To summarize:
- Multi-trillion basis trade is blowing up and countless funds and banks are unwinding positions, but...
- There is not nearly enough liquidity in the system
- The lack of liquidity shockwave is rampaging across all markets, sending stocks plunging (liquidation panic), bonds crashing (yields up 50bps in 2 days), and a flight to safety in FX (yen soaring... but at some point the inflection point will get hit and there will be an acute shortage of dollars as the global synthetic dollar short at around $6 trillion is even bigger than the basis trade).
- We have critical liquidity drainage events as soon as tomorrow (the 10Y auction followed by the 30Y auction on Thursday), and if there is not enough liquidity in the system, we may have an unofficially failed auction - yes Dealers would in theory take down the whole thing, but if we get a 40 or 50% dealer award, it's the same as a failed auction.
Meanwhile, if this were happening at any other time, the Fed would be rushing to bail out the system. After all Powell cut a jumbo 50bps in Septemebr 2024 when there was zero stress in the market plumbing... But he can't do anything now because he would be seen as aiding Trump, especially since the narrative now is that yields are surging because of stagflation fears. Only,
that's not the case at all - indeed, yields were tumbling until Friday, when the basis trade started to get unwound, at which point they shot straight up.
And the biggest paradox is that the more liquidity is drained, the higher yields will rise, the more the Fed will misinterpret the signal sent from yields as one of stagflation ("let Trump fix that, he just needs to undo tariffs") instead of what it really is: imploding liquidity and an imminent market crisis.
Oh and lest we forget, if Powell were to cut tomorrow, or launch QE, the Democrats would never forgive him as they would see such an action as bailing out Trump.
Only Powell no longer has a choice, because if he lets Trump crash and burn, the Fed Chair will also be allowing the entire financial system collapse!
In retrospect little did we know how prescient this tweet from more than a year ago would prove to be...
btw this is where the next really big crash will start
https://t.co/XcK2RezYEk
— zerohedge (@zerohedge)
February 1, 2024
And now we wait to see what the Fed will do because the next 48 hours may well be the most important in the recent history of the US.