Munich Security Conference
The Munich Panic Summit and the New American Toughness
Donald Trump sends his front row to the Munich Security Conference. The message: no consideration for German sensitivities. An extraordinary foreign policy week begins.
Donald Trump dominates the Munich Security Conference before it has even begun. The US President is not traveling to the MSC in Bavaria himself, but he is sending three of his most important representatives. Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his special representative for Ukraine , Keith Kellogg, are coming to the Hotel Bayerischer Hof on Odeonsplatz.
The trio's presence can be interpreted in a diplomatic positive way: the new US administration's attention to the Europeans is unbroken. The largest US delegation in years was praised by the conference's chairman, Christoph Heusgen, on Monday. Those who are more pessimistic fear chaos is heading for the EU. Either way: "Trumpism will be 'front and center' on the MSC main stage this year," explains security expert Rafael Loss from the European Council on Foreign Relations. "Without regard to European and German sensitivities and long-established transatlantic decorum."
The foreign and security policy emergency of Trump's second term will unfold for the first time on an open European stage from Friday (February 14).
Vance and Co. are the ambassadors of a new American toughness. Trump is demanding that NATO partners spend five percent of their GDP on defense, he is threatening allies such as Mexico, Canada and Europe with punitive tariffs ( just last weekend he announced tariffs of 25 percent on all steel and aluminum imports into the USA ), the US president wants to annex Danish Greenland and bring the Panama Canal and the Gaza Strip under US control. Trump has just imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court. To do this, he basically wants to shelve all US development aid.
The speed, scope and determination of this flood of orders from Trump surprise even experienced observers of international politics. And are probably part of the new calculations in the White House. Heads of state from all over the world arriving in Munich will have no choice but to argue with the USA about all these issues.
Peace treaty for Ukraine?
Especially since, according to media reports, special envoy Keith Kellogg is also planning to present a peace treaty for Ukraine at the conference. Trump allegedly wants to freeze the conflict, reopen Russia's gas market in return and at the same time provide security guarantees for Kiev. It's the same old story again: is he really serious about all this?
Or do Trump's people in Bavaria ultimately just want to "float a trial balloon," as the SPD's foreign policy spokesman Nils Schmid believes. "We could well be dealing with classic Trumpian negotiating tactics and maximum demands again," says Schmid. After all, key questions about a possible agreement remain completely unanswered to this day. "A quick solution to the Ukraine question is simply not that easy," says the SPD foreign policy expert.
Commentary by Max Biederbeck
Can an agreement even succeed? Will Kiev go along with it? Does Russia want to? Will the Europeans be at the table when negotiations take place? Nothing is clear. The EU and Germany remain caught off guard and in the dark. And this despite the fact that Kellogg's plans have been circulating since the US election campaign. "The USA and Trump reject a central role in securing a possible ceasefire in Ukraine and see the Europeans as having a duty," says security expert Claudia Major from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).
There is growing concern in Berlin that this obligation will lead to a demand for a purely European peacekeeping force in Ukraine. Not only does the German government reject this, but a European solo effort would also be virtually impossible. The EU is "currently not in a military position to credibly take on this task without US contributions," explains Major. "Moreover, no European country has yet shown any serious willingness to send troops."
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Risk USA
The fear of Trump's possible Ukraine plan alone shows how easily and ruthlessly he can shake up the international structure. It is therefore hardly surprising that the MSC Security Index, published on Monday, has measured a sharp rise in reservations among the G7 countries: not only towards Russia or China, but also towards the USA. In Canada and Germany in particular, respondents believe that a growing risk to the world is posed primarily by the United States.
A perception, the report says, that "could also be linked to the increased fear of trade wars or the use of nuclear weapons by an aggressor." Transatlantic friendship certainly feels different.
And that is only the short-term perspective: In the long term, the US under Trump is increasingly turning its attention towards China. This so-called "pivot to Asia" would have taken place under a Democratic presidency. But under Trump, the seemingly inevitable US withdrawal from Europe will be faster, more ruthless and more brutal. The Ukraine plan in Munich could be the starting signal for this.
A move that could backfire for Trump. The US's opponents have long since learned to exploit the president's short-term eagerness to make deals. There is a fear that "Russia will wear down Ukraine and divide the Western camp through tactical negotiations while continuing to fight. Support for Ukraine in Western countries could decline, as tactical negotiations create the illusion of a tangible end to the war ("peace")," writes Major in a recent working paper..
Trump's main opponent, Beijing, could also "benefit from the US withdrawal from international commitments and the alienation of long-standing partners by Washington," writes the MSC. The new renunciation of power by the USA will mean that "other actors will have to fill the gap" and there will be a growing polarization of the global community. This will make it more difficult worldwide to maintain the existing international legal order, "prevent arms races and violent conflicts, promote economic growth for all and address common threats posed by global warming.
The Munich Security Conference threatens to become a panic summit. Trump, meanwhile, is unlikely to be interested in the complicated relationships of international politics. The MSC Index shows that only in one G7 country does the population believe in a safe and prosperous future - the USA. And "Make America Great Again" has always been what Trump was most interested in, apart from himself.
ohh I really hope they pay for what they've done to those children. Remember how they found all those disappeared kids immediately in the first week?
