Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

There was an explosion at the ammunition depot of Engels air base, which is the home of strategic bombers.
Best part, this doesn't violate the ceasefire because its a military target and Russia was only interested in a limited ceasefire that it immediately violated.

Russia declares a state of emergency.

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Remember when ziggers claimed that Russian AD was the best in the world, and that it would render even advanced shit like the F-35 irrelevant? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I mean jesus, just imagine Ukrainians drones had actually managed to hit the airbase instead of just some debris from inceptions.

A certain Eastern Euro happening in
Feb '22 likely had a bigger impact. Trump's language did provide a needed frightener tho. Rheinmetall needd to send The Donald a golden than youcard. Still better language would be wiser. It doesn't need to be Bush snr stiff, but it's bad for non Rheinmetall / Politico general economic biz.
I mean sort of. Budget increases were modest if they came about at all. Again, this should have been done in 2014, at the latest by 2022 and its an absolute embarrassment its only happening NOW.
I don't like the way Trump is going about it, but I guess I put just as much blame on the (non-baltic) EU nations for letting it get to this point when they've been asked nicely for decades.

But I guess you just sort of prove the point: Trump uses Putin as the whip to get the Euros to actually arm up.

Macron does talk a very big game, but at least France has an independent nuclear deterrent (c 300 devices) and a working nuclear powered aircraft carrier. It's army has 270,000 active personnel (compared to > 180k of UK Forces) and 60,000 reserves, excluding gendarmarie and an expeditionary capability. Taken with Poland, this could be the basis (with a lot of actual work) for a more self reliant European security system. Basically, they (Western Euros) at least have to reach Cold War levels (pre Clinton 'peace dividend) to show seriousness. Macron too has a gilded palace, pomp and the lordly ways that Trump likes.
All very true and the Rafale is by all accounts a very good jet - If you discount the radar cross section (I hate using the term "stealth" for the F-35) it would make a lot more sense for the EU than the F-35 if they could actually scale production.

France's force projection ability is a little questionable though. Its all light infantry/paratroops with limited airlift support for armor because they haven't needed it. Naval forces are unlikely to come into play though they have a carrier. They have a tank force of about 250 with 200 more in reserve and no new hulls in almost 20 years so their armor is extremely lacking. Which for all the talk about "the tank being obsolete" both sides keep sending more to the battlefield.

More important is that they actually forward deploy the Legion on a regular basis so they will have experience even if its not the Trench Warfare + Drones that's immediately applicable.

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Fake, gay and inaccurate: that russian tank still has its turret attached. It should be laying 30 meters away.

Can wait to see AI capable landmines that can chase down and kamikaze personnel based on their uniforms or even voices.
AI capable nothing. They just make some dummies that look like a supple Moblik bussy and the trad Russian armed forces will be decimated in minutes.
 
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:optimistic: Look at what happened with Gen. Mattis for just one example. Trump not only fires anyone who tells him "no", but also who tell him, "yes, but..."


Back to Ukraine, any news on the incursion into Belgorod? It appears to be a limited one to get the troops at Kursk salient out safely, from what Dennis has said. It's weird it hasn't been mentioned more in more channels.

Ukraine destroyed 'a command post of the Third Motor Rifle Division of the 20th Army of the Russian Armed Forces near the village of Demidovka in Russia's Belgorod Oblast on March 18'.


It follows a Russian claim they foiled a Ukrainian incursion in the Belgorod sector. Ukraine has launched incursions some time ago. Their Russian volunteers were apparently involved. I think it was basically then a raid.
 
Back to Ukraine, any news on the incursion into Belgorod? It appears to be a limited one to get the troops at Kursk salient out safely, from what Dennis has said. It's weird it hasn't been mentioned more in more channels.
From what I've seen, it's a repeat of the suicidal Russian Legion attacks. So far a bunch of very valuable vehicles and soldiers were lost with nothing to show for it.
I don't get what the idea is, there's no way to penetrate the Russian lines there and it's only 15-25km south of the Kursk incursion, where there's still large Russian formations, some of the best they have.
Keep in mind that the main Russian defensive line (the thick grey line in this) is some distance behind the border villages, and Ukrainians failed to penetrate it in Kursk after the surprise wore off, despite having more resources available back then.
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It follows a Russian claim they foiled a Ukrainian incursion in the Belgorod sector.
That's probably not wrong. When Kursk happened, there were immediately reports all over telegram, because something happened there. I think there's not much coverage of this, because nothing was accomplished.


While its one way to put the frighteners into Western Europe, and so get it to rearm, it's also disrespectful.
If someone told you the Mexican cartels are doing what they do in order to increase funding for law-enforcement and improve the quality of background checks for government work, you would dismiss that as laughably absurd, and you should treat claims about Trump's action being some gambit to make NATO countries increase defense spending the same way.

Trump has an intense dislike for Ukraine and the EU, and Canada too. He doesn't care about NATO. He thinks Putin is a good friend and trustworthy partner of the US. As a result, he acts the way he does, and former American allies respond to the change in geopolitical landscape.
Everything else is slash fiction.
 
Imagine a quadcopter collapsed in a small tube using a network of either cameras of buried microphones to detect movement then fly out and inspect whatever is moving for enemy camo pattern or something. Terrifying.
That’s almost already a thing, I’ve read it ITT.. Some type of top attack anti tank mine that uses signal processing to specifically recognize Russian tank engines.
 
Sudzha gas pipeline got ACK'D:

So far a bunch of very valuable vehicles and soldiers were lost with nothing to show for it.
Kursk August 2024 looked like that initially, with Ziggers XAXAXAing over the same Bradley or MRAP getting destroyed. Once the fog of war is lifted, OSINT will show if the UAF can create a meaningful buffer zone.
 
That’s almost already a thing, I’ve read it ITT.. Some type of top attack anti tank mine that uses signal processing to specifically recognize Russian tank engines.
I think you're conflating two systems and adding a possible method of action of the third.

There was an anti-tank Russian acoustic mine of limited proven utility that Russia claims is able to tell the difference between cars and tanks, and russian tanks and NATO tanks.
There's limited info and most of the capabilities are speculated based off the M93 Hornet which is nearly identical. IIRC the actual mechanism of action was waiting for a big enough diesel engine to come close enough to shake the seisometer.

There is also a Russian anti-personnel mine the POM-3 that claims to be able to signal process human footsteps.
(and to be able to tell civilian and soldier foot steps apart; lol)
There was also a "networked" version of I think this mine I can't find the video on now (90% sure posted in this thread) where the "base" was suppose to ID the 2nd person to come into range before detonating and then the other mines would sleep who hold on detonation for a couple minutes then explode so they'd get anyone running to help.

It is speculated that the Lancet loitering muntion (and possibly the swtich blade as well) might use acoustics to tack targets in the terminal phase.

. What Dassault Rafale offers, Saab's Gripen series are just some possibilities if POTUS is perceived as erratic. The Gripen scored well when Canada was assessing new combat aircraft (that took nearly 30 years, maybe Maple syrup slows em down a bit), a decision which ended with choosing the F-35. Maybe Trump will have to order Vance / Bowman / whatever he's called to wear a dress again to assuage liberal Canadian anger.
the F-35 makes more sense for Canada being they don't need to pay Ocean freight and the odds that they might need to respond to a Chinese/Russian incursion - sort of the same reasoning you never saw Canuck Typhoons. Additionally the UK is stuck with the F-35 (but doesn't seem to mind beause they aren't repeating fake memes about a killswitch) so you have commonwealth interoperability to think about.
The Gripen and Rafale only work from a operational costs perspective - which if Canada was worried about costs, they should just go the Mexico route of "Fuck it, the US is right there".

I heard on the internet the Trump plan for Canada is to send someone over in Blackface to get elected and then ruin Canada's economy and national unity by importing tons of foreigners. We'll have to watch and see how that plays out.

If someone told you the Mexican cartels are doing what they do in order to increase funding for law-enforcement and improve the quality of background checks for government work, you would dismiss that as laughably absurd, and you should treat claims about Trump's action being some gambit to make NATO countries increase defense spending the same way.
The Mexican Cartels have not been demanding for decades that US law enforcement up its spend to meet treaty obligactions. US Law enforcement also didn't import a over a trillion dollars of Cuban Cocaine while laughing at the Zeta's head when he warned them against such action. And then the Fidel Cartel begins a street war in Jamaica US law enforcement didn't continue to import nearly a 100 billion in Cuban cocaine a year for the next three years.

What the TDS infection ward can't seem to get around is:
Trump very clearly gives no fucks what the Eurocuck "allies" think as they continue to fund Russia. He sent Vance to shit on them on their own turf, has called them faggots to their faces, their armies are jokes.

So if Trump is a Putin stooge as the TDS brainrots repeat with no variation, and is completely dead set on pulling out of NATO, why not just roll up day-1 and cancel sanctions? Whay make the pretense of humoring them? Europe very clearly can't get enough cheap energy, their banking sanctions would only be limited to EU banks, there's no reason to go through the shadow boxing and risk European rearmament.
Trump could have non-Autopen signed an EO dropping all sanctions 5 minutes after taking the oath of office sidelining all aid, and Europe couldn't have done a damn thing other than cope, seethe and dilate. And after about a month of seethe and performative action the EU would have been be right back to importing their 100+ billion of Russian gas again, just with more blind dodges.
So why continue the charade? Why bother turning Ukraine aid & intel back on if Trump is just going to sign the country over to Putin?

Or maybe Trump has a boogey man he can use to get the EU to actually hit their GDP targets like they've all now pledged to do after ignoring decades of polite requests, even ones from their favorite person of all time, Obama? Maybe Trump can nicetweet about Putin, talk about leaving NATO and only now all this stuff they've been warned about actually a problem requiring action other than trying to figure out they can skirt sanctions.

Its all just TDS and Eurocuck deflection from the fact they were and are the #1 funder of Russia. They demand the US do more as they send to Russia nearly triple the value of the aid they sent to Ukraine. This war was only possible because of equipment bought with European funds, Russian economy only has been able to continue through three years of war because they are still importing tens of billions, Russian baltic access is still unrestricted. But the Euro Leaders can do no wrong.
And most the Euro contingent around here still refuse to acknowledge this, and instead continue on with Orange Man Bad.
 
There was an anti-tank Russian acoustic mine of limited proven utility that Russia claims is able to tell the difference between cars and tanks, and russian tanks and NATO tanks.
https://armamentresearch.com/russian-ptkm-1r-top-attack-anti-vehicle-mine-documented-in-ukraine-2022/ There's limited info and most of the capabilities are speculated based off the M93 Hornet which is nearly identical. IIRC the actual mechanism of action was waiting for a big enough diesel engine to come close enough to shake the seisometer.
That's a fascinating concept but it seems like a recipe for disaster, I mean I certainly wouldn't volunteer to drive over it in a car. I'm going to assume that it most likely didn't work as intended or did so only occasionally like many other Russian Wunderwaffe. That type of shit really reminds me of back in the 90s and '00s when every couple years some shit that was going to "revolutionize warfare" was absolutely right on the cusp and surprise, here we are in 2025 and all of those projects failed or found only very niche uses. It's neat to think about and worth experimenting with I suppose, I thought the fucking XM8 or the XM29 OICW looked cool as shit when I was younger, but nothing ever came of either. I've also been hearing for a decade that guided [small arms] projectiles are the future but thus far it seems there's been no real progress on it.

They are neat looking though:

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XM29 OICW

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XM8

Then it turns out that the humble fucking quadcopter drone that was largely used as a children's toy or for surveying powerlines/aerial photography came out of nowhere and genuinely did revolutionize modern combat. Although I guess Malaysian spec op guys are apparently using the XM8 to this day, but that's a far cry from the intent of the program.
 
That's a fascinating concept but it seems like a recipe for disaster, I mean I certainly wouldn't volunteer to drive over it in a car. I'm going to assume that it most likely didn't work as intended or did so only occasionally like many other Russian Wunderwaffe. That type of shit really reminds me of back in the 90s and '00s when every couple years some shit that was going to "revolutionize warfare" was absolutely right on the cusp and surprise, here we are in 2025 and all of those projects failed or found only very niche uses. It's neat to think about and worth experimenting with I suppose, I thought the fucking XM8 or the XM29 OICW looked cool as shit when I was younger, but nothing ever came of either. I've also been hearing for a decade that guided [small arms] projectiles are the future but thus far it seems there's been no real progress on it.

to tl;dr, its actually not too far of a stretch to make a mine that would ignore a car but would pop on a tank. Think of the difference between a car and semi starting through a stoplight. You use the multiple microphones to get a range for when the top-down charge pops up. The issue is filtering out unwanted input, especially in middle of a warzone, and also - for a top-down muntion - estmating speed such you hit your target and not the ground.

The PTKM is also going to be of limited utility because both Russia and Ukraine use a lot of the same soviet-pattern equipment.
i.e. I think on weapons range or even a NATO-WARPACT stand off border I think they might work, but no in the middle of WWI with the DronePilot Add-on DLC.

Add to that the increased use of non-AFVs in operations; its not too steep of a task to trigger on a 35-ton tank and not a 1-ton car, but getting a Humvee while not popping on civilian vehicles would be a steeper ask, to say nothing of going for a Hilux.

Speaking of the OICW, everyone i knew who used them in anger said the XM25 was really good, just it was a little heavy, you needed stupid moon batteries, and towards the end sourcing ammo was difficult.
 
Speaking of the OICW, everyone i knew who used them in anger said the XM25 was really good, just it was a little heavy, you needed stupid moon batteries, and towards the end sourcing ammo was difficult
Heard the same thing. Apparently when it was shortly used in Afghanistan every grenade had to be assembled and fitted by hand, which would have switched to machine assembled if it was adopted, but was considered a point against it due to the high costs and limited availability. Total shame.
 
Macron's brave, big boy talk about troops in Ukraine seems to have collapsed to the cuckoldry of UN Peacekeepers for Ukraine. Apparently Antonio Guterres, the UN Sec Gen was at this EU Summit and he'd be glad to facilitate his pal Putin. UN Peacekeepers have a very mixed record. Srebrenica is an example of their performance from the region. The main EU leaders seem very wary of sending their own to Ukraine. Perhaps the strategy is to kill Putin by making him laugh too hard. Trump's idea that US workers and security as a security guarantee of sorts isn't too strong, given that Putin could give the US access to occupied territory (and the US is afraid to do much unless Israel is in danger), but Macron doesn't impress when it comes to cold, hard reality. He's even too afraid to sort out pro Russian dictators who overthrow French aligned governments in Francophone West Africa with a smart deployment of the Foreign Legion, something his predecessors had no fear doing.

archive - Daily Telegraph / original (subscription needed)
 
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Its all just TDS and Eurocuck deflection from the fact they were and are the #1 funder of Russia. They demand the US do more as they send to Russia nearly triple the value of the aid they sent to Ukraine. This war was only possible because of equipment bought with European funds, Russian economy only has been able to continue through three years of war because they are still importing tens of billions, Russian baltic access is still unrestricted. But the Euro Leaders can do no wrong.
And most the Euro contingent around here still refuse to acknowledge this, and instead continue on with Orange Man Bad.

If you believe the economists and finance people talking about the conflict the EU desperately needs to succeed in Ukraine. Success being measured in how much the Western nations can successfully take out of Ukraine. Much like in prior centuries conquest was the surefire way to inject new capital into your markets. Russian sanctions have had an inverse effect on the EU not only due to the inability of buying cheap Russian energy but the novel strategy of simply seizing Russian sovereign assets abroad has had huge implications in the global markets.

One of those being London losing its 200+ year monopoly on insurance and aspects of the shipping trade. While I understand that West Europe has devolved into a service economy much like the US. I don't really understand what would truly happen if the London finance market just kind of imploded. The UK is already the champion when it comes to speedrunning the destruction of a centuries old empire. A hundred years ago today the UK had the largest and most dominant naval fleet in the world.

That’s almost already a thing, I’ve read it ITT.. Some type of top attack anti tank mine that uses signal processing to specifically recognize Russian tank engines.
I mean that shouldn't be too far outside the realm of possibility I guess.

All of the Russian tanks are considerably lighter than NATO tanks and share a few key differences that NATO tanks lack. Every model of Russian tank has wider tracks, lower weight, and a low profile compared to NATO tanks. This is because the Soviets and later the Russian Federation favored firepower over armor and they always had a strict weight limit. As they were all designed with the presumption of being used on the East European steppe.

Not sure how much I believe it but I had always heard that the Abrams itself was designed the way it is in response to the Soviet development of the Sabor round (not sure of exact name). Which gave the Soviet tanks a large boost in main cannon power. To combat this the US adopted the design philosophy of super thick armor on everything in comparison to the generation of mechanized combat vehicles prior to that.
 
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BREAKING: Putin signs decree ordering all Ukrainians to either obtain Russian citizenship or leave the occupied territories by September 10th.
Visegrad is a fake news account, you shouldn't follow them or believe anything they post, even though sometimes they report true things, like here.
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I think Putin wants to finalize the annexation of the occupied territories to create a reality on the ground that his servants in the US government can use to present territorial concessions as a "common sense" nothingburger that doesn't require the Russians to give anything in return for their claim being accepted, similar to all the other Russian demands that Trump surrendered to without question or compensation.
After all, if everyone living there is a Russian citizen, how can the Ukrainian government claim to represent their interests against the Russian government?

Many people don't want to leave, because the Russian government steals the property of refugees (land, houses, personal possessions, etc) and resells it for profit of cronies.


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Allegedly the oil is worth about 40m euros.


Another means through which Trump's pro-Russian MAGA movement aids the Russian government is that their slavish submission to Putin creates confidence in a profitable (for Russia) end to the war, which makes it significantly cheaper for the Russians to borrow money.
The yearly yield for OFZ bonds was 17.4% in early February, now it is down to 14.5%.

Kursk Offensive - A Preliminary Assessment​

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