Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

The issue is that Drone Warfare as we're seeing isn't the future. At least not yet.

The current situation in Ukraine only exists because neither side can gain true air supremacy. Ukraine because of its tiny airforce, Russia because of how utterly packed with AAD Ukraine is (because the Soviets expected it to be a bulwark against NATO. Woops.) and because Russia isn't willing to sacrifice its air deterrent for Ukraine + the fact a "we have more planes than you have missiles" formation of soviet aviation would possibly make Europe concerned enough to do something. Possibly. I mean something other than import another 100 million euros of natural gas

Having dudes in a drone hovel doesn't work so well when your enemy has command of the skies, EMF detection, and the unlimited JDAM cheat unlocked.

USVs have a greater potential to shape conflicts, but you can look at combat data in Ukraine to see the potential doesn't match reality as you can look at what Ukraine tears up, and its almost all old Soviet-era ships. They have managed only a couple of successes against post-soviet designs that were made after Iranian speedboat swarm tactics were "a thing".
 
The issue is that Drone Warfare as we're seeing isn't the future. At least not yet.

The current situation in Ukraine only exists because neither side can gain true air supremacy. Ukraine because of its tiny airforce, Russia because of how utterly packed with AAD Ukraine is (because the Soviets expected it to be a bulwark against NATO. Woops.) and because Russia isn't willing to sacrifice its air deterrent for Ukraine + the fact a "we have more planes than you have missiles" formation of soviet aviation would possibly make Europe concerned enough to do something. Possibly. I mean something other than import another 100 million euros of natural gas

Having dudes in a drone hovel doesn't work so well when your enemy has command of the skies, EMF detection, and the unlimited JDAM cheat unlocked.

USVs have a greater potential to shape conflicts, but you can look at combat data in Ukraine to see the potential doesn't match reality as you can look at what Ukraine tears up, and its almost all old Soviet-era ships. They have managed only a couple of successes against post-soviet designs that were made after Iranian speedboat swarm tactics were "a thing".
Yep, as I've mentioned earlier in this thread, they're basically a form of static artillery (gotta keep in mind that each drone needs one person flying them in real-time, so five drones is five people, 100 drones is 100 people) only really possible because neither side can reliably strike behind enemy lines deep enough and accurately enough to threaten those drone bases... which would not be an issue for the USA, especially since a complete JDAM package, guidance, bomb, and all is only about $30k and Boeing can crank out at least 130 a day no problem according to Wikipedia, making it both essentially unlimited in count and extremely cost effective, especially since a single drone intended for anti-tank use already costs a couple thousand dollars each on account of the heavy payload it needs to heft up to a good speed and range, so even if you only nail a drone storage rack with that 2,000 pounder bomb you've still made your money back.
 
It isn't like NATO would have air supremacy by default. Russia is wholly capable of shooting down a lot more than zero warplanes. Brokedick Serbs shot down a state of the art F-117 back in the Balkans and they did it with a 30 year old Soviet AA battery. Plenty of the planes sent over are gone now. Though most were destroyed while they were on the ground.

The Baryaktar and all of the other fresh new UAV type drones seemingly got blasted out of the sky. Hence why everyone stopped talking about them. The attack helicopter is pretty much DOA now though.

The US and by extension NATO simply cannot suffer losses in any real capacity. This is at an ideological level. If a half dozen warplanes were shot down with actual US pilots in them we would collectively lose our shit. Losing a battalion of infantry is not something today's army could replace in 5 years.

Just the way it is until we have serious leadership making serious decisions.
 
Brokedick Serbs shot down a state of the art F-117 back in the Balkans and they did it with a 30 year old Soviet AA battery.
Yeah, and when you look into exactly how they did it it was a combo of pure luck, insane amounts of pre-planning and forward intel, and the USA being even dumber about our strike package routing than we were in Vietnam. The guy who took the shot wound up later admitting that despite all of the hard work they had put into it the shot itself was a one-in-a-million chance only possible because he caught the plane right at the exact moment it opened its doors.
The attack helicopter is pretty much DOA now though.
Kinda has been for a while to be honest considering its vulnerable as all hell to MANPADS and SPAAG, which is why the USA spent a ton of money on Longbow and its accompanying millimetric radar Hellfires so it can shit on things from cover.
The US and by extension NATO simply cannot suffer losses in any real capacity. This is at an ideological level. If a half dozen warplanes were shot down with actual US pilots in them we would collectively lose our shit. Losing a battalion of infantry is not something today's army could replace in 5 years.

Just the way it is until we have serious leadership making serious decisions.
Yeah, I've got no argument here.
 
Not completely related to this thread but when I read that article, WTF?! It give more weight and ammunition to conspiracy theorists about the Great Replacement and Ukraine isn't spared from this.
Authored by Jack Montgomery via The National Pulse,

Business leaders are calling for as many as eight million non-Western migrants to be transplanted to Ukraine to mitigate the “demographic crisis” created by its three-year war with Russia.

The news vindicates warnings from Raheem Kassam, Editor-in-Chief of The National Pulse, that the conflict would be used as an excuse to transform the country.

All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment chief Vasily Voskoboinik appeared on state television in February to push for mass migration, saying, “According to estimates by the International Organization for Migration”—a United Nations agency that preaches about immigration being “inevitable, desirable, and necessary”—” and the International Labour Organization, we will need 8.2 million workers.”

We have a demographic catastrophe. Either we encourage our women to have more children, which would take 18–20 years to reflect in the labor market, or we must realistically seek labor migration from other countries,” Voskoboinik. He seeks to source the migrants from non-Western states and regions such as Bangladesh, Nepal, India, North Africa, and Central Asia—despite various studies showing that non-Western migrants are a massive net drain on the public finances in other European countries.
I doubt then Zelensky want to use them as cannon fodder...
 
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source
While these services had a liberal left bias, they did fill a pro US space that will now be vacated for dictators and their lies. Cheong and rubbish like beanie boy will benefit as their employer in Moscow will have far less push back.

It's both peculiar and funny that the Director of National Intelligence is retweeting that Russian funded weirdo Ian Miles Cheong. It's surreal, but in context, it's nothing unusual.



Perhaps contrawise registered Republican Professor Gerdes thinks that time is on Ukraine's side. Russia introduces peculiar conditions like wanting civilian peacekeepers, but now Europe is now moving to a war footing in a very definite way, which is to Ukraine's advantage. Trump will be under pressure to move from a mollifying stance to Putin if the Russian dictator remains intransigent. I for one am not so sure. Trump seems poorly informed at times, allows Putin to select the US envoy (Kellogg now just basically doing nothing as envoy to just Ukraine), and seems to accept and also slights like his envoy being kept waiting. Ukraine is both blamed for the war and punished with aid and intel cut off while Putin's terrorism is excused and minimised. Making up thing like a supposed Ukrainian encirclement that Trump is saving them from is also worth noting. There's no encirclement just a very hasty withdrawal with a lot of equipment abandoned. Kursk seemed sensible only a surprise incursion followed by withdrawal with similar assaults and withdrawals. At least the Russians seem unable to push in both Kursk and the east even with Nork aid. A bitch peace with that dictator whose GRU agents commit terror acts throughout Europe and poison the information space, leaving aside terrorism in Ukraine, would be an excruciating error.

The White House believes that US President Donald Trump is determined to end Russia's war against Ukraine, and the world is now "on the 10th yard line" of peace.

Source: European Pravda; Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary, at a briefing on 17 March

Details: Leavitt said, "We are on the 10th yard line of peace, and we have never been closer to a peace deal than we are now in this moment."

"And the president [Trump – ed.], as you know, is determined to get one done," Leavitt added.

Later, the White House spokeswoman, when asked about the possibility of imposing further sanctions on Russia, said that Trump had "floated [this idea] and certainly is willing to if necessary".

At the same time, Leavitt said that she would not "get ahead" of the US president in announcing specific measures.
archive link - Ukrainska Pravda / original link


So often while traveling through the rolling fields and hedge-lined roads of Donbas I think back to my family homeland in Ireland’s oceanside County Kerry. I almost hear the ghosts of my Irish ancestors who fought for freedom themselves. I recall what I have read and heard of Ireland’s own fight against a foreign occupier.

This song, “N17” by the Saw Doctors, is about memories of your favorite road back home. On this St Patrick’s Day, with this poster by Lviv artist @neivanmade, we say, Ireland forever! Erin go bragh! And Slava Ukraiini! Glory to Ukraine!

The poster says in Irish and in Ukrainian: “our home.”

May free people be well-armed with weapons and arguments and courage to defeat degrading tyranny.

Chicago radio man Joe Linsley has lived in Ukraine for much of the war. Here he draws a parallel this St Patrick's Day between Ireland's and Ukraine's struggle.

Not completely related to this thread but when I read that article, WTF?! It give more weight and ammunition to conspiracy theorists about the Great Replacement and Ukraine isn't spared from this.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/corporates-call-8-million-migrants-replace-dead-ukrainians https://web.archive.org/web/20250316151027/https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/corporates-call-8-million-migrants-replace-dead-ukrainians
Zerohedge is only reliable as a reliable peddler of Russian propaganda and rage bait that benefits them. ZH and its Bulgarian fraudster owner are shit.
 
Pretty much almost every American "right-wing" blog is pro Putin and pro Russia, anti-Ukraine, anti-NATO and many also anti-American.* Gateway Pundit and Breitbart are worse than ZH as they're seen as "reputable" and much more traffic to them.

*Those who completely drank the Jim Jones Putin's edition Flavor-Aid and wholeheartedly believe Russian tech, tactics, military, and ad nauseam is superior to Western and American equivalents.
 
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Pretty much almost every American "right-wing" blog is pro Putin and pro Russia, anti-Ukraine, anti-NATO and many also anti-American.* Gateway Pundit and Breitbart worse than ZH as they're seen as "reputable" and much more traffic to them.

*Those who completely drank the Jim Jones Putin's edition Flavor-Aid and wholeheartedly believe Russian tech, tactics, military, and ad nauseam is superior to Western and American equivalents.
Between them and sites like RawStory, DailyKos and the HuffPo, it's like choosing between cholera and gonorrhea as Julian Assange might said. :story:
 
All-Ukrainian Association of Companies for International Employment chief Vasily Voskoboinik
Google just turns up something about an organization that helps Ukrainians get work abroad or maybe worker's rights people within Ukraine. What is this group about and why are people concluding they want to mass import brown people?

Zerohedge is sort of an aggregator for myopic right wing commentators and National Pulse is another commentary site, so this sounds like people reading out of context quotes on social media or telegram and coming to weird conclusions. Or at least that's what my gut tells me until I learn what this group even is.
 
Yeah, and when you look into exactly how they did it it was a combo of pure luck, insane amounts of pre-planning and forward intel, and the USA being even dumber about our strike package routing than we were in Vietnam. The guy who took the shot wound up later admitting that despite all of the hard work they had put into it the shot itself was a one-in-a-million chance only possible because he caught the plane right at the exact moment it opened its doors.
OT but the sheer amount of "needing the enemy to be stupidly complacent/arrogant, needing literally everything to go right, needing a shitload of luck on top of it, and also still having the enemy aircraft successfully engage their targets" behind the F-117 shootdown in Serbia is honestly just proof that stealth technology fucking works moreso than proof that it doesn't.
 
The complacency and arrogance was from the White House, as the USAF remembered very vividly of that exact same shit being done to their pilots along with the Navy's and Marines' pilots back in Vietnam.

Another thing is Clinton's refusal to have the F-117 wreckage "secured" on the account of the stealth tech being obsolescent missed the part of it being true only for the U.S. military. As for the rest of the world, more pertinently Russia and China, it's surely was not obsolescent tech. As it was still better than anything they had at the time.
 
The complacency and arrogance was from the White House, as the USAF remembered very vividly of that exact same shit being done to their pilots along with the Navy's and Marines' pilots back in Vietnam.

Another thing is Clinton's refusal to have the F-117 wreckage "secured" on the account of the stealth tech being obsolescent missed the part of it being true only for the U.S. military. As for the rest of the world, more pertinently Russia and China, it's surely was not obsolescent tech. As it was still better than anything they had at the time.

The stupid bastard wouldn't vet chicom nationals working on the F22 and F35. Most of their new stealth fighter is courtesy of a few hard drives that were spirited out of the US in the hands of those yellow bastards with the Clinton's tacit approval.

Goddamn I hate that arkansas cocksucker and his wife with the intensity of a thousand suns.
 
It isn't like NATO would have air supremacy by default. Russia is wholly capable of shooting down a lot more than zero warplanes. Brokedick Serbs shot down a state of the art F-117 back in the Balkans and they did it with a 30 year old Soviet AA battery. Plenty of the planes sent over are gone now. Though most were destroyed while they were on the ground.
Russia has been forced to replace Moscow's NATO-facing AAD net with Pantsirs on stilts. Which we saw in internal documents has trouble dealing with a F-16 let alone anything more advanced.

Other peopel have covered the F-117 so I'll just add that it was only possible because there was no HARM support package due to weather, and the tricks the Serb commander used would be less effective today because of the modern HARM's ability to track to last-known location. Also the guy in charge of the battery was that 1 in a million RADAR autist.

The Baryaktar and all of the other fresh new UAV type drones seemingly got blasted out of the sky. Hence why everyone stopped talking about them. The attack helicopter is pretty much DOA now though.
I don't think the attack helo is DOA, its currently suffering from failure to adapt being both a #1 target for drones and everything that hits drones also hits them.
Edit: Also not helped by Russia only started with about 100 of their latest model helos, vs the US having a couple thousands. They also aren't very good at attritional warfare, but their ability to soak damage and remain mission-capable means for assaults on hard targets.
Ukraine also lacks modern attack helo and even if they had them they would be prime targets for Russian jets.


As we've seen from video, Rotor wash is a hell of drug for light drones and @Snekposter pointed out its not like the environment isn't already rife with threats. I think we're going to see attack helos come back just packed with more EW and some sort of missile defense. Currently their use, besides rocket-lobs, would be like Russia used them in 2023: quick reaction to armor incursions with stand-off weapons.

The US and by extension NATO simply cannot suffer losses in any real capacity. This is at an ideological level. If a half dozen warplanes were shot down with actual US pilots in them we would collectively lose our shit. Losing a battalion of infantry is not something today's army could replace in 5 years.

Just the way it is until we have serious leadership making serious decisions
THat I can't disagree with you on. The US has more F-16s than Russia has fighters on book, to say nothing of airworthiness or mission capability, but just because Viper pilots could 1v1 the Russian airforce doesn't mean that the US public would swallow the related death toll.

While these services had a liberal left bias, they did fill a pro US space that will now be vacated for dictators and their lies. Cheong and rubbish like beanie boy will benefit as their employer in Moscow will have far less push back.
I think the question will come down to how quickly they can be reconstituted. Trump tried a slow-boil of such institutions in 2016 and didn't work as the ticks just burrowed deeper. Very bad in the short term I agree.

Also "liberal left bias" is a hell of an understatement.

Trump will be under pressure to move from a mollifying stance to Putin if the Russian dictator remains intransigent. I for one am not so sure. Trump seems poorly informed at times, allows Putin to select the US envoy (Kellogg now just basically doing nothing as envoy to just Ukraine), and seems to accept and also slights like his envoy being kept waiting.
Trump is mollifying Russia but also still fucking with them and not giving them their demands nor rolling back sanctions.
So I dunno, trying to act like he's going to give Putin the shop to get the Euros off their ass? Because if so, lol, it seems to be working.

this sounds like people reading out of context quotes on social media or telegram and coming to weird conclusions.
So basically the NYT but they don't have printing presses.

@Fuck It We'll Do It Live
Sounds like that that's the package Scholz spiked in a futile effort to not get wrecked by the AfD finally going through.

Bro I was active duty 82nd Airborne. I spent multiple years in the ME. Nobody in the 82nd was using small tactical drones in the 00's in the entire division. They were in no way part of everyday operations for anything. That is pure fantasy if you think that.

UAV operation was an entirely separate unit and you had to call on them to go fly over and observe whatever it was you were looking for them to do.

If anyone was at all it the usual suspects in SF and such.

I am specifically talking about small tactical level drones and quadcopter and stuff here. I am not talking about the variety of UAV type drones that were everywhere.
Forgot to respond:
I don't know about UAV squad level coverage, but I also care to point out that 3 years ago, Ukraine nor Russia had any of that.

RE: EW systems, I was in a sandy place after Iraqi Combat operations had wound down. I had occassion to share a shift a guy who talked to outer space and knew much more about the maths of such things than I did. We talked a lot about the EW stuff that kept anyone from getting a UAV like the ones we using to drop hellfires within anything close to where were were, and told me with some equation, that any attempts to operated unwanted UAVs near by would need 4-5x the transmit power of the EW system to overcome the effects because it could could sniff, analyze and in less than a minute figure out exactly what waves map to datapackets and what datapackets to fuck with to make it drop connection and put a hostile UAV into an endless "trying to reconnect" spirals. He said it would also do fun things to anyone trying to find the base via standard GPS.

He showed me when I went to lunch and took my phone of the locker and to the DAFC, he was able to shut down it down and no one else's.
 
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Why can’t we just have a sensible, logical leader that doesn’t swing far left or right?

It’s either you are conservative and thus a nazi and want all trannies and niggers dead or you’re a lefty who has autism, non-binary fag.

I do wonder when we will hear about the ceasefire conditions though, Trump has a very hard time because he doesn’t want to look weak (kinda too late), and if they give Russia everything they want that will give China more confidence.

I really don’t buy into the America pulling Russia from Chinas influence. I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the left-wing anti-trump social media stuff is spawning from China.

Russia hates democrats because they dont want them involved in Europe and China hates ..everyone?
 
RE: EW systems, I was in a sandy place after Iraqi Combat operations had wound down. I had occassion to share a shift a guy who talked to outer space and knew much more about the maths of such things than I did. We talked a lot about the EW stuff that kept anyone from getting a UAV like the ones we using to drop hellfires within anything close to where were were, and told me with some equation, that any attempts to operated unwanted UAVs near by would need 4-5x the transmit power of the EW system to overcome the effects because it could could sniff, analyze and in less than a minute figure out exactly what waves map to datapackets and what datapackets to fuck with to make it drop connection and put a hostile UAV into an endless "trying to reconnect" spirals. He said it would also do fun things to anyone trying to find the base via standard GPS.

This sounds like an expert with a lot of stuff in his personal radio shack to mess around with. The regular operating soldier wont have that and will have to trust an EW net set by the experts. This requires the tactical level leadership to know very well its boundaries and capabilities so they can stay inside it. I am pretty sure I saw a video in here of a Russian EW guy dicking around with a bunch of frequency tools to do some kind of calibrating. Point being here is that this is beyond the average rank and file soldier.

The average soldier will have the Warlock device or it's 2025 equivalent. The operator level knowledge of this device is really limited to diagnosing whether its turned on or turned off. It had no settings or configurations available to the end user. The Warlock in the 00s did not block cell phones at all. Even local Iraqi cell phones, nor did it block our radios or civilian walkie talkies the Iraqi police used. The cell phone jammers of that time were the size of a big rolling luggage and did have settings you could interface with. This was done on one level by the SIGINT end users and another by the DOD contractors with deeper understanding of how they were supposed to work.

Since you spent time there you would know but to others in this thread you had employees of war services and defense industry vendors onsite to troubleshoot and support whatever tool or bullshit you were using. It was kind of odd.

Don't worry: the USA learns damn fast when the pressure is on. During the US Civil War and later on WW2 we managed to go from a tiny army with out of date drill and doctrine that was mostly there just to have one to a full-on modern force equal or beyond anything in Europe.
Society has to be primed for this. Once Pearl Harbor happened you had no shortage of volunteers into all the services. On top of that there was a draft/conscription/mobilization system that the population supported rather than resisted. WW2 America might as well be a different planet than 2025 America and looking back and thinking things will be just like that today is really foolish. It's hard to take anyone seriously when they put forward nonsense like that.

The Vietnam era effectively killed the idea of civic duty in the US and it was a small conflict by US measure. Korea had more KIA and much faster than Vietnam did. A draft in the USA today is political suicide and will never happen. Society will resist it far more than they did even during Vietnam. Especially for yet another esoteric conflict in the ass end of the Europe. As someone who volunteered his time to the Army and spent two years in a dumbass conflict in the ME I would advise any young man to stay away from going to fight in Europe unless you were in dire straits and just needed an exit from whatever shitty home situation you had. Much like myself I guess!

For the USMIL recruitment is in the toilet and forced service is de facto impossible. In addition to the Western services being obsessed with Force Protection and unable to suffer losses. These are insurmountable headwinds for our armed forces unless radical changes are presented throughout the West. Serious decisions by serious people. But we are led by clowns.

If you take even the most conservative estimates. Numbers don't really matter but suppose Ukraine only lost 100k soldiers and Russia lost 500k. Losing 100k US soldiers today would be losing 25% of our entire armed forces in 2025 and again 25% of what we lost in WW2 when society was totally primed to serve and fight. Ergo Vietnam and Korea combined were total pussy shit compared to this conflict.
 
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