I do wonder if Israel are aiming to achieve regime collapse, or are just hoping to pressure Iran into ending their nuclear program entirely.
My personal list of theories (not in particular order):
1. To keep Iran angry: Angry Iran is a threat -> a threat towards Israel justifies substantial aid payments -> an Iran tamed by America isn't a threat at all (cessation of nuclear stuff + proxy funding) -> ergo keep Iran (and its people) angry to keep them a threat. (Ending Iranian nuclear capabilities - if such capabilities are genuine - would also be a nice bonus)
2. Regime collapse: Iran is a threat under current Ayatollah -> collapsing regime stops them being a threat -> ergo Israel has one fewer threat in the region (Americans would also be interested in removing them for security reasons too and giving Russia/China one less ally in Middle East) (Also gives Israel a "moral" motive/incentive to launch these strikes to begin with, earnest or cynical motivations up to you)
3. Bibi politicking: Netanyahu's position is tenuous -> people being afraid is a good way to stop people rocking the boat electorally -> looming threat of Iran helps his electoral chances in 2026 / alternatively ending the Iranian threat will do the same thing too, "Oy gevalt, I beat Iran, Hamas,
and Hezbollah!
Who the fuck are you? No talent!" (Similar to a president/party involving themselves in a war or initiating one for entirely selfish reasons. Has precedent in other countries, so Israel shouldn't be immune.)
4. USA using Israel as a beat stick/proxy: Israel is local power without the best reputation in the region -> America is trying to make inroads into Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar -> discover
credible evidence that Iran is close to nuclear weapons capability, but attacking within the window of negotiation (60 day window Trump spoke about) is bad optics and risks harming progress made thus far -> instead facilitate and arm Israel to carry out such a mission without staining your own reputation in the process, whilst also keeping the window open for Iranian negotiation in the future. Also lets you take out multiple targets of strategic value and generally weaken one of the more openly hostile powers in the region.
5. Simple: Israel discovered Iranian nuclear capabilities were within unacceptable timeframe of completion -> attacked to further stretch out this window if not cripple it entirely
Could be solely one or a mix of a couple or all IMO. If it fizzles out I'm inclined to combine 1 and 3 and 5 to varying degrees of intensity.
**IRANIAN MEDIA REPORTED THAT JUDICIAL AND LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN THE PROVINCES OF CHAHARMAHAL AND BAKHTIARI, KERMAN, ALBORZ, TEHRAN, AND ISFAHAN ARRESTED CITIZENS FOR SUPPORTING ISRAEL**
