Trade War 2025 - You get tariffs and you get tariffs, tariffs for everyone!

[Flaming Carrot]

My current theory is that Trump(/his administration) is trying to address legitimate grievances, doesn't believe Congress is capable of moving on these grievances (much less across a multi-election cycle timeframe), and so is trying to accelerate the final crisis right now, from the Executive branch, while he's at the peak of his power. If they get to bully other countries into dropping their tariffs and get to refinance the debt at lower rates then all the better.

I agree on the Congressional point. They've had 30 years to do something about the gutting of America's industrial base and have failed spectacularly. There's no evidence of a broad, nonpartisan political will to execute an onshoring agenda over the span of 10-15 years.

All of this is happening against a backdrop of waning American power, which is independent of any particular administration. I just think it's far too much and too quickly, and far too late.

I think the biggest problem is that Donald Trump and his allies have differing justifications for what they're doing depending on the hour of the day and who's asking, and all the justifications contradict each other. The arguments as I understand them as the following -

1. The tariffs are a way to produce revenue and will eventually be used to replace the income tax. Of course, before income tax the government was a lot smaller and did much less, but fine, let's say they generate revenue this way. the tariffs would have to be small because otherwise people would buying domestic items that don't have the tariffs.

2. The tariffs are intended to protect American industry and building up American manufacturing. Even though we're wealthy and the rest of the world are impoverished shitholes and Europoors, they're taking advantage of us and ruining our country which by the way is so incredibly wealthy we should absorb Canada as a 51st state. So, the tariffs will be incredibly high, which means everyone will buy American. But we won't get as much revenue from the tariffs, so I guess we're sticking with income taxes.

3. There's an exciting third argument which argues this is Donald Trump's Art of the Deal 4d chess move to get other countries to lower their tariffs. He didn't like NAFTA, which lowered tariffs and he didn't like the Trans Pacific Partnership, which lowered tariffs, but now by raising tariffs he will get free trade agreements with other countries., then I guess the tariffs go away.

4. There is still another arguments that the tariff rate has nothing to do the tariffs other countries have and are instead punishment with having a trade deficit for the U.S. So because Bangladesh is poorer than us and doesn't buy as many things from the US, they are somehow beating us even though we're rich and they're poor. Therefore tariffs will stay until poor countries buy as much from us as we buy from them,, although if they become wealthy enough to do that, it means they're cheating and the tariffs stay in place.

I think people can sincerely believe in one of these arguments but can't believe in all of them. I saw signs in my area before the election that read "Kamala - high prices/Trump - low prices." Donald trump won the election largely because people were upset about high prices. The only thing I can think of where the price has started going down is eggs, and we achieved that by importing eggs from overseas

https://www.ft.com/content/d4e560a9-6e1f-4e2e-8313-daad994d841a

https://archive.is/6HZ6X

Telling people that they don't pay enough money for things is not a winning strategy. If he crashes the stock market on purpose, he will get impeached again, and this time the Republicans will go along with it.

 

[Crocodylus Acutus]

>"Trade War 2025" thread
>look inside
>europoors are frothing at their imminent buck breaking


Carry on, eurofags, carry on.

 

[Starved Artist]

I was expecting a trade war. Not complete economic suicide. America is nothing but consooomers with no way to create our own shit without another country in the supply line.
Retards really think " open a new factory in a month or three" is an option for the USA, it's an option for China or Mexico or Vietnam. We don't have facilities just sitting around ready to switch gears and start pumping out another product. I mean we produce all the rubber car mats you'd ever need, proudly made in the USA! But we can't even make lightbulbs on our own and the three guys who fabricate lightbulbs exclusively in the US are hilariously expensive.

 

[Buck Broken Chimp]

I think the biggest problem is that Donald Trump and his allies have differing justifications for what they're doing depending on the hour of the day and who's asking, and all the justifications contradict each other. The arguments as I understand them as the following -

Exactly, The justification for the tariffs is incoherent and lacks a plan

First Trump said they were to get other countries to remove tariffs

Then he said it was to lower trade deficits

Then he said they were never going away and it was to get manufacturing back to the US forever

Lastly he has said it was for various grievances like Canada not doing enough to stop drugs from crossing their border.

 

[Drag-on Knight 91873]

I was expecting a trade war. Not complete economic suicide. America is nothing but consooomers with no way to create our own shit without another country in the supply line.
Retards really think " open a new factory in a month or three" is an option for the USA, it's an option for China or Mexico or Vietnam. We don't have facilities just sitting around ready to switch gears and start pumping out another product. I mean we produce all the rubber car mats you'd ever need, proudly made in the USA! But we can't even make lightbulbs on our own and the three guys who fabricate lightbulbs exclusively in the US are hilariously expensive.

It could be if State regulators and EPA were brought to heel. As well as sorting out the hiring crisis so it actually works at hiring and training people how to do very specific jobs instead of the Kafka trap that it is where you have to give out personal information for companies to then sell to spam companies. I don't see that happening though, which is why I getting increasingly leery of the Trump fans. They're acting like the Ukrainians do with their Russia Derangement syndrome.

 

[Platonic Cat Lover]

The economy is fake and gay anyway. Anything that makes Canada suffer is worth it a million times over.

Fuck off. We put up with enough of your bullshit and suffered enough. We can have economies that are mutually beneficial, not this lose/lose crap.

Cunt

 

[Rungle]

All nintendo fags are suddenly economy experts because they see that their new bing bing wahoo machine is very expensive.
I suspect they will make a nintendo labo(tm) cardboard gun and try to assassinate trump.
goodluck poor nintendo niggas.

 

[WelperHelper99]

All nintendo fags are suddenly economy experts because they see that their new bing bing wahoo machine is very expensive.
I suspect they will make a nintendo labo(tm) cardboard gun and try to assassinate trump.
goodluck poor nintendo niggas.

It's funny that as soon as you make the bread and circuses just a tad more expensive so you can rebuild the country, the losers riot. Pathetic.

 

[mindlessobserver]

It's funny that as soon as you make the bread and circuses just a tad more expensive so you can rebuild the country, the losers riot. Pathetic.

Speaking of Bread and Circuses and Rome, a major contributing cause of the Late Empires decline other then an unstable central government was the overreliance of Rome on Slave labor and doing most of the productive work far away in the provinces.

Once the Barbarians started encroaching and the provinces started agitating for more home rule, Rome itself had little to fall back on, especially since by then the vast majority of the population was reliant on hand outs and production couldn't just be stood up in the core. They would also riot if any reforms to the free food programs were interrupted. Further bankrupting the stretched State to the point it could not even afford to pay the mercenary legions. Who took their pay by sacking Rome instead.

 

[Starved Artist]

Fuck off. We put up with enough of your bullshit and suffered enough. We can have economies that are mutually beneficial, not this lose/lose crap.

Cunt

Zero Sum Niggers are the downfall of society. Mutual benefit is not in their vocabulary. Everything is either MUST WIN or "you're losing". Once you get someone completely cucked by the "I can't be a loser" mindset, they'll listen to everything you tell them, as long as you get them thinking "this next step will make them a winner"
I still can't believe people fall for it. Like fuck. Has nobody ever applied for a job with Vector Knives? or any other MLM dressed up as a real company?

 

[myhairisonfire]

>fuck you boomer Grandma
>fuck you middle class
>fuck you poors, you should be slaves

"I want my fellow countryman to fail and suffer at any cost to myself or own personal expense. My nation will surely be stronger through this decimation."

 

[Crocodylus Acutus]

Speaking of Bread and Circuses and Rome, a major contributing cause of the Late Empires decline other then an unstable central government was the overreliance of Rome on Slave labor and doing most of the productive work far away in the provinces.

Once the Barbarians started encroaching and the provinces started agitating for more home rule, Rome itself had little to fall back on, especially since by then the vast majority of the population was reliant on hand outs and production couldn't just be stood up in the core. They would also riot if any reforms to the free food programs were interrupted. Further bankrupting the stretched State to the point it could not even afford to pay the mercenary legions. Who took their pay by sacking Rome instead.

Time really is a flat circle.

 

[WelperHelper99]

Speaking of Bread and Circuses and Rome, a major contributing cause of the Late Empires decline other then an unstable central government was the overreliance of Rome on Slave labor and doing most of the productive work far away in the provinces.

Once the Barbarians started encroaching and the provinces started agitating for more home rule, Rome itself had little to fall back on, especially since by then the vast majority of the population was reliant on hand outs and production couldn't just be stood up in the core. They would also riot if any reforms to the free food programs were interrupted. Further bankrupting the stretched State to the point it could not even afford to pay the mercenary legions. Who took their pay by sacking Rome instead.

Time is a flat circle indeed. This time around the bend however, Rome has its Ceaser at the helm. Where Rome fell before, I see a chance at rebirth for the US. Oh yes it's risky. The payoff is beyond measure. You cannot count the riches if Trump succeeds. This is the great reset, but instead of eat the bugs live in the pod, you will eat the steak and live in the house.

 

[FunPosting101]

All I know about these tariffs is that Jim Cramer isn't a fan of them, apparently. Given that he's typically wrong on economic matters, the tariffs in question can't be all bad at the very least.

 

[Starved Artist]

All I know about these tariffs is that Jim Cramer isn't a fan of them, apparently. Given that he's typically wrong on economic matters, the tariffs in question can't be all bad at the very least.

Broken Clocks are right twice a day.
We went from tariffs so small that nobody noticed nor really cared, to hilariously huge tariffs that only make sense if you've failed every point of economics , american history, trade history, and world history. Nothing in history "just happens" there's always build up of something. The real damage of the Great Depression happened due to a chain of hilariously bad decisions by two American Presidents. The Greater Depression will be caused by a chain of bad decisions by Two American Presidents.. Who happened to be the same guy.

 

[Fishmalk Observer]

Broken Clocks are right twice a day.
We went from tariffs so small that nobody noticed nor really cared, to hilariously huge tariffs that only make sense if you've failed every point of economics , american history, trade history, and world history. Nothing in history "just happens" there's always build up of something. The real damage of the Great Depression happened due to a chain of hilariously bad decisions by two American Presidents. The Greater Depression will be caused by a chain of bad decisions by Two American Presidents.. Who happened to be the same guy.

Sound like you got a severe case of the retards, friend. It's okay, there's like 30% of the country with that disease

 

[Overly Serious]

I think people can sincerely believe in one of these arguments but can't believe in all of them.

Interesting post. As an aside the above is called "Kettle Logic" from the classic example of a man whose neighbour borrows his kettle and brings it back broken. When challenged the neighbour protests that the kettle is not broken, he never borrowed it and it was broken when he took it.

Kettle Logic is when any one excuse by itself might be valid, but put them together and they contradict each other.

 

[Starved Artist]

Sound like you got a severe case of the retards, friend. It's okay, there's like 30% of the country with that disease

My side hustle had a 4.2% tariff before trump.( little memory books for commemorative photos of the Ridge)
I barely break even selling my shit at 5 dollars a piece for a 100 dollar a month investment.
At 4.2% I can sell 20 in a month and break even, if I get lucky and sell 25? Profit.
At 42%, I have to sell 40 at 5 dollars to make the same amount of money or sell 20 at 7. Nobody is paying 7 dollars for this.

Edit: fuck. My math was wrong. It's 46% tariff on materials from Vietnam.

 

[Seethan Ralph]

If the EU was not retarded and went for Russia/China they would laugh all the way to the bank.

Haven't EU suck all resources like coal and gas from Russia already before the war? Because I'm sure that was the case.

And European industry is at least partially dependednt on chinkoid factories.

 

[RSU 1741]

overreliance of Rome on Slave labor and doing most of the productive work far away in the provinces.

Rome wasn't an industrial society and by the late Empire (after the crisis of the Third Century) the era of the great slave plantations or the chances of great slave takings were kind of limited to struggles with the Germans. The great looting of the East during the late Republic/Early Empire was done by then, even if they luxury they gave to the City was kept up for a long time. Italy itself was one of the richer and most developed places in the Empire for obvious reasons, and most of the commerce was built on Mediterranean seaways. Food, not "industrial production" (whatever that means in the Ancient Period) was the most commonplace export/import. Rome needed a shitton of food. The vast majority of workers during the Late Empire were dependents of local powerful figures. One can argue that after Diocletian the line between "indentured servant" "dependent" and "slave" gets a tad blurry but that's a complex subject.

Pre-modern societies can't be compared to modern, industrialized societies. The scale and logistics are simply too different.

provinces started agitating for more home rule

Provinces did not "agitate for more home rule". Provinces got taken by local potentates, Imperial claimants or out of control German powers that in theory ruled for the Empire but were essentially autonomous. Britain did not secede from the Roman Empire: the Empire stopped providing protection considering it useless. The Vandals weren't African nationalists, they were a military elite ruling a subjugated population.

Late Roman politics do not work on contemporary nation-state categories. The political framework is simply too different.

vast majority of the population was reliant on hand outs

The vast majority of the population of the City itself. An unique case, somewhat irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. On the contrary, the Late Empire started cannibalizing itself to sustain military expenses and foreign policy payments, sacrificing everything else. "Be harmonious, enrich the soldiers, scorn all others". The Late Empire was a stratocracy, between the dozens of concurrent causes of its crisis (a crisis that nonetheless required centuries) was severely fucking up attempts to manage the Barbarian role in the army and its integration, a dismal failure with long-reaching consequences. One can argue that the Late Empire bleed itself to death to desperately try to keep up the army until it could no longer, but it's an oversimplification.

Time is not a circle. History does not repeat itself, at best it gives you false expectations: every empire sees in Rome its forefather, every Empire fears the fall and tries to divine the parallels. Kind of useless, IMHO, even if amusing. Also, pardon for the sperging, Roman history is serious business.