HAPPENING NOW:
Total chaos in Tehran. Stores are being emptied.
# FARS: THERE WERE TWO EXPLOSIONS IN MASHHAD, ONE AT THE AIRPORT AND ONE IN THE AREA OF 17TH SHAHRIVAR STREET
Iran likely faces quite the missile dilemma at this stage.
It probably retains enough MRBMs for at least 2-4 additional large-scale salvos against Israel, but its arsenal will inevitably be depleted. This forces Tehran to conserve munitions, particularly with an eye toward future contingencies.
At the same time, its missile capabilities are under continuous threat from Israeli airpower and, to a lesser extent, SOF on the ground.
This means the longer the conflict continues, the greater the risk that Iran loses the ability to conduct large-scale salvos at all, especially given that Israel shows no intention of letting up.