2025 Israel vs Iran War

[he who has thus come/gone]

Syria

Qatari

KSA

UAE

Turkey

Jordan

Turkey is going the opposite way, if anything. It's notable that there's a slight alignment in Syria, but that's more of a strange bedfellows moment than any real movement towards Israel. Turkey is becoming more Islamist, especially as the secular intelligentsia drain out of the country, go to school in the west, and generally stay there.

Too early to tell with Syria. Israel could do more to get on their good side, but they went very aggressive to create a cordon on the other side of the Golan and kept bombing all the old munitions which could endanger Israel.

Qatar, KSA, UAE are all interested in making money with Trump, so I'll give you those to some extent. Qatar still peddles extreme anti-Israel influence in the west, though.

Jordan is just trying to keep their gibs from America and stay out of the line of fire, but nothing really more.

I think every country is more or less glad for Iran to be kneecapped and will only offer boilerplate protestations about the war. But even in the best case scenario, they wouldn't suddenly try and be friends with Israel. Muslims will still hate Jews.

 

[Jex]

Is there a definitive line between UAV and drone?

 

[draggs]

Turkey is going the opposite way, if anything.

Erdogan yelled a bunch about Gaza then got back to working with Israel to get rid of Assad. Instead of yelling at Israel over attacking Iran he's been talking like an effete European politician about how dangerous the situation is and he doesn't want refugees and we must return to dialogue blah blah blah. Erdogan likes to yell about the Jews sometimes but actually squaring up to them? He works with them. He isn't going to do anything

 

[Flabba Wabba Jabba]

Both sides getting hit hard and coping in their own way, I wonder how history gonna write this war years from now on.

I wouldn't be calling it a war until there's actual ground troops shooting at each other. They've been firing missiles at each other since the 50s (not just Iran either of course).

It is funny watching the Polish proverb come into effect so beautifully well, “the Jew cries out in pain as he strikes you”

Is there a definitive line between UAV and drone?

Not really, but the terminology implies different vehicles. To my understanding, UAV means larger "drones" like the MQ-9 Reaper or fixed-wing aircraft, whereas drone implies smaller aircraft like your FPV drones that one man can carry.

 

[Vertigo]

The missile that dropped on Haifa

 

[Smashed & Slamed]

do the 2.5 (i think) and 4.3 earthquakes line up with underground nuclear detonations of any kind as a source of the tremors? i am unfamiliar with these things, and i don't trust llms to give me good info.

The numbers can fit that range but the real hint would be a graph showing the after shocks. Man made incidents don't produce pronounced aftershocks.
Also 4.3 is not that big, I slept through a 4.3.

 

[Dirty Harry]

I don't think it will happen but the very best case scenario is that the Ayatollah flees Iran for asylum in Russia, moderates make it into a real Republic and while it will never be pro-Israel, it would stop the madness. But agree with the assessment of some other Kiwifarmers here, Iran is isolated in very possible case.

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

Video received: "Terrible explosions, 90 kilometers from Tehran-Qom road"It is related to the same hour that the National Seismological Center announced a magnitude 2.5 earthquake near the nuclear facility

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

do the 2.5 (i think) and 4.3 earthquakes line up with underground nuclear detonations of any kind as a source of the tremors? i am unfamiliar with these things, and i don't trust llms to give me good info.

On September 2, North Korea conducted its sixth underground nuclear weapons test at Mount Mantap. The earthquake tremor measured 6.3 on the Richter scale, leading experts to conclude that the test was in the range of 50 to 140 kilotons of TNT. A second smaller tremor followed, suggesting cratering at the site. Satellite photos show multiple landslides on Mount Mantap, causing observers to speculate about the possibility of environmental contamination. If the test did “vent,” it may be possible to ascertain whether it was a true two-stage thermonuclear weapon.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/latest-north-korean-nuclear-test

If you trust CSIS, then a relatively small modern nuclear weapon tested underground by North Korea caused pretty strong readings.

 

[Smashed & Slamed]

There'd be no reason for Iran to set off underground nuclear explosions when if it did have bombs the second Israel found out it would probably make Iran glow. Iran would try to get any bombs they had to Israel to blow them up there instead of doing it underground in Whateverfuck province

Even if Iran had the bomb do they have a launch vehicle capable of carrying it and deploying it right.
Cause you can't just lob another ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. You would just have a 1/10 chance of the bomb deploying correctly. What would you even do, airburst it so high the AA missiles can't connect, would that even do anything?

 

[Catch The Rainbow]

Do not travel on the Tehran-Qom route until the status of the Fordow explosion is clarified. The possibility of radioactive material settling is not remote if a missile strikes and subsequently damages the tanks.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/latest-north-korean-nuclear-test

If you trust CSIS, then a relatively small modern nuclear weapon tested underground by North Kora caused pretty strong readings.

Earthquake is on a natural fault line, doubtful its a nuke

 

[JCVD_Fan]

Iran is in deep trouble because their anti-Israel alliance didn't declare war on Israel after Hamas attacked them. If Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, Assad and Iran all attacked at once, Israel would at least be in a military quagmire and depending on the US to bail them out. Hezbollah's reluctance to join Hamas led to Israel being able to focus all their strength against Gaza and then take out Hezbollah on their own initiative, which led to Assad losing control of Syria after Hezbollah and Russia couldn't help them and now no one is meaningfully standing between Israel and their plans to bomb Iran.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The missile that dropped on Haifa
View attachment 7509000

I think he probably pissed and shit himself. And I would not blame him for it in the slightest. Holy shit that man is lucky to be alive. Also Kino footage.

 

[Margo Martindale]

Hussein Yazdanpanah, leader of the separatist Kurdistan Freedom Party, calls on Kurdish youth to strike Iranian regime targets and avenge the “martyrs of Kurdistan.”
View attachment 7508110

Source

He looks like a middle eastern Stalin

 

[Dawdler]

Syria, Qatari, KSA, UAE, Turkey, Jordan

You named all shitholes. Congrats.

 

[draggs]

Even if Iran had the bomb do they have a launch vehicle capable of carrying it and deploying it right.
Cause you can't just lob another ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. You would just have a 1/10 chance of the bomb deploying correctly. What would you even do, airburst it so high the AA missiles can't connect, would that even do anything?

Nah there's no point ABMs can't reach that would also do big damage on the ground if you set the nuke to explode at that altitude

 

[he who has thus come/gone]

Do not travel on the Tehran-Qom route until the status of the Fordow explosion is clarified. The possibility of radioactive material settling is not remote if a missile strikes and subsequently damages the tanks.


Earthquake is on a natural fault line, doubtful its a nuke

It would say a lot about what Iran's leaders are thinking if, in the midst of Israeli attacks, they were going all-in on testing and finalizing a nuclear weapon. I doubt it's anything more than normal fault line activity, but it's a strong cope narrative for those cheering on Iran to claim they're this close to nuking Tel Aviv.

 

[Dawdler]

do the 2.5 (i think) and 4.3 earthquakes line up with underground nuclear detonations of any kind as a source of the tremors? i am unfamiliar with these things, and i don't trust llms to give me good info.

On 9 October 2006, North Korea’s KCNA reported that the country had “successfully conducted a nuclear test” at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility. The test used a horizontal-shaft, and the shock is estimated to be magnitude 4.3. The U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) estimated the yield at less than one kiloton. The test took place in the East Tunnel approximately 1 km NE from the entrance. The overburden is estimated at 310 m.

its not that complicated, the only complicated part is getting the materials to build the centrifuges, need to smuggle that stuff from the West or Japan, but that can be done.

Iran recalculated that part and decided to use steel, same as in soviet design. The yield from carbon fiber material was deemed not sufficient enough, even tho it improves separation, to go ahead with such a design. Better to make a domestic reliable design. KISS

The missile that dropped on Haifa

That's an excellent shot. Honestly I would never imagine to see footage like this.
The angle of REV indicates that it hit a building behind the man and he was shielded by the building. Very very lucky.

 

[draggs]

Maybe Israel can't completely destroy Fordow, but it can bomb the shit out of the mountain and make it hard to get anything into or out of there. It's also not exactly in the middle of a built up area, it's in a mountainous wilderness 20 miles north of Qom and the closest little town is like 10 miles to the southwest of it, digging tunnels miles long to get stuff in and out doesn't work that well because then Israel sees trucks and shit popping up in the middle of nowhere around Fordow and goes hmmmmmm

 

[Smashed & Slamed]

Maybe Israel can't completely destroy Fordow, but it can bomb the shit out of the mountain and make it hard to get anything into or out of there. It's also not exactly in the middle of a built up area, digging tunnels kilometers long to get stuff in and out doesn't work that well because then Israel sees trucks and shit popping up in the middle of nowhere around Fordow and goes hmmmmmm

With how inept Iranian AA has been why not do a commando raid?