Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

BruceOfHeem said:
Any news on Ukraine actually accepting the ceasefire or is ziggerland hoping Ukraine comply?
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Don't think they would, nor that they should. There's absolutely no reason to comply, especially considering Russia's recent attacks on civilians.
Of course if they do anything, Russian propaganda will screech about fascist Ukraine desecrating the anti-facist celebration exactly because they're nazis, proving how right they are in bombing Ukrainian children.
 
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Least Concern said:
Here's a summary of the deal from Noel Reports:
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The deal isn't public yet (that I've seen) but people have seen final drafts.
The near complete overlap with the previous version makes me wonder if there is some information lag.

The only thing I saw called out in this version is previously allotted aid is not covered by the agreement - that is, the argeement doesn't start with Ukraine in the red.
edit: looks like profit from infrastructure handling said resources is off the table too.

Least Concern said:
The bit about the US providing air defense systems strikes me as odd because that doesn't directly help with reconstruction.

On the whole I'm getting the vibe that it's more providing a framework for further agreements in the future rather than anything specific and actionable right now, but I could be wrong. It doesn't seem like it will have any direct effect on the war aside from maybe spooking the Putinsuckers who thought Trump was in their pocket a bit. On the whole it's probably a good thing but the unnecessary death is not over yet, unfortunately.
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re: Air defense
I think Patriot is being called out because Ukraine wants a stronger AAD umbrella. But from what I'm getting from their interpretation is it also allows for US defense packages to be counted as "contributions" into the fund so I'm really fucking curious how that plays out.

Re: Vibe
That was pretty much all the mineral agreement does. Its a frame work for reconstruction and more importantly gives the US a place for future aid to Ukraine to go to that isn't under the direct control of corrupt Slavic bureaucrats; now they must also work with Corrupt Burger Bureaucrats if they wish to engage in wholesale graft.

There is also interesting references to "performance" and a 10-year freeze on disbursements, only reinvestment in Ukraine, so the US can't just vote to dispurse the fund then take the money and run (at least not until 2035 when Trump will be on his 5th term and pushing 100; so actually strapped into the golden throne.)

I'm also curious if the original preamble is still in there because that was a very strong condemnation of Russia and arguably the only real thing of note it did was putting the US calling Russia the aggressor and invasion illegal as an official, on-record policy.


SBG said:
The reconstruction idea was probably set aside a while ago as the US focused just on how it'd be paid back. There is at least more concern from Europe on that as they'd likely want to ensure Ukrainians would want to eventually go back to their home country when means having things rebuilt and safe.

At this point, it's probably best to at least get the US to return to some status quo of continuing some form of lend lease which the agreement would hopefully facilitate.
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I'm really wanting to see the public version because there is a bunch of edge cases and things that aren't clear on how exactly they'll play out (see: US air defense prodcurement being counted as 'contributions'). There is also a decade-long freeze on any disbursement, so may not relevant to lend-lease.

Fatsuit Shinji said:
Lend-lease never started for Ukraine precisely on the fact it or at least part of it had to be repaid. Everything Biden sent through the other aid programs were free of charge for Ukraine.
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Small caveat: some of the hardware transferred is effectively on-loan and (potentially) subject to be returned if demanded. But unlike the EU's frozen asset backed loans there was no expected repayment for Javelins/155mm/ATACMS etc.
 
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According to Denys Davydov, the new mineral deal is quite a bit better than the previous one, makes you wonder who was the hasty party at the table.
USA/Ukraine mineral deal analysis from Быть или channel:

So, the deal’s provisions — before and after.

This is phenomenal — what Ukraine has managed to achieve.

P.S. The deal points were published by Ukraine’s Minister of Economy, Yuliia Svyrydenko. You can also read them on In Factum.

1.

Before: Ukraine’s mineral resources were to be transferred to U.S. ownership until full compensation of $500 billion was repaid (Feb 17, The Telegraph).
After: Ukraine’s mineral resources remain under Ukraine’s ownership.

2.

Before: Ukraine contributed 67% of the revenues to the investment fund, the U.S. contributed 33%, and kept the rest (Feb 22, Radio NV).
After: Contribution is split 50/50. Fair and equal.

2a.
Before: The U.S. had 3 board members in the investment fund, Ukraine had 2; the U.S. had a majority when making decisions (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: Neither side holds a majority. (Presumably 3:3).

3.

Before: The U.S. hinted at interest in privatizing “Ukrnafta” and “Energoatom.”
After: Ukraine’s national assets are protected — no privatization of “Ukrnafta” or “Energoatom.”

4.

Before: Ukraine was expected to repay the U.S. for aid provided since 2022 (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: No debts. The U.S. can invest and earn profits, but Ukraine has no retroactive obligations

5.

Before: The agreement contradicted Ukraine’s path toward EU accession (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: The agreement complies with Ukraine’s Constitution and does not conflict with EU accession.

(Details of this point are not disclosed — possibly the U.S. no longer has “first rights” over Ukrainian resources, or the issue lies elsewhere.)

6.

Before: Ukraine paid 50% of CURRENT income from its resources (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: Ukraine contributes 50% of income from NEW investments in resources, oil, and gas. All revenue from current resources remains unchanged

7.

Targeted and limited changes are allowed. The agreement must be ratified by the Verkhovna Rada.

8.

The U.S. will help attract additional investments and technology. The fund is managed by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).

9.

The agreement provides tax guarantees. Income and contributions to the Fund are exempt from taxation.

There is also a sub-clause allowing Fund contributions not only in cash but also in the equivalent value of new weapons delivered to Ukraine (though this is not guaranteed).

Ukraine is also negotiating a ban on withdrawing funds from the Fund during the first 10 years — meaning the profits would be reinvested in new projects instead of being pocketed.
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Ukraine reddit and Spacebattles are fucking pissed Ukraine had to negotiate with the United States and pay via the mineral deal. Instead of continuing to get free shit like with the Biden administration. FFS United States had England, France, Russia and the rest of the Entente go literally bankrupt paying for U.S. weapons, ammo, food and other shit during WWI. And again during WWII before the Allies talks of Lend-Lease even began.

Edit: Been lurking on the Tanknet.org forum and one of users mentioned talking to Ukrainian Leo 2 tankers. Over their impressions of the Leopard 2 and one point of interest is they don't use the hull ammunition stowage over survivability concerns. Since it is unprotected and open to the crew compartment.
 
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Fatsuit Shinji said:
Ukraine reddit and Spacebattles are fucking pissed Ukraine had to negotiate with the United States and pay via the mineral deal. Instead of continuing to get free shit like with the Biden administration. FFS United States had England, France, Russia and the rest of the Entente go literally bankrupt paying for U.S. weapons, ammo, food and other shit during WWI. And again during WWII with the Allies talks of Lend-Lease even began.
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They're letting perfect be the enemy of good. Ukraine needs to survive as an independent country in order to repay its foreign aid. This deal establishes a framework for the U.S. to have tangible, material interests in Ukraine's continued existence.
 
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US Partially Lifts Military Aid Pause for Ukraine, as Peace Talks Slow
Trump administration approves its first $50M arms exports for Ukraine through direct commercial sales.
by Alex Raufoglu | May 1, 2025
This private information is unavailable to guests due to policies enforced by third-parties.
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Fatsuit Shinji said:
It's also their political bias interfering with Ukraine survival. As they have no issues over Ukraine paying back the EU, Canada and everyone else who's sending aid to them. Except the United States because of orange man bad is POTUS.
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Trump still could have used his Presidential Drawdown Authority as leverage (see the comment from Dr Michael Cecire at RAND in the news article above) against Moscow to get it to the negotiation table, instead of posting "Vladimir, STOP!" on TruthSocial.
 
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There is a difference between agreeing to a loan and getting a gift only to then be told you've got to pay it back.
The whole "yea but you've got no problem paying the EU back" also ignores that the vast bulk of what the EU and other have given them, where gifts. And not of the "here's a gift and we'll send you the bill later" variant.
As for this giving the US a tangible interest into Ukraine's future. This deal is never going to be important enough for the US to go to war over. The money the US is going to be putting into this and getting out of this won't even be a rounding error in the federal budget. Nor will it give the US access to any minerals it doesn't have on it's own soil. At best it would allow the US to frustrate the EU in getting natural resources from Ukraine. But the EU would be the main buyer of what ever Ukraine can dig or drill up. So frustrating them would rob the US of what ever money it's trying to recuperate.
All it's done has shown the US to be very petty and willing to back charge you for any aid it has already given you.
 
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Just a thread reminder, the mineral deal still needs to be ratified by Ukraine's parliament.


otherdispair said:
There is a difference between agreeing to a loan and getting a gift only to then be told you've got to pay it back.
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Agreed, it was a very bad look from Trump asking for repayment on already delivered aid that had come with no repayment conditions (to say nothing of using Pentagon fantasy numbers for value).
However I care to point out 3 things:

1) A fair bit of transfer of durable hardware (I want to say all but there are probably exceptions) is effectively zero-cost leases and subject to possible reclaimation. There are concerns about leaving Ukraine with the largest land force in Europe. So "fuck you, pay me or I take them back" was always a potential outcome. It'd just be a bitch move while combat is still ongoing
2) 500 billion was always a fantasy figure, and is pretty much standard Trump negotiation of starting from an unreasonable position.
3) Ukraine is working on purchase deals.


N Space said:
According to Denys Davydov, the new mineral deal is quite a bit better than the previous one, makes you wonder who was the hasty party at the table.
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The final deal is still an utter nothing burger, but at least its not a complete joke now. I'm curious if they kept the preamble.

Denys is referencing things that haven't been in the mineral deal since the initial proposal.
specifically
Before: Ukraine paid 50% of CURRENT income from its resources (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: Ukraine contributes 50% of income from NEW investments in resources, oil, and gas. All revenue from current resources remains unchanged
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That was out by the time of the first derailed signing.

Before: Ukraine was expected to repay the U.S. for aid provided since 2022 (Mar 27, Yaroslav Zheleznyak).
After: No debts. The U.S. can invest and earn profits, but Ukraine has no retroactive obligations
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That was also dropped from the agreement or at least tabled to the "we need to have a slap fight over how this fund will actually be administered" because the first draft agreement was full of "lolidk, we will figure this shit out later".

Fuck It We'll Do It Live said:
Trump still could have used his Presidential Drawdown Authority as leverage (see the comment from Dr Michael Cecire at RAND in the news article above) against Moscow to get it to the negotiation table, instead of posting "Vladimir, STOP!" on TruthSocial.
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Now I agree with you completely, as I think transferring a few B-2s to Ukraine as well as a hanger at guam would be the quickest way to get Russia to sign a ceasefire.

So I dunno if it was just getting Ukraine to heel, or if Trump really did give peace a chance for the longest day-1 of any president. But at least it looks like we're getting back to business as usual.
 
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What da fuck IMG_0452.webp
 
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Oxyjen said:
What da fuck View attachment 7307486
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One day earlier and better than Russia's Holiday. May 8th is the best victory day. Just the best. Russia was just copying us when they made their day May 9th. That's second place thinking. Who wants to come in second? Not my America. We're going to celebrate victory so much. So much. You'll all be tired from cheering on how much we won.

SBG said:

View attachment 7308223

More officials in the US are stating the US is done trying for a peace deal or won’t try mediating the process any longer.
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Did anyone honestly expect a different result?
I guess technically I did. I thought for sure Putin would take a shit peacedeal, keep arming separatists, and take few years to rearm and try again.[/spoiler]
 
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