2023 Israel-Palestine Armed Conflict

Notice how I said "exists", present tense. Israel is currently totally dependent on the US. If the US didn't protect Israel then Israel would, at best, be an isolated shithole like North Korea.

You realize this is by US design, right? The US wants Israel more dependent on the US so Israeli geopolitical interests aren't like going to interfere with what the US desires for the region. The US isn't "protecting" Israel, but keeping Israel on a leash to avoid destabilizing the Levant even further than it already is.

It's certainly not in the Israelis interest to allow aid to enter Gaza while they're engaging in active hostilities, but rather American interests to try to make it look like they care about the Palestinians for the various US-friendly Arab governments, and to ensure some bit of stability (especially for Egypt, who certainly doesn't want two million Palestinians in the Sinai).


Case in point, the only time Israel tried to "go it alone" between 1967 and 1972 they wound up almost getting conquered by Egypt and had to threaten nukes to get Nixon to save the day.

What the flying fuck are you talking about? At what point between 1967 and 1972 did the Israelis come anywhere close to getting conquered by Egypt?


The answer to "who won the war" is actually really simple: who achieved their stated objectives?

Netanyahu said he'd rescue the hostages by force, that he'd destroy Hamas and force them out of Gaza. He failed to destroy Hamas and he's only able to rescue hostages because of negotiations with Hamas, so clearly he didn't win.

If that's the case, what were the stated goals of Hamas? Did they achieve victory in destroying Israel as they so desired?

Edit: Additionally, the war isn't over, and the Israelis generally are in a better position when they need not worry about trying to find and liberate hostages in combat operations if things become heated again. Far easier to exterminate Hamas and their supporters if bombing a building/tunnel doesn't risk killing their own people by accident.
 
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I'm just curious as to how anybody knows that any of the hostages are still alive to make this deal. Who trusts ham-ass?

My bet is on ol'hammy fucking this shit up by not having the people they say they do and the fighting just restarting again. Whatever. Buy American. Keep grinding the muzzies to dust.


The only way this ends is the West proper deciding that islam is too much of a Global Threat to Humanity and digging out Grand Pappy's Old Uniform from up in the attic to Do Something Serious About It.
 
The whole hostage deal not differentiating living people and corpses is insane. Hamas can release 30 corpses and that will technically fulfill its part of the deal. It's a new low bar in the insanity of "deal at any cost" that became a mantra in Israeli media. We trade Israeli corpses for future Israeli corpses.

The media also starts with demoralisation campaign on how Israel lost the war, mainly as political ammunition because the journos would literally burn the country down to get rid of Nathanyahu. It's mainly a lot of armchair politics as if the more leftist political candidates would have enacted TPD, or thinking that the hate for Israel is solely due to bad optics rather than the result of pre existing demographic and political currents.
 
The whole hostage deal not differentiating living people and corpses is insane. Hamas can release 30 corpses and that will technically fulfill its part of the deal. It's a new low bar in the insanity of "deal at any cost" that became a mantra in Israeli media. We trade Israeli corpses for future Israeli corpses.

The media also starts with demoralisation campaign on how Israel lost the war, mainly as political ammunition because the journos would literally burn the country down to get rid of Nathanyahu. It's mainly a lot of armchair politics as if the more leftist political candidates would have enacted TPD, or thinking that the hate for Israel is solely due to bad optics rather than the result of pre existing demographic and political currents.

I assume that any body returned will be checked to make sure they weren't just killed (or killed within the last few days of this deal/announcement). There would be no incentive to return any Israeli alive if there's no consequences for returning dead bodies.

It'd be political suicide for Trump and Netanyahu if all they got were 30+ bodies, especially if they were killed within the timeframe of the deal being "agreed to". Trump wants his photo-op with living US hostages, not caskets, and frankly no ceasefire will last if all we get are dead.
 
I'm surprised the Trump Admins this time weren't giving Israel a big W and just told the two sides to accept the deal or they'll fuck off.

wtf Trump is being based?
They might have given Israel the green light to go after Iran's nuke program. Also he's not being based. he wants his regan photo-op

Hamas has yet to provide a list of hostages and so the cease fire will not happen.


All while people move from southern to Central gaza. I think hamas wants to make a problem for the idf by reintroducing civilians. Although I'm interested in seeing how much power they will have in the Western social scene as the last thing that went through before tik tok shut off was the success of the cease-fire. I also think other nations will follow the usa and ban tik tok. Finally it will be interesting for the semester when all the foreign kids promoting hamas are deported.
 
I take it Israel is hoping that it’s enough of the Hamas leadership that it just devolves into warbands fighting each other for control?

Releasing 1,000 prisoners who have time to form a hierarchy seems retarded in that case.

Risking the future safety of the country over the hostages seems really short sighted and it would be much better to carry on mopping up Hamas. Giving them time to regroup and rearm is pretty humiliating.
You don’t call for a ceasefire when you’re winning.
 
I think Israel had to agree to a ceasefire due to the domestic pressure of people wanting a ceasefire. Now that Hamas has been unable to provide a list of hose hostages, Israel can just carry on while saying 'see, we tried but Hamas didn't release anyone' and calm some of the domestic pressure.

With the 1000 prisoners, it's a war crime to just kill them all in prison and even the US might have something to say about that. But a bomb dropped onto 1000 enemy combatants in Gaza ? Well that's just good business.
 
i24 is reporting the list of names FINALLY has been given to Israel

I think Israel had to agree to a ceasefire due to the domestic pressure of people wanting a ceasefire. Now that Hamas has been unable to provide a list of hose hostages, Israel can just carry on while saying 'see, we tried but Hamas didn't release anyone' and calm some of the domestic pressure.

Remember Israel has an economy it has to keep up . What does Palestine have? Nothing. They live off hand outs. It's like how you don't see people with jobs gang-banging because they have better things to do. But those without jobs have all the time to kill and sell dope


With the 1000 prisoners, it's a war crime to just kill them all in prison and even the US might have something to say about that. But a bomb dropped onto 1000 enemy combatants in Gaza ? Well that's just good business.
Generally that's how it works
 
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This is why current/modern western civilization and everything touched by it seems doomed. You can't even call this defeat from the jaws of victory (I mean Isreal is still coming out much better in all this but) it is plainly "we are winning, better do something to stop that!"

The fallacy that violence is never the answer, is both idealistically toxic and dangerous! Instead we let conflict simmer and fester.. allowing continued small scale violence and horror likely eclipse the pain of just getting it over with in a lot of cases. Letting evil fester and persist.. let monsters rule for the sake of "preventing the violence of war"

I mean this is not to say that all wars are good or smart, even against bad people... just that we operate on a faulty and noxious logic which insists that none are... EVER!

In a more general way.. it bares all the lunacy of Gandhi (one of histories most deranged and dangerous) style suicidal passivism. "better to let them genocide you than to "stoop" to their level in using violence to defend yourself." Nonsense.. utter nonsense. (That is the LITERAL argument he used against the Jews in WW2 in response to Jew death camp and prison city upraises... some truly evil and perversity about how much nobler it would be to law down for their murderers than commit violence in trying to survive.)
 
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Is the baby included on the list?
No.
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Smotrichs explanation of his actions:

So why didn't I resign from the government? Because I have a national responsibility for victory and security, and I'm willing to pay a price for it. Because I don't run away from the battlefield in the middle of a war, even after a crushing defeat in one of its battles, just to keep my hands clean. I continue to fight and strive for victory.

***
When I left the yeshiva and entered politics, it was clear to me that I was going to get my hands dirty. Moving from a theoretical field of pure and uncompromising truth to an applied field that is all about maneuvering in order to realize the maximum of values in the tangle of complex reality and its limitations. Much less warm and cozy, much more real and influential. An inherent part of the price of this is being "desirable to the majority of one's brothers."

***
Contrary to all sorts of childish spin, at the stage the negotiations had reached, it was impossible to stop the deal, not even by threatening to overthrow the government.

Our ultimatum would have triggered a counter-ultimatum from Deri and the Haredim. They too have positions, values, and rabbis, and according to their view of the law of Pikuach Nefesh, they should have made a deal and saved the hostages long ago. They also cannot afford to forgive their insult and be trampled under an ultimatum from other partners.

We have an alternative to Netanyahu, even if only temporarily, with a left-wing safety net until an agreed-upon date for the elections. This, of course, is in exchange for an end to the war and the IDF's withdrawal from the Strip, while leaving Hamas in Gaza in the remaining stages of the deal.

For the Haredim, on the other hand, Netanyahu has no alternative from the right, and that means immediate elections. He wouldn't do that.

In addition, Netanyahu would not have entered into a frontal confrontation with the incoming US President Trump. It is also wrong and even dangerous to turn the Israeli Prime Minister into a weak and lame duck, who on his own side wants a deal but is completely dependent on his partners on the right and surrenders to them. Trump is a man of strong Wieners and only with them does he like to do business. We do not want him to catch the Israeli Prime Minister on the side of the weak, whose side is not worth being on.

And also: Netanyahu blowing up the deal at the last minute "for political reasons of the government's survival," at this stage when it is already clear that there is a deal that can be signed, is a galactic explosion that I'm not sure those who pushed for it understand its significance. It puts Netanyahu in a direct and frontal confrontation with the majority of the people (who unfortunately succumbed to immediate emotion and supported the deal), a confrontation that sits on a huge pain point (and shared by all of us) that is like a gunpowder keg, a confrontation with the majority of his coalition and his party, with the heads of the defense establishment, with the outgoing US president, who has a few more days left to pass dangerous resolutions on our heads in revenge in the Security Council, and with the incoming president who demanded this achievement for his own reasons. It is a galactic explosion in Israeli society and the burning of the streets and a massive social and political crisis. There is no chance in the world that Netanyahu would have done this, and therefore the deal could not have been stopped.

The truth is, I'm not even sure that it was right to push him there by force. I'm not an irresponsible pyromaniac who is willing to go with his truth blindly and with all his might in the face of unbearable prices.

***
Now, after it was clear that the deal could not be stopped, the question that remained was whether to resign despite this, simply to not be a part of and not take responsibility for such a bad and dangerous decision.

On a personal and selfish level, this is the most convenient and obvious step. My hands are clean and did not shed this blood. My conscience is clear, and even when the terrible prices of the deal explode in our faces long after the joyous celebrations over the return of our hostages are over, it will not be on my hands. It is also reasonable to assume that I will receive a hug for this from the people nearest and dearest to me. We are people of pure ideology and appreciate those who stand by it without compromise. Compromises that are required by the need to realize the ideology in the tangle of complex reality always leave a less good taste in the mouth and are also more difficult to explain and understand than absolute ideological loyalty that makes us feel, rightly, that there is someone who represents us faithfully and says exactly what we want to hear.

But this is a lack of national responsibility - in light of the war, victory and security, and in light of the myriad of challenges and opportunities that are at stake.

It's like fleeing the battlefield in the midst of war just because we lost one of the battles.

Beyond the great risks of releasing terrorists, returning Gazans to the northern Gaza Strip, etc., the greatest strategic damage in this deal lies in the fact that the message it resonates with is that kidnapping Israelis brings the State of Israel to its knees. This is a danger to every Jew around the world. The only way to repair this damage and turn the deal into a tactical loss in battle rather than a strategic defeat in war is to return to fighting until Hamas is destroyed. Make sure that the message that resonates from this war at its end is that whoever kidnaps Jews is dead, destroyed, erased. Even if he had tactical victories along the way, in the big picture he is gone and it doesn't pay off. If you will, "he who laughs last laughs."

And to make sure this happens, we must remain in government. Ensuring this in every way, my colleagues and I worked day and night last week, and we will continue to do so until it happens, God willing.


In the face of war, the ultimate goal was and remains a complete victory over Hamas in Gaza. The continuation of the successful moves that have won the hearts of many in all sectors of the fighting over the past year and have led to great achievements at enormous and painful prices. The continuation of the great spirit that has been and is pulsating in this nation and standing on guard lest we, God forbid, dissolve it and pour the abundant blood down the drain. The complete destruction of Hamas, military, civilian and governmental, the removal of the threat posed by the Gaza Strip to the citizens of Israel for many years and the return of all the abductees.

The overthrow of the government would inevitably lead to a halt to the war. The left would provide Netanyahu with a safety net for a few months, only in exchange for a commitment to continue with the remaining stages of the deal and end the war without destroying Hamas and overthrowing its rule in Gaza. Our remaining in the government on the condition of continuing the pursuit of victory gives us a great chance of succeeding in this.

This deal does take us back from this goal in a serious way and piles up great difficulties in achieving it along the way, but it does not close the door on it. Not if there are those in the coalition who will continue to strive for it without giving up, and will make sure with all their might that with the help of God and the spirit of the people, this will indeed happen.

That's why I'm staying in the government. I'm leaving the sword of the threat to its survival hanging for the coming months. That's why I've been conducting persistent negotiations with the Prime Minister and his people in recent days in order to create certainty and anchor the continuation of the war and its management from here on out in a more correct manner that will, with God's help, bring about the realization of its full goals:

- No more "raids" of entry and exit that cost us a lot of blood, but complete takeover of all the territories of the Gaza Strip and its systematic cleansing from Hamas's nests of terror.

- Managing the humanitarian effort through a temporary military government and in a way that the aid will not reach Hamas and will not preserve its rule. This is one of the most serious failures in the management of the war so far and without correcting this folly we will not be able to destroy Hamas.

- Seizing territory in order to burn the consciousness of defeat into our enemies. And a few other important points that it is better not to talk about right now.

- All of this requires the replacement of the IDF leadership, which unfortunately does not know how and does not want to realize this achievement, and we will have to expand on this much further below.

Naturally, I cannot list all the elements that convinced me with a high degree of certainty that this is where we are going. But if my colleagues and I decided to remain in government despite the difficulty and the cost, then trust that we were convinced of this.

***
Successes and failures, and in general the correctness of decisions, are measured over time. It will probably take some time to find out whether we were right or wrong. I believe and hope that we will be right. This was the case with the previous deal and in the face of the fear that we would not return to fighting, and this was also the case with the ceasefire in Lebanon in the face of the fear that the agreement would not be enforced with determination.

***
And more broadly, I believe with all my heart that we face urgent existential challenges on the one hand, and tremendous historical opportunities on the other, which can be advanced in two years of a right-wing government backed by the Trump administration. There is no doubt that this deal, and Trump's pressure to follow through on it, reflect a start on the wrong foot and leave a sour taste in the mouth, but we can and should hope that this is not indicative of what will happen next.

Two years of a right-wing government backed by President Trump and his bevy of appointments, which, if truth be told, seem too good to be true, will allow the B.A. to change the face of the Middle East and strengthen Israel's power for many years to come.

Lifting the arms and engineering embargo and the illusory demands imposed on us by the current administration in the humanitarian field and the limitations on combat will allow us to return to fighting in Gaza in an effective manner that will lead to victory, removing the Iranian nuclear threat and crushing the head of the octopus, permanently removing the danger of the Arab terrorist state in Judea and Samaria from the agenda and applying Israeli sovereignty to all of its areas, expanding the circle of the Abraham Accords with alliances based on economic and regional interests with tremendous development potential for the entire region, and of course, preserving the government of the national camp and the alliance of the believing public to strengthen the Jewish identity of the state, reforming the legal system - even if with more measured compromises and steps than we attempted before the war, rebuilding the IDF and building the force based on a much more sober and stronger security concept, and many other tasks that can and should be promoted in the almost two years we have left until the elections.

Toppling a government, beyond immediately ending the war and stamping defeat on the hostage deal, will lead to elections after which, in the best case scenario, we will get a government similar to the current one headed by Netanyahu, and in the worst case scenario, a left-wing government with supporters of terrorism and enemies of Israel.

***
With all the pain of the difficult deal, my heart is moved and I look forward to seeing our captives return home in the coming weeks. This sacred duty of returning all our captives to their homes accompanies me in every decision I make during the conduct of the war. No eye, including those of those opposed to the deal, will remain dry when we are blessed to see, with God's help, the return of our captives.


And a word to the heroes of the nation - the warriors and commanders in the regular and reserve forces, the members of their supportive families who bravely bear the burden on the home front, the bereaved families who lost their most precious person in the war, the IDF wounded and their families - you are always before my eyes. I burden my people with a deep commitment to continue until victory so that your efforts and sacrifices will not, God forbid, be in vain. We will continue to carry in God a great spirit of heroism and faith, dedication and sacrifice out of mutual guarantee and ardent faith in the righteousness of the path and in the obligation to continue walking it with determination until victory.

***
And during lockdown, it is worth remembering - we do not run the world. We only try to act in Rabush's world and do the best we can and according to our discretion. I am not sure that I am right. I may be wrong. I do not have the whole truth, and the reality and the dilemmas and the analyses and assessments of the situation and the conflicting values are too complex for it to be possible to swear that one thing is right. I have no complaints against those who are angry with me on the one hand or those who are disappointed in me on the other. We need a lot of humility in the face of reality and even more so prayers that God, the Almighty, will correct us with good advice from before Him. This is what I answered everyone who sent me messages of encouragement or criticism in the past week. I try to learn and deepen, think and consult and make the best decisions according to what my eyes see. In the hope and prayer that no mishap will occur under my control. I hope that I aimed for the will of God and with Him this time too.

Dear people of Israel, let us raise our heads! Let us gather strength together, embrace the abductees who have returned home, rejoice with their families and loved ones, let us look at reality in its true light and know that there is still much to fix, but let us not give up. Let us charge forward and continue the great spirit that beats throughout the nation of Israel, and together, with God's help, we will prevail.

very good explanation that shows a peek behind the curtain
 
A few updates.

First, a thread favorite, Mr. FAFO. Somehow, after dying multiple times, having his legs blown off, etc etc etc, he's turning in his "Press" vest for a Keffiyeh. As a warning, there's annoying "music".



Sandniggers sandnigging during the transfer of three hostages from Hamas to the Red Cross, including them climbing on the van and things like that.



And the first three hostages have been returned to Israel.
 
You realize this is by US design, right? The US wants Israel more dependent on the US so Israeli geopolitical interests aren't like going to interfere with what the US desires for the region. The US isn't "protecting" Israel, but keeping Israel on a leash to avoid destabilizing the Levant even further than it already is.

It's certainly not in the Israelis interest to allow aid to enter Gaza while they're engaging in active hostilities, but rather American interests to try to make it look like they care about the Palestinians for the various US-friendly Arab governments, and to ensure some bit of stability (especially for Egypt, who certainly doesn't want two million Palestinians in the Sinai).
Okay, so why doesn't Israel just say "lol no" and take off the leash? If Israel doesn't need the US and is fully capable of handling its enemies alone then why doesn't it do so?
What the flying fuck are you talking about? At what point between 1967 and 1972 did the Israelis come anywhere close to getting conquered by Egypt?
Three words: Operation Nickel Grass
If that's the case, what were the stated goals of Hamas? Did they achieve victory in destroying Israel as they so desired?
They've been pretty consistent since the start: the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners and the full withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza. In other words, the deal they just agreed to.
Edit: Additionally, the war isn't over, and the Israelis generally are in a better position when they need not worry about trying to find and liberate hostages in combat operations if things become heated again. Far easier to exterminate Hamas and their supporters if bombing a building/tunnel doesn't risk killing their own people by accident.
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People continue to cope and deny!
 
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