According to a report published Doron Kadosh, Israeli intelligence provided the political leadership with a stark warning ahead of its recent operation: Iran is only weeks away from assembling a nuclear bomb, should it choose to do so.
This assessment was based on what officials called "golden information"—a secret intelligence breakthrough that exposed a highly compartmentalized Iranian program focused on developing the critical "weapons group" component of a nuclear bomb.
While Iran already possesses enough enriched uranium for roughly 15 bombs, the weapons group, necessary for weaponization, had long remained hidden. Israeli intelligence uncovered that Iran began assembling elite scientific teams in late 2023, shortly after Hamas’ October 7 attack, each tasked with building parts of the weapons system. These efforts reached the experimental phase in recent months, with successful tests confirming Iran’s rapid technical progress.
Israeli analysts concluded that Iran is now a decision away from being able to assemble a functional nuclear weapon. Intelligence officials warned that Iran’s true capabilities might be even further along than known. This alarming assessment directly influenced Israel's decision to launch a preemptive military strike to prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold.