Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

So what's going on with the ceasefire news? To me, just feels like the US is giving Russia time to capture as much land as possible.

Ceasefire was walked back to only Black Sea and certain energy assets. I've not see the official document, if there was one, but Russia has launched Kalibrs from the black sea which I would think would be a violation. Russia has also done their usual shit of lobbing missiles into civilian targets.

Other than that, nothing much has happened.
Russia is dragging their feet on any sort of actual peace deal. Sanctions are being held at current levels thought there has mentions of making Russian oil effectively terrorist organization (that is, do business with Russian oil get locked out from global finance)

 

[draggs]

Since my last Pokrovsk update 9 days ago the Russians haven't gained shit. No doubt this is partially because they are mustering resources for their next push, this is their pattern. They drown the AFU in blood to advance a kilometer or two over a couple weeks, then pause to gather the cannon fodder to do it again. But it's also because despite their advantage in resources, even when they assemble overwhelming numerical advantage they still can't advance faster than a snail's pace. The strategic value of Pokrovsk to the AFU that existed months ago when it was both a critical logistics hub and strongpoint has been greatly lessened. New supply arrangements have been set up and fortifications prepared so when Pokrovsk finally does fall after another 20,000 conscripted Tatar casualties and several more months it will mean Ukraine is done for trust me bros pls bros pls

 

[National Defense Advocate]

The negotiations are in just as much of a stalemate as the war itself.
Europe literally cannot help, the US is pre-occupied and everything seems to be floundering.
It is playing out exactly as I had predicted.

 

[Ghostse]

President Zelenskyy confirmed the first combat loss of F-16 (Twitter). Pilot is KIA.


The Z niggers will now be beating themselves in the chest and worship the debris of Viper like remains of a deity.

Mongoloid niggers will milk the shootdown from every angle and recycle the footage to claim more F-16 defeats like they did with the Leopard 2, Bradley, and all the other Western designs that are so obviously inferior that destroying one is more important than all the Soviet crap they've lost.

"Fighterbomber" will smile until the next "eternal flight", which hopefully won't take long.

Poorly sourced wonking I've come across laid out the following scenario about what happened:
In short, Russia borrowed a play from UKA proving that they can't do anything except steal.

The Kursk area has been devoid of tactically deployed S-400 systems for months. The value of the nearly-irreplaceable RADARs has pulled them back due to the possiblity of Ukraine penetrator drones getting inside the short-range blind spot*.

Ukraine has been doing stand-off bomb runs in support of the Kursk direction for months. Russia essentially pulls back combat aircraft when F-16s are in the area due to fears they could be carrying AIM-120 (or something even worse) and doesn't try R-37 spam because the F-16s operate at altitude so dodging would be trivial. The UKA F-16s have access to HARMS that outrange S-300 RADAR, so essentially Russian tip-of-the-spear airdefense shutsdown when F-16s are around (at least in any manner said F-16s have to worry about). S-400s further back stay lit, there is some S-300 pulsing, and Russian CAP is hovering near by so its not total operational freedom, but when doing your attack run no one is actively fucking with you. Ukraine F-16s don't have much in the way of ECM, but they do operate at the edge of Russian missile operational ranges so the defense against air-targeting missiles is "get out of range".
(Note: As a milsperg I have to laugh at the irony; they pulled guns from the F-4 until the E variant because the future was beyond-visual-contact missile jousting. and now, nearly 70 years later, its finally happened)

This likely lead to Ukrainian F-16 pilots and air command getting complacent. UKA pilots are not overly experienced with NATO craft, and Ukrainian Aircommand has seen "the longer we keep an F-16 in the area, the longer time the Russians stay back. This plus the small number of F-16s means that the F-16s are the only NATO craft in the sky when they go up. Russia noticed this and planned accordingly.

So much like when Ukraine managed to whack the AN-50 and the Il-76 in rapid succession, Russia snuck an S-400** up to the front without being noticed. When the next F-16 got close, Russia flipped on the RADAR, got lock, and lauched two*** salvos then went dark and packed up.

The Ukrainian pilot didn't respond in time. Either ignored a lock warning from his plane, or wasn't looking around and didn't notice the contrails. Or he may have seen his lock warning but assuming that the launchers would be further back didn't react quickly enough. Or given the (supposed) primary defense for F-16 pilots is get out of range, may have not expected the longer-range S-400 missiles launched closer than he was expecting.

So a combination of Russia changing up tactics, pilot complacency, lack of pilot skill, 50-year-old non-stealth aircraft, and fuck ups in deployment by Ukrainian air command.

or tl;dr:
50 year old NATO 2nd-line jet finally proven vulnerable to latest model Russian SAM.


* S-400 is designed for range, but has a 25 mile radius "blind spot" that is supposed to be filled by Pantsirs or overlapping coverage by other S-400/300 systems. That hasn't been possible since Russia woke up to Ukraine having HARMs.
** Reports are S-400 but its unknown if it was an S-400 system or a hybrid; an S-400 RADAR launching S-300 missiles or vice versa. There is some evidence that Russia risked a less valuable S-300 RADAR but right now everything is still speculation. They also aren't sure if the RADAR was close or just the launchers.
*** again, fog of war Special Military Operation is thick. Some people are saying there were two multi-missile salvos, some are saying one. Its made harder by the fact it looks like Yook ground based air defense (or Russian quality control) got at least one SAM.

View attachment 7210505


source

Presumably there won't be a Baltic equivalent of the Ardennes left unfortified because surely no one would go that way. Fortification with the usual drones, mines and artillery have proven to be an effective way of arresting advances in this war, so war is not fought in the ruins of cities. Given that the Trump Administration has decided half assed efforts and attempts at shady deals towards a temp ceasefire are better than helping an ally defend itself, this is how it will be. Ukraine has ensured that at the present rate it would take Russia a 100 years to attain its partial goal of half Ukraine. Still an abundance of caution is the best given the uncertainty of US support nowadays.

tl;dr the gap at Ardennes wasn't left because "no one would come this way" ... well, not exactly. The reason the Marginot line didn't continue to the coast because of political considerations: France had to reasure Belgium that they would come to their aid next time, and building a massive defensive line of fortifications would not do that. So the line stopped where it did because the nation of belgium essentially the northern reach of the Marginot line. However, the supposed impenetrableness of the Ardennes to large combat formations on any sort of timeframe was one factor in France stopping exactly where they did.

The fuck up came when the balloon did go up, France was sluggish to respond. The speed with with Belgium collapsed and then the rapidity with which Germans continued caught French war planners with their pants down. It wasn't that the Ardennes was viewed as some wooden wall, it was "The germans need to secure Belgium. If they do continue their assault there is absolutely no way they will be able to bring sufficient forces with sufficient supply through the Ardennes, we can thus focus on the major border crossings and deploy minimal forces that way until we have managed to find our own ass once we're able to put both hands to the task."
This did not happen, as France had underestimated the change of speed in war, and Germany's raw grit; the Ardennes assault very nearly failed.

And even THEN, militarily France was still in ample position to fight. Their armor forces were complete lol granted but their army and command was nearly intact - just in flight.
If the political government hadn't capitulated, Hitler would have likely been driven back from Paris. However, France through a mix of "being French", not wanting to endure a 2nd Somme, and miscalculation about Dunkirk and how ready Britain was for war, plus concerns about Franco in Spain getting his marker called, threw in the towel.

The Marginot line did its job: It reduced the potential front that France needed to defend. But it always depended on a fairly rapid deployment of French troops to, essentially, go into Belgium and hold the Enemy there. This did not happen, and the Germans leveraged the weakness in French deployment.

 

[WhiteNight]

Footage from today's Sumy attack. Current death toll is reported at 32, and likely to rise, already exceeding the 20 killed in Kryvyi Rih about a week ago.

Spoiler: Corpses

 

[‘84 Fuckerbird Trans Man]

Footage from today's Sumy attack. Current death toll is reported at 32, and likely to rise, already exceeding the 20 killed in Kryvyi Rih about a week ago.

Spoiler: Corpses

View attachment 7213623

Right on the Palm Sunday, when streets are full of people going to church!

But it's Zelenskyy who persecutes Christians, it's always Ukraine's fault!

Here's what Russian swines have to say on the matter in their brainrot Telegram channels:

Spoiler: vvv

 

[-Jack-]

Footage from today's Sumy attack. Current death toll is reported at 32, and likely to rise, already exceeding the 20 killed in Kryvyi Rih about a week ago.

Spoiler: Corpses

View attachment 7213623

it's okay, because Trump said if Russia doesn't budge on ceasefire agreements he'll give Ukraine ultimate military aid... nevemrind.

 

[No. 7 cat]

Right on the Palm Sunday, when streets are full of people going to church!

But it's Zelenskyy who persecutes Christians, it's always Ukraine's fault!

Here's what Russian swines have to say on the matter in their brainrot Telegram channels:

Spoiler: vvv

View attachment 7213909

Shills, AIDS riddled Tim Pool fans, and pajeets (who shill for Israel and Russia for free) are probably spreading some lie that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile was responsible, but this 'Elena Alaverda' is more authentically Russian response. War crimes like beheadings and shooting of POWs are usually not discovered through careful monitoring of secret channels, the criminals themselves often post the crime footage with a largely supportive response. Alternatively they just voice support, as above. They then wonder about 'Russophobia'. Like most supposed -phobias, it's reasonable. The courageous Russians who oppose Putin are far outnumbered by ghouls who exult in the murder of Ukrainians.

Again this is the millionth example that the only persecutor of Orthodox Christians in Ukraine is Russia.

Spoiler: Ukrainian General Staff swear vengeance - Ukrainska Pravda

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces has vowed "inevitable retribution" and a harsh response following Russia’s double missile strike on the city of Sumy that killed 32 people.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Quote: "Russia once again proves that it is not seeking peace. Its goal is to sow fear. But Russia will face only our fury and inevitable retribution.

Our response will be harsh. We will destroy the occupiers, their military facilities, weapons, and equipment – wherever they may be.

Russian war crimes have no statute of limitations. The perpetrators must be brought to justice."

Details: The General Staff noted that "having failed to achieve strategic success on the battlefield, the enemy is once again resorting to its typical tactics – targeting civilians and grossly violating international law, as well as the laws and customs of war".

Background:

• On the morning of 13 April, the Russian missile attack on the centre of Sumy killed at least 32 people, including 2 children. More than 80 people have been injured.
• The number of injured civilians has risen to 99, including 11 children.
• It was the second Russian missile strike that caused mass fatalities and injuries to civilians in Sumy.

Ukrainska Pravda

As the short piece notes, the Russians fail to achieve much on the battlefield so terrorism against civilians is all they can do. I hope at least Trump will specifically condemn it and rein in the appalling Wikloff.

 

[mindlessobserver]

As the short piece notes, the Russians fail to achieve much on the battlefield so terrorism against civilians is all they can do. I hope at least Trump will specifically condemn it and rein in the appalling Wikloff.

Trump has so far proven very unwilling to actually attach consequences to his demand for the war to end, which is ultimately meaningless without those consequences. I think the game was given away too early in that fundamentally the USA doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine at this point. He's not talked about it in awhile, and I doubt he will do so now. So any sort of US based pressure will be ignored by both Russia and Ukraine. The EU has also proven unwilling to step up and fill the vacuum, so this mess will just grind on.

 

[Skylavijas]

Here's what Russian swines have to say on the matter in their brainrot Telegram channels:

Spoiler: vvv

View attachment 7213909

I can't even get mad at this, this is clearly a mentally troubled babushka, who had her brain rotted from years of conspiracies and propaganda, raving utter nonsense. Slightly reminds me of my grandma... What could Ukrainian children possibly do to make her that mad?

The only disturbing part is the realization that rhetoric which would ordinarily belong in a retirement clinic or an insane asylum gets treated as exclamation of patriotism in Russia.

 

[Ghostse]

Trump has so far proven very unwilling to actually attach consequences to his demand for the war to end, which is ultimately meaningless without those consequences. I think the game was given away too early in that fundamentally the USA doesn't really care what happens to Ukraine at this point. He's not talked about it in awhile, and I doubt he will do so now. So any sort of US based pressure will be ignored by both Russia and Ukraine. The EU has also proven unwilling to step up and fill the vacuum, so this mess will just grind on.

Ukraine is very much not a priority for Trump, and again Biden on his way out the door did what he should have done in 2022 and it is having an effect.
He's trying to sort out the Tariff slapfight and that is his priority.
There has been a budget "draft proposal" that isn't a budget but nothing was ear marked for Ukraine but there would be room to include it. It doesn't look very likely that Democrats will demand Ukraine funding on the bill, but there likely won't be a an actual budget passed till Summer so who knows what will happen by then.

As the short piece notes, the Russians fail to achieve much on the battlefield so terrorism against civilians is all they can do. I hope at least Trump will specifically condemn it and rein in the appalling Wikloff.

Re: Wikloff, he's a special envoy. The Special Envoy's job is to essentially be someone who smiles, nods, and makes agreeable non-verbal mmmhmmm" noise to keep the other side talking and at the table. See: the literal parade of Middle-east "special enoys" calmly reiterating the talking points of terrorists and ethnic-cleansing colonialists.

The fact Putin's dachas are not smoking craters is proof of the UN being fake and gay.

 

[SBG]

Zelensky did an interview for 60 minutes which Trump is pissed about. Axios has some highlights like asking Trump to visit the country to see what's happened there, suggested Vance was engaging in some justification of Putin's actions, and that Ukraine wasn't the aggressor in the conflict.

https://www.axios.com/2025/04/14/zelensky-trump-vance-russia-ukraine-war-60-minutes

Zelensky accuses Vance of "somehow justifying Putin's actions"​

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky invited President Trump to Ukraine during a "60 Minutes" interview broadcast Sunday in which he addressed his fiery White House meeting in February.

The big picture: Zelensky said through an interpreter there had not only been "a shift in tone" in the U.S., but also "a shift in reality" as he suggested Russian leader Vladimir Putin's narrative had cut through to the Trump administration and singled out Vice President JD Vance.

What they're saying: "I don't want to engage in the altered reality that is being presented to me," Zelensky told CBS' Scott Pelley during the interview that was filmed in his hometown of Kryvyi Rih,, where 10 adults and nine children were last week killed in a Russian missile attack near a playground.

• "First and foremost, we did not launch an attack," said Zelensky, addressing Trump's false claims in February that Ukraine had started the three-year-old war.
• "It seems to me that the vice president is somehow justifying Putin's actions," Zelensky said of Vance, who accused him during their White House meeting of showing disrespect and of misleading visitors by taking them on "propaganda tours."
• "I tried to explain, "You can't look for something in the middle. There is an aggressor and there is a victim. The Russians are the aggressor, and we are the victim," added Zelensky in the interview that was filmed on Friday, the day White House envoy Steve Witkoff met with Putin in Russia.
• Representatives for the White House and Vance did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment in the evening.

What we're watching: Zelensky spoke English when he appealed directly to Trump during the interview, saying Ukrainians "want you to come" and see for himself.

• "Please, before any kind of decisions, any kind of forms of negotiations, come to see people, civilians, warriors, hospitals, churches, children destroyed or dead," he said.
• "Come, look, and then let's move with a plan how to finish the war. You will understand with whom you have a deal. You will understand what Putin did. ... You can go exactly where you want, in any city which been under attacks."

Of note: Zelensky switched back Ukrainian as he paused to answer Pelley's question about whether he thinks the U.S. has Kyiv's back.

• "I want to answer truthfully and quickly that the United States is our strategic, strong partner. But the pause is doubt," he said.
• "I don't doubt that the people of America are with us. But in a long war, many details are forgotten. In Europe everyone fears that the United States may drift away from Europe," he added.
• "I think without the United States we will suffer great losses. Human and territorial. So, I wouldn't like to consider that. But this is our destiny, our land, our life. One way or another, we will end this war."

Ukraine is very much not a priority for Trump, and again Biden on his way out the door did what he should have done in 2022 and it is having an effect.

Presidents don't usually just have one or two things as a priority, so though the conflict isn't at the top of his list, I think it's still appropriate to call it a priority given the amount of political capital he's spent on it.

Trump went deep into making the conflict one of the defining aspects of his administration in part by running on how he'd resolve the conflict with ease, attacking anyone wanting more support for Ukraine, then later with blowing up at Zelensky in the oval office.

He now has this as one of the defining images of his presidency so far.


He'd probably like it if he could treat the US as a neutral third party to the conflict, but that'd basically mean siding openly with Putin which would fuck over Republicans even more politically so not really an option. Trump is stuck with Ukraine as one of the defining aspects of his presidency and the only way it's going away is if he somehow decided to reverse course and shower the country with support, since at least then he could say he tried and not catch hell for it if the conflict didn't end thanks to his attempts at 'negotiations'.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Trump's retarded "peace plan" failed, I'm willing to give him credit on some aspects of domestic politics, specifically cleansing retarded woke shit where it doesn't belong, but he utterly failed with Ukraine.
And I'm honestly not interested in anything he has to say on the matter anymore.

 

[khaine]

Perun provides an update on Ukraine after Kursk

 

[No. 7 cat]

Shills, AIDS riddled Tim Pool fans, and pajeets (who shill for Israel and Russia for free) are probably spreading some lie that a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile was responsible, but this 'Elena Alaverda' is more authentically Russian response. War crimes like beheadings and shooting of POWs are usually not discovered through careful monitoring of secret channels, the criminals themselves often post the crime footage with a largely supportive response. Alternatively they just voice support, as above. They then wonder about 'Russophobia'. Like most supposed -phobias, it's reasonable. The courageous Russians who oppose Putin are far outnumbered by ghouls who exult in the murder of Ukrainians.

Again this is the millionth example that the only persecutor of Orthodox Christians in Ukraine is Russia.

Spoiler: Ukrainian General Staff swear vengeance - Ukrainska Pravda

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces has vowed "inevitable retribution" and a harsh response following Russia’s double missile strike on the city of Sumy that killed 32 people.

Source: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Quote: "Russia once again proves that it is not seeking peace. Its goal is to sow fear. But Russia will face only our fury and inevitable retribution.

Our response will be harsh. We will destroy the occupiers, their military facilities, weapons, and equipment – wherever they may be.

Russian war crimes have no statute of limitations. The perpetrators must be brought to justice."

Details: The General Staff noted that "having failed to achieve strategic success on the battlefield, the enemy is once again resorting to its typical tactics – targeting civilians and grossly violating international law, as well as the laws and customs of war".

Background:

• On the morning of 13 April, the Russian missile attack on the centre of Sumy killed at least 32 people, including 2 children. More than 80 people have been injured.
• The number of injured civilians has risen to 99, including 11 children.
• It was the second Russian missile strike that caused mass fatalities and injuries to civilians in Sumy.

Ukrainska Pravda

As the short piece notes, the Russians fail to achieve much on the battlefield so terrorism against civilians is all they can do. I hope at least Trump will specifically condemn it and rein in the appalling Wikloff.

Spoiler: Trump does condemn but also excuses Putin claiming it was surely (despite this sort of atrocity happening repeatedly) a mistake and Biden's fault

Editor's note: The article was corrected to indicate that Trump said Biden should have never allowed the war to start, not the military aid.

U.S. President Donald Trump called Russia's deadly attack against Sumy on April 13 "terrible" but suggested it had been carried out by "mistake" without elaborating on how he came to the conclusion.

"I think it was terrible, and I was told they made a mistake, but I think it's a horrible thing. I think the whole war is a horrible thing... for that war to have started is an abuse of power," Trump said when asked about the Russian strike.

"This is (former U.S. President Joe) Biden's war. This is not my war; I've been here for a very short period of time. This is a war that was under Biden. He gave them billions and billions of dollars," Trump said, adding Biden should have never "allowed" the war to start.

Russia targeted Sumy in a deadly attack on April 13, killing at least 34 and leaving 117 people injured. European leaders condemned the Palm Sunday attack, describing it as appalling and "heartbreaking."

Trump described the attack on Sumy as a "mistake," but told reporters to query Russia when asked to elaborate.

"That war is a shame. Millions of people are dead that should be alive. Cities are being destroyed all over Ukraine. The whole culture is gone. It's very certainly very severely hurt," Trump said.

"You know the chapels, the churches, the spirals, all of the things they had in Ukraine were among the most beautiful anywhere in the world. Most of them were knocked down and blown up into a million pieces."

Trump reiterated past remarks that Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine would not occur under his leadership.

"(M)illions of people would be alive except for the fact that the election were rigged because that war would have never started and (Russian President Vladimir) Putin never would have started that war," Trump claimed.

The U.S. President told reporters he wants to put a stop to Russia's war against Ukraine.

"I'm just trying to get it stopped so that we can save a lot of lives. They happen to be Ukrainian and Russian lives, but all I want to do is get it stopped," Trump said.

The U.S. has previously led separate talks with Ukraine and Russia in Saudi Arabia to reach a ceasefire. On April 6, Zelensky said Russia is rejecting an unconditional ceasefire because it wants to continue launching missile strikes from the Black Sea.

Moscow has shown signs it is unwilling to move forward on a peace deal with Ukraine. Russian authorities have listed maximalist demands in ceasefire negotiations with Ukraine and the U.S.

Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed full 30-day ceasefire, saying on March 11 that Kyiv is ready if Russia also agrees to the terms. So far, Moscow has refused.

archive - Kyiv Independent / original link - Kyiv Independent

Mainly Trump frames it in a narcissistic way that the war would've only started without him in office, basically blaming it on Biden. At least he seems to say that Putin did start it (because Biden was in Office), which is partly something. Overall It's a very inadequate reaction. I hope again that witless Wikloff is yanked off stage with an umbrella handle (not with some Bulgarian umbrella, just maybe sent to some Floridian retirement village). He's an ill prepared, aging builder / landlord, a Temu Trump.

 

[Ghostse]

He'd probably like it if he could treat the US as a neutral third party to the conflict, but that'd basically mean siding openly with Putin which would fuck over Republicans even more politically so not really an option. Trump is stuck with Ukraine as one of the defining aspects of his presidency and the only way it's going away is if he somehow decided to reverse course and shower the country with support, since at least then he could say he tried and not catch hell for it if the conflict didn't end thanks to his attempts at 'negotiations'.

I think you really need to consume some US news from not the side with Orange Man Bad, because Ukraine is already nearly gone from the US mainstream news cycle. There are articles about latest Russian attacks but it plays at the "more sandniggers in the middle east killed each other today" levels of importance. Everyone is focusing on tariffs, the economy, and stocks.
That SNL sketch will be forgotten by 2026 except for people permatriggered about Orange Man looking for anything to have their hour of hate over, and those of us who still give a shit about Ukraine.

Trump just doesn't want the US left taking point on something that isn't our problem and I think he views Ukraine as unwinnable unless Europe is willing to go to war Special Military Operation with Russia in Ukraine, and I think he's correct in view that as something that will never happen (though I think Ukraine can prevail without it).
So he just doesn't want to funnel billions into it, especially with the main beneficiaries of the US committing to Ukraine unwilling to either nut up or defer to the US.
EU/Europe has made a lot of noise about nutting up in past month since this stuff went full throttle, but I think outside of the Scands everyone has been all talk. Lots of pledges, not a lot of deliveries.

but he utterly failed with Ukraine.

He's at like an extreme C-, he hasn't completely failed yet; 72-hour slap flight to show he wasn't kidding aside, he's not rocked the boat. Nothing has ended, current aid is continuing as before, just nothing new has gotten approved. The US budget will be the real showing and that's not looking promising.
(IMO I think because it mattered to Biden, Trump is vastly underestimating the importance of Ukraine to Dems now that they aren't in charge)

Regarding the peace plan, everyone with any memory of the past 10 years and the vaguest notes on Russia knew that any peace plan that doesn't have as realistic consequences "Moscow is replaced by a crater" aka lower building height + less crime but otherwise no big changes was ever going to work. Trump has shown signs of realizing that inconvenient truth. I wish Trump would wake up to this faster than he's been doing.

Mainly Trump frames it in a narcissistic way that the war would've only started without him in office, basically blaming it on Biden.

He's not wrong there, but only because Putin wouldn't have wanted to go in on an unknown quantity and would have just waited till after 2024 to do it.
From what we've been seeing though I'm not sure if Putin HAD said "fuck it, we ball", Trump'd have done all that much better than Biden. (otoh then that would make an insult to him so who knows.)

If we want to pretend everything had been on hold for Trump's 2nd term and then proceeded more or less the same time line just +4 years, the only substantive difference would have been the Donbros would have likely been in a better position due to Zelensky running on appeasement and a fully upgraded Scranton would have been online when the balloon went up so there would have been better 155mm availability from the US.

 

[SBG]

Ukraine is already nearly gone from the US mainstream news cycle

I get it's not a major headline the way the tariffs are, that doesn't make it no longer an issue plaguing Republicans/Trump. Was just a couple weeks ago I saw protesters near my street where some had signs regarding Ukraine (a minority of the crowd but still). Was annoying since I was wanting to sleep in and got to hear people on blowhorns in the background.

It's one of a variety of issues that has people's ire which is why Republicans are still trying to avoid town halls.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-avoid-town-halls-congressional-recess-rcna200903

Republicans set to largely avoid town halls during the congressional recess​

Members of Congress are back in their districts for a two-week recess, potentially bracing for more anger from constituents.

But voters in Republican districts might not have much of a chance to question their representatives.


Weeks after Rep. Richard Hudson, the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, advised Republican members of Congress not to hold in-person town halls, it appears that most of them are heeding his advice.

According to press releases and publicly posted event notices, the majority of town halls and town hall-style events taking place over the congressional recess will be hosted by Democrats.

The few Republicans who have publicly advised that they’ll be holding town halls include Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Byron Donalds of Florida. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, who just launched his 45th annual 99-county tour of Iowa, will also be holding a public town hall in his state.

Greene and Donalds, who is running for governor in Florida, each restricted registration for their upcoming town halls to residents of their respective districts.

The move comes after several of their colleagues have faced public ire at town halls in recent months over the Trump administration’s cuts to the federal workforce and a House Republican budget blueprint that could lead to Medicaid cuts.

Since the last recess, Republican members of the House and Senate voted on a new blueprint that directs the House Energy and Commerce Committee, which oversees Medicare and Medicaid, to identify over $800 billion in spending cuts in areas of their jurisdiction.

Before Hudson’s March directive to avoid in-person town halls, videos of several Republican lawmakers, including Rep. Keith Self, R-Texas, and Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., facing angry constituents at local events went viral.

And after Hudson’s advice went public, Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-N.C., dealt with angry constituents inside and outside of his town hall event in western North Carolina last month, and Rep. Harriet Hageman, R-Wyo., was jeered and booed at a town hall she hosted for constituents.

A source close to Hudson told NBC News that the NRCC chairman has not mentioned anything about town halls to GOP lawmakers since his advice in March.

Over a dozen Democratic lawmakers are still planning to hold their own events in their districts this month, but they’ve also had frustrated attendees at town halls, particularly after Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., last month led Democrats to support a President Donald Trump-backed bill to fund the government.

The anger Democrats are facing at in-person events from members of their own party tracks with national polling numbers that say rank-and-file Democrats are seeking a stronger reaction to Trump from their elected leaders. A March NBC News poll found that nearly two-thirds — 65% — of the party’s voters want congressional Democrats to stick to their positions even if that risks sacrificing bipartisan progress with the president.

Still, the party is doubling down on a strategy to host a series of what it has dubbed “People’s Town Halls” in districts represented by Republicans.

Over the upcoming two-week recess, Democrats plan to hold town halls in Arizona’s 6th District, which is represented by GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani; Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which is represented by Rep. Rob Bresnahan; Colorado’s 8th District, which is represented by GOP Rep. Gabe Evans; North Carolina’s 9th District, which is represented by Hudson; and Missouri’s 2nd District, which is represented by GOP Rep. Ann Wagner.

In a statement announcing the upcoming town halls, which follow an original slate of town hall events Democrats hosted in GOP-held districts last month, Rep. Suzan DelBene, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said Republicans’ constituents are “sick and tired of being ignored by House Republicans who refuse to do their jobs.”

She added that “vulnerable Republicans continue to run scared because they’re voting to raise costs, gut Medicaid, and threaten working families livelihoods.”

In a separate series of town halls that began a few weeks ago — dubbed the “Fighting Oligarchy” tour — Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., drew crowds of tens of thousands of people as they denounced Trump, congressional Republicans and congressional Democrats, whom Ocasio-Cortez urged to “fight harder.”

They held a rally in Los Angeles on Saturday, which Sanders’ communications director Anna Bahr said drew 36,000 people and was the senator’s largest ever.

Sanders said the administration “is moving us rapidly toward an authoritarian form of society — and Mr. Trump, we ain’t going there.”

Their tour will continue over this recess with planned stops in California, Utah, Idaho and Montana.

A spokesperson for the NRCC, House Republicans’ campaign arm, told NBC News in a statement, “In a desperate attempt to distract voters from the chaos in their own party, Democrats are resorting to political theater that panders to the far-left radicals instead of addressing the concerns of everyday voters who have already rejected their out-of-touch agenda.”

Trump just doesn't want the US left taking point on something that isn't our problem

If Trump didn't want Ukraine to be treated as an issue for his administration he'd be distancing himself from it by giving up on the negotiations and leaving it to Europe/Ukraine to deal with. He could be washing his hands of it politically and try focusing more of his administration's foreign policy efforts on any other region to try and salvage some foreign policy win while other aspects of his administration work on issues like their trade war or immigration.

That SNL sketch will be forgotten by 2026

Wasn't trying to say a sketch would be remembered, but rather the blow up and following deterioration of his handling of the invasion. If it wasn't a significant event then most people wouldn't be able to see images of it and remember what the fuck happened there.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Wasn't trying to say a sketch would be remembered, but rather the blow up and following deterioration of his handling of the invasion. If it wasn't a significant event then most people wouldn't be able to see images of it and remember what the fuck happened there.

I hate to nitpick, but word choice really matters. Trump isn't handling an invasion. He's handling a war that has gone on for over 3 years. 3 years in which he was not President.

 

[Fatsuit Shinji]

It'll been six years, as the thing started in 2014 with Obama in office, and the SMO with Biden.

If Trump didn't want Ukraine to be treated as an issue for his administration he'd be distancing himself from it by giving up on the negotiations and leaving it to Europe/Ukraine to deal with. He could be washing his hands of it politically and try focusing more of his administration's foreign policy efforts on any other region to try and salvage some foreign policy win while other aspects of his administration work on issues like their trade war or immigration.

Easier said then done, as Trump had got the EU and Canada actively trying to reinvent all of the wheels just to avoid any and all U.S. hardware and software.

:edit Yes I am actutely aware of them being very optimistic in trying to accomplish that on decent time frame. And costing less or equal to just paying their NATO obligations. Neither of which is happening at all just on trying to replace Starlink/Starshield with their Eutelsat.

 

[Ghostse]

If Trump didn't want Ukraine to be treated as an issue for his administration he'd be distancing himself from it by giving up on the negotiations and leaving it to Europe/Ukraine to deal with. He could be washing his hands of it politically and try focusing more of his administration's foreign policy efforts on any other region to try and salvage some foreign policy win while other aspects of his administration work on issues like their trade war or immigration.

Trump understands he can't walk all the way out, without reason, because it sends the wrong the message internationally. But Trump isn't also going in on a position based on sunk cost fallacy (I don't think its sunk cost, we're getting incredible value for the aid sent over, but I can wrap my head around the thought process of arriving at that position).

Honestly I'm not sure of the play, I'm not convinced Trump is sure of his play. But its gotten more defense pledge from the EU in 30 days than 30 years of asking nicely managed.

I get it's not a major headline the way the tariffs are, that doesn't make it no longer an issue plaguing Republicans/Trump. Was just a couple weeks ago I saw protesters near my street where some had signs regarding Ukraine (a minority of the crowd but still). Was annoying since I was wanting to sleep in and got to hear people on blowhorns in the background.

Again, Orange Man bad crowd after fuel for their hour of hate does not a normie issue make. And remember its only been a month.

Wasn't trying to say a sketch would be remembered, but rather the blow up and following deterioration of his handling of the invasion. If it wasn't a significant event then most people wouldn't be able to see images of it and remember what the fuck happened there.

The sketch/image whatever. It will be a "huh?" in a year for the non-invested. Its already pretty much a "huh?" by most normies.

Easier said then done, as Trump had got the EU and Canada actively trying to reinvent all of the wheels just to avoid any and all U.S. hardware and software.

They've got them making noise about it. I doubt anything comes from it other than that the Eurofighter II project might actually come out with a prototype before 2050 and without completely falling apart over Euro slapfighting ()