US US Politics General 2 - Discussion of President Trump and other politicians

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Should be a wild four years.

Helpful links for those who need them:

Current members of the House of Representatives
https://www.house.gov/representatives

Current members of the Senate
https://www.senate.gov/senators/

Current members of the US Supreme Court
https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/biographies.aspx

Members of the Trump Administration
https://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/
 
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Intuitively, your assumptions make sense but like I said earlier in the thread: I'd like to retain what little hope I have for the future and not give into the urge to doompost about the future. Perhaps my hopes and optimism will be crushed and I'll be firmly reacquainted with the taste of boot come 2026 or 2028, but for now, I'm optimistic about the short-to-mid term future (i.e. present day through 2026).
 
Turns out nearly everyone who is going to stay home unless Trump cuts off Israel amounts to probably around 500 votes in the entire country.
Maybe so, but then maybe you could make a media topic out of how many billions of dollars the US sends to Israel every year, how much of the budget that number is, how that maps per taxpayer every year, and what exactly the US gets out of it.

People hated how much money went to Ukraine, so You *could* make a media topic out of it, RIGHT?
 
In their ideal world, a bunch of rural retards come out to vote for anyone who puts on a Donald Trump mask, that candidate wins, and then they (the candidate) just does everything Bush or Cheney would have.
I agree in general, but part of the issue is that that Trump is effectively such a non-person to the establishment, media, and judiciary, that even trying to softly align with him is bound to end up fucking future Republicans over if they're cucks. Thus we have two options, either a continued recalibration of younger voters and politicians from them (like Vance is shaping up to be) that will exercise more Nationalistic policies (assuming they're successful now), or you have an even more dangerous party split, one that Trump has been using anyways with easing more and more loyalists into the RNC and damning the consequences.

The older RNC are fucked anyways, very few actually live among the completely complacent, and plenty will now have to compete with the Trump Old Liberal + New Conservative alliance which has/is adopting the most effective rhetoric and 80/20s from both sides. This is why they're so afraid of Elon as well, since he can and will primary those fuckers for the first time in decades just for the lols, and has the money to do that nationally.

At this point, the only way to kill this idea is by it's governors killing it themselves. If Trump is successful, the political landscape changes extensively. If he is not, things will ease back towards the normative Neocons/Liberal split.
 
The future of Republican candidates is very likely going to be a bunch of bog-standard politicians who go "Remember Trump?" but have no intention whatsoever of replicating his political views nor continuing his line of political theory.

Trump is truly Reagan's heir, confirmed.
 
That's assuming that trumps successors don't win more terms, or also that it's more stable to be in this flux vs just having tariff free simple domestic manufacturing.
Recent elections in Florida had republicans underperforming, and they got destroyed in the special election in Wisconsin despite record spending from Elon Musk.

it's an assumption, yes, but also a probable one:

1. Republican voter turnout has dropped in these elections compared to in 2024; they've gotten complacent since the presidential win
2. Dems are more energized than ever and are overperforming in many districts; they're protesting and holding rallies like they're life depends on it, boosting their base even more while the MAGA movement slowly weakens
3. Republicans barely have a majority in the House and Senate, its so tight that Trump had to recall his UN nominee because he didn't want to risk losing a seat to a dem.
there is one way to fix this.

Trump Fuhrer.
MAGA not beating the cult allegations anytime soon :lossmanjack:
But if you make it in the US it can't be tariffed in the US, and that's a certainty.
Yes, but at what cost? the cost difference between US and foreign manufacturing is substantial, for more than just whatever trumps tariffs would be on imports. Energy costs, labor costs, raw materials- these would all eat away at a business's profits, some businesses fundamentally unprofitable due to how they've been designing their systems for the past 30-40 years.

This also ignores the bigger picture, the U.S. currently doesn't have the infrastructure or workforce to support large-scale manufacturing like it did in the 1900s. its not like we just offshored factories; we outsourced skill-trained labor, logistics networks, and mineral processing. stuff like steel, aluminum, semiconductors, etc aren't just going to reappear within a couple of years - it'll take decades.

and if tariffs just disappear, companies that rushed to build all of these things in the U.S. would be at a competitive disadvantage against imports. making it likely for outsourcing to happen again.
 
At this point, the only way to kill this idea is by it's governors killing it themselves. If Trump is successful, the political landscape changes extensively. If he is not, things will ease back towards the normative Neocons/Liberal split.
My honest opinion relates to what I mentioned earlier, about it being a Big Club. Will these nationalist policies directly translate to profitable arrangements if you're in the Club and trying to maintain or grow your wealth? It's possible, if this tariff thing pays off and the manufacturing sector is resurrected in the United States. I don't actually know how this can be done. You need to not only make domestic production profitable but increasingly profitable since that's what politicians will be looking for above all else, as well as anyone looking to make friends with politicians. Places like China outright steal manufacturing schematics to make them 'in-house', because their government owns all private industry and this theft directly benefits said government, yet even that wasn't enough to make Americans dial back their reliance on China because nothing is more appealing to the wealthy than slave labor.

The potential for someone to stab Trump in the back and revert these nationalist ideas is unfortunately pretty high, especially with how uncertain this return to domestic manufacturing actually is. I'm not talking about a glut of new factory work alongside stricter immigration laws; those would absolutely benefit the population. But nobody in American politics is there to help the population, they're there to make money. To not dismiss the population completely, I can also see people deciding "Why would I base my livelihood on something that was destroyed and created the Rust Belt?"
 
Wisconsin is one of those hicklib states that has California's politics despite being mostly rural and white. I don't know if it's the best example to model Republican performance since they almost always do shit there.
The Democrat backed candidate won the election by about 10 percentage points, about 0.5 percentage points closer than the 2020 election and 1 point closer than the 2023 election. It's strange people made such a big deal about it when recent voting pattern data shows the liberal had a high chance of easily winning.
 
The Democrat backed candidate won the election by about 10 percentage points, about 0.5 percentage points closer than the 2020 election and 1 point closer than the 2023 election. It's strange people made such a big deal about it when recent voting pattern data shows the liberal had a high chance of easily winning.
Bingo, it's like being surprised that the Democrat won in LA or Portland.
 
How hard do you think it is to buy an injection molding machine or a CNC mill? Most Chinese-made goods are simple things that a small shop can make.

A small shop can make a car. When a small shop makes a car, amortizing the R&D cost means that car has a sticker price of $250,000. It actually does not cost Ferrari 10x more to actually manufacture a car than it costs Chevrolet, but it costs them every bit as much, if not more, to design the car and its fabrication process. Economies of scale allow you to dilute fixed costs across more units.
 
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