White Smoke Watch 2025

Who will be the next pope?

  • Tagle (67, Philippines)

    Votes: 29 5.7%

  • Parolin (70, Italy)

    Votes: 18 3.5%

  • Zuppi (69, Italy)

    Votes: 7 1.4%

  • Besungu (65, DR Congo)

    Votes: 28 5.5%

  • Erdo (72, Hungary)

    Votes: 17 3.3%

  • Ouellet (80, Canada)

    Votes: 1 0.2%

  • Turkson (76, Ghana)

    Votes: 9 1.8%

  • Burke (76, USA)

    Votes: 19 3.7%

  • Sarah (79, Guinea)

    Votes: 56 10.9%

  • Eijk (71, Netherlands)

    Votes: 5 1.0%

  • Scola (82, Italy)

    Votes: 5 1.0%

  • Jesus Christine Weston Chandler Sonichu (43, CWCVille)

    Votes: 319 62.2%
  • Total voters
    513
mindlessobserver said:
Lots of people have theoretical military service but are highly trained for the theoretical scenario. So no, there hasn't been a situation where the Guard has actually had to take positions behind statues of Saints and start dumping mags. Its a fair criticism to be sure since its impossible to know just how a unit will perform until its actually being shot at. But at least in theory these dudes take their jobs very seriously, and they do go in suits with the Pope when he does foreign trips to work the same role the Secret Service does for US Presidents.
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I meant more that they take ex police/military squads with exemplary service as guard. Though having a part of the guard go PMC every couple of months is also a good alternative.
 
George Lucas said:
The flawed dichotomy here is thinking that voting is not a reflection of God’s Will while luck is. Your example doesn’t support that dichotomy at all.
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I'm not a Catholic so have no investment in this nor am speaking from place of spiritual insight. But from an outsider's point of view, he seems to have got you. And saying it's different because it's deciding between two previously selected contenders doesn't appear to be a meaningful difference. The same would apply to Cardinals. And 2/12 (Apostles) is a lot higher proportion to apply random chance to than 17 out all Catholic males (shortlist for pope). In any case, the key is that phrase "random chance". The belief would be that it is not as in the text @Cassius Crayfish cites, the apostles are not deciding by luck, but asking God to guide the outcome.

I will make clear that I'm not invested here. For me, some sort of armed or unarmed combat to become next pope would be best imo, both because it would be (a) most entertaining, (b) would lead to cardinals and bishops having martial arts training as part of their duties which is badass, and (c) would give us the best chance of the next pope being Cardinal Sarah who is a farmer's son from rural Guinea and bet would give a good account of himself wielding a sceptre.
 
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Overly Serious said:
I'm not a Catholic so have no investment in this nor am speaking from place of spiritual insight. But from an outsider's point of view, he seems to have got you. And saying it's different because it's deciding between two previously selected contenders doesn't appear to be a meaningful difference. The same would apply to Cardinals. And 2/12 (Apostles) is a lot higher proportion to apply random chance to than 17 out all Catholic males (shortlist for pope). In any case, the key is that phrase "random chance". The belief would be that it is not as in the text @Cassius Crayfish cites, the apostles are not deciding by luck, but asking God to guide the outcome.

I will make clear that I'm not invested here. For me, some sort of armed or unarmed combat to become next pope would be best imo, both because it would be (a) most entertaining, (b) would lead to cardinals and bishops having martial arts training as part of their duties which is badass, and (c) would give us the best chance of the next pope being Cardinal Sarah who is a farmer's son from rural Guinea and bet would give a good account of himself wielding a sceptre.
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The solution is the order of operations here. Before choosing Matthias, the Apostles worked together to find the two best candidates. They simply could not decided between the two of them. Another poster has already explained that the first deacons were voted on later. Democracy has been a tradition since the very foundation of the Church whereas lots were used one time. There are even commentators who believe that the Apostles made a mistake because ultimately God brought in Paul. Both Matthias and Joseph are saints and neither is considered better than the other. St. Matthias is usually not depicted on icons of the 12 Apostles (he is replaced by Paul).
 
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The conclave is about the begin!
Fake news posts are already being spread on social media, claiming that Sarah or Tagle was elected (including AI-generated images).
Screenshot 2025-05-07 at 12-28-50 Disinformation and conspiracy theories circulate as papal c...webp
Meanwhile, cardinal Parolin was targeted with false reports of him falling ill. The same thing reportedly happened to Francis before his election.

Disinformation, conspiracy theories circulate as papal conclave begins (a)​

Disinformation circulating online has been sowing confusion as the secretive conclave to elect the next pope kicks off in the Vatican on Wednesday.

The conclave follows the death of Pope Francis, an event which was also marred by a wave of disinformation. Considered one of the most progressive figures to have served as pope, the late pontiff was frequently targeted by false narratives, prompting him to denounce disinformation as “dangerous”, and a “tragedy” that “foments conflict.”

The closed-door conclave that begins on Wednesday will see 133 Cardinal electors isolate themselves within the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel, with one round of voting expected to take place on Wednesday followed by four rounds each day before a cardinal receives the two-thirds majority needed to be elected pope.

The process will take as long as it needs to achieve the necessary majority, although the three most recent conclaves have all lasted less than three days.

Cardinals are sworn to secrecy about the voting process.

But the conclave has been tainted by a raft of false claims and conspiracy theories that have been circulating online in recent weeks.

Online users falsely claim pope has already been elected​

Euroverify identified several unfounded claims that the pope had already been elected before the conclave had taken place.

As early as 21 April, a video emerged on YouTube – purporting to be a news report – claiming that the Philippines’ Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle had been selected.

The false report, first spotted by Filipino digital news media The Rappler, is headlined "Breaking: Cardinal Tagle Elected As Pope Luis I."

Cardinal Tagle is being tipped as one of the leading candidates to replace Pope Francis once the conclave has concluded.

The 67-year-old Filipino has decades of cardinal experience and is considered to belong to the "moderate" wing of the Catholic Church. He’s also been dubbed by some as the "Asian Francis" due to his concern for the poor and the marginalised which came to distinguish Pope Francis.

Tagle has however faced criticism for what some consider his timid response to sexual abuse allegations against Catholic Church members and the the brutal crackdown in his native Phillippines at the hands of former president Rodrigo Duterte, now facing trial before the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Similar false claims purporting Cardinal Robert Sarah – considered a favourite among the most conservative of the vote-holding cardinals – has been elected pope have been circulating, mainly on Facebook and TikTok.

A Facebook post published by a bot-like account reads: “Breaking news: The new pope has just been announced.”

It’s accompanied by an AI-generated photo showing Cardinal Sarah in the papal dress, against the backdrop of the Vatican. A reverse-image search shows there is no published evidence that Cardinal Sarah has ever worn the attire, and the photo is flagged as AI-manipulated by three AI detection tools consulted by Euroverify.

There is no truth to these claims. The papal seat has been vacant since Pope Francis’ death, a period known as Sede Vacante, and will remain so until the conclave has concluded.

Holy See refutes claims Cardinal Parolin’s health has declined​

Another Cardinal considered a frontrunner to be the next pope, Italy’s Pietro Parolin, has been targeted with a raft of false news reports about a decline in his health days before the conclave.

Italian outlets have tried to point the finger at US Catholic news site Catholicvote.org, which published the misleading report on 1 May citing “Italian media sources”.

But the news also featured in Italian sites such as Virgilio and Il Giornale, and were in turn amplified by journalists on social media.

A spokesperson for the Holy See Press Office flatly denied those claims during a press briefing last Friday, and the Press Office later released a statement saying that “during the meeting with journalists, the Director of the Holy See Press Office, Matteo Bruni, refuted the hypothesis of Cardinal Pietro Parolin falling ill, specifying that no such incident had occurred. He also denied the involvement of medical or nursing staff.”

Analysts have long denounced how false rumours can discredit candidates in the run-up to a new appointment, with Pope Francis facing similar false reports about his health in the run-up to the 2013 conclave.

Cardinal Parolin – formerly Pope Francis’ chief advisor – is being touted as one of the strongest papabiles, or candidates to be elected the next pope.

Disinformation about conclave takes aim at The Guardian​

A doctored screenshot mimicking a Guardian op-ed titled "The next pope must be Muslim or there will be violence on the streets of Europe" has also been circulating online.

The op-ed is falsely attributed to journalist Yasmin Alibhai-Brown. Both The Guardian and Alibhai-Brown have confirmed that they never published such an article.

A look at The Guardian’s author page for Alibhai-Brown also shows that she hasn’t written for the publication since 2016.

A closer look at the screenshot shows that the logo says ‘The Grauniad’, a well-known colloquial name for the British newspaper, showing how it has been doctored.

The screenshot was first published by an X account named ‘The Grauniad Official’, which consistently attributes false headlines to The Guardian.
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do not fall for the Tagle meme. His reputation is on the gutter. He had a bad administration of Caritas (official charity org of the Vatican), is in favor of the China deal (the CCP chooses the bishops and bishops and priest have to push what the State says), and it has now come out that he is a gambling addict
he has 0,01% chance of becoming Pope. But ya never know (it's joever if he gets elected)
 
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Mary the Goldsmith said:
How long do you think the Conclave will take this time? IIRC Francis was elected in two days.
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I expect a pope by Friday, the last conclave to last more than four days was in 1830 where it took about three weeks. Ever since, it's been resolved in two days with a few exception going up to three or four days.
 
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24nagging said:
do not fall for the Tagle meme. His reputation is on the gutter. He had a bad administration of Caritas (official charity org of the Vatican), is in favor of the China deal (the CCP chooses the bishops and bishops and priest have to push what the State says), and it has now come out that he is a gambling addict
he has 0,01% chance of becoming Pope. But ya never know (it's joever if he gets elected)
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Stfu rat, Pope Gamba I will win it big and fuck your mom whether rigging rats such as you like it or not.
 
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Is there a livestream that is solely focused on the chimney? The livestreams I'm seeing on YouTube are focused on the Vatican Square.
 
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