Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

With Trump, I'm not entirely sure the business approach is correct in this situation. Can you really handle a bloody war with such immense grudges like it's a business transaction? I don't know if he has the right mindset going into this.
There has to be clear understanding that stick should be within arm's reach in these negotiations. US can't be soft, it shouldn't end up as appeasement. If it's a compromise, it should be fair to Ukraine and at the very least ensure this doesn't repeat, Putin should walk away from these talks without any funny ideas about pulling shit like this again. Otherwise it would be useless.
This could be an opportunity to end it for good, so I hope Trump uses it and doesn't just kick the can down the road so he could say that he stopped to war, just for it to reignite again few years later.

 

[Something Awful]

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"Ukraine’s territorial losses will be formalized in a special agreement, Keith Kellogg says. Kellogg believes that territorial losses could be part of negotiations, but Kyiv is not necessarily required to acknowledge them.

He recalled that the U.S. never recognized Soviet sovereignty over the Baltic states, suggesting that the territorial issue should be viewed from a long-term perspective."

This seems somewhat reasonable to me. Russia gets to keep claiming it's their territory, but it is not generally internationally recognized as such, Ukraine maintains its own claim and waits it out until that shithole collapses and Ukraine can be reunified. I mean it's not ideal but seems like the realistic option at the moment.

Nigga your country is not a dox, holy shit you are paranoid lmao.

Not if you're fucking American, but it can be a hint to your IRL identity if you happen to be from a much smaller country. Then, if some dedicated autist digs through your post history and puts enough puzzle pieces together, enjoy being held publicly accountable for every shitpost made on the infamous white supremacist hate site Kiwi Farms.

 

[Blackstar]

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant sarcophagus got drone striked by the Russians, are they trying to make Stalker real?

 

[purpleflurp]

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant sarcophagus got drone striked by the Russians, are they trying to make Stalker real?
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This is almost as retarded as when the vatniggers were digging trenches around chernobyl.

 

[Something Awful]

Some statements from Vance (archive of full article from WSJ).

PARIS—Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the U.S. would hit Moscow with sanctions and potentially military action if Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv’s long-term independence.

Vance said the option of sending U.S. troops to Ukraine if Moscow failed to negotiate in good faith remained “on the table,” striking a far tougher tone than did Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who on Wednesday suggested the U.S. wouldn’t commit forces.

“There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” the U.S. could use against Putin, Vance said.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal hours after President Trump said he would start negotiating with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, Vance said: “I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”

 

[teriyakiburns]

Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the U.S. would hit Moscow with sanctions and potentially military action if Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv’s long-term independence.

Aaaand there's the stick.

Assuming it's real and not just a plastic display stick.

 

[RandomTwitterGuy]

Some statements from Vance (archive of full article from WSJ).

PARIS—Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the U.S. would hit Moscow with sanctions and potentially military action if Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv’s long-term independence.

Vance said the option of sending U.S. troops to Ukraine if Moscow failed to negotiate in good faith remained “on the table,” striking a far tougher tone than did Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who on Wednesday suggested the U.S. wouldn’t commit forces.

“There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” the U.S. could use against Putin, Vance said.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal hours after President Trump said he would start negotiating with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, Vance said: “I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”

Vance doesn't knows shit. He is too busy being pegged by a sofa on Tiel's behalf. He is less in government than even Elon.

 

[Optimus Prime]

Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant sarcophagus got drone striked by the Russians, are they trying to make Stalker real?
View attachment 6980567

Why the actual fuck would Putin want to drone strike Chernobyl?

 

[teriyakiburns]

Why the actual fuck would Putin want to drone strike Chernobyl?

To harm and demoralise the civilian population as much as possible, they deliberately bomb power stations. It's marked on their soviet-era maps as a power station. Any thinking beyond that isn't necessary, comrade.

 

[WelperHelper99]

I think a realistic end goal is the Donbros and Crimea are made "special administrative regions" that are part of Ukraine but Russia gets some sort of special economic consideration; Russian free trade zones or portions of pipeline tolls going directly to the local governments, something like that. Russia getting a long-term lease on the soviet facilities in Crimea to allow them more time to complete moving the BSF to Novorossiysk. Probably an agreement on allowing a reconstitution of the BSF with modern ships and without fuckery from Turkey.

I'd like some level of limits of forces that Russia can put X kilometers from the Ukrainian border to keep away any future "little green men" attempts, but I'm not that optimistic to think that's remotely realistic

I feel that's actually fair to everyone and would prevent future conflicts tbh. I agree with your assessment as well on Russian force deployments being limited would be optimistic. That said, as long as Ukraine is a independent nation with sufficient strike back capacity post war, this should be less of a issue.

I'd prioritize the navy first for Ukraine tbh, get some ships with land attack capability, Tomahawks, that shit, along with some actual multi purpose frigates with actual Anti Air. Maybe even pay for a Arleigh Burke-class destroyer if Trump is already in the buisness of selling equipment for mining rights. That though is just pure speculation.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

First priority is nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Some statements from Vance (archive of full article from WSJ).

PARIS—Vice President JD Vance said Thursday that the U.S. would hit Moscow with sanctions and potentially military action if Russian President Vladimir Putin won’t agree to a peace deal with Ukraine that guarantees Kyiv’s long-term independence.

Vance said the option of sending U.S. troops to Ukraine if Moscow failed to negotiate in good faith remained “on the table,” striking a far tougher tone than did Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who on Wednesday suggested the U.S. wouldn’t commit forces.

“There are economic tools of leverage, there are of course military tools of leverage” the U.S. could use against Putin, Vance said.
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal hours after President Trump said he would start negotiating with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, Vance said: “I think there is a deal that is going to come out of this that’s going to shock a lot of people.”

This administration is downright schizophrenic
It would be nice if they talked things out between each other before making public statements on important matters at least. What am I supposed to believe?

 

[YHWH's Strongest Soldier]

What am I supposed to believe?

Difficult to say at this point. I'd say that Hegseth did a Hegseth and Vance was sent in to sweep it up and strike down any speculation that the Trump administration is pro Moscow as NATO allies started expressing their concerns. Mind you, this doesn't actually tell us what is the real stance of the admin. It's VP's word against that of the SecDef.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Difficult to say at this point. I'd say that Hegseth did a Hegseth and Vance was sent in to sweep it up and strike down any speculation that the Trump administration is pro Moscow as NATO allies started expressing their concerns. Mind you, this doesn't actually tell us what is the real stance of the admin. It's VP's word against that of the SecDef.

Or it means they are a gaggle of incompetents who don't know how to negotiate.

Everything Hegseth said was affirmed by Trump personally.
They're now trying to walk it back, but you can't unsay that what the other side should see as major concessions are free grants in your mind.

Vance also used his speech to support pro-Russian European parties that want to dismantle NATO and the EU. This should be used to contextualize the Trump admin's claims that they don't have a deranged hatred of all things European and do actually care about deterrence or whatever.
Cherry picking statements you like and ignoring what you don't like leads to garbage analysis and wrong predictions.

If you look at the way people behave, you can draw conclusions about their inner workings and use those to predict the future.
Events are unfolding the way you would expect them to if you adopt my view, which is substantiated with evidence.

People who adhere to the Master Negotiator 4D Chess theory on the other hand are stumped by events again and again and again.
But they don't adjust their framework, they just blindly hope that while they are wrong every step along the way, the end result will for some reason be what they want.

Take your pick.

 

[Frederica Bernkastel]

Cherry picking statements you like and ignoring what you don't like leads to garbage analysis and wrong predictions.

Isn't that what you're doing too since you don't like Trump or Vance? I don't think they could do anything to satisfy you which kinda makes your analysis a problem. You make the mistake that MAGA is a monolith, when it's not, and that hurts your arguments a lot.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Isn't that what you're doing too since you don't like Trump or Vance? I don't think they could do anything to satisfy you which kinda makes your analysis a problem. You make the mistake that MAGA is a monolith, when it's not, and that hurts your arguments a lot.

I quote politicians and refer to specific actions they take, and incorporate as much as I can into a coherent picture of their properties.
I dislike them because the things they do are socially harmful and they're degenerate assholes.

The other side throws a temper tantrum and floods the thread with garbage for a couple pages and then declares they won the argument when they as much as see a video of Trump himself saying something that goes against their narrative.

If you think these two are equally valid then IDK what to tell you.

 

[WelperHelper99]

This administration is downright schizophrenic
It would be nice if they talked things out between each other before making public statements on important matters at least. What am I supposed to believe?

Believe everything and nothing until it's in writing. This is what we call a fluid situation. Things are going to shift and change until the bitter end. Buckle up.

First priority is nuclear weapons and their delivery systems.

Tomahawks have the capacity for nuclear delivery.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Vance also used his speech to support pro-Russian European parties that want to dismantle NATO and the EU. This should be used to contextualize the Trump admin's claims that they don't have a deranged hatred of all things European and do actually care about deterrence or whatever.
Cherry picking statements you like and ignoring what you don't like leads to garbage analysis and wrong predictions.

Vance Tells Europeans to Stop Shunning Parties Deemed Extreme - The New York Times (archived):

[Vance] poured scorn on the decision in “remote Romania,” as he called it, to cancel a presidential election because of clear evidence of Russian manipulation of the political campaign.
“If your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with,” he said.

That's what we call asymmetric warfare, Vance. Russia lacks the power projection of the US so it will place its money on populists who curiously have pro-Russian positions.
Source.

"If your Abrams can be destroyed by a few hundred dollars of FPV technology from China, then it wasn't very strong to begin with". - every BRICSter troll on /k/.

Frankly, it was better when the Russians were still Communists and Western oligarchs were just as afraid of socialism - probably more - as they were of the competing Soviet Union as a "superpower", which used disinformation just as much, albeit among Western intelligentsia. Now, Russia can convince TRAD and BASED right-wing populists (as well as less popular tankie leftists and milquetoast liberals) that Russia is as equally actually TRAD and BASED - even though trannies livestream in Moscow and Central Asians and Chechens flood the place - and is actually STRONK - even though Russia is having an external power projection crisis by losing its bases in Syria (Libya alone is not enough to cut it), while the US merely shrugged when it lost the same amount of bases in Afghanistan (i.e. it's not currently negotiating with the Taliban to regain access to them).

Tracked vehicles for transporting wounded to Ukraine | News item | Defensie.nl (archived):

The Netherlands is donating 25 YPR armoured tracked vehicles for the transport of wounded to Ukraine. Minister Ruben Brekelmans announced this today during a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG).

Latvia will deliver 42 «Patria» 6x6 armored vehicles to Ukraine / Article (archived).

 

[thx1138]

I feel that's actually fair to everyone and would prevent future conflicts tbh. I agree with your assessment as well on Russian force deployments being limited would be optimistic. That said, as long as Ukraine is a independent nation with sufficient strike back capacity post war, this should be less of a issue.

I'd prioritize the navy first for Ukraine tbh, get some ships with land attack capability, Tomahawks, that shit, along with some actual multi purpose frigates with actual Anti Air. Maybe even pay for a Arleigh Burke-class destroyer if Trump is already in the buisness of selling equipment for mining rights. That though is just pure speculation.

The russians shit themselves in rage when Aegis Ashore was installed in Poland, it'd be doubly hilarious if Trump cut a deal to build one in Ukraine.

 

[WelperHelper99]

The russians shit themselves in rage when Aegis Ashore was installed in Poland, it'd be doubly hilarious if Trump cut a deal to build one in Ukraine.

If it was built in a treaty agreement, they would have no grounds to, because they will have gotten something in return for Ukraine now having a nuke shield. What, don't know. But likely something to make Ukraine too hard a nut, and too lucrative a trading partner to do so. Again, situation is fluid.