and degradation will increase grocery prices in the U.S. George Rose/Getty Images
What to Know
Soil degradation reduces the ability of farmland to sustain crops, forcing farmers to invest in costly artificial fertilizers and other interventions—or, in the worst cases, abandon their fields altogether.Experts point to several key drivers behind declining soil productivity. Overfarming strips the soil of essential nutrients and leads to erosion.
Additionally, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall and extreme weather events exacerbate soil erosion and salinization.
Another factor is deforestation. Clearing land for agriculture reduces organic matter in the soil and destroys ecosystems that support fertility.
Staple grocery items such as bread, fresh vegetables and meat could see significant price hikes going forward. Produce and grains are directly impacted by soil fertility, while the rising cost of feed grains for livestock drives up meat prices.
What People Are Saying
"In the U.S. between 2016 and 2024, the Consumer Price Index for food has increased year on year," said former regenerative farmer Anand Ethirajalu, a project director at the Save Soil Movement and the Rally for Rivers Project. In fact, 2022 saw the highest annual increase since 1979, with food-at-home prices rising by 11.4 percent."While food prices rise, the topsoil in the U.S. is declining. These two things are intrinsically connected. The U.S. loses billions of metric tons of topsoil annually—impacting food systems and costing the nation $67 billion each year.
"These depleted soils lead to reduced crop yields, forcing farmers to rely on costly fertilizers and irrigation, which drive up food production costs and, ultimately, consumer prices.
"Healthy soil is the foundation of our food security, yet it is increasingly vulnerable to erosion, nutrient loss and climate change. When soil becomes unproductive, it not only threatens our food supply but also farmer's livelihoods.
"By taking immediate action to restore and protect our soils—through practices like regenerative agriculture, integrating trees, crops and animals—we can help future-proof food prices, and enhance the resilience of farms and farmers to climate and market risks.
"Protecting our soil isn't just an environmental priority; it's an economic and social imperative."
In an emailed statement to Newsweek on Monday, a representative for the FAO said: "FAO does track with the FAO Food Price Index the price at point of export of major commodities. That, however, accounts for a passingly small share of the American household retail price so we don't like to correlate.
"Soil damage is a major risk. FAO assessments suggest the 2022 food price jump was a post-COVID one. [It] may have had to do with repairing global supply chains and relatively loose monetary policy in the USA and elsewhere.
"That said, the view on fertilizers is widely shared with FAO. In fact, members have asked FAO to add a FAO Fertilizer Price Index to the Food index above, and shortly we will do that. Again, on a global level.
"I am not sure there is evidence of depleted crop yields in the USA yet due to soil. There are lurking issues due to excess fertilizers and one day also depleted aquifers. Not just in the USA.
"The US State Department is very eagerly promoting FAO's work on "soil maps" in hunger-impacted countries [Central America, Ethiopia, others] so both parties agree this is hyper-important."
What Happens Next
While the outlook is mixed, solutions are within reach. Farmers and policy-makers are advocating for sustainable agricultural practices such as cover cropping and reduced tillage.According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), planting cover crops provides multiple benefits, including controlling erosion.
These types of methods help restore soil health, improve carbon sequestration and reduce reliance on synthetic fertilizers. Carbon sequestration is the process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide to reduce greenhouse gas levels and mitigate climate change
According to Farm Together, practices such as reduced tillage, crop rotation and no-till farming can enhance soil health, lower costs and support long-term farm value.
Additionally, innovations like regenerative agriculture and soil-monitoring technologies could offer hope for reversing the damage, along with subsidies for farmers adopting greener methods.
Shouldn't there be a price drop on agricultural properties? All the "useless soil"? Probably not ey?
