India-Pakistan Conflict - Land Of The Indus Versus Land Of The Pure

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At this point, both countries are scrambling to either get clearance for, or to avoid, a retaliation from India. India's usually retaliated via an airstrike, but the last time around one of their (albeit shitty) jets got shot down. India has to retaliate somehow, in order to not look like a bunch of punk bitches and invite more terrorism from across the border like Europe does. The real question is if Pakistan attempts to intercept the strike, and if they do, how successful the interception goes. Ambushing the entire flight and humiliating India is most likely to escalate the situation further.
I doubt that Pakistani and Indian standards of integrating and coordinating all the aspects of their ground-based air defense and aerial assets are very good
 
Pakistan and India were setting up field howitzers in soccer fields you could find on Google Maps and still they couldn’t counter-battery each other.

The incompetence was equal parts staggering and hilarious. I’m so excited for this.
I'd say "jeet support & maintenance" is a massive debuff no matter the quality of the vehicle.

We could have given the jeets and pakjeets F35s and they'd find novel ways to break the planes through sheer incompetence.
You guys bring up a point I touched on but really should be prominent in any discussion:
All this hardware will only be as good as the operators and the operators are all Pakis & Jeets.

The only planes in this dust up that for-certain would be competently maintained would be Pakistan's F-16s but that because their contract includes Gyatt-Dyanamics maintenance via US military aid. Every other plane will be a toss up. And for india, that's a real toss up. Their units range all over from "actually competent" to "DO NOT REDEEM PLANE SAAR"

For Pilots... lets just say both Countries have a lot of prove.
But again, they won't ever get the chance, this is going to go like 2019, though India probably won't lose a plane this time.

At this point, both countries are scrambling to either get clearance for, or to avoid, a retaliation from India. India's usually retaliated via an airstrike, but the last time around one of their (albeit shitty) jets got shot down. India has to retaliate somehow, in order to not look like a bunch of punk bitches and invite more terrorism from across the border like Europe does. The real question is if Pakistan attempts to intercept the strike, and if they do, how successful the interception goes. Ambushing the entire flight and humiliating India is most likely to escalate the situation further.
India will launch airstrikes on militant bases. The first wave will be their upper-tier jets as they precision strike shit deep in Kashmir. After that, they will be using old planes to bomb positions close to the LOC in response to militant attacks. This is to avoid escalation. Pakistan is more interested in just making life hard for India than serious combat and escalations. This is why Pakistan's response in 2019 was limited to shooting down one MiG-21 with busted warning radar, and also why they returned the pilot ASAP.

India may make limited cross-border incursions with special forces to secure intelligence targets, but it will be fast raids with CT vehicles not rolling heavy steel. India doesn't have armor in the region to make that sort of play and there is currently no political will to upset the current status quo - or more accurately, incur the costs not only in terms of dead soldiers & war expenses but also in international rebuke & sanctions + ratchet up tensions with China.

India is also not in a position to fuck around because:
The US is unlikely to respond positively to open war with Pakistan at present as there is no open beef with Pakistan at current, which is a major source of military support and replenishment in the case of a serious conflict. India has hedged it bets with inroads with Russia as an alternate source, but Russia is currently tied up in its own military adventure and would not be able to provide serious aid.

Pakistan would probably be able to count on aid from China, but China lacks the logistics to aid in any meaningful way except for launching its own strikes against India.
 
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>mfw waiting for something to happen
all I ask is for something good to happen this year and I am repeatedly denied. I know nothing ever happens, but come the fuck on, someone send some spoofed paki taunting emails or something to the indian government to make them tard rage out and cleanse their entire subcontinent of subhumans with nuclear fire. I'm dying over here.
If you want something to happen so bad then send them a message with bobs and/or vagene in it asking for the nuclear codes.
 
Ohh shiiiiittt I'm gonna SPERG!!!!


Pakistan's F-16s should be in the "Good" column, they are going to be on the upper end of the F-16 spectrum, but they would only be able to be used defensively or with US permission (which they won't get). So that's a pretty big asterisk.

The MiG-29s should definitely be moved to "Good" as they are MiG-29M/2nd gen equivalent upgrades. Mirages are probably fine where they are, they are upgraded but not to latest spec.

JF-17 needs to be in the Mediocre at best. Also the Su-30s are Mk1 and probably need to go in the Mediocre block. The Tejas are Rafales with worse engines and indian QC.
I'd say maybe the J-10 too, but there is no reliable data about performance.

Jaguars are good, reliable attack craft with AtA capabilities. They are going to be fucked if they're the ones getting hunted, but as deterrence and ground attack they're more than capable. I'd say they should be mediocre but ranking jets is almost pointless.

Given neither side has stealth craft, what's really going to matter is missile quality and quantity.

The JF-17 is essentially a F-5E or even F-20 of you told the design team you have to use Russian or Chinese engines. It's a small, cheap lightweight fighter than it's essentially in the same weight class as a Mig-21 / F-5 with a more modern radar and ability to carry a few more weapons and drop smart bombs and carry a targeting pod.

The Western equivalent is the S. Korean F/A-50, as used the S. Korea, Iraq, Poland, the Philippines, Indonesia and others.

The Su-30MKI was probably the best Su-30 derivative on Earth until the Chinese J-16 entered service where it's now second best, coequal with the Russian So-30SM2. It's an excellent heavyweight fighter and India is insane to not buy 4-5 more squadrons of them because of.....

Tejas. Development started in 1983, it entered service in.... A LIMITED CAPACITY....2017.

They're already on the Mk1A variant.

It's literally a more modern Mig-21 class jet, cranked delta wing, small, short legs and a relatively small payload.

Uses the same engine (F404) as the F/A-50 and the next version will use the F414. Probably slightly better flight performance than the JF-17 but there are ~100-120 more JF-17s in service than Tejas and even the 40 of the one service Tejas are really "interim" jets that aren't FOC.

MiG-29Ms have fared poorly in Ukraine against SU-34/35s, It has been 3 years and I cannot recall a single time a MiG-29 (or any variant thereof) has shot down an SU-27, 30, 34, or 35. In general, it seems like the big fighters (SU-27, F-15) have aged much better than their small contemporaries (MiG-29, F-16). Of course, as you said, Pakistan isn't running around with upgraded SU-35s and the like, so this may be the MiG's first time to shine.

Ukrainian Mig-29s are essentially unupgraded USSR vintage barring a few with the UPG upgrade kit. The Mig-29 always had a worse radar and ECM suite than the F-16 since the mid 1980s (F-16C Block 30/32 and beyond or even MLU F-16As) and when it fought Su-27s and F-15s it was easily outclassed.

Remember, the Mig-29 was really a Mig-21/23 replacement, a shorter ranged point defense fighter.

The MiG-29/31 is an airsuperiority fighter. Its designed to operate at high altitudes for AtA roles, something that just doesn't materialize in Ukraine. The AAD density keeps both sides launching at stand-off ranges. The issue with the MiG-29 (and 31 which is just an upgraded 29) is that its a bit of a hanger queen and IIRC nearly all of Russian losses after the first couple months have been due to pilot error or airframe failure.

edit: Oh there was one MiG-31 that got got by Ukaine doing a SAM-ambush. But not regular occurance; Russia doesn't use their MiG-29s much because they have Su-34 and Su-35 which are much more appropriate to the environment and, to try to keep the geopolitics brief, a high-flying long range Mig-29/31 air superiority fighter getting close to NATO borders is more likely to get knickers in twists than a Mult-role shorter range Su-34/35

Another thing to remember, as we talk about operating ceilings, is that any combat will take place at a much higher elevation than the current kurfluffle in Ukraine. Upper cap and engine performance numbers that don't matter when you're over flat land are likely to start mattering a whole lot when the ground is 5000ft up.

Russian stopped using Mig-29s except in the Navy before 2020.

The Patriot ambush got Su-30s and Su-35s/Su-34s.

However, Russian Mig-31s have been shooting down Ukraine Mig-29s for years with their R-37Ms.

Also, the Su-27/30/34/35 have insane ranges as they have Massive internal fuel reserves and relatively efficient engines for Russian jets.

The JF-17 is absolute garbage. They were made to be SAM-soakers for Pakistan's F-16s. They are better than nothing, but their engines are garbage, the avionics are shit, and they mainly rely on the missiles to do the heavy lifting.
Basically as the F-16 was supposed to be a cheap fighter to protect other dedicated craft, the JF-17 is that but even cheaper to screen their F-16s. They are good for bombing the Taliban and making your opponent have to plan around something that launch sidewinders, but they operate on the premise "4 mediocre jets with heatseekers are more likely to get an enemy to turn around than 2 good jets"

The J-10 however has very limited data. And more importantly, instead of the JF-17 "multirole" the J-10 is primarily intended for air superiority missions (but lacks the performance to be classed as such). In that case the engines are garbage, but the avionics are improved and its possible, especially against India's older craft, it might prove itself.

JF-17 can launch Chinese AMRAAM clones (PL-12 and PL-15) just fine so it's already outclassing every Mig-21 Bison still in service plus the Jaguars.

The J-10s that Pakistan got are the 3rd Gen export models (J-10CE) that have either PESA or AESA radars and can also fire AMRAAM class missiles. The domestic Chinese ones have AESA sets but we're not sure if China trusts Pakistan THAT much. Even then a PESA set is an improvement over a mechanically scanned radar all day.

The J-10 is essentially the Chinese F-16 and it's been continually updated since service entry in 2002. It's also multirole and has targeting pod capabilities and can do ground attack just fine.
 
It seems that not a lot has been talked about how drones might play into all of this. The battlefront is going to largely be mountainous, right? Consumer drones I figure could be extremely useful in this regard like they were in dealing with trenches in Ukraine. I get the notion that if this conflict does go hot that the Howitzers and similarly less mobile weapons may be prime targets. If they don't have good defenses from the drones then a shitty, cheap drone and some basic explosives could total those guns.

I also wonder if Iran would try and sell their drones to Pakistan or even gift them some. Pakistan is a friend of China and Iran is more friendly with China, isn't it? Seems like they'd be helping China by helping Pakistan even if China doesn't join the conflict.
 
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It seems that not a lot has been talked about how drones might play into all of this
Hard to say how they'll be used. Ukraine has been one scenario, with one cultural context under it. India is a completely different one, and I assume Pakistan is similar in that regard. In Eastern Europe, you're talking militaries that have to worry about a few weapons disappearing off a truck every time they send more to the frontline. In India, those weapons aren't even going to be moving off base to field units because the commander can make himself look more important and capable by having a big fancy armory of all these weapons at hand. Or worse, refusing to hand them out to ensure his subordinates can't succeed enough to be considering to replace him.

They're still an Asian-descended "Face" based culture, where reputation and presentation matters more than most other things. This is why we have clownish photos of their border dance-offs and shit. Being effective doesn't matter, looking effective to the right people at the right times does. Making sure you're not outshined by your supposed peers matters more than ensuring you all make it to success. If anything, a few of them failing is preferable, makes you look all the better when you succeed.
 
Once the walls have cracked on their position in the progressive stack, they're free game for further attacks on their legitimately horrifying treatment of women, their abysmal environmental activity, and the fact that they still struggle to escape an at-birth class based societies trappings with their caste system. India's a huge pile of all the shit they hate the most, and if it becomes a legitimate target due to that one failing, all of it is gonna become free game as the lefties move to one-up each other on suddenly dislikingthem.
Also don't forget that modern India is a complete invention of the British those large parts of India that should be independent Living in it that they literally suppress with violence also large parts of India also rightfully Nepalese territory but imperialism is okay because reasons
 
At least in this conflict the powers that be haven't decided on the mainstream media position, so one can actually see both sides reporting. Just from the language in the title of the various news articles you can tell which side they support, absolutely 0 attempt to remain unbiased from Muslim or Indian sources. Refreshing after all the propagandized bullshit over Ukraine and Gaza that we've had to be able to observe such funny nationalistic seething from two nations I hate anyway clamoring for war while hating the other side with no nuance whatsoever. 3rd world wars are certainly comfy observing.
 
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I wonder if China will try and influence Pakistan to go after some of the manufacturing and technology centers in order to strike back at the US indirectly. With things like iPhones now being made in India because of the tarrifs and trade war, China could be banking on forcing US companies' manufacturing to go back to China. It's hard to make jeetPhones if the factory or suppliers are smoldering craters. Add to that the IT support for many US companies are outsourced to India either directly or contract through Infosys, Cognizant, Tata, Capgemini, etc. We can hope Pakistan or China goes after the undersea cables to cut India off from the rest of the (big I) Internet.

Internet cable map:
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