Bundestagswahl 2025 - General election in Germany

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

On election day, German voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in their district (like a U.S. House race) and one for a political party. The Bundestag (federal parliament) is then filled proportionally based on party votes, with 630 seats.

A party needs at least 5% of the vote (5% threshold) or 3 directly elected district seats to enter parliament. Since no party usually wins a majority, coalition negotiations follow, often taking weeks or months. Once parties agree on a coalition, they propose a chancellor candidate, who must be elected by the Bundestag. If successful, the president formally appoints the chancellor, who then takes office.


As for election day itself, the voting booths are open from 8 AM to 6 PM local time.
Exit polling and live coverage exist, but generally less dramatic than in the US. Although, with how absolutely heated this one is, it might come closer.
At 6 PM local time, the polls close and the first exit polls are immediately released on TV (public broadcasting, ARD/ZDF). These are usually quite accurate and the first moment to start laughing.
Around 6:15 to 8 PM, the first projections come in as the real vote count starts being integrated, and they get more precise as the night progresses.
Between 10 PM and midnight, a fairly stable official preliminary result is available, based on near-complete counting.
If you're watching for schadenfreude, 6 PM is the moment to tune in.


The current chancellor candidates are

• Olaf Scholz (Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)), current Federal Chancellor
• Robert Habeck (Green Party), current Vice Chancellor and Minister of the Economy
• Friedrich Merz (Christian Democratic Union (CDU)), CDU chairman
• Alice Weidel (Alternative for Germany (AfD)), AfD chairwoman
• Sahra Wagenknecht (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW)), BSW chairwoman

Pretty much all the polls before election day look like this:

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/bundestagswahl-2025-general-election-in-germany.212841/post-20664949

^ Check this post if you want to see what the party frontrunners had to say on Xitter today

^ Thread theme if you are against the status quo
(my attempt to translate the lyrics, post <-)

^ Thread theme if you are in favor of the status quo

---

Newsticker​

(military time; German local time; newest to oldest)

February 24​

(as you're reading the projections, keep in mind 316+ seats == absolute majority)

• 10:01: Wolfgang Kubicki (FDP) is considering running for party chairman due to overwhelming support, post <-
• 08:16: The very first thing CDU xeets is a call for Ukraine to win the war and Germany supporting it, post <-
• 02:00: First official result.
  16.41% SPD / 28.52% CDU / 11.61% Green / 4.33% FDP / 20.80% AfD / 8.77% Left / 4.97% BSW / 4.58% Others
  120 SPD / 208 CDU/CSU / 85 Green / 152 AfD / 64 Left / 1 SSW
• 01:48: Looks like the count is done in all districts, and BSW is out of the picture with 4.972%
• 00:34: New projection
  16.5% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 11.6% Green / 4.3% FDP / 20.8% AfD / 8.8% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.5% Others

February 23 - Election Day​

(as you're reading the projections, keep in mind 316+ seats == absolute majority)

• 23:40: New projection
  16.5% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 11.7% Green / 4.4% FDP / 20.5% AfD / 8.7% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.7% Others
• 23:10: New projection
  16.5% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 11.8% Green / 4.5% FDP / 20.5% AfD / 8.7% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.5% Others
• 22:28: With the 5% threshold being out of the question, FDP chairman Christian Lindner has said buh-bye to politics. Wolfgang Kubicki also makes his exit.
• 21:46: New projection
  16.5% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 11.9% Green / 4.5% FDP / 20.5% AfD / 8.7% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.4% Others
  114 SPD / 197 CDU/CSU / 82 Green / 141 AfD / 60 Left / 35 BSW / 1 SSW
  120 SPD / 208 CDU/CSU / 87 Green / 150 AfD / 64 Left / 1 SSW <- hypothetical if BSW doesn't make it
• 20:58: New projection
  16.5% SPD / 28.6% CDU / 12.1% Green / 4.7% FDP / 20.5% AfD / 8.7% Left / 5.0% BSW / 3.9% Others
  114 SPD / 197 CDU/CSU / 83 Green / 141 AfD / 60 Left / 34 BSW / 1 SSW
  120 SPD / 209 CDU/CSU / 88 Green / 149 AfD / 63 Left / 1 SSW <- hypothetical if BSW doesn't make it
• 20:12: New projection
  16.4% SPD / 28.4% CDU / 12.2% Green / 4.8% FDP / 20.4% AfD / 8.9% Left / 5.0% BSW / 3.9% Others
  113 SPD / 196 CDU/CSU / 84 Green / 141 AfD / 61 Left / 34 BSW / 1 SSW
  119 SPD / 207 CDU/CSU / 89 Green / 149 AfD / 65 Left / 1 SSW <- hypothetical if BSW don't make it
• 19:30: New projection
  16.3% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 12.4% Green / 4.9% FDP / 20.1% AfD / 8.7% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.1% Others
  112 SPD / 197 CDU/CSU / 86 Green / 139 AfD / 60 Left / 35 BSW / 1 SSW
• 19:00: New projection
  16.3% SPD / 28.4% CDU / 12.4% Green / 5.0% FDP / 20.1% AfD / 8.8% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.0% Others
• 18:53: Highest voter turnout since German Reunification; 83-84%, of more than 59 million people who are eligible to vote. 76.4% in 2021 after a partial re-vote in Berlin.
• 18:51: New projection
  16.3% SPD / 28.6% CDU / 12.4% Green / 5.0% FDP / 20.1% AfD / 8.9% Left / 5.0% BSW / 3.7% Others
  106 SPD / 187 CDU/CSU / 81 Green / 33 FDP / 131 AfD / 58 Left / 33 BSW / 1 SSW
• 18:22: First projection
  16.4% SPD / 28.7% CDU / 12.3% Green / 5.0% FDP / 19.8% AfD / 8.9% Left / 5.0% BSW / 3.9% Others
  107 SPD / 188 CDU/CSU / 81 Green / 33 FDP / 130 AfD / 58 Left / 33 BSW
• 18:15: CSU frontrunner Alexander Dobrindt again emphasizes that there will be no CDU-Green coalition.
  CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP -> 328 seats
  CDU/CSU + SPD + Green -> 374 seats
  CDU/CSU + AfD -> 318 seats
• 18:00: Voting's over.
  16.5% SPD / 28.5% CDU / 12.0% Green / 5.0% FDP / 20.0% AfD / 9.0% Left / 5.0% BSW / 4.0% Others <- first exit poll
  108 SPD / 187 CDU/CSU / 79 Green / 33 FDP / 131 AfD / 59 Left / 33 BSW <- corresponding seats in parliament
• Afternoon: Apollo News reports that Antifa organizations have already announced that they will disturb at the CDU headquarters in Berlin, translated article post <-
• 16:17: @Smyrna claims that the in-person turnout by 14:00 "was 52% - the highest since 1998".
• 15:43: On Xitter I am seeing lots of posts of people claiming to be election helpers and throwing ballots with AfD votes in the trash. It's honestly not clear to me to what extent it's fake, bait, trolling, or sincere virtue signalling.
• 08:00: Voting is now open, until 18:00.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

Starting off the thread with retardation courtesy of Berliner Morgenpost [A] from yesterday 9:45 PM local time, translated by me:

Psychology​

Election Blues: Why there is a thread of a depression after the vote​

A psychotherapist explains why the Bundestagswahl 2025 is a strong emotional burden on voters and what can be done against that.

Hamburg. Hope, tension, frustration: A psychotherapist explains why the Bundestagswahl 2025 could cause emotional burnout for the voters.

Election campaigns stir up hope for a better future and contribute to big expectation. But when the election is over and reality settles in, it is not rare for disillusionment to follow. Psychotherapist and author Mirriam Prieß warns about a possible depression and increasing anxieties after the Bundestagswahl 2025: "I have not seen such an emotional campaigning season before", Prieß explained in a talk with the Katholische Nachrichten-Agentur (KNA). "People could feel burn out after that."

Campaigning seasons are phases of tension. "Normally, tension should be followed up by relaxation", Prieß says. But if this equalization fails to take place, there is a threat of a "mood decline" - especially if voters bind their personal fortune to political promises. From a psychological perspective, what is decisive is how campaigning is being run and how politicians treat each other: "Our mental health depends on us maintaining healthy relationships and facing each other at eye level in an equitable dialogue", Prieß said.

Role model function of politics: Responsibility during times of crisis​

That is why a respectful conduct should also be had in the Bundestag - especially in times of societal uncertainty. That is the only way how crises can be overcome together. But reality paints a different picture: "But in 2025, we saw an exorbitant, highly emotional campaigning season", the psychotherapist emphasizes. That makes it harder for voters to keep emotional distance. "Often, it was not about the substance anymore." Politicians encountered each other in self-aggrandizement - and no longer in respectful dialogue. When politicians no longer uphold human values, this has an effect on the citizens especially in societally unstable phases, Prieß said.

A study published in December 2024 by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) showed increased mental problems for employees under 50 years of age even years after the COVID pandemic. To this day, psychologists observe stronger fears about the future in the population than ahead of the pandemic. According to a current study of the Institute for Demoscopy Allensbach, a majority of the Germans perceive society as polarized and divided in many topics in the year 2024. They fear a danger for democracy. According to current research, young voters are particularly affected.

Young voters in crisis mode: worries, expectations, and fears of the future​

The Institute for Generational Research recently surveyed 16-to-25-year-olds on their needs and worries. The results showed a "generation of fear": In a world of crises and uncertainties, young people are feeling more stressed and pessimistic than earlier generations. First-time voters were particularly worried about their personal wealth and their future perspectives. Only 9.3 percent of the surveyed claimed to be completely worry-free. Every sixth explained that a new election will be the only thing that provides assurance.

According to the study, young people have exceedingly high demands to a future administration. Psychotherapist Prieß therefore recommends examining your own expectations and perceptions. To get out of a depression, it is important to work on conflicts together. "We should encounter people with different opinions with respect and discover commonalities in diversity", the expert recommends. "Frequently, it is the same fears that move us, even if our decisions may turn out to be different." Only that makes compromise possible. That is no different for coalition talks.

 

[Toilet seats vendor]

8 AM to 6 PM

Wait, I thought Germans were the biggest fans of democracy, why are their election booths open for only 10 hours? Even the fascist (PiS) occupied Poland gave their people more time to vote, from 7AM to 9PM

---

Also how did Die Linke manage to make a comeback in the polls in the last month? They barely got in last time because they won 3 consituencies, and now their main voterbase has an alternative in the form of BSW, which managed to beat them in the last Thuringian state elections.

 

[WTBOnlineFather]

Hope, tension, frustration: A psychotherapist explains why the Bundestagswahl 2025 could cause emotional burnout for the voters.

Hmmm, really makes me think! I can't for the life of me figure out why, but I'm sure it has nothing at all to do with the establishment broadcasting to the entire populace every day that the opposition is LITERALLY HITLER and the SPAWN OF SATAN and are out to murder you or something. Nope that can't be it.

 

[Smashed & Slamed]

This is gonna be a repeat of the 1930 elections isn't it. Where the old guards will spend their last political capital on a government that will fuck everything up even more than before and forcing new parties ahead out of desperation.

 

[liam dees]

Nothing ever happens. Or so the Germans would have us believe.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

And a quick one [A] by my boy Danisch, from today 12:26 PM, also translated by me:

Campaigning season​

This campaigning season seemed incredibly stupid to me, as if really every shouting was useful and nothing is too stupid.

​

​

[sign says "ANIMALS AGAINST RIGHT WING"]​

— Fragen? Kérdez? Ask? Domandare? (@g1964g) February 23, 2025​

My promise: I will never agree to a law that makes you poorer. #ThereforeVoteLeft​

​

[image says: "[CDU chairman] Merz is a millionaire. You aren't. Don't forget: Vote The Left today. Every vote counts. Jan van Aken, frontrunner candidate"]​

— Jan van Aken (@jan_vanaken) February 23, 2025​

At the Bundestagswahl on Sunday, it is about you. Your future. It is about a politics that enables a better life for you. Every vote for DIE LINKE is a vote for an affordable and good life.​

​

["I don't want any billionaires in our country, but instead a rent price ceiling." Jan van Aken, frontrunner candidate]​

— Jan van Aken (@jan_vanaken) February 22, 2025​

I see.

"My promise: I will never agree to a law that makes you poorer."​

Rent price limit to the detriment of landlords, completely expropriate billionaires, but "I will never agree to a law that makes you poorer."

And the problem isn't that the campaigning advertisement is so stupid. But that the Germans are so stupid that you can address groups of voters with that.

 

[Karen of Human Resources]

This is gonna be a repeat of the 1930 elections isn't it. Where the old guards will spend their last political capital on a government that will fuck everything up even more than before and forcing new parties ahead out of desperation.

I thought the more votes AfD gets, the faster it would be to resolve.

The others have all made it very clear not letting the AfD have any power comes before any other policy conflicts.

The more votes AfD has, the faster they will back the CDU candidate for Chancellor, assuming they do take the majority share of the votes, and the more likely they will be not to question them too much.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

Xeet by @Kotenok_123 yesterday at 9:59 PM, translated:

I am hoping to see a "2005 face" on you [CDU] tomorrow. Those were funny to see, the CDU faces, when all the polls said 40+ [percent] and then the forecast and the first projections came dripping.

I've indicated it here. Last survey vs. election result.

 

[Smashed & Slamed]

I thought the more votes AfD gets, the faster it would be to resolve.

The others have all made it very clear not letting the AfD have any power comes before any other policy conflicts.

The more votes AfD has, the faster they will back the CDU candidate for Chancellor, assuming they do take the majority share of the votes, and the more likely they will be not to question them too much.

I think that will work. But that will just make the problem worse. These people can get elected and make political dealings all day long. The problem is that they are completely incompetent and will run Germany into the ground in the process. Nobody(AfD included let's be honest) in the current German political climate could make deals with a hostile America, Russia or China or navigate the coming economic crisis that's gonna fuck everything up even more. They have drank their own Kool Aid so much they think AfD will gas them if they get into power, not realizing that if they are in power when this shit collapses they might need to worry about real exectutions not imaginary ones.

 

[Divine right to rule]

This will be the last election cyle where they can govern without the AfD,

 

[Agent Sandoval]

Wait, I thought Germans were the biggest fans of democracy, why are their election booths open for only 10 hours? Even the fascist (PiS) occupied Poland gave their people more time to vote, from 7AM to 9PM

Germans are also really weird and particular when it comes to time. They invented daylight savings time because the German psyche cannot imagine waking up or going to bed an hour later.

 

[BTS4Lyfe]

This will be the last election cyle where they can govern without the AfD,

I'm doing my part.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

For those of us who know zip about how Germany conducts elections can someone explain when to expect results to start coming in? Is there exit polling and the whole breathless media production like the US? When can we laugh in other words?

 

[15 Pounds Uranium-235]

Reminder: Nothing ever happens

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

One more [A] by Danisch, today 1:27 PM

The collapsible ballot boxes of [the state North-Rhine Westphalia]​

Readers ask - Danisch doesn't know either.

A reader asks:

Hello Mr. Danisch,​

​

I wish you a nice Sunday and remain brief.​

Attached is a photo of a ballot box which I was able to see in person this morning.​

I leave the interpretation up to you.​

​

All the best and remain stable​

["Lock can be opened and the 2nd zipper can be opened at the right hand side without damaging the seal" - "Can the floor be opened up there ???"]

I don't know.

"I leave the interpretation up to you."

Boo-hoo-hoo!

What even is that? Is that one of the usual trash can ballot boxes that is wearing a coat so it doesn't feel as cold? Or is there a collapsible garbage bag stand inside? Or simply a cardboard box?

I can't figure out what gives this thing its shape and stability and what's inside it.

If I had to make something up on that, it seems to me like they aren't using sturdy ballot boxes in the shape of trash bags with locks and slots like elsewhere, but something more space-saving, something collapsible like these - do you know the kind? - foldable wardrobes for attics, temporary use, or camping. In the camping gear store, you can find wardrobes and kitchen cabinets that work on that principle: As lightweight as possible wobbly frame with a few insert shelves made of pressed cardboard or something similar, that are then held in shape by stuffing them into a fitted fabric cover, which is then secured with straps and zippers.

It could also be the case that the walls and lid of this thing are sewn into the fabric and it folds down when not in use, by fully unzipping the top and flattening the thing along the outer edges (like a moving box, where the four 90° angles become two 0° and two 180° angles when you flatten it), and the bottom might just be a kind of tension strap that keeps it box-shaped and prevents it from collapsing.

If that's the case, that thing is also sealed incorrectly. The lock should be in the middle, with two seals placed on either side, something the wide adhesive seal areas suggest as well.

That said, a zipper is not a secure thing to begin with. Years ago, there was a video circulating around in which a customs officer showed how easily a locked suitcase can be opened and resealed without touching the lock: Simply push a ballpoint pen into the zipper, then it pops up in the middle and you can pull it apart without using the sliders and also zip it back up again with a bit of fiddling.

You would need to take a look at this thing from the inside. Can't make a proper assessment just from one photo.

 

[Blitzsneed]

For those of us who know zip about how Germany conducts elections can someone explain when to expect results to start coming in?

The first results will be most likely published at 6:30PM CET. Updates will continue over the course of the evening, it's very similar if not identical to the US.

Is there exit polling and the whole breathless media production like the US? When can we laugh in other words?

Official exit polls don't exist (correction by @XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG below) and the media production is not as bombastic as in the US. But the AfD is projected to get big gains in comparison to the last federal election and chimpouts might happen.

 

[XL xQgg?QcQCaTYDMjqoDnYpG]

For those of us who know zip about how Germany conducts elections can someone explain when to expect results to start coming in? Is there exit polling and the whole breathless media production like the US? When can we laugh in other words?

Yeah, I tried to give a brief explanation at the start of OP for readers who know how the US system works, but not how the German one works.

Exit polling and live coverage exist, but generally less dramatic than in the US. Although, with how absolutely heated this one is, it might come closer.
At 6 PM local time, the polls close and the first exit polls are immediately released on TV (public broadcasting, ARD/ZDF). These are usually quite accurate and the first moment to start laughing.
Around 6:15 to 8 PM, the first projections come in as the real vote count starts being integrated, and they get more precise as the night progresses.
Between 10 PM and midnight, a fairly stable official preliminary result is available, based on near-complete counting.

If you're watching for schadenfreude, 6 PM is the moment to tune in.

I'll add that info to OP as well...

 

[EffexorPiss]

I have a bad feeling about this, eurobros. Germany always fucks up and takes the entire continent with them.

 

[i440BX]

I think AFD will be 2nd place. I would like to be mistaken.
On the flipside, letting CDU control Germany will ensure more opposition to establishment in next years.