Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

  • 🔧 At about Midnight EST I am going to completely fuck up the site trying to fix something.
Latest Covert Cabal satellite imagery of decaying Russia storage bases video; Russia has apparently nearly run out of tanks in storage:
"With Virtually Every Russian Ground Forces Base Empty, Can They Defend The Motherland?", May 20, 2025:
A /pol/ post summarizes it:
OSINT researcher Covert Cabal (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=niEjgNGa9Ho) analyzed satellite images of the permanent deployment points (PDPs) of Russian divisions and brigades and noted how empty they have become.

He points out that for decades, PDPs were densely packed with combat and logistical vehicles – after all, any brigade has hundreds of them, and a division has even more.
Nevertheless, many bases now look like ghost towns – only a few vehicles remain parked on their territory, especially in the central and eastern parts of the country.
Russia maintains a certain military presence at bases located near the borders with NATO countries.
For example, bases of units near the border with Finland and Estonia continue to show signs of activity, albeit somewhat reduced.
Bases in the Kaliningrad region have also become significantly, though not completely, empty.
Covert Cabal emphasizes: Russia has never before left its central regions exposed to such an extent.
This is particularly important from a political point of view, as significant forces were previously stationed there to deter or suppress possible attempts to seize power (recalling the events of 1991 and 1993 in Moscow).
The previous Covert Cabal video from two weeks ago:
"What Remains of the Centuries Old Omsk Arsenal (94th)", April 30, 2025:
What Remains of the Centuries Old Omsk Arsenal (94th) - YouTube - 0-5-09.webpWhat Remains of the Centuries Old Omsk Arsenal (94th) - YouTube - 0-5-34.webp



Andrii Portnov, an adviser to Yanukovych, the latter currently in ziggerdom exile, got ACK'D in Spain. A veteran of many criminal cases against him, it looks like this was finally settled out of court. See AP link for more.
 
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Latest Covert Cabal satellite imagery of decaying Russia storage bases video; Russia has apparently nearly run out of tanks in storage:
Just a reminder for thread expectations:
it is likely that even when the last vehicle is removed they will provide grist for the Soviet defense industry for probably another 3 years and only then will the gulf between net-new production and losses be felt.

also a reminder when to comes to massive losses in equipment, Russia is better able to control the loss rate than Ukaine (read: They can stop sending 50 IFVs in single file through a minefield five at a time whenever they want, but then they won't move the front line another 3 inches) so it might be significantly longer than 3 years.


how do americans benefit from nato though
The NATO umbrella stops fuck-fuck games like we see in Ukraine and thus ensures the US is only facing off against Russia instead of Russia + Poland + Baltics + Austria+ Yugoslavia.

Additionally the US gains basing, and ensures a standardization of equipment that ensures European nations will be able to aid each other.

That's a lot of money that would have hopefully, in Washington's mind, have gone to American industries that Vance and the White House have worked hard to try scaring away by suggesting Europe's security is completely irrelevant to the US.
That's just straight false. Europe wouldn't have made any moves about increasing defense spend without Vance/Trump scaring them into it. That extra 1 - 1.5% wouldn't have ever been approved and wouldn't have been spent. 100% of zero is still zero.

NATO means a defacto captive market for US defense systems as none to few of the European counterparts exist at scale.
Massive Rainbow. Euro militaries are always buying other shit from each other or trying to make their own domestic platforms.

See: Typhoon (and tornado before), the Ajax/Boxer, Marder, Leopard/Challenger/LeClerc, Polish K-2s, everything out of Sweden that Denmark & Norway bought, France, etc. The issue is they can't do it at scale.

This "Well ACKSHULLAY it makes Europe a US arms market" narrative is gay and lame. The US sells weapons because, as we've seen demonstrated repeatedly over the past three years, they are just simply better (if vastly more expensive). The Abrams is in use in a lot of countries that aren't in NATO. The F-16 as well - Pakistan isn't exactly a stalwart US ally. The US doesn't have issues selling its weapons despite Euro fakemald about the F-35's software updates.

NATO security umbrella also provides a culturally compatible trading partners which are mostly democratic states.
You're close.
From a defense logistics perspective, what the US gains is the ability to say "No, fuck you France & Belgium, you will have a platform that takes these common ammunition types instead of your retarded proprietary moon rounds of which you can only make 40 a month."
Thus when the US once again has to show up to save Europe from their own retardation, at least there will be a stock of ammunition the US forces can use.

What America loses in paying for NATO it makes up for in export customers and reduced personnel requirements.
That COULD be true but hasn't been true for a long time as we're seeing in Ukraine. German ammunition stock piles were worthless, forces in complete unreadiness, and completely dependent on energy shipments from the region's #1 expansionist threat.

Not anymore considering they all coped, seethed, and cried on camera when Vance told them they were a bunch of censorious fuckwits.

You're quite right, but...

A fight in Eastern Europe between Russia and someone who isn't a NATO member isn't an issue of immediate concern for us, not when you've got shit like the Houthis fucking with international shipping (but that's been dealt with IIRC), and especially not when the Europeans themselves who should theoretically be the ones most involved, contributing aid, and concerned with stopping Russian expansion are the ones directly funding the Russian war machine!
Exactly this.
Additionally now that Germany isn't on the front line anymore, the German powers are expressing reluctance to have Germans go fight and die on foreign soil for neighboring nations. Despite Germany having much more to lose from Russia conquering Ukraine.

Or the Euros refusing to acknowledge it was Germany and France who blocked Ukraine from joining NATO in 2009. Or that the North African, Middle East and Persian oil mostly goes to them, central and eastern Asia and it have been the United States who been keeping the oil flowing to them. Then there's France and other euro nations have been keeping Iran funded by continuing to buy their oil and other goods to spite the United States on its sanctions on Iran since the Iranian Revolution.
Yup.
Again, everyone plays their own little fuckfuck games that's just how it works. But it is galling when the Euros roll up trying to be "we good boys dindu nuffin" when they have been depending on the US to pay for their security while doing everything to undermine their protector and increase the cost of providing said security.

"the US receives great tangible and intangible benefits as defacto leader of NATO" and "The Eurocucks really need to stop acting like they are worthwhile allies when they very much aren't" are not mutually exclusive positions.

Sanctions aren't worthless. Russia's share in hydrocarbon markets has shrunken, but anything related to dual use electronics and similar will be evaded in Ivan's sleep.
They aren't worthless but even with sanctions the EU is still sending 3x the money to Russia that they are to Ukraine.

They are also quietly just outsourcing operations to nations outside the EU, mainly Turkey, so they are still buying Russian energy it is just laundered through another nation.

Take the current sanctions on the shadow fleet. they sanctions 200 vessels out of an estimate 1000. 20% is still 20% more than before, but its still a small portion of the problem.

The benefit for the US was double.
The first spoken out load part was not having the soviet right on the Atlantic by keeping a buffer in between.
As a bonus having to contend with Western Europe meant that the soviets had to invest tons and tons of resources into a vast ground army limiting what it could invest in it's navy and air-force. So even if Western Europe fell it would still take the soviets decades to build up it's naval forces.
The second not spoken out load part was keeping the Europeans down.
During the whole Cold War Europe was spending a lower % of GDP on defense than the US was, but no one cared. Why? Well the US didn't just want to keep the soviets from the Atlantic, they didn't and still don't want any potential adversary on the Atlantic.
The US didn't complain about 80 years of not meeting NATO targets unless it got it's self involved in some other conflict and suddenly it wants the Europeans to spend more to help them directly or at least allow them to reduce their commitment in Europe.
But why would the Europeans spend more? they know that the US doesn't want them to use their armies unilaterally like in the Sues affair.
No one bitched because until 1991 European nations maintained at least credible defense forces that would have at least required consideration from Soviet warplanners.
No one bitched from 1991 to 2014 because Russia was being a rational player which minus actions in Georgia and Chechnya wasn't trying to expand its borders in any meaningful way, and getting Russia brought into the Global economy seemed to be the best way to ensure they'd continue to play nicely.
When that was proven false, and EU/Europe refused to change course (which might or might not be becasue of Stasi sleeper agents in the German government) THEN it became a problem, as it also highlighted how much rot had set in on European defense.

That being said if Europe really wants to spook the US into recommitting to NATO, have a few Chinese submarines do a tour of Western European ports.
That will make the "keep hostile powers out of the Atlantic and keep the Europeans weak and friendly" thing very salient to the US again.
Oh man yeah we wouldn't want Europe to allow hostile foreign powers to set up operations bases in Europe
That would simply be out of character for Europe.
Could anyone imagine the stalwart allies of European nations allowing their protector's #1 geopolitcal rival toeholds in their countries? Just unprecedented. Clearly Trump is off his rocker about Europe being unable to defend themselves and selling themselves to security threats.

I feel like a large part of that is that Europe is wanting to invest more in domestic defense industries rather than stay too dependent on US weapons.
The US wants more Europe-domestic production too. A lot of the US aid to Ukraine is eaten by shipping costs. When the next thing pops off in europe, 155mm factories in Denmark and Czechia is significantly more valuable than plants in Scranton and Texas.

Industrial production is icky and non-green though.

I have a sneaking suspicion that there is more to the Trump/Vance shift in rhetoric.
They assumed that if they went to Europe and make a big statement about things that the right cares a lot about and they back the European far right.
Come off it.
Here's what caused the shift:
European countries approved the requested defense investment and many are looking at upping to 3.5% (not that it'll go anywhere lol but hey even the attempt is more than before)
Trump got what he wanted. Asking nicely didn't work, so he had to get the stick. The job done, the stick goes away until its needed again.

Most far-right parties and candidates (especially in Eastern Europe) seem to have trouble distancing themselves from Russia and how they were originally funded.
Most far left parties are also funded by Russia, but they have other sources of funds they are able to tap into because the powers that be either agree with them or count them useful idiots so they aren't debanked and supporters turned into pariahs by the press. Higher percentages of the Euro right-wing parties budgets come from Russian sources but Russia fuels the extremes of both wings because it causes political unrest.
 
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Trump: Putin won't end war because he believes he's winning – WSJ - but no new sanctions




Large scale attack on Russia with over 150 drones Inc Moscow region. Bolhovsky semi conductor plant, Bolkov, Oryol region is possibly the most notable hit.

Ukraine Cites Mossad as Assassinations Multiply


One continuity is how fearful Euro and American leaders are of Russian red lines, which invariably means coping and malding, but nothing more.

Hopefully Dugin can be targeted again, but hopefully take out some of his fans too, a sorry collection of Euro and American weirdos.
 
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Most far-right parties and candidates (especially in Eastern Europe) seem to have trouble distancing themselves from Russia and how they were originally funded.
It depends half the time neolibs will just call anyone who disagrees with them a Russian bot. However there are definitely real people who are bought and payed for.
It's important to remember as well that Putin engineered the racial replacement and humiliation of Belarusians and continues to push it while importing people from places like Kazakhstan and Africa to Russia. All of that along with the famous video where he made Rusich grovel to Chechens.
 
The second not spoken out load part was keeping the Europeans down.
During the whole Cold War Europe was spending a lower % of GDP on defense than the US was, but no one cared. Why? Well the US didn't just want to keep the soviets from the Atlantic, they didn't and still don't want any potential adversary on the Atlantic.
The US didn't complain about 80 years of not meeting NATO targets unless it got it's self involved in some other conflict and suddenly it wants the Europeans to spend more to help them directly or at least allow them to reduce their commitment in Europe.
While entirely correct to those who bother to pay attention to the nitty gritty details of how the world really works. To the average Joe Blow who does the 9 to 5, comes home to get shit face, grill and maybe fuck the spouse or other. They're not going to pay attention to any of that and gone by whatever the talking heads tell them. So when they see no tangible, physical returns on the taxes they pay to "defend" other countries, those countries REEEing at the suggestion maybe they should help with their defense. Fellow Americans being deployed, injured and killed keeping the oil flowing and the Muslims getting rich without doing anything other than letting Americans put military bases in their countries. Oh yes the average American John and Jane smuck are gonna turn fuck the world isolationist eventually and that eventuality is here.
 
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One continuity is how fearful Euro and American leaders are of Russian red lines, which invariably means coping and malding, but nothing more.
I don't even think its Russia's red lines so much as Putin's.
This isn't an existential war for Russia, but it is for Putin. I don't think any general is going to permit the authorization of nukes over Kursk. Coup would be preferable to nuclear exchange.

Oh yes the average American John and Jane smuck are gonna turn fuck the world isolationist eventually and that eventuality is here.
The us political elite might not be tired of running a global empire for little tangible benefit but the population is getting there.

It's false that they're planning to invest more in defense? What are you talking about?
Its false any of that money from increased would have made it to the US, because they wouldn't have ever increased budgets.

I see Euros in this thread and elsewhere talking about these serious "investigations" into buying US weapons as they up their budgets and how its such a serious dunking on the US that this money won't go to the US defense industry.

But that completely ignores if Vance hadn't shat on the Euros, they never would have spent more on defense. We know this because the European NATO members been asked politely about it for two decades and in response have only cut budgets and further eroded force readiness (except for former Soviet Satellites).
So if the whip was never cracked, the Euro defense budget increases would be 0%. 100% of zero is still zero.
As there never would have been additional money, "That's a lot of money that would have hopefully, in Washington's mind, have gone to American industries that Vance and the White House have worked hard to try scaring away by suggesting Europe's security is completely irrelevant to the US." is gay Eurocope.

Doubly so because by making the Euros actually fund their militaries (and re-open defense production), once everyone has completed their chest-puffing exercises to make it clear that they aren't America's puppets, probably a good portion of that extra spend will come to US companies or the Euro-branches there of, due to the lack of other viable options.
 
While entirely correct to those who bother to pay attention to the nitty gritty details of how the world really works. To the average Joe Blow who does the 9 to 5, comes home to get shit face, grill and maybe fuck the spouse or other. They're not going to pay attention to any of that and gone by whatever the talking heads tell them. So when they see no tangible, physical returns on the taxes they pay to "defend" other countries, those countries REEEing at the suggestion maybe they should help with their defense. Fellow Americans being deployed, injured and killed keeping the oil flowing and the Muslims getting rich without doing anything other than letting Americans put military bases in their countries. Oh yes the average American John and Jane smuck are gonna turn fuck the world isolationist eventually and that eventuality is here.
The return on bases overseas is the reserve status of the dollar (a far more important thing than the nominally gold based pegged currency Bretton Woods system as modern currencies are fiudiciary) and America's prosperity. There should be more education on the topic inc how most American Ukraine aid is spent in the US benefitting everyone from a munition workers to freight companies (the last is a bit unneeded as Ukraine can air freight almost anything).
 
It's certainly thunk provoking. Orbán and Fico are notorious Kremlin catamites. Yet both are fading forces even with Orbán's incumbent tilted voting system. Farage and Le Pen have records of Kremlin funding and connections
It's not as warm a relationship as you think.
The far right in Europe is quite limited in resources/power (within the grand total of Europe). So when the russians or chinks come and offer them some of their resources that's very, very welcome. The far right knows that it stinks, but they don't care because they see/saw immigration ect as THE issue and those resources help with that. It also doesn't help that there are quite a few grifters in the far right that will suck cock for cash.
But in the end that's it a quid pro quo.
The moment that the russians can't scratch theirs they stop scratching it's.
Or if they don't need it anymore. Like in Italy where the far right is both pro-Ukraine and anti-CCP

I'm not excusing them being a bitch boy for pay to putin. Nor am I denying that there are true zigger believers.
But just pointing out that it has always been an opportunistic relationship.

Now if you want to see some true to go open and honest ziggering and chinking go look at the various communist and repackaged communist parties and movements across Europe and in southern Europe in particular.

European nations maintained at least credible defense forces

If the russians didn't think that that Europe doesn't pose a military threat, why didn't the russians go for Finland instead of Ukraine?
It's not a part of NATO, there isn't a US commitment to defend it. It has a smaller population and military than Ukraine. It more difficult to supply relying on a couple of roads in the north and it's rail network doesn't use the same gauge as the rest of Europe. Most of it's population, industry ect is along the gulf of Finland less than 250km from the border with russia.
Failing to defend Finland would have shattered the EU and then Ukraine and the rest of Eastern Europe is yours for the taking.
They probably didn't because in the EU there are about 1.5 million professional soldiers and about an other half a million more in the reserves.
1.5 million men with some 5k MBT's, 3.5k artillery barrels, 25k IVF/APC/MRAP plus sizable modern navies and air forces.
EU member states spend about a third as much as the US does on defense. It surprise surprise isn't as large or capable as the US. But you don't need to be as big and capable as the US to pose a challenge to russian ambitions.
And that's all it has to do, be big enough and credible enough that the russians don't get any funny ideas about EU member states.
So there wasn't really an incentive to build up defense much more as a collective especially in Western and Southern Europe. The Eastern European certainly felt like they needed to do so and so they did. Because they have the incentive to do so with the russians right axross their borders.

If the US really wanted to they could have given any number of incentives for them to go and build out their armies. But that would have involved giving the Europeans more initiative on the global sage and more independence from the US. And again the US behaves like an empire, it doesn't want for it's allies/vassals to become to independent from them. It wants them in a Goldilocks zone. Strong enough that they are footing most of the cost of their defense but not so much that they can be an issue if they get any funny ideas.
And under that frame of reference the Europeans where perfect. They are paying for 4/5 of what it would take to keep russians contained as much for them selves as for the US. But aren't strong or organized enough to start causing problems for US foreign policy or to challenge it for dominance over the Atlantic.
Even when the invasion happened and the US said it wanted the European to do more, for the Europeans that sounded exactly like all the other times the US had said it and then dropped it when the crisis/war/20years of fucking around in the sandpit is over.
What Trump and Vance did wasnt' convincing allies to spend more like the US wants them to do.
It was convincing the US's allies that the US isn't reliable as an ally anymore and as a consquence they should rearm.

Here's what caused the shift
You have one small problem, the linear flow of time.
Trump and Vance stopped bitching about European domestic politics after the general ellections in Germany, well before the EU defence initiatives.
And again the stick wasn't to stop asking nicly but to make every US ally and partner around the world question it's relieability.


Oh man yeah we wouldn't want Europe to allow hostile foreign powers to set up operations bases in Europe

I'd dare say that is a major difference between the Chinese sneaking in some police / economic development and say hosting some Chinese attack submarines in Brest and having them take part in exercises with the French and Spanish navies.
That being said there where and probably still are Chinese overseas police in the US right now. Those places don't work with the official aproval of their "host" gouvernemnts but by flying under the radar.
As for economic coperation. The US has more trade with china than the Europeans do.
That all being said why shouldn't European countries work with the Chinese in some degree?
China isn't their avisary and the US under the Trump regime doesn't seem to care about russia being their primary advisary.
The US does it as well, even funding gain of function research in a lab with ties to the PLA's chemical and biological warfare division.
It imposes sanction and export restrictions when the US asks them to do so.
So in shot it doesn't so anything more than the US does when it comes to China.


As for the energy issue, yes. Europe need russian energy, there simply aren't any large providers with the capacity to replace them at a reasonable price.
Europe isn't blessed with the kind of energy reserves they'd need to be self sufficient. Certainly not in the short term.
IF this is a major issue for the US they are free to try and secure more non russian hydrocarbons for them. Like they have been for decades.
for instance try and resolveing the Marrokan/Algerian border issue that is holding back further development of it's gas fields.
The same with several proposed pipeline to connect the middle east with Europe.
God know that the Europeans have been trying for decades.
Take your pick from:
Resolveing the Marrokan/Algerian border issue that is holding back further development of it's gas fields.
The Turks insisting on any pipelines going trough the bit of Turkey that got wreck by an earthquake just so they can tax it and a EEZ dispute with the Greeks.
The Syrians: the French getting cock blocked by both the russians and US when they tried then the civil war happening.
Iraq going to absolute shit for some completly inexplicable reason.
Iran being completely off the table due to US sanctions.
Isreal blocking up any potential southern routes, provided you can build a pipeline over the arabian desert to even get there.
Geography simply doesn't favor Europe when it comes to energy.

While entirely correct to those who bother to pay attention to the nitty gritty details of how the world really works. To the average Joe Blow who does the 9 to 5, comes home to get shit face, grill and maybe fuck the spouse or other. They're not going to pay attention to any of that and gone by whatever the talking heads tell them. So when they see no tangible, physical returns on the taxes they pay to "defend" other countries, those countries REEEing at the suggestion maybe they should help with their defense. Fellow Americans being deployed, injured and killed keeping the oil flowing and the Muslims getting rich without doing anything other than letting Americans put military bases in their countries. Oh yes the average American John and Jane smuck are gonna turn fuck the world isolationist eventually and that eventuality is here.
You are right that to the average American this looks like a shit deal.
The cost of it is very easy to imagine and put a dollar sign on, the benefits to them are very spread out and hard to point to.
I'd like to make an analogy with the Roman grain dole.
When it was first handed out is was a clear sign of the benefit the empire brought it's citizens. But when you keep getting it generation after generation it's just a part of life. It has lost all value to Janius Ictus until it's gone.
That is why if the elite running the society is competent they make sure to keep it going even if it's not popular.
That being said I hope the US stay strong in it's possition as hegemon and the dollar stays on as the global reserve currency.
Neighter of those will change without wrecking the world economy. And I've lived trough one recession to many to want to go trough that again.
Aside from ofc wishing our American friends and fellow shitposters all the best. If furries don't have tens of thousands of dollars to blow on stupid shit who else are we going to laugh at?
 
When it was first handed out is was a clear sign of the benefit the empire brought it's citizens. But when you keep getting it generation after generation it's just a part of life. It has lost all value to Janius Ictus until it's gone.
The dole got more generous over time. First it was grain the recipients had to mill and bake themselves, then it was flour ground for them by Roman government mills that they had to bake, and finally it was handouts of bread (and more!) baked by government bakeries.
 
If the russians didn't think that that Europe doesn't pose a military threat, why didn't the russians go for Finland instead of Ukraine?
USSR under the rule of Stalin (Russia's "absolute peak") couldn't fully take Finland. USSR could reach Berlin but it never reached Helsinki, even though it was fully intent on annexing as former tsarist Russia territory as it did with the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldovia. For modern Russia to invade Finland (pre-NATO membership) would be the equivalent of USA deciding that the ideal course of action to weaken China is to invade Vietnam again. It would be an incredibly difficult decision to push since nobody wants to be stuck fighting a guerilla war... with the country they've lost doing so.

Above all else, Ukraine holds a much higher Russian minority population, that happen to be present on land with substantially more valuable resources (oil, gas, rock minerals, fertile land, etc.). Since that Russian minority population happened to be discontented with the Ukrainian government, it gave an easy casus belli and a solid return on investment for instigating military conflict. While any Russian minorities that are present in Finland are not only smaller in number, but they are satisfied at the state of things. Finland does possess valuable natural resources, but not to the same extent as Ukraine. Also, it doesn't hold any sort of warm-water port, that could be used to prop up naval trade and military.

Frankly, a true easy pick for an invasion would probably be Kazakhstan, a country that also possesses a sizable Russian population and lots of natural resources, but is almost completely isolated from the west, down to the fact that it is majority Sunni Muslim. Geographically it's mostly flat desert and savannah, making it ideal for blitzkrieging with tanks and planes.
 
USSR under the rule of Stalin (Russia's "absolute peak")
The USSR's absolute peak was under Khrushchev, there was a genuine economic boom in the USSR and the Warsaw Pact during the 1953-1970* period that in no small part led to the incredible wins in the Space Race. Guess who transferred Crimea to Ukraine?

My beloved waifu, the Russian solzhenitsyn-hating tankie here might disagree with me on this but it's true.

You can see it in the culture and architecture, all the Soviet brands have packaging and imagery from the 50s-60s and all the buildings are all Modernist but it all stagnated after the Prague Spring. As incredible as it might be to believe seeing the Warsaw Pact in the 80s the alliance actually did make products that were internationally competitive with the West.

*Yes I know Khrushchev "resigned" in 1964, it took time for the stagnation to set in.
 
As incredible as it might be to believe seeing the Warsaw Pact in the 80s the alliance actually did make products that were internationally competitive with the West.
My dentist's old building had a window-mounted air conditioner from around the tail of that period. Still working just fine all the way up to circa 2014. It was brown. Very, very brown, as was the style at the time.
 
If the russians didn't think that that Europe doesn't pose a military threat, why didn't the russians go for Finland instead of Ukraine?
To add to @Skylavijas points:
Because they had no claim on Finland, and the small parts they might be able to manufacture one over have limited economic value unlike Ukraine.

Finland also didn't have its military and political apparatus completely coopted by Russian agents nor spend the time from 1991 to 2014 as a Moscow puppet. Moscow didn't have a separatist faction they spent a decade training and supplying to give them a head start on an invasion.

War planners might as also remembered the Winter War and that shit not going to plan.

Russia probably would have gone for Germany except they don't have a land border with them.
Inb4 Kaliningrad

If the US really wanted to they could have given any number of incentives for them to go and build out their armies.
Why should a foreign power have to incentivize a nation to be able to defend itself?

You have one small problem, the linear flow of time.
Trump and Vance stopped bitching about European domestic politics after the general ellections in Germany, well before the EU defence initiatives.
And again the stick wasn't to stop asking nicly but to make every US ally and partner around the world question it's relieability.
EU Commission announced plan on 3/4

German Elections were on 2/23. That's less than two weeks and plenty of time for the initiative to be committed to privately before announced publicly. And Trump was still shitting on EU/NATO, just not as hard.
So try again.

I'd dare say that is a major difference between the Chinese sneaking in some police / economic development and say hosting some Chinese attack submarines in Brest and having them take part in exercises with the French and Spanish navies.
that's fair but don't act like they aren't already getting into bed with China which again: goes against the interests of their primary protector and increases the costs of that protection.
Europe can't continue to have worthless militaries and try to buck the US. They need to pick a master. And it looks like they are going Option C: Putin. Fuck it. Anythign is better than having to defend our borders and not import violent muslims and africans.

Europe isn't blessed with the kind of energy reserves they'd need to be self sufficient. Certainly not in the short term.
IF this is a major issue for the US they are free to try and secure more non russian hydrocarbons for them. Like they have been for decades.
It is. The North sea is rotten with gas & oil, but it is Non-green and also racist and ablist to exploit it. "Being too retarded to not sell yourself to Russia because oil drilling is icky" is not a US problem except the Eurograsshoppers have turned it into one.

Also Germany dragged their feet on approval an opening of LNG port facilities to process LNG from the US until after invasion, plus a million other little EU slights to the US as they continued to funnel money to Russia which has now manifested as weapons on the battlefield. And one of the leaders who did said foot-dragging works for Gazprom now.

The USSR's absolute peak was under Khrushchev, there was a genuine economic boom in the USSR and the Warsaw Pact during the 1953-1970* period that in no small part led to the incredible wins in the Space Race. Guess who transferred Crimea to Ukraine?

My beloved waifu, the Russian solzhenitsyn-hating tankie here might disagree with me on this but it's true.

You can see it in the culture and architecture, all the Soviet brands have packaging and imagery from the 50s-60s and all the buildings are all Modernist but it all stagnated after the Prague Spring. As incredible as it might be to believe seeing the Warsaw Pact in the 80s the alliance actually did make products that were internationally competitive with the West.

*Yes I know Khrushchev "resigned" in 1964, it took time for the stagnation to set in.
Tl;dr: the 1950/60s were when reality caught up to the designs they stole from the Nazis & the equipment they stole from the Reich had been replicated. The following stagnation and collapse in the 1970s was when no further development on the looted tech happened and it started to age out into irrevelance as integrated mircochips and other things German scientists never dreamed of became a thing.

Also the USSR refusing to engage in global economics and only (effectively) bartering held back their exports. Dealing with this problem resulted in hilarious events such as
Pepsico temporarily becoming the world's 6th largest navy
 
My dentist's old building had a window-mounted air conditioner from around the tail of that period. Still working just fine all the way up to circa 2014. It was brown. Very, very brown, as was the style at the time.
At least it's not that awful green paint from the Stalin era. That stuff gives me the horribles.

Tl;dr: the 1950/60s were when reality caught up to the designs they stole from the Nazis & the equipment they stole from the Reich had been replicated. The following stagnation and collapse in the 1970s was when no further development on the looted tech happened and it started to age out into irrevelance as integrated mircochips and other things German scientists never dreamed of became a thing.
There was real innovation during that era, especially after the retarded Stalinist position on cybernetics was abandoned. The first integrated circuit in the USSR was produced independently in 1962 and for a while investment in computer technology was encouraged.

The GDR under Ulbricht attempted to specialize in electronics, computers, precision manufacturing and other specialized industries for export to the FRG to integrate their economies closer. It worked in some areas (e.g. Zeiss) but there was no chance a country as tiny as the GDR without the resources to support its industries could ever be competitive on the global stage.
 
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Latest Covert Cabal satellite imagery of decaying Russia storage bases video; Russia has apparently nearly run out of tanks in storage:
"With Virtually Every Russian Ground Forces Base Empty, Can They Defend The Motherland?", May 20, 2025:
It's also important to remember that in terms of these large storage yards the level of decay of equipment can be quite severe and almost always the best preserved equipment gets used first.
 
USSR under the rule of Stalin (Russia's "absolute peak") couldn't fully take Finland. USSR could reach Berlin but it never reached Helsinki, even though it was fully intent on annexing as former tsarist Russia territory as it did with the Baltics, Ukraine and Moldovia. For modern Russia to invade Finland (pre-NATO membership) would be the equivalent of USA deciding that the ideal course of action to weaken China is to invade Vietnam again. It would be an incredibly difficult decision to push since nobody wants to be stuck fighting a guerilla war... with the country they've lost doing so.

Above all else, Ukraine holds a much higher Russian minority population, that happen to be present on land with substantially more valuable resources (oil, gas, rock minerals, fertile land, etc.). Since that Russian minority population happened to be discontented with the Ukrainian government, it gave an easy casus belli and a solid return on investment for instigating military conflict. While any Russian minorities that are present in Finland are not only smaller in number, but they are satisfied at the state of things. Finland does possess valuable natural resources, but not to the same extent as Ukraine. Also, it doesn't hold any sort of warm-water port, that could be used to prop up naval trade and military.

Frankly, a true easy pick for an invasion would probably be Kazakhstan, a country that also possesses a sizable Russian population and lots of natural resources, but is almost completely isolated from the west, down to the fact that it is majority Sunni Muslim. Geographically it's mostly flat desert and savannah, making it ideal for blitzkrieging with tanks and planes.
The Kazakh dictator Tokayev was saved from an internal heave by Putin and the loyal portion of the CSTO just before invading Ukraine, which then departed promptly (no abuse of intervention), yet since then relations have been wary. Tokayev brusquely refused a Russian honor at a St Petersburg's eco summit, mocked Donbabwe etc. and on another occasion pushed back at a meeting with Putin who admired how Russified Kazakhstan was by refuting his claim in Kazakh. There was even humanitarian aid to Ukraine and the stance of the Kazakh state is neutral. It's north is long Russified thanks to migration that started in the Tsarist era to operate textile mills and other manufactories of the rapidly industrialising Empire. Surely there must be some sort of doh moment in the court of Putin. Kazakh state culture is of Soviet vintage and there's not as much of an historical feud, altho Stalin was cruel to the herdsmen of Kazakhstan during Collectivization. Tokayev went to the Victory Day jamboree, but the Ukraine quagmire is being used to create a clear safe space between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.
 
The USSR's absolute peak was under Khrushchev, there was a genuine economic boom in the USSR and the Warsaw Pact during the 1953-1970* period that in no small part led to the incredible wins in the Space Race. Guess who transferred Crimea to Ukraine?

My beloved waifu, the Russian solzhenitsyn-hating tankie here might disagree with me on this but it's true.

You can see it in the culture and architecture, all the Soviet brands have packaging and imagery from the 50s-60s and all the buildings are all Modernist but it all stagnated after the Prague Spring. As incredible as it might be to believe seeing the Warsaw Pact in the 80s the alliance actually did make products that were internationally competitive with the West.

*Yes I know Khrushchev "resigned" in 1964, it took time for the stagnation to set in.
I don't disagree with that, it is why I put "Russia's peak" in quotation marks, as that's the time period that gets the most glamorized in the context of the Ukraine war.

It's crazy to think about, but back in the 60s North Korea was more developed than South Korea, which was under dictatorship on par with the Kims, Taiwan was a sweatshop for toy manufacturing and Singapore had 70% of it's population living in slums. There was a short window of time where Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia had substantially higher standard of living than the upcoming eastern tigers, while USSR itself had the world's 2nd largest economy, second only to the US and it built rockets and satellites into space while Japan was still stuck figuring out car manufacturing.

I said it before, but it is ironic how both American boomers and Russian vatniks heavily glamorize the same mid 20th century post-war era.
 
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